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INDEPENDENT TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH
                                                                     SECTOR INITIATION  APRIL 2013  DIGITAL MEDIA




TURKISH COFFEE – GET IT WHILE IT’S BREWING


In times of global financial flux and uncertainty, a highly dynamic new market
is evolving for financial and strategic investors looking for the next opportunity:
Turkey. This report provides comprehensive and in-depth insight into the fast
growing Internet and Digital Media markets in Turkey.



A number of factors are converging in Turkey — favorable demographics
(young, prospering and engaged), a developing risk-capital ecosystem, a
reverse brain transfer (Turkish talent returning home from abroad),
widespread mobile penetration, emerging Internet ecosystem and maturing
eCommerce sector, stable government, strong online and offline consumption
habits and more, making Turkey one of the most anticipated markets in the
world.



The promise demonstrated by evolving sector dynamics and vastly changing
entrepreneurial conditions led last year to considerable hype with regards to
investing in Turkey. This enthusiasm in turn boosted a perception somewhat
in advance of reality, stimulating premature expectations.



Now it’s time, for all concerned to come back to Earth. Particularly in regard to
the eCommerce sector, and the hard work called for may be more mundane
than the glittering fanfare. Survival of the fittest is eliminating lagging players
and strengthening the entrepreneurial ecosystem. The young market is in fact
maturing, and early investors now have the kind of opportunity that comes
around only when a particular constellation of conditions prevail.



This report acknowledges and provides context for short-term caution
associated with emerging markets such as this. However, the overall findings
suggest substantial potential in the mid to long-term for the Turkish Internet                                                     ALI DAGLI
                                                                                                                  ali.dagli@gpbullhound.com
market to be a new growth region for entrepreneurs and investors alike.                                                 US: +1 415 412 2015
                                                                                                                  Turkey : +90 532 245 7505

                                                                                                                            DANIEL MAGGS
                                                                                                            daniel.maggs@gpbullhound.com
                                                                                                                  London: +44 207 101 7660


                                    Important disclosures appear at the back of this report
                      GP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK
                       GP Bullhound Inc. is regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”)
GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING




              TABLE OF CONTENTS



               Market Overview ......................................................................................................................2

               Turkey in Context ....................................................................................................................4

               SWOT Analysis ........................................................................................................................5

               Emerging Internet Ecosystem in Turkey ...............................................................................5

               Private Capital Environment ..................................................................................................7

               Digital Media Landscape ........................................................................................................8

               Hot Topics................................................................................................................................9

                                     Three Paths to Success ....................................................................................9
                                     Leadership Position and More Innovation .........................................................9
                                     “Copy Now” and “Sell Fast” Does Not Work ......................................................9
                                     Chicken-and-Egg Paradox ..............................................................................10
                                     Undue Focus on User/Revenue Growth ..........................................................10
                                     Appointing Additional Leadership When Needed ............................................11
                                     One-way Ticket Back Home ............................................................................11
               Selected Sector Overviews ..................................................................................................12

                                     eCommerce .....................................................................................................12
                                     Gaming ............................................................................................................17
                                     Digital Agencies, Online Advertising and Marketing ........................................22
                                     Social Media and Online Content ....................................................................25
               Selected Private Placements................................................................................................ 30

               Selected M&A Transactions .................................................................................................32

               Facebook and Mobile Internet Rankings.............................................................................33

               Company Tree Diagrams by Sector .....................................................................................35




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                                                                        GP Bullhound LLP
GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING




               Market Overview
               Turkey is a country where East and West have always met, diverse cultures co-exist, and a
               dynamic young population is expanding. A quarter of Turkey's 75m people are less than 15
               years old, growing up in the world of Facebook, Twitter, and mobile Internet, and promising a
               stronger future for the Turkish economy and its emerging Internet and Digital Media sectors.
                                             th                    th
               Turkey is the world's 15 , and Europe's 6 , biggest economy by GDP. According to the
               Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Turkey is expected to overtake
               India as the world’s second fastest growing economy by 2017.
               EXHIBIT 1: TURKISH GDP, 2001-2013

               $1,200bn

               $1,000bn                                                                                    $912bn
                                                                                                     $841bn
                 $800bn

                 $600bn

                 $400bn

                 $200bn

                    $0bn
                            2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E

               Source: The World Bank


               Since the Turkish economic crisis of 2001 and the reforms initiated by Kemal Dervis, the
               Minister of Economic Affairs and the Treasury at the time, inflation has fallen from 18.4% in
               2003 to around 7.4% (expected) in 2012, and unemployment has fallen from 13.3% in April
               2009 to 9.2% in 2012 — the lowest level since 2005. Although the budget deficit and foreign
               debt remain cause for concern, in November 2012 rating agency Fitch raised Turkey’s credit
               rating to investment grade as a vote of confidence in Turkish officials’ efforts to transition the
               country towards a more self-sustaining, export-driven economy.

               There is an exponentially developing appetite for digital media consumption in Turkey. Use of
               IP-based platforms such as web, social networks, and mobile Internet is growing at an
               unprecedented pace. 36.5m Turks are Internet users — the fifth largest digital population in
               Europe after Germany, UK, Russia and France, and with more room for growth. Broadband
               Internet subscriptions have grown 38% year-on-year to 19.3m in 2012.

               EXHIBIT 2: INTERNET BROADBAND PENETRATION IN TURKEY

               30                                                                                              30%
                                                                                                  25.8%
               25                                                                                              25%
                                                                                                   19.3
               20                                                                                              20%
                                                                                 14
               15                                                                                              15%
                                                                  8.6
               10            5.9                  6.8                                                          10%
                5                                                                                              5%
                0                                                                                              0%
                           2008A              2009A              2010A         2011A            Q3 2012E
                                    No. of Broadband Users (m)                Penetration as % of Population

               Source: IMF, The World Bank

               Mobile penetration is high at 90% with 67m users. Turkcell, Vodafone, and Avea are the
               dominant carriers with 52%, 28%, and 20% market shares respectively. 60% of mobile users
               are currently on 3G data plans. According to Flurry, Turkey is one of the top ten fastest
               growing iOS and Android markets at 185% year-on-year growth. 71% of mobile subscribers




2

                                                           GP Bullhound LLP
GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING




               connect to the Internet via mobile phone at least once a day. Every major eCommerce and
               Digital Media — and even traditional — company in Turkey is releasing new mobile initiatives
               and experiencing significant upside from this rapidly growing medium.

               EXHIBIT 3: MOBILE IS BECOMING MOBILE INTERNET – 3G SUBSCRIBER GROW TH


               100                                                                                                 94%
                 90
                                  92%                                                                              92%
                 80                                                                                      90%
                                                                                88%       89%                      90%
                 70                     87%                      89%
                                                      85%
                 60
                                                                                                                   88%
                                                                                           28.5          26.9
                 50                                               33.9          30.8
                                                      42.4                                                         86%
                 40
                           65.8         55.7
                 30                                                                                                84%
                 20                                                                        37.7          40.3
                                                                  31.4          34.9
                                                                                                                   82%
                 10                                   19.4
                                        7.1
                  0                                                                                                80%
                           2008         2009          2010       2011       Q1 2012       Q2 2012      Q3 2012
                          No. of 2G Subscribers (m)           No. of 3G Subscribers (m)           Mobile Penetration (%)


               Source: www.tk.gov.tr



               People in Turkey are extremely digitally engaged and social, evident on the ground and in the
               statistics. Turkish people spend the third-longest time online in Europe after the Netherlands
               and the UK, and with 32.4m Facebook users — 89% of all Internet users and 43% of the total
               population — Turkey is ranked the seventh largest country on Facebook. With 9m users and
               rapidly growing, Turkey is also becoming one of the largest Twitter-using countries. Just
               recently, leading mobile operator Turkcell and Twitter reached an agreement to better
               integrate Twitter into Turkcell’s mobile phone architecture.

               Turkey's overall infrastructure is well developed. Credit-card penetration, at some 60%, is
               higher than the European average of 50%. And, relative to for example Russia, logistics and
               physical infrastructure are good. Thanks to heavy investment, communication links are strong.
               The third-generation network, at least in major urban areas, is often faster than that found in
               many other European countries.

               Available data indicates that Turkey’s economic environment is, and appears likely to remain,
               strong; likewise the political environment is, and appears likely to remain, stable. With more
               "profit-focused" execution, innovation, and smart money/investors feeding into Turkey, these
               positive digital media trends are on track to continue for years to come.




3

                                                             GP Bullhound LLP
TURKEY                 RUSSIA                 ISRAEL                FINLAND               SWEDEN                 BRAZIL                   UK                     US
                                                                                                                      Population and Area
                                                                                                                      Population                            75.6m                  143.4m                  7.9m                  5.4m                  9.6m                 193.3m                 63.2m                 315.6m
                                                                                                                      Population Density                    97/km2                  8/km2                360/km2                18/km2                23/km2                23/km2               255.6/km2                34/km2
GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING




                                                                                                                      Area                               783,562/km2           17,075,400/km2           22,145/km2           303,893/km2            410,314/km2          8,514,877/km2          243,610/km2           9,161,074/km2
                                                                                                                      Largest Cities                   Istanbul (13.3m)      Moscow (11.5m)        Jerusalem (0.8m)      Helsinki (0.6m)     Stockholm (1.3m)      S’Paulo (11.2m)     London (9.5m)         NY (8.2m)
                                                                                                                                                       Ankara (4.3m)         St. P’burg (4.8m)     Tel Aviv (0.4m)       Tampere (0.2m)      Goth’burg (0.5m)      Rio de J. (6.3m)    B’ham (2.4m)          LA (3.8m)
                                                                                                                                                       Izmir (2.8m)          Nov’birsk (1.5m)      Haifa (0.3m)          Turku (0.2m)        Malmӧ (0.3m)          Salvador (2.7m)     M’chester (1.9m)      Chicago (2.7m)
                                                                                                                      Economic Indicators (2011 Actuals, IMF)
                                                                                                                      GDP (PPP)                            $1,260bn               $3,015bn                $216bn                $202bn                $392bn               $2,289bn               $2,234bn              $14,991bn




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          GP Bullhound LLP
                                                                                                                      GDP Growth                             8.5%                   4.3%                   4.6%                  2.7%                  3.9%                  2.7%                   0.8%                  1.8%
                                                                                                                      Inflation Rate                         6.5%                   8.4%                   3.5%                  3.3%                  2.9%                  6.6%                   4.5%                  3.1%
                                                                                                                      Unemployment Rate                      9.8%                   6.5%                   7.1%                  7.8%                  7.5%                  5.9%                   8.0%                  8.9%
                                                                                                                      Users and Infrastructure
                                                                                                                      Internet Users*                    36.5m (48%)            70.6m (49%)             5.4m (68%)            4.8m (89%)            8.7m (91%)            87.3m (45%)           51.6m (82%)           245.5m (78%)
                                                                                                                      3G Penetration**                       20%                     8%                    n.a.                   n.a.                 73%                    41%                   53%                    64%
                                                                                                                      Credit Card Penetration*           60% (45.4m)             5% (7.2m)                 n.a.                   n.a.                  n.a.              21% (40.6m)               n.a.              33% (104.0m)
                                                                                                                      Social Media
                                                                                                                      Facebook Users***                  32.4m (89%)             7.7m (11%)             3.8m (70%)            2.3m (48%)            4.9m (56%)            65.2m (75%)           32.8m (64%)           167.4m (68%)
                                                                                                                      Twitter Users***                    9.0m (25%)            5.0m (7.1%)            0.1m (1.9%)           0.3m (6.3%)            0.3m (3.4%)           41.2m (47%)           10.0m (19%)            59.0m (24%)
                                                                                                                      Sample Success Stories
                                                                                               Turkey in Context




                                                                                                                                                           Joygame               vKontakte                                                           Blocket.se           Marcadolivre          Rightmove              Gilt Groupe
                                                                                                                      Local Successes                                                                        -                     -
                                                                                                                                                           Markafoni              Yandex                                                               Klarna              Submarino         Moneysupermarket              Uber
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Shopping.com              Rovio                 Spotify                                     Betfair                Google
                                                                                                                      Global Successes                         -                 Kaspersky                                                                                   Terra
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Waze                  Supercell              Skype                                      King.com               Facebook
                                                                                                                      No. US-based Companies on
                                                                                                                                                               2                      4                     64                     1                     3                     28                    39                    n/a
                                                                                                                      NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex
                                                                                                                   Sources: The World Bank, IMF, Capgemini, Socialbakers, Wired, Webrazzi, Beantin, Arabsocialmediareport.com, Semiocast Research VISA, KPCB, * As % of total population ** As % of mobile subscribers *** As % of
                                                                                                                   Internet users




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4
GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING




               SWOT Analysis
               EXHIBIT 4: SW OT ANALYSIS



                                           Strengths                                      Opportunities

                         Strong macro trends and growing economy            Exponentially growing appetite for digital media
                         Young, educated and engaged population             Pressing move in 2013 towards more
                         Large Internet user base w/ room for growth         innovative and profitable businesses
                         90%+ mobile penetration                            Money-spend online to catch up with time-
                         Robust logistics, payments and Internet             spend online (consumers and advertisers)
                          infrastructure                                     Massive growth trajectory in smartphone and
                         Entrepreneurial energy and quick problem-           broadband penetration
                          solving capability                                 Foreign investors looking to invest in Turkey
                         Hard-working and low-cost labor force              Investment incentives from government
                         East/West geographical and cultural magnet         Affluent professionals coming back home


                                       Weaknesses                                             Threats
                         R




                         Young Internet ecosystem                           Immature business models failing with
                         Lack of private capital, small set of smart         potential chilling effect on new investment
                          institutional investors                            Domestic challenges to modernization
                         Insufficient innovation                            Internet censorship by government agencies
                         Unbalanced activity in eCommerce versus            Unstable conditions in nearby countries
                          other digital media segments
                         Undue focus on revenue growth
                         Dependence on Google user acquisition
                         Lack of non-founding employee incentives
                          and stock options



               Source: GP Bullhound



               Emerging Internet Ecosystem in Turkey
               New Internet startups are being formed and large traditional corporations are announcing new
               online initiatives in Turkey virtually every day. Large conglomerates such as Dogan and
               Dogus have numerous Internet companies under their umbrellas (such as Amazon-like
               HepsiBurada and Hulu-like Tvyo). The spread of entrepreneurship in Turkey is taking place
               not just at the corporate level, but at the startup level as well. Many Turkish professionals
               have embraced the Internet as the forward-looking direction for growth. There is tremendous
               energy behind a push to create what might one day become the Silicon Valley of Anatolia.

