3. Phases of the Project
Phase 1 Phase 2
Data analysis Consensus process
Predictors of MTX Determinants of high
initiation probability of RA
Phase 3
Integration of 1 and 2
Increase feasibility
Final Criteria
5. Phase 1: Patients and Methods
âą Patients â EARLY ARTHRITIS COHORTS
â 3115 patients from 9 cohorts
â Inflammatory arthritis (no other definite diagnosis) of
<3 years
â No previous DMARD/MTX treatment
âą Methods â PREDICTORS OF MTX TREATMENT
â Step 1: Univariate regression analysis of all possible
variables
â Step 2: Principal component analysis: identify themes
â Step 3: Multivariate regression analysis with all
relevant themes
6. Phase 1: Three Analytic Steps
Identify significant
variables at baseline
Univariate Regression Analysis
Gold standard: MTX
STEP 1 treatment at one year
Identify sets of
Principal Component Analysis variables representing
the same âthemeâ
STEP 2
Identify independent
Multivariate regression Analysis effects of variables and
their relative contribution
STEP 3 (âweightâ)
9. Phase 1: Results
Variable Comparison P OR (95% CI) Weight
Swollen MCP Pres vs. abs 0.003 1.46 (1.14 to 1.88) 1.5
Swollen PIP Pres vs. abs 0.001 1.51 (1.19 to 1.91) 1.5
Swollen wrist Pres vs. abs <0.001 1.61 (1.28 to 2.02) 1.5
Hand tenderness Pres vs. abs <0.001 1.80 (1.33 to 2.44) 2
Mod. vs. normal 0.172 1.24 (0.91 to 1.70) 1
Acute phase
High vs. normal 0.001 1.68 (1.23 to 2.28) 2
Mod. vs. normal <0.001 2.22 (1.81 to 3.28) 2
Serology
High vs. normal <0.001 3.85 (2.96 to 5.00) 4
10. Phase 1: Conclusion
âą Swelling of small joint regions (PIP, MCP, wrist) has
independent effect
âą Tenderness might be also be considered as âjoint
involvementâ
âą Symmetrical involvement does not seem to have a
significant incremental effect over unilateral involvement
âą Abnormal acute phase response has a considerable effect
âą Serology has a considerable effect, and shows a âdose-
responseâ relationship of titres
11. Phases of the Project
Phase 1 Phase 2
Data analysis Consensus process
Predictors of MTX Determinants of high
initiation probability of RA
Phase 3
Integration of 1 and 2
Increase feasibility
Final Criteria
13. Phase 2: Methods
âą Ranking of patient profiles by experts for their
probability to develop RA
âą Evidence based discussion on discrepancies in the
ranking
âą Specifying target population
âą Developing positive and negative determinants for risk
of RA (informed by Phase 1 data)
âą Grouping these determinants into domains and
categories
âą Weighting of each category using decision analytic
software
15. Phase 2: Overview
Expert panel
Submit case scenarios of early
undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis
Rank the case scenarios on
probability of developing
persistent erosive RA
16. Phase 2: Overview
Expert panel
Submit case scenarios of early
undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis
Rank the case scenarios on
probability of developing
persistent erosive RA
Discussion on reasons for
Phase 1 data
discordance among physicians
+ Positive factors - Negative factors
Specify target population
17. Phase 2: Overview
Expert panel
Submit case scenarios of early
undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis
Rank the case scenarios on
probability of developing
persistent erosive RA
Discussion on reasons for
Phase 1 data
discordance among physicians
+ Positive factors - Negative factors
Specify target population
Identifying domains and categories
18. Phase 2: Overview
Expert panel
Submit case scenarios of early
undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis
Rank the case scenarios on
probability of developing
persistent erosive RA
Discussion on reasons for Phase 1 data
discordance among physicians
+ Positive factors
- Negative factors
Specify target population
Identifying domains and categories
Deriving weights
Tentative Criteria
20. Phases of the Project
Phase 1 Phase 2
Data analysis Consensus process
Predictors of MTX Determinants of high
initiation probability of RA
Phase 3
Integration of 1 and 2
Increase feasibility
Final Criteria
26. Target Population of the Criteria
Two requirements:
(1) Patient with at least one joint with definite clinical
synovitis (swelling)
(2) Synovitis is not better explained by âanother
diseaseâ
Differential diagnoses differ in patients with different presentations.
If unclear about the relevant differentials, an expert rheumatologist
should be consulted.
27. 2010 ACR/EULAR
Classification Criteria for RA
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
SEROLOGY (0-3)
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1)
28. 2010 ACR/EULAR
Classification Criteria for RA
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5
SEROLOGY (0-3)
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1)
29. 2010 ACR/EULAR
Classification Criteria for RA
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5
SEROLOGY (0-3)
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1)
30. 2010 ACR/EULAR
Classification Criteria for RA
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5
SEROLOGY (0-3)
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
<6 weeks 0
â„6 weeks 1
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1)
31. 2010 ACR/EULAR
Classification Criteria for RA
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
1 large joint 0
â„6 = definite RA
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5 What if the score is <6?