               Entrepreneurship and Internet studies are being taught in every major university across
               Turkey, and entrepreneurs and sector experts frequently attend panel discussions and give
               lectures to stimulate debate and initiative. Arda Kutsal and his team at the very popular
               Turkish tech portal Webrazzi are playing a major role in cultivating the Silicon Valley paradigm
               in Turkey — by updating Turkish entrepreneurs on a daily basis as to what’s going on in
               California, and how to emulate or localize these dynamic developments in Turkey.

               Burak Buyukdemir has done an outstanding job of mentoring and incubating up-and-coming
               entrepreneurs through his incubation platform eTohum. In fact, there are growing numbers of
               incubators and accelerators (Fit Startup Factory, Dunya Invest, Inventram, among others).
               The Turkish arm of Endeavor, which offers strategic advice, mentorship and global contacts to
               promising startups, is working hard to help mature the entrepreneurial ecosystem.

               The quality of advice available from some of the local counsels — such as Sidika Baysal
               Hatipoglu of B+B or Enver Sezer Caliskan of Caliskan & Kizilyel — compares favorably to that
               which one would get from seasoned professionals at Wilson Sonsini or Fenwick in Silicon
               Valley.




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                                                                  GP Bullhound LLP
GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING




               The Turkish government, recognizing these new developments as vital for boosting the
               accelerated growth Turkey has been experiencing in recent years, has been initiating a host of
               policies — legal and fiscal measures and infrastructure projects — to attract entrepreneurial
               activity and job seekers to the Internet sector. Especially helpful for growing startups is
               "Government R&D company status" incentivizing them to rent offices in numerous tax-exempt
               ‘technoparks’ located on university campuses throughout the country. Such government
               support is aimed at overcoming some of the known liabilities inherited from the past, creating
               a friendly, proactive and robust environment for new businesses.

               Despite all these positive trends, the Turkish Internet ecosystem is still young and
               inexperienced in regard to the mores and skill sets of Silicon Valley. The older generation is
               still bound by tradition and this can hamper younger players from developing and deploying
               the entrepreneurial spirit to which Silicon Valley is accustomed. Cronyism, lack of vision, fear
               of failure, insufficient skill in planning and cooperation are formidable deterrents.

               At times, new business leaders can be impatient and naïve, underestimating what it takes to
               grow a sustainable enterprise. There is a lack of institutional private funding, and existing local
               investors want too much control, being unwilling to allow entrepreneurs to chart untried
               trajectories. This results in a lack of innovation, premature abandonment of good ideas, and
               inadequate financial incentives.

               Of course, all these shortcomings are natural part of continued growth and development. And
               as the country’s new business leaders demonstrate that they are finding their feet in this newly
               developing arena, Internet entrepreneurship in Turkey is increasingly acquiring a distinctive
               flavor, both local and global, creating a new and as yet untapped sphere of opportunity for
               investors.




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                                                         GP Bullhound LLP
GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING




               Private Capital Environment
               To date, the Turkish private capital environment has been largely dominated by local
               investors and a small set of outside investors. Many of these are angel investors in the form
               of successful entrepreneurs such as Emre Kurttepeli, founder of leading Internet portal
               Mynet, Hasan Aslanoba, CEO of Aslanoba, and Tolga Tatari, Ahmet Emre Sari, and Sina
               Afra, co-founders of eCommerce giant Markafoni. Turkish angels have generally invested in
               rounds of up to $1m so far, although in some cases they have joined larger rounds alongside
               non-angel investors.
               We see significant deal activity from a number of key local digital media investors. 212 and
               iLab in particular have been highly active and have played a key role in building awareness
               of and confidence in the Turkish tech scene.
               212 is the largest early-stage VC fund dedicated to making investments in Internet and
               technology companies in Turkey, investing in a broad range of verticals including social
               gaming, eCommerce, cloud services and social media.
               iLab is unique in being both an investor and incubator, and focuses primarily on the
               classifieds, comparison, e-commerce and content categories – all proven models and highly
               scalable businesses. Founded in 2000, iLab is an icon of the Turkish tech scene - it has
               holdings in 12 businesses with a combined total of over 700 employees, more than 400m
               page views, 24m users, 6m unique monthly visitors, and a reach of 25% of the Turkish
               Internet market. iLab invested in GittiGidiyor in 2006 and still owns a minority stake.
               Generally speaking, the serious money has been provided by a small set of international
               investors, with the largest raises to date coming from General Atlantic ($44m for Yemek
               Sepeti, together with Endeavor Global) and Tiger Global Management (large stakes in Mynet
               and Trendyol). Hummingbird and Earlybird have also made multiple investments. As global
               investors get comfortable with the idea of investing in Turkey, we expect foreign capital
               inflows to increase significantly.
               EXHIBIT 5: SELECTED VC FIRMS W ITH TURKISH INTERNET INVESTMENTS

                                      Investor                    Key Investments




               Source: CapitalIQ, Webrazzi, GP Bullhound




7

                                                           GP Bullhound LLP
eCommerce                                        Advertising                             Content                       Gaming
                                                                                                                           eTailers &                                                                                        Social Media
                                                                                                                                                     Private Shopping            Digital Creative Agencies                                               Console Gaming
                                                                                                                          Marketplaces
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               MMO
                                                                                                                         Group Buying &                  Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Internet-Only Media Companies
                                                                                                                           Daily Deals                 Comparison
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Web / Download
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                                                                                                                                                                           Brand and                  Brand and
                                                                                                                                                                        Performance Ads              Performance
                                                                                                                                   Vertical eCommerce                       - Sellside               Ads - Buyside     Traditional News Outlets        Social Network Gaming




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   GP Bullhound LLP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Online Video & Music
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mobile Gaming
                                                                                                                                                                                     Video Ad Networks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Licensed Betting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Online Dating
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mobile
                                                                                                                                                                         eMail Marketing
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Marketing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3rd Party Services
                                                                                               Digital Media Landscape




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Vertical Content
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Enabling Technologies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Online Video
                                                                                                                                                                              Classifieds, Yellow Pages, and HR
                                                                                                                                          Payments
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mobile Internet




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               8
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               Hot Topics

               Three Paths to Success
               For an emerging country such as Turkey, we see three major routes to entrepreneurial
               success. The first is to clone existing products/services that are already successful in
               developed markets, but need a lot of work to flower in new territory. To date this has been a
               common strategy for many Turkish entrepreneurs, and has been highly profitable for first-
               movers such as eBay-clone Gittigidiyor and Gilt-clone Markafoni.

               The second route is to create a unique or differentiated product/service for the local market
               only — in this case, offerings with specific appeal to the Turkish population. Peak Gaming’s
               flagship title Okey, for instance, has created unique appeal for Turkish gamers by
               successfully porting the tea house experience of playing tile games to the Internet. Players
               can also send each other topical gifts such as Turkish coffee, a nargila water pipe and even
               a belly dancer!

               The third and less well trodden route is to create a product/service with global appeal which
               can compete outside of Turkey as well as within it — here the most innovation is required.
               Already we see a number of success stories in the making. In mobile Internet games, for
               instance, we see promising, high-quality, products such as Picnic Hippo's Bucketz, Duello's
               iSlash, and Fugo's Wordz.

               Leadership Position and More Innovation
               Naturally, Turkish entrepreneurs and investors at first directed most of their attention   and
               money into types of businesses with which they and consumers are most familiar             and
               comfortable. That is, selling offline goods through online channels with a new make-up     and
               social mechanics. Accordingly, the majority of Internet-based businesses in Turkey         and
               MENA have been about selling offline goods online. And this has been fine, as a start.

               However, we have to keep in mind that by their nature online shopping businesses have
               relatively lower margins. In addition, low barriers to entry result in intense competition and
               additional margin pressure. This means that only companies in the leading position by a high
               margin and/or offering proprietary products will be embraced by consumers over the long
               term.

               Thus there are two ways to move forward in creating more local and global online success
               stories in Turkey. Either the leading players further ramp up to widen the margin between
               themselves and the competition, or entrepreneurs retool and come up with a wider range of
               innovative, diversified, differentiated, and disruptive businesses — both in eCommerce and
               other under-penetrated Internet sectors — that can in due course reach scale and
               profitability.

               In Turkey so far, Hepsiburada.com (online retailer), Sahibinden (online classifieds), Cicek
               Sepeti (online flower delivery), Yemek Sepeti (online food delivery), Mynet (online portal),
               Joygame (online gaming), Kariyer.net (online recruitment) have revenue scale and profitable
               growth. All these companies offer differentiated products and are distinguished leaders of
               their respective sectors. What is needed is more of them.

               “Copy Now” and “Sell Fast” Does Not Work
               Being inspired by and “cloning” a business that has been successful elsewhere can be a
               smart move for entrepreneurs, and may bring considerable success. And it may at first
               appear that this route is a shortcut compared with launching an enterprise that is brand new
               on the scene. This perception may, however, be deceptive. Whether it is cloning a winning
               business model or innovating from the ground up, local case studies support the common
               experience of excessive workloads before payback can be expected.




9

                                                         GP Bullhound LLP
GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING




               In other words, successful and enduring companies are not built easily or overnight. When
               we look at the time span of some of the successful online businesses in Turkey, where there
               is both revenue scale and profitability (or a successful exit), this point becomes evident:
               EXHIBIT 6: SELECTED COMPANIES W ITH REVENUE SCALE AND PROFITABILITY


                                          1998              2000             2002    2004            2006               2008            2010            2012             2013

                           LEGEND
                                                                                      7 years old                                                     Amazon
                                   Private Placement            M&A (Exit)



                                                                                                    6 years old                               Hummingbird
                                                                                                                                              Ventures



                                                                                        iLab Ventures                  eBay                           $235m
                                            13 years old                                                                                              eBay




                           15 years old




                                                                                                                                                      $15m (50% stake)
                                                                                                                  4 years old                                CJ Games



                                                                  iLab Ventures                              iLab Ventures
                                 14 years old




                                                                                                         5 years old                     $7.2m    Allegro
                                                                                                                                         Trayas   (Naspers)




                                                                                                             Tiger Global
                                     14 years old                                                            Management




                                                                                                                                                       $2.5m
                                                                  11 years old                                                                         Intel Capital




                                          13 years old




                                                                                                                              European Founders                $44m
                                                                                                                              Fund Management                  General Atlantic
                                                         12 years old                                                                                          Endeavor Global




               Source: CapitalIQ, GP Bullhound


               Chicken-and-Egg Paradox
               Today, investors all over the world are looking for growth, but with developed countries in
               abeyance and many developing countries (such as Brazil and India) experiencing lower than
               anticipated growth, attractive opportunities without high risk are few and far between.

               In many respects, Turkey is becoming a standout place to look for high growth opportunities,
               and investors are now keen on investing in Turkey. However, many are sitting on the
               sidelines, waiting for more definitive signs. Optimistic and willing though they may be, they
               remain cautious.

               On the other hand, Turkish entrepreneurs require early-stage capital and seasoned investors
               backing them up to unlock the ecosystem’s underlying value, to maturate the nascent
               developments into the solid opportunities the investors are waiting for. Thus we have at the
               moment something of a chicken-and-egg paradox, awaiting bold moves on the part of
               frontrunner investors to break into a new and profitable arena.

               Undue Focus on User/Revenue Growth
               As commonly experienced in the western European and Silicon Valley start-up community, we
               see many examples in Turkey where Turkish entrepreneurs focus on customer acquisition
               and revenue growth as markers of success. However, this mentality can prove to be short-
               sighted. Investors, on the other hand, anticipating changes wrought by maturity, need to see
               not just revenue growth but a path to profitability.




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               For example, for long-term value, Turkish e-commerce entrepreneurs need to look beyond
               simply acquiring large numbers of users, instead focusing on the lifetime value of customers,
               conversion rates, user royalty, and organic channels of customer acquisition and other key
               performance indicators.

               Emre Aydin, founder and CEO of Cicek Sepeti, has successfully demonstrated this by a
               relentless focus on analyzing customer data and leveraging it to make operational
               enhancements, as well as ongoing product innovation. And the result is clear — over the
               years, Cicek Sepeti has enjoyed strong revenue growth with unprecedented EBITDA margins
               of around 20%, delivering flowers online, in many respects, better than its global counterparts.

               Appointing Additional Leadership When Needed
               It is very common, both in Turkey and globally, for founders of Internet companies to be
               wearing lots of hats. Although these talented leaders have had what it takes to get their
               enterprises off the ground to considerable acclaim, Turkish entrepreneurs sometimes
               underestimate the need to delegate authority and to widen the talent pool by bringing in
               professional personnel with additive experience and complementary responsibilities. Such
               limitation can prove to be damaging. Not only does it constrain the scope of realizable
               potential for the enterprise, but the leader may be blindsided by the success they’ve enjoyed,
               becoming overwhelmed and spending a lot of their time where they are not needed or as
               valuable.

               It was a smart decision, when Burak Balik, the founder of the highly successful online gaming
               company Joygame, brought in Baris Ozistek as CEO in March 2011, two years after the
               company’s founding. Today Burak is leading the product teams, game selection and on-going
               platform innovation with Baris leading day-to-day execution and dealing with the corporate
               development needs of the business. We expect this leadership to continue to translate to
               exciting milestones for Joygame that the Turkish ecosystem as a whole can be proud of —
               Korean entertainment and media company CJ E&M recently acquired 50% of Joygame for
               $15m.

               Another great example of successful additional leader appointment is in the case of Sina Afra
               joining Tolga Tatari and Ahmet Sari in order to bring organizational experience and discipline
               to the initial Markafoni team. The three leaders truly complemented each other with their
               respective roles and turned Markafoni into the great success story it has become. Naspers
               acquired 66% of Markafoni in 2011 and continues to back Markafoni with their new initiatives.
               The collective goal is to turn Markafoni into a billion dollar company and have an IPO in a few
               years.

               One-way Ticket Back Home
               A fairly recent phenomenon of significance for the tech sector in Turkey is the accelerating
               “reverse brain transfer,” whereby Turkish professionals who have been studying and working
               abroad are returning home to seek newly emerging opportunities. The tech sector has been a
               major beneficiary of this trend.

               For example, after 17 successful years in the US — having sold SelectMinds to Oracle —
               entrepreneur Cem Sertoglu returned home in 2006 and became one of the early pioneers of
               the (then non-existent) VC community. Two companies Sertoglu invested in — Gittigidiyor and
               Grupanya — have already enjoyed exits.

               In addition, well-regarded sector executives such as Hakan Bas of Lidyana, Rina Onur of
               Peak Games, and Demet Mutlu of Trendyol studied in leading US universities and returned
               home after a few years of investment banking experience to participate in this rapidly growing
               sector. In another manifestation of coming back home, there are numerous Turkish executives
               working abroad for US-based enterprises being asked by their companies to return to Turkey
               to lead their operations in the region. Just recently, Baris Aksoy was asked by Intel Capital to
               relocate from Silicon Valley to head their new offices in Istanbul.




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               Selected Sector Overviews

               eCommerce
               eCommerce is arguably the sector in the Turkish digital media landscape which has attracted
               the most attention and investment. The combination of a young and affluent demographic,
               rapid economic growth, developed infrastructure and strong Internet, mobile and credit card
               penetration has created fertile ground for eCommerce players to thrive. As penetration has
               risen, the value of domestic eCommerce transactions has dramatically increased, from
               around $3.1bn in 2007 to over $17bn in 2012, representing a 41% CAGR. Likewise, the
               volume of such transactions has surged from 54m in 2007 to 162m in 2012, a 24.5% CAGR.
               Even in 2012, when other sectors slowed down, domestic eCommerce spending rose by
               34%, and volumes by 29%.


               EXHIBIT 7: VOLUME AND VALUE OF DOMESTIC ECOMMERCE TRANSACTIONS

               25                                                                                        162.0       180
                                                                                                                     160
               20                                                                          125.9          17.3       140
                                                                                                                     120
               15                                                              91.9         12.9
                                                                                                                     100
                                             64.6              66.5                                                  80
               10          54.1                                                 8.6
                                                                5.8                                                  60
                                              5.1
                 5          3.1                                                                                      40
                                                                                                                     20
                 0                                                                                                   0
                          2007A             2008A             2009A           2010A        2011A         2012A
                                        Transaction Value ($bn)                         Transaction Volume (m)

               Source: Interbank Card Center, xe.com, GP Bullhound


               Turkish people are spending more online not only in aggregate terms, but also per transaction –
               average basket sizes have grown 13.1% in 2012 alone. Turkey already has around 10m online
               shoppers. Assuming Turkish Internet penetration will continue towards EU averages, this number
               should reach around 16m by 2016.


               EXHIBIT 8: AVERAGE DOMESTIC ECOMMERCE TRANSACTION VALUES ($)




                                                                                              102.7          107.0
                                                                                93.6
                                                               87.3
                                           79.6
                        57.8




                       2007A              2008A               2009A            2010A         2011A          2012A

               Source: Interbank Card Center, xe.com, GP Bullhound


               Investor interest in Turkish eCommerce has been heightened by a series of landmark transactions
               which took place in 2011. First, eBay acquired 83% of Turkey’s largest auction site GittiGidiyor, in a
               deal rumoured to value the company at $215m. Then South African media conglomerate Naspers
               acquired 70% of Markafoni, one of Turkey’s largest private shopping companies, in a deal valuing it



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               around $200m. Lastly, Amazon invested in leading online flower store Ciceksepeti. Since then,
               Turkish fundraising activity has been dominated by e-commerce plays as investors seek to tap the
               sector’s long-term growth potential (see Selected M&A Transactions and Private Placements on
               pages 30-32 for details).

               At the same time, the sector faces a number of challenges. The success of and hype surrounding
               leading companies such as Markafoni, Yemek Sepeti, Grupfoni and Lidyana has spawned
               numerous imitations, creating intense competition for market share and driving down (already low)
               gross margins for the market as a whole. There are hundreds of small-scale firms in each
               eCommerce segment, but many lack distinctive sustainable business models and are too small to
               attract investment.

               That said, the overall long-term picture is still one of considerable optimism. Turkish per capita
               income currently stands at c. $10,000, and is projected to reach $60,000 by 2050. GDP growth will
               further the infrastructure investment needed to bring increasing numbers of Turks online. High
               mobile penetration will go a long way to overcoming current infrastructure issues. In addition, the
               ongoing and anticipated demise of large numbers of companies will bring maturity to the Turkish
               eCommerce sector. Entrepreneurs and investors will need to have a more considered and
               disciplined approach, and will need to focus more on product differentiation, sustainability, unit level
               economics, and paths to profitability along with revenue growth. With eCommerce penetration
               standing at around 0.6% of retail sales, the sector is still in its infancy with a long and profitable way
               to catch up with the consumption levels of already mature European counterparts.

               EXHIBIT 9: E-COMMERCE SHARE OF RETAIL SALES (2011, NON-TRAVEL)


                  10.7%

                             8.0%
                                        7.4%        7.0%   6.8%
                                                                    6.0%   5.8%
                                                                                     4.3%
                                                                                            3.3%   3.0%    2.5%
                                                                                                                   0.6%




               Source: Center for Retail Research


               General eTailers and Horizontal Marketplaces
               Leading general business-to-consumer eTailers serving Turkish customers, such as Dogan Group’s
               Hepsiburada and Amazon, work with large numbers of merchants and sell hundreds of thousands of
               products across a broad range of categories. Founded in 1998, hepsiburada.com is the largest
               eCommerce site in Turkey with over 6m monthly unique visitors, 900,000 monthly purchases and
               annual revenues of over $300m. The Company offers 350 SKUs in 32 categories and employs 250
               employees. Although much smaller, Sabanci Group’s Kliksa and Hurriyet’s newcomer Yenicarsim are
               other prominent players in this segment.

               Horizontal marketplaces act as virtual bazaars that bring together merchants, small businesses, and
               individuals to trade almost anything. Sahibinden is currently the leading marketplace and classifieds
               destination in Turkey, with over 13m monthly unique visitors. It claims over 3m listings at any one
               time and around 50,000 new listings a day. eBay’s GittiGidiyor is currently second in the space with
               over 6m monthly unique visitors. eBay’s 2011 acquisition of GittiGidiyor remains the largest Internet
               acquisition in Turkey, with a deal value of $217m.




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               Online Private Shopping
               Online private shopping clubs offer an environment that hosts sales of designer brands for members
               at deep discounts. They often encourage members to introduce friends in their online social networks
               with additional savings and offers. UK-based Vente Privee offered this model to online customers for
               the first time in 2001 and remains one of the most valuable private companies in the world, with
               revenues in 2011 of $773m and valuations estimated between two to three billion dollars. Gilt Groupe,
               the first to bring the luxury sample sale to the US online market when launched in 2007, has also
               experienced extraordinary growth. Realizing this massive opportunity, Turks were fast to follow, with
               private shopping clubs Markafoni and Trendyol launching in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Other
               sizable (and somewhat challenged) players are Limango, Vipdükkan, Morhippo, and 1v1y.com.

               Group Buying and Daily Deals
               Group buying sites offer products and services at significantly reduced prices providing that a
               minimum number of buyers purchase the same item. They are viral versions of traditional
               daily deal sites, bolstered by integration with Facebook and various social features. Huge
               consumer demand and hype for this segment was reflected in the creation of 150+ new
               players and a rash of deals in Turkey in 2011. That year, Intel invested in Grupanya, Quants
               Financial Services took a majority stake in Grupfoni, and betting site Bilyoner acquired
               Grupca. However, with intense competition, low barriers to entry, and questionable ROI, this
               market has been shrinking. Currently, Istanbul-based Grupanya and Chicago-based Groupon
               are the leading players in Turkey, with Yakala.co, Grupfoni, and Bonubon chasing after them.

               Price Comparison and Lead Generation
               Price comparison services allow individuals to see different lists of prices for specific products from
               large numbers of retailers. These sites typically do not charge users to use the service, but charge the
               retailers a flat fee or have them pay every time a user clicks through to the retailers’ product (CPC).
               Since price is a big value driver of eCommerce for Turkish consumers (in many instances versus
               convenience), price comparison sites are quite popular. The price comparison sites with the most
               traffic are Akakce, Ucuzu, and iLab’s Cimri.

               Vertical eCommerce Companies
               In Turkey, 2010 was the year of private shopping, 2011 was all about group buying sites, and in 2012
               vertical eTailers and Marketplaces grabbed most of the attention. These are destinations where
               consumers go to buy products or services in a specific vertical, varying from cars, consumer
               electronics, cosmetics, accessories, baby products, and home decoration.

               Certain verticals, such as food and flowers, already have their well-established leaders. Yemeksepeti,
               founded in 2001, and Ciceksepeti, founded in 2006, have done an excellent job of executing their
               business plans and attracting high quality investors such as General Atlantic, Amazon, and
               Hummingbird. Benefiting from the company’s strong and influential investor and celebrity network,
               Lidyana is emerging as the leading player in the accessories market. There is both huge growth and
               intense competition going after the “golden mom” in the baby and home decoration verticals. The
               travel vertical is still largely owned by offline players, and there is huge room for growth online.

               Vertical eCommerce in Turkey has had some consolidation — Dogan’s acquisition of Evmanya and
               Pera Bulvari buying WestWing — but has yet to see large M&A transactions. The investment
               landscape, on the other hand, has been very active as investors have started to follow companies
               that identify a niche and become proficient in catering to it.




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                EXHIBIT 10: LEADING TURKISH VERTICAL ECOMMERCE COMPANIES



          Vertical                           Leading Player(s)                                 Selected Investor(s)

      Accessories and
      Jewellery


      Automotive



      Books


      Conservative
      Fashion

      Consumer
      Electronics


      Cosmetics



      Flowers and Gifts



      Food



      Home Decoration



      Mother and Baby


      Personalised
      Fashion


      Shoes



      Travel Bookings



      Rentals



      Local Events


                Source: GP Bullhound




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               Payments
               The Turkish payments industry has benefited greatly from the eCommerce boom of the last
               few years. As we discussed at the outset, Turkey’s continued GDP growth, 60% credit card
               and near 50% Internet penetration generated 162m eCommerce transactions in 2012, with a
               total transaction value of $17.3bn and a per-transaction average of $107. However, as we’ve
               also noted, only 0.6% of Turkish retail sales take place online, so the balance of payments is
               firmly weighted towards offline for the time being. This is not just a matter of economic
               development; there are important market factors which have caused eCommerce to lag
               behind. Many small businesses which would otherwise sell online lack an appropriate point
               of sale. Ability to absorb chargebacks is also a concern for small vendors, who may struggle
               to meet shipping deadlines for large volumes of purchases in a time and cost effective
               manner. Prior to 2009, eCommerce was largely limited to retail in small-ticket consumer
               electronics purchases – thin margins meant that few saw an opportunity. A number of large
               online retailers were also badly damaged by the 2008-2009 financial crisis, which did little to
               raise confidence in eCommerce. On the demand side, trust and security are important
               concerns for Turkish consumers.

               Despite all this, things are clearly changing. The explosive growth of private shopping and
               group buying sites has been a major boon for Turkish eCommerce. By leveraging social
               networks and an attractive sense of exclusivity, they have succeeded in creating
               environments where Turkish users feel comfortable making high-ticket purchases they would
               previously have made in-store.