SEROLOGY (0-3)
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0 Patient might fulfill the criteria
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3 Prospectively over time
(cumulatively)
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
<6 weeks 0
Retrospectively if data on all
â„6 weeks 1
four domains have been
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1) adequately recorded in the past
Normal CRP AND normal ESR 0
Abnormal CRP OR abnormal ESR 1
32. Classification vs. Diagnosis
âą We donât have diagnostic criteria for RA
âą Typically in rheumatic diseases, criteria are labeled as
âclassificationâ criteria
â These are helpful in defining homogeneous treatment
populations for study purposes
âą A clinical âdiagnosisâ has to be established by the
physician (rheumatologist)
â It includes many more aspects than can be included in
formal criteria
â Formal classification criteria might be a guide to establish a
clinical diagnosis
33. Classification vs. Diagnosis
Classification for studies Clinical Diagnosis
Disease
No disease
Target Population Target Population
Usually well defined, smaller Less well defined, larger
34. Algorithm to Classification of RA Including
Radiographs
â„1 swollen joint,
â„6/10 on the
which is not best explained by Yes
scoring system?
Yes RA
another disease?
an
No Document result of
the scoring system
Longstanding
inactive disease Yes
suspected?
Yes
No Perform radiographic
No assessment
Radiographs
Yes Erosions typical for
already available
RA present?
No No
Not RA
35. Summary:
Radiographic Assessment
WHEN TO PERFORM HOW TO USE
GENERAL PRINCIPLES âą The presence of typical erosions allow
classification of RA even without
âąRadiographs are not required in the fulfillment of the scoring system
ACR/EULAR 2010 classification criteria
âą The scoring result should nevertheless be
âąRadiographs should not be taken for the
documented in clinical studies/trials
mere purpose of classification
EXCEPTIONS âą Currently, there is no exact definition of
âtypical erosionsâ
1.Radiographs should be taken in the
unclassified patient in whom longstanding âą There is work in progress to develop the
inactive disease is suspected (likely failed respective definitions
classification falsely)
2.If radiographs are already available in an
early arthritis patient, their information can be
used for classification purposes.
(e.g., radiographs taken by GP before referral)
37. Definitions
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
Definition of âJOINT INVOLVEMENTâ
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3
- Any swollen or tender joint (excluding DIP
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5
of hand and feet, 1st MTP, 1st CMC)
SEROLOGY (0-3)
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0 - Additional evidence from MRI / US
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2 may be used for confirmation of the
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3 clinical findings
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
<6 weeks 0
â„6 weeks 1
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1)
Normal CRP AND normal ESR 0
Abnormal CRP OR abnormal ESR 1
â„6 = definite RA
38. Definitions
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5
Definition of âSMALL JOINTâ
SEROLOGY (0-3)
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0 MCP, PIP, MTP 2-5, thumb IP, wrist
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3 NOT: DIP, 1st CMC, 1st MTP
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
<6 weeks 0
â„6 weeks 1
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1)
Normal CRP AND normal ESR 0
Abnormal CRP OR abnormal ESR 1
â„6 = definite RA
39. Definitions
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3 Definition of âLARGE JOINTâ
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5
Shoulder, elbow, hip, knee, ankles
SEROLOGY (0-3)
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
<6 weeks 0
â„6 weeks 1
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1)
Normal CRP AND normal ESR 0
Abnormal CRP OR abnormal ESR 1
â„6 = definite RA
40. Definitions
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5 Definition of â>10 JOINTSâ
SEROLOGY (0-3)
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0
- At least one small joint
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
- Additional joints include:
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3
temporomandibular,
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
<6 weeks 0
sternoclavicular,
â„6 weeks 1 acromioclavicular, and
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1) others (reasonably expected in RA)
Normal CRP AND normal ESR 0
Abnormal CRP OR abnormal ESR 1
â„6 = definite RA
41. Definitions
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3 Definition of âSEROLOGYâ
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5
Negative: â€ULN (for the respective lab)
SEROLOGY (0-3)
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0 Low positive: >ULN but â€3xULN
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3 High positive: >3xULN
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
<6 weeks 0
â„6 weeks 1
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1)
Normal CRP AND normal ESR 0
Abnormal CRP OR abnormal ESR 1
â„6 = definite RA
42. Definitions
JOINT DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3
Definition of âSYMPTOM DURATIONâ
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5 Refers to the patientâs self-report on the maximum
SEROLOGY (0-3) duration of signs and symptoms of any joint that is
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0 clinically involved at the time of assessment.
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
<6 weeks 0
â„6 weeks 1
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1)
Normal CRP AND normal ESR 0
Abnormal CRP OR abnormal ESR 1
â„6 = definite RA
43. Algorithm for Classification
START >10 joints Branch 1
(eligible patient)
Yes
No
4-10 small joints Branch 2
Yes
No
1-3 small joints Branch 3
Yes
No
2-10 large joints
Yes
Branch 4
No
RA
44. Branch #1: Polyarticular Presentation
Branch #1 Serology:
â„10 joints Low/high positive?
No
Yes
Duration:
â„6 weeks?
No Yes
APR: Abnormal?
No Yes
RA RA
45. Branch #2: Presentation with
Oligo/Polyarticular Small Joints
Branch #2 Serology:
4-10 small joints high positive?
No
Serology:
low positive?
Yes
Yes
No Duration:
â„6 weeks?
Yes
No
APR:
RA Abnormal? Yes RA
46. Branch #3: Presentation with
Mono/Oligoarticular Small Joints
Branch #3 Serology:
1-3 small joints High positive?
No
Yes
Serology:
Low positive?
Yes
No
Duration: Duration:
â„6 weeks? â„6 weeks?
No
No
Yes Yes
APR:
RA No Yes RA
abnormal?
47. Branch #3: Presentation with
Oligo/Polyarticular Large Joints
Branch #4 Serology: ++
2-10 large joints
Yes
No Duration: â„6
weeks
No Yes
APR:
RA No
Abnormal
Yes RA
48. START >10 joints (at least
(eligible patient) one small joint)
Rheumatoid arthritis
No Yes
No classification of rheumatoid arthritis
4-10 small joints
Serology:
+/++
No Yes
Serology: No Yes
1-3 small joints
++
No Yes
No Yes Duration:
2-10 large Serology: â„6 weeks
(no small) joints ++
Serology:
No Yes +
No Yes
Serology: Duration:
+ â„6 weeks No Yes
Serology: No Yes
++ No Yes
Duration: APR:
No Yes â„6 weeks Abnormal
No Yes Duration:
â„6 weeks
Duration:
â„6 weeks No Yes
No Yes
No Yes
No Yes
APR: APR: APR:
Abnormal Abnormal Abnormal
Yes No Yes No Yes
No
RA RA RA RA RA RA RA RA
49. Example: False Positive Classification
JOINTS DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
CASE SCENARIO
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1 Inflammatory Osteoarthritis
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3 - One clinically inflamed OA joint
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5 (PIP 3 right hand)
SEROLOGY (0-3)
- Tenderness of all DIPs, PIPs,
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
thumb IPs, CMC 1, and knees
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3 - Seronegative
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1)
<6 weeks 0
- Long standing disease
â„6 weeks 1 - Normal acute phase
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1)
Normal CRP AND normal ESR 0
If OA is clinically apparent, then this
Abnormal CRP OR abnormal ESR 1
patient would not be in the target
population of the criteria
â„6 = definite RA
50. Example: False Negative Classification
JOINTS DISTRIBUTION (0-5)
CASE SCENARIO
1 large joint 0
2-10 large joints 1 Early seronegative RA
1-3 small joints (large joints not counted) 2
4-10 small joints (large joints not counted) 3
>10 joints (at least one small joint) 5
- Swollen and tender MCP 1-3 on
both sides
SEROLOGY (0-3)
Negative RF AND negative ACPA 0 - Seronegative
Low positive RF OR low positive ACPA 2
High positive RF OR high positive ACPA 3
- 2 weeks duration
SYMPTOM DURATION (0-1) - Elevated CRP levels
<6 weeks 0
â„6 weeks 1
This patient might fulfill the criteria at a
ACUTE PHASE REACTANTS (0-1) subsequent visit (be classified
Normal CRP AND normal ESR 0 prospectively)
Abnormal CRP OR abnormal ESR 1
â„6 = definite RA
51. Important Notes
âą Criteria are classification criteria NOT diagnostic criteria
â In clinical practice they may inform the physicianâs diagnosis
âą For the purpose of classification, radiographs should only be
performed
â For patients with longstanding inactive (âburnt outâ) disease, who are
NOT yet formally classified or diagnosed, and who would fail to classify
as RA according to the scoring system, given their joint inactivity
â The term âerosions, typical for RAâ still needs to be precisely defined
(size, site, number)
âą No exhaustive list of exclusions is defined
â Differential diagnosis is responsibility of the physician (influenced by
age, gender, population, etc.)
â Limits false positive classification
52. Future Prospects
âą 87-97% of patients started on MTX within one
year were positively classified as RA in
independent cohorts at baseline
âą Formal external validation studies are ongoing
â Comparing proportions fulfilling ACR 1987 and
ACR/EULAR 2010 criteria
â Identifying sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV etc. in
independent settings
53. Summary
âą New classification criteria for RA have been
established by an international task force
âą Criteria are meant to be used for patients with
clinical synovitis in at least one joint
âą The classification criteria are not diagnostic criteria,
but they can inform the diagnosis, which ultimately
has to be made by the rheumatologist
âą Validation in independent cohorts is already ongoing