               We now see close to a dozen serious payment players in Turkey:

               i)       Leading micro/mobile payment solutions are Mikro Odeme, Paybyme, PaytoGo /
                        GameSultan, This segment has seen the most transaction activity. On January 25,
                        2012, Mikro Odeme, Turkey’s leading mobile payment service, received a majority
                        investment from London-based private equity house Mediterra Capital. And in
                        February 2013, Asian e-payments giant MOL acquired a majority stake in
                        PaytoGo/GameSultan.

               ii)      Leading digital wallet solutions are Interbank Card Center’s BKM Express,
                        Turkcell’s Cuzdan (Wallet), Paypal, and Vodafone’s Cuzdan (Wallet). These digital
                        wallet platforms make eCommerce purchases easier and faster by letting users
                        register their debit, credit and/or prepaid cards on the platform in advance.

               iii)     Rapidly growing pre-paid solutions include Ininal Mastercard, Vodafone’s CepNakit
                        Kart, Turkcell’s Cep-T Para Cart, Magir Kart, and Paysafecard. Ininal is the only
                        independent player that offers reloadable prepaid cards with 90% market reach
                        given its large merchant ecosystem and retail distribution system.

               iv)      POS and merchants solutions include Paypal, PayU, Mikro Odeme/3pay, ipara, and
                        multipaynet.

               Given the rising acceptance of eCommerce in Turkey and considerable room for growth in
               terms of Internet, mobile and credit card penetration, the payments vertical will continue to
               remain a competitive but exciting space.




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               Gaming
               Turkish gamers — a quarter of the population — are proud to call themselves gamers, and
               have always embraced gaming without limits. There was a point in 2008, however, when the
               Ministry of Finance banned Knight Online, Irvine-based K2 Networks’ micro-transaction-
               based F2P massively-multiplayer online game on the basis that, “there were thousands of
               people in Turkey that were becoming addicted to games and companies were earning profits
               without being taxed.” Knight Online was a victim of its success — the profits from Turkish
               players were reaching $1m a month. The ban was unfortunate, but the game’s popularity is
               an indicator of the very promising online gaming sector in Turkey.

               EXHIBIT 11: TURKEY’S GAMING POPULATION (2012)

                                                        76 m (100%)
                                                    Total Turkish population
                                                         37 m (48%)
                                                      Internet Population
                                                         22 m (29%)
                                                        Active Gamers

                                                         11 m (15%)
                                                           Paying
                                                           Gamers




               Source: Newzoo


               Turkey is estimated to have approximately 22m active gamers, or 29% of its total population
               of 75.6m. Of these 22m, more than half are estimated by Newzoo to be spending money on
               games.

               EXHIBIT 12: MONEY SPENT ON GAMES IN 2012 - DISTRIBUTION

                                                    Casual
                                                    websites                   Console
                                             Social                             games
                                                      9%
                                            networks                             24%
                                               9%

                                          Mobile
                                          phones
                                           10%


                                     PC/Mac boxed                               MMO games
                                         12%                                      21%
                                                        PC/Mac
                                                       download
                                                         15%

               Source: Newzoo


               According to recent Newzoo research, the Turkish gaming market is estimated to reach
               $450m in 2012. Although more traditional genres (console, PC, and massively-multiplayer
               online games) still comprise the largest share (at 24%, 21% and 12% respectively), emerging
               platforms such as social networks and mobile Internet are already at 20% levels with
               projections for much higher growth and innovative vehicles, such as in-app purchases, for
               monetization.




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               EXHIBIT 13: GROW TH IN MENA INTERNET USERS




                                                                                               150m



                                                                  70m


                                  15m


                                 2006A                           2011A                         2015E

               Source: Arabnet and Discover Digital Arabica

               In addition to Turkey, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region offers attractive
               conditions for gaming growth and a significant area of expansion for Turkish gaming
               companies. According to Arabnet and Discover Digital Arabica, in 2011 the MENA region
               had around 72m Internet users and is expected to have 150m by 2015, representing an
               annual growth rate of 21%. Turkey is also a young demographic; the average age is 28.
               Utilizing the new opportunities afforded by global app store distribution on social networks
               and Mobile Internet devices, small players in atypical locations have been developing gaming
               app revenues of a million dollars a day. Turkish gaming companies are becoming alert to
               such opportunities, and investors are on the lookout for those most likely to break through.

               PC/Console Gaming
               According to Newzoo, PC and console gaming currently occupies the largest share of the
               Turkish gaming market, estimated at around $170m each generating around $85m.

               Playstation 3 was the dominant console platform with 80% market share by hardware and
               software sales in H1 2012, with Xbox and Wii sharing the rest of the console market.

               On the PC and console gaming side, we cannot point to a successful Turkish game developer
               since the large global developers/publishers dominate the Turkish market. Top publishers are
               EA, Activision, Konami, Take 2, and UBISOFT. As per 2012 sales, Turkish players favored the
               following games the most: Pro Evolution Soccer, Fifa, Call of Duty, Medal of Honour, and
               Need for Speed. In addition to these multi-platform games, Diablo 3, Football Manager and
               Sims 3 were the most popular titles on PC.

               The only semi-Turkish global success story is German-based Crytec, led by three Turkish-
               German brothers, Cevat, Faruk, and Avni Yerli. The company is known for creating
               exceptionally high-quality games for the PC and next-generation consoles, powered by
               proprietary 3D-game technology CryENGINE. The company has been on an aggressive
               expansion spree over the last several years opening offices in the United States, Ukraine,
               South Korea and, most recently, in the founding brothers’ ancestral Turkey. It is worth
               mentioning that, Mr. Yerli recently announced that all Crytek games would be free-to-play
               going forward. It is rumored that the Company’s most recent free-to-play first person shooter
               game Warface — still in beta — is generating a few million dollars a month in Russia alone.

               MMO Games
               Massive multiplayer online (MMO) games in Turkey are hugely popular. According to
               Newzoo, more than one in five dollars spent on games in Turkey goes to MMO, higher than
               in many other countries. Turkey is estimated to have around 9.8m regular MMO gamers,
               80% of whom are under 35. The share of paying MMO gamers is high at 46%, although
               average monthly spending is several times lower than in the US. 96% of MMO gamers play
               free-to-play and 27% play subscription-based MMO games. In revenue terms, free-to-play
               games take slightly more than half. Spending on MMO and console games at gaming cafes
               is estimated to add at least another $30m to the picture. The growth and popularity of MMO




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               games has been driven by the same factors driving social gaming – a young population, high
               Internet penetration and usage, and rising disposable income - important for covering the
               cost of subscriptions. That said, ultimately MMO in Turkey, like MMORPGs, caters more to
               hardcore gamers than casual ones.

               Established in 2009, the leading Turkish MMO publisher is Joygame. Unlike social gaming
               company Peak Games, Joygame does not produce any titles, but localizes and publishes
               existing ones into the local market. However, the company truly shines when it comes to
               publishing foreign titles in Turkey, and the user metrics, revenue growth, and strong margin
               profile speak to this fact. The team spend days working on the graphics, language, local
               jargon, and analyzing user data as part of the localization process. The company currently
               has 15m registered users, 2.5m monthly active users and 400,000 daily active users.
               Wolfteam is the biggest title of Joygame and actually the most popular MMO first-person
               shooter (FPS) game in the region, estimated to be generating above $2m in monthly
               revenues. Joygame started out by publishing localized titles for the Turkish market only, but
               in 2011 it expanded its operations into MENA, first by opening an office in Egypt. Korea-
               based CJ E&M acquired 50% of Joygame in March 2013.

               Sobee is a truly Turkish multiplayer game development company founded by highly regarded
               video game developer Mevlut Dinc. Mr. Dinc moved to his homeland after developing global
               hits such as the First Samurai and Street Racer to share his wealth of knowledge with the
               Turkish game developers and gamers. The company develops server based multiplayer
               games that are available and customised for a Turkish audience.

               Social Network Gaming
               Social network gaming typically includes games that are played on social networks and/or
               have some type of social graph integration. These games are generally monetized through
               virtual currency, free-to-play and have strong virality components attached to them.
               Facebook, which went from 100m users in 2008 to 1bn in 2012, has been the main driving
               force in the surge of social network gaming.
               EXHIBIT 14: TOP FACEBOOK DEVELOPERS BY DAU (JAN 2013)


                                                       Company                                                  Company
                 Rank           Name      Country                     Rank            Name       Country
                                                        Metrics                                                  Metrics
                                                    MAU       DAU                                             MAU     DAU

                   1    Zynga               US      142.3m    16.5m    13    FreshPlanet            US        10.2m   1.0m

                   2    King.com            UK      38.3m     4.7m     14    Rovio                Finland     10.3m   1.0m

                   3    Electronic Arts     US      17.4m     3.7m     15    Geewa               Czech Rep.   10.1m   1.0m

                   4    Peak Games         Turkey   11.8m     3.4m     16    Tetris Online          US        5.1m    1.0m

                   5    Wooga             Germany   21.6m     3.2m     17    Kiloo Games          Denmark     5.0m    1.0m

                   6    Social Point       Spain    21.3m     2.1m     18    SGN                    US        6.4m    1.0m

                   7    FunPlus Game       China    9.8m      2.0m     19    6waves              Hong Kong    2.2m    0.8m

                   8    Playdom             US      7.4m      1.7m     20    THX Games            Hungary     2.8m    0.7m

                   9    RockYou!            US      2.9m      1.2m     21    Boyaa                 China      4.3m    0.7m

                   10   Playtika           Israel   6.1m      1.1m     22    Digital Chocolate      US        4.4m    0.5m

                   11   PlayQ               US      5.6m      1.1m     23    Mynet                 Turkey     3.8m    0.5m

                   12   Miniclip.comz       UK      6.1m      1.1m     24    Qublix               Canada      3.6m    0.4m



               Source: Appdata.com

               Out of 32.4m Turkish Facebook users, 89% play games. After three years of operations,
               Zynga’s smash hit Farmville franchise is still the most successful franchise on Facebook,
               which speaks to the retention and monetization potential of successful social network games.
               Turkish people are participants in the success of Farmville - 1 out of 8 Internet users in
               Turkey plays Farmville.




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               The Turkish poster child of global social gaming is Istanbul-based Peak Games, a company
               which in little over three years has become the world’s fourth largest gaming company on
               Facebook by daily active users (DAUs). This is impressive, since DAU is a metric that
               measures highly engaged users and is a proxy for monetization potential. The company’s
               flagship title is Okey, a digital version of a popular Turkish tile-based game usually played
               with four people. After resounding domestic success with Okey, Peak released Turkey and
               MENA focused Happy Farm, a farming simulation game in the style of Zynga’s Farmville.
               While Happy Farm’s core mechanics are similar to Farmville’s, notable modifications include
               the use of Arabic instead of English, and characters in local dress (and the absence of pigs).

               Mynet is another Turkish company that gets a top-25 spot on Facebook’s developer
               leaderboard. Whereas Peak Games is a dedicated game development and localization
               studio, Mynet is a diversified Internet media company with a massive user base on its web
               portal, mobile apps and Facebook, from which online games can be distributed.

               Mobile Internet Gaming
               In terms of the number of new games in development, media consumption and monetization,
               mobile Internet is the current rising star in the Turkish gaming landscape. Despite local
               complaints with regard to the lack of local developer talent (those who can write code in
               objective C or Unity) we expect to see more and more high quality games developed in
               Turkey targeting local and global mobile audiences through Mobile Internet devices such as
               iPhone, iPad, and Android.

               EXHIBIT 15: TOP 15 GROSSING IPHONE GAMES IN TURKEY (JAN 2013)


                       Turkish Developer                 Localised         Smaller than 50MB   Free-to-Play


                                   1




                                                                     8                             15
                                                                                   14




               Source: Apple iOS and Google Play App Stores


               Although there are a large number of Turkish game developers offering their games on the
               Turkish app store, only Peak Games finds itself a spot in the top 15 grossing rankings with its
               highly successful mobile game, Okey Plus. Out of 15 top-grossing games, eight of them are
               localized for Turkish players, which shows the importance of localization. Two other important
               points to highlight from our analysis concern the file size and business model. When a mobile
               game is more than 50 megabytes, consumers cannot download it on the fly, through 3G
               mobile networks, which creates significant friction. Numbers speak to this fact. 14 of the 15
               top-grossing games on the Turkish app store are less than 50 megabytes. In terms of the
               business model, all of the 15 top-grossing games are free-to-download and monetize through
               in-app purchases. Finland-based Supercell has the perfect recipe. The company’s highly
               successful social mobile games, Clash of Clans and Hayday — which are both localized, less
               than 50 megabytes, and free-to-play — have been consistently ranked first and second in the
               top-grossing charts in the last few months.

               Turkish mobile game developers have not only achieved some domestic success, but global
               recognition as well—with studios such as FUGO, Duello and Picnic Hippo achieving good
               traction in a very short time. Founded in 2009, FUGO has been a global name in mobile
               gaming through its popular word challenge game Wordz, which has been distributed in 35
               languages downloaded over five million times. Duello, a developer of casual mobile games for




20

                                                                GP Bullhound LLP
GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING




               all ages, was founded in 2010 and has accumulated over 17m installations to date, over one
               million paid downloads and close to 3m monthly active users through its popular iSlash
               franchise. Moreover, it has already reached profitability with no outside financing, and is
               preparing to roll out additional titles to capitalise on its success to date. Picnic Hippo, which
               was founded in 2011, has also become a global success story with Bucketz, a simple and
               humorous touch screen game which has been featured by Apple on 146 app stores worldwide
               and is the number one ranking game by iPhone Quality Index, a site which condenses critical
               opinion on apps from across the web into a definitive score. All of these studios have
               produced innovative, popular and internationally accessible titles. They are also small and
               lean, with no more than ten staff each.

               Licensed Online Betting
               Turkey has a complicated relationship with gambling. Although betting is officially illegal under
               Turkish law, licensed online betting is permitted in a number of selective cases including the
               state lottery (Piyango), sports betting (Sportoto) and gambling on horse racing. The national
               lottery is something of an institution for Turkish people and forms a billion dollar market.
               Soccer and horse racing are also highly popular - and the sports lottery generates in excess of
               $1.5bn yearly, with track-side betting bringing in around $700m. The sports lottery has been
               the primary driver behind the shift in Turkey towards betting online – unsurprising given that
               the Internet provides a constant stream of sports news and insight. Licensed online players
               are estimated to represent approximately 15% of total betting spend, and growing. The
               leading “legal” players are Bilyoner.com, Nesine, Tuttur, Oley, and Birebin.

               Similar to the United States, several changes have been made to Turkish gambling laws in the
               last decade making it illegal for gambling companies to target Turkish citizens with their
               products. While there are no legally-licensed Internet gambling websites operating out of the
               country, foreign operators continue to target Turkish players. Betsson, for example, received
               more than a quarter of its revenue from Turkey last year. In addition, Sportingbet recently sold
               its highly popular Turkish bookmaking service Superbahis.com to GVC Sports for
               approximately $200m, despite attempts from Turkish regulations to stop the sale.

               The Turkish government has recently announced its intention to sell Sportoto - its only legal
               sports betting organization - as part of a privatization bid expected to raise in excess of $10bn.




21

                                                         GP Bullhound LLP
GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING




               Digital Agencies, Online Advertising and Marketing
               Both globally and in Turkey, the Internet is the fastest growing advertising medium, attracting
               advertisers with its rapidly expanding audience, extensive reach, interactive nature and
               ability to target specific demographics and performance.


               EXHIBIT 16: GROW TH AND ALLOCATION OF TURKISH ADVERTISING SPEND ($BN)



                                                                      3.2                                   Radio      2011A:
                                                                                        Billboards           3%        $2.4bn
                                                         2.8                                7%
                                             2.4                                 Internet
                                2.0                                                 8%

                    1.5


                                                                                                                            TV
                                                                                Print                                     Adverts
                                                                                Media                                      57%
                                                                                24%

                  2009A       2010A        2011A       2012E         2013E
               Source: Turkish Association of Advertising Agencies, GP
               Bullhound


               Overall advertising in Turkey is estimated to be growing at a nearly 20% CAGR from $1.5bn
               in 2009 to $3.2bn in 2013, with online advertising representing 10% of the market. Other
               online verticals and online advertising can be expected to benefit each other in turn: as more
               and more media consumption and spending shifts online, so will advertising dollars.
               Conversely, with increased online ad spend, Internet companies and online retailers can be
               expected to capture new consumers through both brand, performance, and video
               advertising. According to Mediascope Europe, users spend more time with the Internet and
               TV than any other media (18 hours per week on each), but last year, advertisers still spent
               three times more on print media and six times more on television than they do on online
               advertising. In addition, most Turkish advertisers still allocate far less of their marketing
               budgets to digital and online marketing – around only 10% compared to a global average of
               27%. These disparities are expected to be the driving force of double-digit growth rates in
               online and video advertising spend in the years ahead.

               EXHIBIT 17: AVERAGE HOURS SPENT ONLINE PER MONTH PER USER (2012)

                    39.1

                                 30.7
                                             28.9        27.8         27.6    26.3      25.5         25.2       24.7     24.5




                     UK         Turkey      France      Finland      Europe   Spain     Russia   Germany       Sweden Worldwide


               Source: Turkish Association of Advertising Agencies


               People in Turkey spend more time online than any other European nation except the UK –
               this gives advertisers a potentially long window of opportunity within which to engage and
               capture consumers. In addition, online media consumption habits are shifting dramatically.
               Passive, traditional, one-way media consumption is rapidly evolving towards active




22

                                                                     GP Bullhound LLP
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report
GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report

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GP Bullhound Turkish Internet Report

  • 1. INDEPENDENT TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH SECTOR INITIATION  APRIL 2013  DIGITAL MEDIA TURKISH COFFEE – GET IT WHILE IT’S BREWING In times of global financial flux and uncertainty, a highly dynamic new market is evolving for financial and strategic investors looking for the next opportunity: Turkey. This report provides comprehensive and in-depth insight into the fast growing Internet and Digital Media markets in Turkey. A number of factors are converging in Turkey — favorable demographics (young, prospering and engaged), a developing risk-capital ecosystem, a reverse brain transfer (Turkish talent returning home from abroad), widespread mobile penetration, emerging Internet ecosystem and maturing eCommerce sector, stable government, strong online and offline consumption habits and more, making Turkey one of the most anticipated markets in the world. The promise demonstrated by evolving sector dynamics and vastly changing entrepreneurial conditions led last year to considerable hype with regards to investing in Turkey. This enthusiasm in turn boosted a perception somewhat in advance of reality, stimulating premature expectations. Now it’s time, for all concerned to come back to Earth. Particularly in regard to the eCommerce sector, and the hard work called for may be more mundane than the glittering fanfare. Survival of the fittest is eliminating lagging players and strengthening the entrepreneurial ecosystem. The young market is in fact maturing, and early investors now have the kind of opportunity that comes around only when a particular constellation of conditions prevail. This report acknowledges and provides context for short-term caution associated with emerging markets such as this. However, the overall findings suggest substantial potential in the mid to long-term for the Turkish Internet ALI DAGLI ali.dagli@gpbullhound.com market to be a new growth region for entrepreneurs and investors alike. US: +1 415 412 2015 Turkey : +90 532 245 7505 DANIEL MAGGS daniel.maggs@gpbullhound.com London: +44 207 101 7660 Important disclosures appear at the back of this report GP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK GP Bullhound Inc. is regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”)
  • 2. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING TABLE OF CONTENTS Market Overview ......................................................................................................................2 Turkey in Context ....................................................................................................................4 SWOT Analysis ........................................................................................................................5 Emerging Internet Ecosystem in Turkey ...............................................................................5 Private Capital Environment ..................................................................................................7 Digital Media Landscape ........................................................................................................8 Hot Topics................................................................................................................................9 Three Paths to Success ....................................................................................9 Leadership Position and More Innovation .........................................................9 “Copy Now” and “Sell Fast” Does Not Work ......................................................9 Chicken-and-Egg Paradox ..............................................................................10 Undue Focus on User/Revenue Growth ..........................................................10 Appointing Additional Leadership When Needed ............................................11 One-way Ticket Back Home ............................................................................11 Selected Sector Overviews ..................................................................................................12 eCommerce .....................................................................................................12 Gaming ............................................................................................................17 Digital Agencies, Online Advertising and Marketing ........................................22 Social Media and Online Content ....................................................................25 Selected Private Placements................................................................................................ 30 Selected M&A Transactions .................................................................................................32 Facebook and Mobile Internet Rankings.............................................................................33 Company Tree Diagrams by Sector .....................................................................................35 1 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 3. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING Market Overview Turkey is a country where East and West have always met, diverse cultures co-exist, and a dynamic young population is expanding. A quarter of Turkey's 75m people are less than 15 years old, growing up in the world of Facebook, Twitter, and mobile Internet, and promising a stronger future for the Turkish economy and its emerging Internet and Digital Media sectors. th th Turkey is the world's 15 , and Europe's 6 , biggest economy by GDP. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Turkey is expected to overtake India as the world’s second fastest growing economy by 2017. EXHIBIT 1: TURKISH GDP, 2001-2013 $1,200bn $1,000bn $912bn $841bn $800bn $600bn $400bn $200bn $0bn 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E Source: The World Bank Since the Turkish economic crisis of 2001 and the reforms initiated by Kemal Dervis, the Minister of Economic Affairs and the Treasury at the time, inflation has fallen from 18.4% in 2003 to around 7.4% (expected) in 2012, and unemployment has fallen from 13.3% in April 2009 to 9.2% in 2012 — the lowest level since 2005. Although the budget deficit and foreign debt remain cause for concern, in November 2012 rating agency Fitch raised Turkey’s credit rating to investment grade as a vote of confidence in Turkish officials’ efforts to transition the country towards a more self-sustaining, export-driven economy. There is an exponentially developing appetite for digital media consumption in Turkey. Use of IP-based platforms such as web, social networks, and mobile Internet is growing at an unprecedented pace. 36.5m Turks are Internet users — the fifth largest digital population in Europe after Germany, UK, Russia and France, and with more room for growth. Broadband Internet subscriptions have grown 38% year-on-year to 19.3m in 2012. EXHIBIT 2: INTERNET BROADBAND PENETRATION IN TURKEY 30 30% 25.8% 25 25% 19.3 20 20% 14 15 15% 8.6 10 5.9 6.8 10% 5 5% 0 0% 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A Q3 2012E No. of Broadband Users (m) Penetration as % of Population Source: IMF, The World Bank Mobile penetration is high at 90% with 67m users. Turkcell, Vodafone, and Avea are the dominant carriers with 52%, 28%, and 20% market shares respectively. 60% of mobile users are currently on 3G data plans. According to Flurry, Turkey is one of the top ten fastest growing iOS and Android markets at 185% year-on-year growth. 71% of mobile subscribers 2 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 4. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING connect to the Internet via mobile phone at least once a day. Every major eCommerce and Digital Media — and even traditional — company in Turkey is releasing new mobile initiatives and experiencing significant upside from this rapidly growing medium. EXHIBIT 3: MOBILE IS BECOMING MOBILE INTERNET – 3G SUBSCRIBER GROW TH 100 94% 90 92% 92% 80 90% 88% 89% 90% 70 87% 89% 85% 60 88% 28.5 26.9 50 33.9 30.8 42.4 86% 40 65.8 55.7 30 84% 20 37.7 40.3 31.4 34.9 82% 10 19.4 7.1 0 80% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 No. of 2G Subscribers (m) No. of 3G Subscribers (m) Mobile Penetration (%) Source: www.tk.gov.tr People in Turkey are extremely digitally engaged and social, evident on the ground and in the statistics. Turkish people spend the third-longest time online in Europe after the Netherlands and the UK, and with 32.4m Facebook users — 89% of all Internet users and 43% of the total population — Turkey is ranked the seventh largest country on Facebook. With 9m users and rapidly growing, Turkey is also becoming one of the largest Twitter-using countries. Just recently, leading mobile operator Turkcell and Twitter reached an agreement to better integrate Twitter into Turkcell’s mobile phone architecture. Turkey's overall infrastructure is well developed. Credit-card penetration, at some 60%, is higher than the European average of 50%. And, relative to for example Russia, logistics and physical infrastructure are good. Thanks to heavy investment, communication links are strong. The third-generation network, at least in major urban areas, is often faster than that found in many other European countries. Available data indicates that Turkey’s economic environment is, and appears likely to remain, strong; likewise the political environment is, and appears likely to remain, stable. With more "profit-focused" execution, innovation, and smart money/investors feeding into Turkey, these positive digital media trends are on track to continue for years to come. 3 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 5. TURKEY RUSSIA ISRAEL FINLAND SWEDEN BRAZIL UK US Population and Area Population 75.6m 143.4m 7.9m 5.4m 9.6m 193.3m 63.2m 315.6m Population Density 97/km2 8/km2 360/km2 18/km2 23/km2 23/km2 255.6/km2 34/km2 GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING Area 783,562/km2 17,075,400/km2 22,145/km2 303,893/km2 410,314/km2 8,514,877/km2 243,610/km2 9,161,074/km2 Largest Cities  Istanbul (13.3m)  Moscow (11.5m)  Jerusalem (0.8m)  Helsinki (0.6m)  Stockholm (1.3m)  S’Paulo (11.2m)  London (9.5m)  NY (8.2m)  Ankara (4.3m)  St. P’burg (4.8m)  Tel Aviv (0.4m)  Tampere (0.2m)  Goth’burg (0.5m)  Rio de J. (6.3m)  B’ham (2.4m)  LA (3.8m)  Izmir (2.8m)  Nov’birsk (1.5m)  Haifa (0.3m)  Turku (0.2m)  Malmӧ (0.3m)  Salvador (2.7m)  M’chester (1.9m)  Chicago (2.7m) Economic Indicators (2011 Actuals, IMF) GDP (PPP) $1,260bn $3,015bn $216bn $202bn $392bn $2,289bn $2,234bn $14,991bn GP Bullhound LLP GDP Growth 8.5% 4.3% 4.6% 2.7% 3.9% 2.7% 0.8% 1.8% Inflation Rate 6.5% 8.4% 3.5% 3.3% 2.9% 6.6% 4.5% 3.1% Unemployment Rate 9.8% 6.5% 7.1% 7.8% 7.5% 5.9% 8.0% 8.9% Users and Infrastructure Internet Users* 36.5m (48%) 70.6m (49%) 5.4m (68%) 4.8m (89%) 8.7m (91%) 87.3m (45%) 51.6m (82%) 245.5m (78%) 3G Penetration** 20% 8% n.a. n.a. 73% 41% 53% 64% Credit Card Penetration* 60% (45.4m) 5% (7.2m) n.a. n.a. n.a. 21% (40.6m) n.a. 33% (104.0m) Social Media Facebook Users*** 32.4m (89%) 7.7m (11%) 3.8m (70%) 2.3m (48%) 4.9m (56%) 65.2m (75%) 32.8m (64%) 167.4m (68%) Twitter Users*** 9.0m (25%) 5.0m (7.1%) 0.1m (1.9%) 0.3m (6.3%) 0.3m (3.4%) 41.2m (47%) 10.0m (19%) 59.0m (24%) Sample Success Stories Turkey in Context Joygame vKontakte Blocket.se Marcadolivre Rightmove Gilt Groupe Local Successes - - Markafoni Yandex Klarna Submarino Moneysupermarket Uber Shopping.com Rovio Spotify Betfair Google Global Successes - Kaspersky Terra Waze Supercell Skype King.com Facebook No. US-based Companies on 2 4 64 1 3 28 39 n/a NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex Sources: The World Bank, IMF, Capgemini, Socialbakers, Wired, Webrazzi, Beantin, Arabsocialmediareport.com, Semiocast Research VISA, KPCB, * As % of total population ** As % of mobile subscribers *** As % of Internet users 4
  • 6. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING SWOT Analysis EXHIBIT 4: SW OT ANALYSIS Strengths Opportunities  Strong macro trends and growing economy  Exponentially growing appetite for digital media  Young, educated and engaged population  Pressing move in 2013 towards more  Large Internet user base w/ room for growth innovative and profitable businesses  90%+ mobile penetration  Money-spend online to catch up with time-  Robust logistics, payments and Internet spend online (consumers and advertisers) infrastructure  Massive growth trajectory in smartphone and  Entrepreneurial energy and quick problem- broadband penetration solving capability  Foreign investors looking to invest in Turkey  Hard-working and low-cost labor force  Investment incentives from government  East/West geographical and cultural magnet  Affluent professionals coming back home Weaknesses Threats  R  Young Internet ecosystem  Immature business models failing with  Lack of private capital, small set of smart potential chilling effect on new investment institutional investors  Domestic challenges to modernization  Insufficient innovation  Internet censorship by government agencies  Unbalanced activity in eCommerce versus  Unstable conditions in nearby countries other digital media segments  Undue focus on revenue growth  Dependence on Google user acquisition  Lack of non-founding employee incentives and stock options Source: GP Bullhound Emerging Internet Ecosystem in Turkey New Internet startups are being formed and large traditional corporations are announcing new online initiatives in Turkey virtually every day. Large conglomerates such as Dogan and Dogus have numerous Internet companies under their umbrellas (such as Amazon-like HepsiBurada and Hulu-like Tvyo). The spread of entrepreneurship in Turkey is taking place not just at the corporate level, but at the startup level as well. Many Turkish professionals have embraced the Internet as the forward-looking direction for growth. There is tremendous energy behind a push to create what might one day become the Silicon Valley of Anatolia. Entrepreneurship and Internet studies are being taught in every major university across Turkey, and entrepreneurs and sector experts frequently attend panel discussions and give lectures to stimulate debate and initiative. Arda Kutsal and his team at the very popular Turkish tech portal Webrazzi are playing a major role in cultivating the Silicon Valley paradigm in Turkey — by updating Turkish entrepreneurs on a daily basis as to what’s going on in California, and how to emulate or localize these dynamic developments in Turkey. Burak Buyukdemir has done an outstanding job of mentoring and incubating up-and-coming entrepreneurs through his incubation platform eTohum. In fact, there are growing numbers of incubators and accelerators (Fit Startup Factory, Dunya Invest, Inventram, among others). The Turkish arm of Endeavor, which offers strategic advice, mentorship and global contacts to promising startups, is working hard to help mature the entrepreneurial ecosystem. The quality of advice available from some of the local counsels — such as Sidika Baysal Hatipoglu of B+B or Enver Sezer Caliskan of Caliskan & Kizilyel — compares favorably to that which one would get from seasoned professionals at Wilson Sonsini or Fenwick in Silicon Valley. 5 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 7. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING The Turkish government, recognizing these new developments as vital for boosting the accelerated growth Turkey has been experiencing in recent years, has been initiating a host of policies — legal and fiscal measures and infrastructure projects — to attract entrepreneurial activity and job seekers to the Internet sector. Especially helpful for growing startups is "Government R&D company status" incentivizing them to rent offices in numerous tax-exempt ‘technoparks’ located on university campuses throughout the country. Such government support is aimed at overcoming some of the known liabilities inherited from the past, creating a friendly, proactive and robust environment for new businesses. Despite all these positive trends, the Turkish Internet ecosystem is still young and inexperienced in regard to the mores and skill sets of Silicon Valley. The older generation is still bound by tradition and this can hamper younger players from developing and deploying the entrepreneurial spirit to which Silicon Valley is accustomed. Cronyism, lack of vision, fear of failure, insufficient skill in planning and cooperation are formidable deterrents. At times, new business leaders can be impatient and naïve, underestimating what it takes to grow a sustainable enterprise. There is a lack of institutional private funding, and existing local investors want too much control, being unwilling to allow entrepreneurs to chart untried trajectories. This results in a lack of innovation, premature abandonment of good ideas, and inadequate financial incentives. Of course, all these shortcomings are natural part of continued growth and development. And as the country’s new business leaders demonstrate that they are finding their feet in this newly developing arena, Internet entrepreneurship in Turkey is increasingly acquiring a distinctive flavor, both local and global, creating a new and as yet untapped sphere of opportunity for investors. 6 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 8. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING Private Capital Environment To date, the Turkish private capital environment has been largely dominated by local investors and a small set of outside investors. Many of these are angel investors in the form of successful entrepreneurs such as Emre Kurttepeli, founder of leading Internet portal Mynet, Hasan Aslanoba, CEO of Aslanoba, and Tolga Tatari, Ahmet Emre Sari, and Sina Afra, co-founders of eCommerce giant Markafoni. Turkish angels have generally invested in rounds of up to $1m so far, although in some cases they have joined larger rounds alongside non-angel investors. We see significant deal activity from a number of key local digital media investors. 212 and iLab in particular have been highly active and have played a key role in building awareness of and confidence in the Turkish tech scene. 212 is the largest early-stage VC fund dedicated to making investments in Internet and technology companies in Turkey, investing in a broad range of verticals including social gaming, eCommerce, cloud services and social media. iLab is unique in being both an investor and incubator, and focuses primarily on the classifieds, comparison, e-commerce and content categories – all proven models and highly scalable businesses. Founded in 2000, iLab is an icon of the Turkish tech scene - it has holdings in 12 businesses with a combined total of over 700 employees, more than 400m page views, 24m users, 6m unique monthly visitors, and a reach of 25% of the Turkish Internet market. iLab invested in GittiGidiyor in 2006 and still owns a minority stake. Generally speaking, the serious money has been provided by a small set of international investors, with the largest raises to date coming from General Atlantic ($44m for Yemek Sepeti, together with Endeavor Global) and Tiger Global Management (large stakes in Mynet and Trendyol). Hummingbird and Earlybird have also made multiple investments. As global investors get comfortable with the idea of investing in Turkey, we expect foreign capital inflows to increase significantly. EXHIBIT 5: SELECTED VC FIRMS W ITH TURKISH INTERNET INVESTMENTS Investor Key Investments Source: CapitalIQ, Webrazzi, GP Bullhound 7 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 9. eCommerce Advertising Content Gaming eTailers & Social Media Private Shopping Digital Creative Agencies Console Gaming Marketplaces MMO Group Buying & Price Internet-Only Media Companies Daily Deals Comparison Web / Download GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING Brand and Brand and Performance Ads Performance Vertical eCommerce - Sellside Ads - Buyside Traditional News Outlets Social Network Gaming GP Bullhound LLP Online Video & Music Mobile Gaming Video Ad Networks Licensed Betting Online Dating Mobile eMail Marketing Marketing 3rd Party Services Digital Media Landscape Vertical Content Enabling Technologies Online Video Classifieds, Yellow Pages, and HR Payments Mobile Internet 8
  • 10. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING Hot Topics Three Paths to Success For an emerging country such as Turkey, we see three major routes to entrepreneurial success. The first is to clone existing products/services that are already successful in developed markets, but need a lot of work to flower in new territory. To date this has been a common strategy for many Turkish entrepreneurs, and has been highly profitable for first- movers such as eBay-clone Gittigidiyor and Gilt-clone Markafoni. The second route is to create a unique or differentiated product/service for the local market only — in this case, offerings with specific appeal to the Turkish population. Peak Gaming’s flagship title Okey, for instance, has created unique appeal for Turkish gamers by successfully porting the tea house experience of playing tile games to the Internet. Players can also send each other topical gifts such as Turkish coffee, a nargila water pipe and even a belly dancer! The third and less well trodden route is to create a product/service with global appeal which can compete outside of Turkey as well as within it — here the most innovation is required. Already we see a number of success stories in the making. In mobile Internet games, for instance, we see promising, high-quality, products such as Picnic Hippo's Bucketz, Duello's iSlash, and Fugo's Wordz. Leadership Position and More Innovation Naturally, Turkish entrepreneurs and investors at first directed most of their attention and money into types of businesses with which they and consumers are most familiar and comfortable. That is, selling offline goods through online channels with a new make-up and social mechanics. Accordingly, the majority of Internet-based businesses in Turkey and MENA have been about selling offline goods online. And this has been fine, as a start. However, we have to keep in mind that by their nature online shopping businesses have relatively lower margins. In addition, low barriers to entry result in intense competition and additional margin pressure. This means that only companies in the leading position by a high margin and/or offering proprietary products will be embraced by consumers over the long term. Thus there are two ways to move forward in creating more local and global online success stories in Turkey. Either the leading players further ramp up to widen the margin between themselves and the competition, or entrepreneurs retool and come up with a wider range of innovative, diversified, differentiated, and disruptive businesses — both in eCommerce and other under-penetrated Internet sectors — that can in due course reach scale and profitability. In Turkey so far, Hepsiburada.com (online retailer), Sahibinden (online classifieds), Cicek Sepeti (online flower delivery), Yemek Sepeti (online food delivery), Mynet (online portal), Joygame (online gaming), Kariyer.net (online recruitment) have revenue scale and profitable growth. All these companies offer differentiated products and are distinguished leaders of their respective sectors. What is needed is more of them. “Copy Now” and “Sell Fast” Does Not Work Being inspired by and “cloning” a business that has been successful elsewhere can be a smart move for entrepreneurs, and may bring considerable success. And it may at first appear that this route is a shortcut compared with launching an enterprise that is brand new on the scene. This perception may, however, be deceptive. Whether it is cloning a winning business model or innovating from the ground up, local case studies support the common experience of excessive workloads before payback can be expected. 9 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 11. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING In other words, successful and enduring companies are not built easily or overnight. When we look at the time span of some of the successful online businesses in Turkey, where there is both revenue scale and profitability (or a successful exit), this point becomes evident: EXHIBIT 6: SELECTED COMPANIES W ITH REVENUE SCALE AND PROFITABILITY 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 LEGEND 7 years old Amazon Private Placement M&A (Exit) 6 years old Hummingbird Ventures iLab Ventures eBay $235m 13 years old eBay 15 years old $15m (50% stake) 4 years old CJ Games iLab Ventures iLab Ventures 14 years old 5 years old $7.2m Allegro Trayas (Naspers) Tiger Global 14 years old Management $2.5m 11 years old Intel Capital 13 years old European Founders $44m Fund Management General Atlantic 12 years old Endeavor Global Source: CapitalIQ, GP Bullhound Chicken-and-Egg Paradox Today, investors all over the world are looking for growth, but with developed countries in abeyance and many developing countries (such as Brazil and India) experiencing lower than anticipated growth, attractive opportunities without high risk are few and far between. In many respects, Turkey is becoming a standout place to look for high growth opportunities, and investors are now keen on investing in Turkey. However, many are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for more definitive signs. Optimistic and willing though they may be, they remain cautious. On the other hand, Turkish entrepreneurs require early-stage capital and seasoned investors backing them up to unlock the ecosystem’s underlying value, to maturate the nascent developments into the solid opportunities the investors are waiting for. Thus we have at the moment something of a chicken-and-egg paradox, awaiting bold moves on the part of frontrunner investors to break into a new and profitable arena. Undue Focus on User/Revenue Growth As commonly experienced in the western European and Silicon Valley start-up community, we see many examples in Turkey where Turkish entrepreneurs focus on customer acquisition and revenue growth as markers of success. However, this mentality can prove to be short- sighted. Investors, on the other hand, anticipating changes wrought by maturity, need to see not just revenue growth but a path to profitability. 10 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 12. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING For example, for long-term value, Turkish e-commerce entrepreneurs need to look beyond simply acquiring large numbers of users, instead focusing on the lifetime value of customers, conversion rates, user royalty, and organic channels of customer acquisition and other key performance indicators. Emre Aydin, founder and CEO of Cicek Sepeti, has successfully demonstrated this by a relentless focus on analyzing customer data and leveraging it to make operational enhancements, as well as ongoing product innovation. And the result is clear — over the years, Cicek Sepeti has enjoyed strong revenue growth with unprecedented EBITDA margins of around 20%, delivering flowers online, in many respects, better than its global counterparts. Appointing Additional Leadership When Needed It is very common, both in Turkey and globally, for founders of Internet companies to be wearing lots of hats. Although these talented leaders have had what it takes to get their enterprises off the ground to considerable acclaim, Turkish entrepreneurs sometimes underestimate the need to delegate authority and to widen the talent pool by bringing in professional personnel with additive experience and complementary responsibilities. Such limitation can prove to be damaging. Not only does it constrain the scope of realizable potential for the enterprise, but the leader may be blindsided by the success they’ve enjoyed, becoming overwhelmed and spending a lot of their time where they are not needed or as valuable. It was a smart decision, when Burak Balik, the founder of the highly successful online gaming company Joygame, brought in Baris Ozistek as CEO in March 2011, two years after the company’s founding. Today Burak is leading the product teams, game selection and on-going platform innovation with Baris leading day-to-day execution and dealing with the corporate development needs of the business. We expect this leadership to continue to translate to exciting milestones for Joygame that the Turkish ecosystem as a whole can be proud of — Korean entertainment and media company CJ E&M recently acquired 50% of Joygame for $15m. Another great example of successful additional leader appointment is in the case of Sina Afra joining Tolga Tatari and Ahmet Sari in order to bring organizational experience and discipline to the initial Markafoni team. The three leaders truly complemented each other with their respective roles and turned Markafoni into the great success story it has become. Naspers acquired 66% of Markafoni in 2011 and continues to back Markafoni with their new initiatives. The collective goal is to turn Markafoni into a billion dollar company and have an IPO in a few years. One-way Ticket Back Home A fairly recent phenomenon of significance for the tech sector in Turkey is the accelerating “reverse brain transfer,” whereby Turkish professionals who have been studying and working abroad are returning home to seek newly emerging opportunities. The tech sector has been a major beneficiary of this trend. For example, after 17 successful years in the US — having sold SelectMinds to Oracle — entrepreneur Cem Sertoglu returned home in 2006 and became one of the early pioneers of the (then non-existent) VC community. Two companies Sertoglu invested in — Gittigidiyor and Grupanya — have already enjoyed exits. In addition, well-regarded sector executives such as Hakan Bas of Lidyana, Rina Onur of Peak Games, and Demet Mutlu of Trendyol studied in leading US universities and returned home after a few years of investment banking experience to participate in this rapidly growing sector. In another manifestation of coming back home, there are numerous Turkish executives working abroad for US-based enterprises being asked by their companies to return to Turkey to lead their operations in the region. Just recently, Baris Aksoy was asked by Intel Capital to relocate from Silicon Valley to head their new offices in Istanbul. 11 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 13. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING Selected Sector Overviews eCommerce eCommerce is arguably the sector in the Turkish digital media landscape which has attracted the most attention and investment. The combination of a young and affluent demographic, rapid economic growth, developed infrastructure and strong Internet, mobile and credit card penetration has created fertile ground for eCommerce players to thrive. As penetration has risen, the value of domestic eCommerce transactions has dramatically increased, from around $3.1bn in 2007 to over $17bn in 2012, representing a 41% CAGR. Likewise, the volume of such transactions has surged from 54m in 2007 to 162m in 2012, a 24.5% CAGR. Even in 2012, when other sectors slowed down, domestic eCommerce spending rose by 34%, and volumes by 29%. EXHIBIT 7: VOLUME AND VALUE OF DOMESTIC ECOMMERCE TRANSACTIONS 25 162.0 180 160 20 125.9 17.3 140 120 15 91.9 12.9 100 64.6 66.5 80 10 54.1 8.6 5.8 60 5.1 5 3.1 40 20 0 0 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Transaction Value ($bn) Transaction Volume (m) Source: Interbank Card Center, xe.com, GP Bullhound Turkish people are spending more online not only in aggregate terms, but also per transaction – average basket sizes have grown 13.1% in 2012 alone. Turkey already has around 10m online shoppers. Assuming Turkish Internet penetration will continue towards EU averages, this number should reach around 16m by 2016. EXHIBIT 8: AVERAGE DOMESTIC ECOMMERCE TRANSACTION VALUES ($) 102.7 107.0 93.6 87.3 79.6 57.8 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Source: Interbank Card Center, xe.com, GP Bullhound Investor interest in Turkish eCommerce has been heightened by a series of landmark transactions which took place in 2011. First, eBay acquired 83% of Turkey’s largest auction site GittiGidiyor, in a deal rumoured to value the company at $215m. Then South African media conglomerate Naspers acquired 70% of Markafoni, one of Turkey’s largest private shopping companies, in a deal valuing it 12 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 14. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING around $200m. Lastly, Amazon invested in leading online flower store Ciceksepeti. Since then, Turkish fundraising activity has been dominated by e-commerce plays as investors seek to tap the sector’s long-term growth potential (see Selected M&A Transactions and Private Placements on pages 30-32 for details). At the same time, the sector faces a number of challenges. The success of and hype surrounding leading companies such as Markafoni, Yemek Sepeti, Grupfoni and Lidyana has spawned numerous imitations, creating intense competition for market share and driving down (already low) gross margins for the market as a whole. There are hundreds of small-scale firms in each eCommerce segment, but many lack distinctive sustainable business models and are too small to attract investment. That said, the overall long-term picture is still one of considerable optimism. Turkish per capita income currently stands at c. $10,000, and is projected to reach $60,000 by 2050. GDP growth will further the infrastructure investment needed to bring increasing numbers of Turks online. High mobile penetration will go a long way to overcoming current infrastructure issues. In addition, the ongoing and anticipated demise of large numbers of companies will bring maturity to the Turkish eCommerce sector. Entrepreneurs and investors will need to have a more considered and disciplined approach, and will need to focus more on product differentiation, sustainability, unit level economics, and paths to profitability along with revenue growth. With eCommerce penetration standing at around 0.6% of retail sales, the sector is still in its infancy with a long and profitable way to catch up with the consumption levels of already mature European counterparts. EXHIBIT 9: E-COMMERCE SHARE OF RETAIL SALES (2011, NON-TRAVEL) 10.7% 8.0% 7.4% 7.0% 6.8% 6.0% 5.8% 4.3% 3.3% 3.0% 2.5% 0.6% Source: Center for Retail Research General eTailers and Horizontal Marketplaces Leading general business-to-consumer eTailers serving Turkish customers, such as Dogan Group’s Hepsiburada and Amazon, work with large numbers of merchants and sell hundreds of thousands of products across a broad range of categories. Founded in 1998, hepsiburada.com is the largest eCommerce site in Turkey with over 6m monthly unique visitors, 900,000 monthly purchases and annual revenues of over $300m. The Company offers 350 SKUs in 32 categories and employs 250 employees. Although much smaller, Sabanci Group’s Kliksa and Hurriyet’s newcomer Yenicarsim are other prominent players in this segment. Horizontal marketplaces act as virtual bazaars that bring together merchants, small businesses, and individuals to trade almost anything. Sahibinden is currently the leading marketplace and classifieds destination in Turkey, with over 13m monthly unique visitors. It claims over 3m listings at any one time and around 50,000 new listings a day. eBay’s GittiGidiyor is currently second in the space with over 6m monthly unique visitors. eBay’s 2011 acquisition of GittiGidiyor remains the largest Internet acquisition in Turkey, with a deal value of $217m. 13 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 15. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING Online Private Shopping Online private shopping clubs offer an environment that hosts sales of designer brands for members at deep discounts. They often encourage members to introduce friends in their online social networks with additional savings and offers. UK-based Vente Privee offered this model to online customers for the first time in 2001 and remains one of the most valuable private companies in the world, with revenues in 2011 of $773m and valuations estimated between two to three billion dollars. Gilt Groupe, the first to bring the luxury sample sale to the US online market when launched in 2007, has also experienced extraordinary growth. Realizing this massive opportunity, Turks were fast to follow, with private shopping clubs Markafoni and Trendyol launching in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Other sizable (and somewhat challenged) players are Limango, Vipdükkan, Morhippo, and 1v1y.com. Group Buying and Daily Deals Group buying sites offer products and services at significantly reduced prices providing that a minimum number of buyers purchase the same item. They are viral versions of traditional daily deal sites, bolstered by integration with Facebook and various social features. Huge consumer demand and hype for this segment was reflected in the creation of 150+ new players and a rash of deals in Turkey in 2011. That year, Intel invested in Grupanya, Quants Financial Services took a majority stake in Grupfoni, and betting site Bilyoner acquired Grupca. However, with intense competition, low barriers to entry, and questionable ROI, this market has been shrinking. Currently, Istanbul-based Grupanya and Chicago-based Groupon are the leading players in Turkey, with Yakala.co, Grupfoni, and Bonubon chasing after them. Price Comparison and Lead Generation Price comparison services allow individuals to see different lists of prices for specific products from large numbers of retailers. These sites typically do not charge users to use the service, but charge the retailers a flat fee or have them pay every time a user clicks through to the retailers’ product (CPC). Since price is a big value driver of eCommerce for Turkish consumers (in many instances versus convenience), price comparison sites are quite popular. The price comparison sites with the most traffic are Akakce, Ucuzu, and iLab’s Cimri. Vertical eCommerce Companies In Turkey, 2010 was the year of private shopping, 2011 was all about group buying sites, and in 2012 vertical eTailers and Marketplaces grabbed most of the attention. These are destinations where consumers go to buy products or services in a specific vertical, varying from cars, consumer electronics, cosmetics, accessories, baby products, and home decoration. Certain verticals, such as food and flowers, already have their well-established leaders. Yemeksepeti, founded in 2001, and Ciceksepeti, founded in 2006, have done an excellent job of executing their business plans and attracting high quality investors such as General Atlantic, Amazon, and Hummingbird. Benefiting from the company’s strong and influential investor and celebrity network, Lidyana is emerging as the leading player in the accessories market. There is both huge growth and intense competition going after the “golden mom” in the baby and home decoration verticals. The travel vertical is still largely owned by offline players, and there is huge room for growth online. Vertical eCommerce in Turkey has had some consolidation — Dogan’s acquisition of Evmanya and Pera Bulvari buying WestWing — but has yet to see large M&A transactions. The investment landscape, on the other hand, has been very active as investors have started to follow companies that identify a niche and become proficient in catering to it. 14 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 16. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING EXHIBIT 10: LEADING TURKISH VERTICAL ECOMMERCE COMPANIES Vertical Leading Player(s) Selected Investor(s) Accessories and Jewellery Automotive Books Conservative Fashion Consumer Electronics Cosmetics Flowers and Gifts Food Home Decoration Mother and Baby Personalised Fashion Shoes Travel Bookings Rentals Local Events Source: GP Bullhound 15 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 17. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING Payments The Turkish payments industry has benefited greatly from the eCommerce boom of the last few years. As we discussed at the outset, Turkey’s continued GDP growth, 60% credit card and near 50% Internet penetration generated 162m eCommerce transactions in 2012, with a total transaction value of $17.3bn and a per-transaction average of $107. However, as we’ve also noted, only 0.6% of Turkish retail sales take place online, so the balance of payments is firmly weighted towards offline for the time being. This is not just a matter of economic development; there are important market factors which have caused eCommerce to lag behind. Many small businesses which would otherwise sell online lack an appropriate point of sale. Ability to absorb chargebacks is also a concern for small vendors, who may struggle to meet shipping deadlines for large volumes of purchases in a time and cost effective manner. Prior to 2009, eCommerce was largely limited to retail in small-ticket consumer electronics purchases – thin margins meant that few saw an opportunity. A number of large online retailers were also badly damaged by the 2008-2009 financial crisis, which did little to raise confidence in eCommerce. On the demand side, trust and security are important concerns for Turkish consumers. Despite all this, things are clearly changing. The explosive growth of private shopping and group buying sites has been a major boon for Turkish eCommerce. By leveraging social networks and an attractive sense of exclusivity, they have succeeded in creating environments where Turkish users feel comfortable making high-ticket purchases they would previously have made in-store. We now see close to a dozen serious payment players in Turkey: i) Leading micro/mobile payment solutions are Mikro Odeme, Paybyme, PaytoGo / GameSultan, This segment has seen the most transaction activity. On January 25, 2012, Mikro Odeme, Turkey’s leading mobile payment service, received a majority investment from London-based private equity house Mediterra Capital. And in February 2013, Asian e-payments giant MOL acquired a majority stake in PaytoGo/GameSultan. ii) Leading digital wallet solutions are Interbank Card Center’s BKM Express, Turkcell’s Cuzdan (Wallet), Paypal, and Vodafone’s Cuzdan (Wallet). These digital wallet platforms make eCommerce purchases easier and faster by letting users register their debit, credit and/or prepaid cards on the platform in advance. iii) Rapidly growing pre-paid solutions include Ininal Mastercard, Vodafone’s CepNakit Kart, Turkcell’s Cep-T Para Cart, Magir Kart, and Paysafecard. Ininal is the only independent player that offers reloadable prepaid cards with 90% market reach given its large merchant ecosystem and retail distribution system. iv) POS and merchants solutions include Paypal, PayU, Mikro Odeme/3pay, ipara, and multipaynet. Given the rising acceptance of eCommerce in Turkey and considerable room for growth in terms of Internet, mobile and credit card penetration, the payments vertical will continue to remain a competitive but exciting space. 16 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 18. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING Gaming Turkish gamers — a quarter of the population — are proud to call themselves gamers, and have always embraced gaming without limits. There was a point in 2008, however, when the Ministry of Finance banned Knight Online, Irvine-based K2 Networks’ micro-transaction- based F2P massively-multiplayer online game on the basis that, “there were thousands of people in Turkey that were becoming addicted to games and companies were earning profits without being taxed.” Knight Online was a victim of its success — the profits from Turkish players were reaching $1m a month. The ban was unfortunate, but the game’s popularity is an indicator of the very promising online gaming sector in Turkey. EXHIBIT 11: TURKEY’S GAMING POPULATION (2012) 76 m (100%) Total Turkish population 37 m (48%) Internet Population 22 m (29%) Active Gamers 11 m (15%) Paying Gamers Source: Newzoo Turkey is estimated to have approximately 22m active gamers, or 29% of its total population of 75.6m. Of these 22m, more than half are estimated by Newzoo to be spending money on games. EXHIBIT 12: MONEY SPENT ON GAMES IN 2012 - DISTRIBUTION Casual websites Console Social games 9% networks 24% 9% Mobile phones 10% PC/Mac boxed MMO games 12% 21% PC/Mac download 15% Source: Newzoo According to recent Newzoo research, the Turkish gaming market is estimated to reach $450m in 2012. Although more traditional genres (console, PC, and massively-multiplayer online games) still comprise the largest share (at 24%, 21% and 12% respectively), emerging platforms such as social networks and mobile Internet are already at 20% levels with projections for much higher growth and innovative vehicles, such as in-app purchases, for monetization. 17 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 19. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING EXHIBIT 13: GROW TH IN MENA INTERNET USERS 150m 70m 15m 2006A 2011A 2015E Source: Arabnet and Discover Digital Arabica In addition to Turkey, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region offers attractive conditions for gaming growth and a significant area of expansion for Turkish gaming companies. According to Arabnet and Discover Digital Arabica, in 2011 the MENA region had around 72m Internet users and is expected to have 150m by 2015, representing an annual growth rate of 21%. Turkey is also a young demographic; the average age is 28. Utilizing the new opportunities afforded by global app store distribution on social networks and Mobile Internet devices, small players in atypical locations have been developing gaming app revenues of a million dollars a day. Turkish gaming companies are becoming alert to such opportunities, and investors are on the lookout for those most likely to break through. PC/Console Gaming According to Newzoo, PC and console gaming currently occupies the largest share of the Turkish gaming market, estimated at around $170m each generating around $85m. Playstation 3 was the dominant console platform with 80% market share by hardware and software sales in H1 2012, with Xbox and Wii sharing the rest of the console market. On the PC and console gaming side, we cannot point to a successful Turkish game developer since the large global developers/publishers dominate the Turkish market. Top publishers are EA, Activision, Konami, Take 2, and UBISOFT. As per 2012 sales, Turkish players favored the following games the most: Pro Evolution Soccer, Fifa, Call of Duty, Medal of Honour, and Need for Speed. In addition to these multi-platform games, Diablo 3, Football Manager and Sims 3 were the most popular titles on PC. The only semi-Turkish global success story is German-based Crytec, led by three Turkish- German brothers, Cevat, Faruk, and Avni Yerli. The company is known for creating exceptionally high-quality games for the PC and next-generation consoles, powered by proprietary 3D-game technology CryENGINE. The company has been on an aggressive expansion spree over the last several years opening offices in the United States, Ukraine, South Korea and, most recently, in the founding brothers’ ancestral Turkey. It is worth mentioning that, Mr. Yerli recently announced that all Crytek games would be free-to-play going forward. It is rumored that the Company’s most recent free-to-play first person shooter game Warface — still in beta — is generating a few million dollars a month in Russia alone. MMO Games Massive multiplayer online (MMO) games in Turkey are hugely popular. According to Newzoo, more than one in five dollars spent on games in Turkey goes to MMO, higher than in many other countries. Turkey is estimated to have around 9.8m regular MMO gamers, 80% of whom are under 35. The share of paying MMO gamers is high at 46%, although average monthly spending is several times lower than in the US. 96% of MMO gamers play free-to-play and 27% play subscription-based MMO games. In revenue terms, free-to-play games take slightly more than half. Spending on MMO and console games at gaming cafes is estimated to add at least another $30m to the picture. The growth and popularity of MMO 18 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 20. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING games has been driven by the same factors driving social gaming – a young population, high Internet penetration and usage, and rising disposable income - important for covering the cost of subscriptions. That said, ultimately MMO in Turkey, like MMORPGs, caters more to hardcore gamers than casual ones. Established in 2009, the leading Turkish MMO publisher is Joygame. Unlike social gaming company Peak Games, Joygame does not produce any titles, but localizes and publishes existing ones into the local market. However, the company truly shines when it comes to publishing foreign titles in Turkey, and the user metrics, revenue growth, and strong margin profile speak to this fact. The team spend days working on the graphics, language, local jargon, and analyzing user data as part of the localization process. The company currently has 15m registered users, 2.5m monthly active users and 400,000 daily active users. Wolfteam is the biggest title of Joygame and actually the most popular MMO first-person shooter (FPS) game in the region, estimated to be generating above $2m in monthly revenues. Joygame started out by publishing localized titles for the Turkish market only, but in 2011 it expanded its operations into MENA, first by opening an office in Egypt. Korea- based CJ E&M acquired 50% of Joygame in March 2013. Sobee is a truly Turkish multiplayer game development company founded by highly regarded video game developer Mevlut Dinc. Mr. Dinc moved to his homeland after developing global hits such as the First Samurai and Street Racer to share his wealth of knowledge with the Turkish game developers and gamers. The company develops server based multiplayer games that are available and customised for a Turkish audience. Social Network Gaming Social network gaming typically includes games that are played on social networks and/or have some type of social graph integration. These games are generally monetized through virtual currency, free-to-play and have strong virality components attached to them. Facebook, which went from 100m users in 2008 to 1bn in 2012, has been the main driving force in the surge of social network gaming. EXHIBIT 14: TOP FACEBOOK DEVELOPERS BY DAU (JAN 2013) Company Company Rank Name Country Rank Name Country Metrics Metrics MAU DAU MAU DAU 1 Zynga US 142.3m 16.5m 13 FreshPlanet US 10.2m 1.0m 2 King.com UK 38.3m 4.7m 14 Rovio Finland 10.3m 1.0m 3 Electronic Arts US 17.4m 3.7m 15 Geewa Czech Rep. 10.1m 1.0m 4 Peak Games Turkey 11.8m 3.4m 16 Tetris Online US 5.1m 1.0m 5 Wooga Germany 21.6m 3.2m 17 Kiloo Games Denmark 5.0m 1.0m 6 Social Point Spain 21.3m 2.1m 18 SGN US 6.4m 1.0m 7 FunPlus Game China 9.8m 2.0m 19 6waves Hong Kong 2.2m 0.8m 8 Playdom US 7.4m 1.7m 20 THX Games Hungary 2.8m 0.7m 9 RockYou! US 2.9m 1.2m 21 Boyaa China 4.3m 0.7m 10 Playtika Israel 6.1m 1.1m 22 Digital Chocolate US 4.4m 0.5m 11 PlayQ US 5.6m 1.1m 23 Mynet Turkey 3.8m 0.5m 12 Miniclip.comz UK 6.1m 1.1m 24 Qublix Canada 3.6m 0.4m Source: Appdata.com Out of 32.4m Turkish Facebook users, 89% play games. After three years of operations, Zynga’s smash hit Farmville franchise is still the most successful franchise on Facebook, which speaks to the retention and monetization potential of successful social network games. Turkish people are participants in the success of Farmville - 1 out of 8 Internet users in Turkey plays Farmville. 19 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 21. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING The Turkish poster child of global social gaming is Istanbul-based Peak Games, a company which in little over three years has become the world’s fourth largest gaming company on Facebook by daily active users (DAUs). This is impressive, since DAU is a metric that measures highly engaged users and is a proxy for monetization potential. The company’s flagship title is Okey, a digital version of a popular Turkish tile-based game usually played with four people. After resounding domestic success with Okey, Peak released Turkey and MENA focused Happy Farm, a farming simulation game in the style of Zynga’s Farmville. While Happy Farm’s core mechanics are similar to Farmville’s, notable modifications include the use of Arabic instead of English, and characters in local dress (and the absence of pigs). Mynet is another Turkish company that gets a top-25 spot on Facebook’s developer leaderboard. Whereas Peak Games is a dedicated game development and localization studio, Mynet is a diversified Internet media company with a massive user base on its web portal, mobile apps and Facebook, from which online games can be distributed. Mobile Internet Gaming In terms of the number of new games in development, media consumption and monetization, mobile Internet is the current rising star in the Turkish gaming landscape. Despite local complaints with regard to the lack of local developer talent (those who can write code in objective C or Unity) we expect to see more and more high quality games developed in Turkey targeting local and global mobile audiences through Mobile Internet devices such as iPhone, iPad, and Android. EXHIBIT 15: TOP 15 GROSSING IPHONE GAMES IN TURKEY (JAN 2013) Turkish Developer Localised Smaller than 50MB Free-to-Play 1 8 15 14 Source: Apple iOS and Google Play App Stores Although there are a large number of Turkish game developers offering their games on the Turkish app store, only Peak Games finds itself a spot in the top 15 grossing rankings with its highly successful mobile game, Okey Plus. Out of 15 top-grossing games, eight of them are localized for Turkish players, which shows the importance of localization. Two other important points to highlight from our analysis concern the file size and business model. When a mobile game is more than 50 megabytes, consumers cannot download it on the fly, through 3G mobile networks, which creates significant friction. Numbers speak to this fact. 14 of the 15 top-grossing games on the Turkish app store are less than 50 megabytes. In terms of the business model, all of the 15 top-grossing games are free-to-download and monetize through in-app purchases. Finland-based Supercell has the perfect recipe. The company’s highly successful social mobile games, Clash of Clans and Hayday — which are both localized, less than 50 megabytes, and free-to-play — have been consistently ranked first and second in the top-grossing charts in the last few months. Turkish mobile game developers have not only achieved some domestic success, but global recognition as well—with studios such as FUGO, Duello and Picnic Hippo achieving good traction in a very short time. Founded in 2009, FUGO has been a global name in mobile gaming through its popular word challenge game Wordz, which has been distributed in 35 languages downloaded over five million times. Duello, a developer of casual mobile games for 20 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 22. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING all ages, was founded in 2010 and has accumulated over 17m installations to date, over one million paid downloads and close to 3m monthly active users through its popular iSlash franchise. Moreover, it has already reached profitability with no outside financing, and is preparing to roll out additional titles to capitalise on its success to date. Picnic Hippo, which was founded in 2011, has also become a global success story with Bucketz, a simple and humorous touch screen game which has been featured by Apple on 146 app stores worldwide and is the number one ranking game by iPhone Quality Index, a site which condenses critical opinion on apps from across the web into a definitive score. All of these studios have produced innovative, popular and internationally accessible titles. They are also small and lean, with no more than ten staff each. Licensed Online Betting Turkey has a complicated relationship with gambling. Although betting is officially illegal under Turkish law, licensed online betting is permitted in a number of selective cases including the state lottery (Piyango), sports betting (Sportoto) and gambling on horse racing. The national lottery is something of an institution for Turkish people and forms a billion dollar market. Soccer and horse racing are also highly popular - and the sports lottery generates in excess of $1.5bn yearly, with track-side betting bringing in around $700m. The sports lottery has been the primary driver behind the shift in Turkey towards betting online – unsurprising given that the Internet provides a constant stream of sports news and insight. Licensed online players are estimated to represent approximately 15% of total betting spend, and growing. The leading “legal” players are Bilyoner.com, Nesine, Tuttur, Oley, and Birebin. Similar to the United States, several changes have been made to Turkish gambling laws in the last decade making it illegal for gambling companies to target Turkish citizens with their products. While there are no legally-licensed Internet gambling websites operating out of the country, foreign operators continue to target Turkish players. Betsson, for example, received more than a quarter of its revenue from Turkey last year. In addition, Sportingbet recently sold its highly popular Turkish bookmaking service Superbahis.com to GVC Sports for approximately $200m, despite attempts from Turkish regulations to stop the sale. The Turkish government has recently announced its intention to sell Sportoto - its only legal sports betting organization - as part of a privatization bid expected to raise in excess of $10bn. 21 GP Bullhound LLP
  • 23. GP B ULLHOUND – T URKISH I NTERNET REPORT – T URKISH COFFEE : GET I T W HILE I T’ S B REWING Digital Agencies, Online Advertising and Marketing Both globally and in Turkey, the Internet is the fastest growing advertising medium, attracting advertisers with its rapidly expanding audience, extensive reach, interactive nature and ability to target specific demographics and performance. EXHIBIT 16: GROW TH AND ALLOCATION OF TURKISH ADVERTISING SPEND ($BN) 3.2 Radio 2011A: Billboards 3% $2.4bn 2.8 7% 2.4 Internet 2.0 8% 1.5 TV Print Adverts Media 57% 24% 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E Source: Turkish Association of Advertising Agencies, GP Bullhound Overall advertising in Turkey is estimated to be growing at a nearly 20% CAGR from $1.5bn in 2009 to $3.2bn in 2013, with online advertising representing 10% of the market. Other online verticals and online advertising can be expected to benefit each other in turn: as more and more media consumption and spending shifts online, so will advertising dollars. Conversely, with increased online ad spend, Internet companies and online retailers can be expected to capture new consumers through both brand, performance, and video advertising. According to Mediascope Europe, users spend more time with the Internet and TV than any other media (18 hours per week on each), but last year, advertisers still spent three times more on print media and six times more on television than they do on online advertising. In addition, most Turkish advertisers still allocate far less of their marketing budgets to digital and online marketing – around only 10% compared to a global average of 27%. These disparities are expected to be the driving force of double-digit growth rates in online and video advertising spend in the years ahead. EXHIBIT 17: AVERAGE HOURS SPENT ONLINE PER MONTH PER USER (2012) 39.1 30.7 28.9 27.8 27.6 26.3 25.5 25.2 24.7 24.5 UK Turkey France Finland Europe Spain Russia Germany Sweden Worldwide Source: Turkish Association of Advertising Agencies People in Turkey spend more time online than any other European nation except the UK – this gives advertisers a potentially long window of opportunity within which to engage and capture consumers. In addition, online media consumption habits are shifting dramatically. Passive, traditional, one-way media consumption is rapidly evolving towards active 22 GP Bullhound LLP