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What’s Next:
The World of
Fake News
Welcome
Iain Bundred
EMEA Managing Director for PR & Influence at
Ogilvy and UK Executive Director for the WPP
Government & Public Sector Practice
José Arteaga
Creative Digital Strategist
Ogilvy Consulting
Tell us
where you
are dialing
in from!
What’s the weather
like in your city?
Do you
want this
deck?
It will be available for download
shortly after the webinar on:
slideshare.net/socialogilvy
Ogilvy staff: It’s also on
The Market!
themarket.ogilvy.com
MISINFORMATIONORMISINFORMED?
Iain Bundred
Executive Director, WPP Government & Public Sector Practice
THURSDAY20THSEPTEMBER2018
Why misinformation matters
We all must
manage and
combat it
What’s new in fake
news
The risk of further
dividing society
PUTTING
THE NEW INTO FAKE NEWS
Governments, brands and key executives may
face completely false campaigns mounted
against them in high volume and rapid
frequency
For Mr Trump, fake news is
what is propagated by his
critics in the mainstream media
he loves to loathe.
For his critics, it is the
dissemination by Mr Trump
and his supporters of
“alternative facts” — a
phrase coined by members
of his campaign to explain
persistent anomalies in their
account of reality.
MISINFORMATION
DISINFORMATION
CLICKBAIT DIVISIVE/TARGETED
PROPAGANDA DEEP FAKES
GENUINE MISUNDERSTANDING STATE SPONSORED
"A lie can travel half
way around the
world while the
truth is putting on
its shoes."
−Mark Twain
or Jonathan Swift?
Misinformation through the ages
Glyndwr Michael
‘Major Martin’
Pakistan’s
“Vaccination Wars”
Rameses II
Reuters Institute | Digital News Report 2017
Social fuelling
misinformation
Rapid spread of unverified
information
Algorithms drive
confirmation bias
Little regulation
15
Why we shouldn’t laugh
Can we tell the difference?
Adults’ Media Use and Attitudes Report | Ofcom report May 2018
Edelman Trust Barometer
Shaking our confidence in every country
Fake News and Disinformation Online | European Commission February 2018
With
more
to come
TAPPING INTO A
SOCIETAL SHIFT
Media is becoming disintermediated
We are increasingly looking
into filter bubbles
The rise of alternative
media
Any growth in alternative
media outlets is a cause for
concern.
Without editorial balance
they can lead to a rise in
online disinformation,
feeding echo chambers.
And it’s getting
easier to mislead
RUSSIAN BOTS? ACTIVISTS? CITIZEN JOURNALISTS?
26
Who is responsible for sharing ‘fake news’?
Events typically have a 72hr public reaction peak
Example incident conversation assessment, Blue State Digital, 2017
Automated accounts often shout loudest at first swaying momentum
Bot versus public post comparison, Blue State Digital, 2018
Consistent with natural biases
Wired
for dirt.
Living in digital.
Our brain has not evolved
as rapidly as our
environment has.
Because we are using an
old version of software
(our brain) not best suited
for our current
environment, COGNITIVE
BIASES occur.
COGNITIVE BIASES are
disconnects that lead us
to inaccurate or poor
decisions.
This leads to struggling to
cope today with an
outdated decision-making
system. We are
“predictably irrational.”
Ogilvy
Center for Behavioral Science
Countering worldviews
Yale Cultural Cognition Project
Dan Kahan’s view on misinformation
Six conclusions (conjectures):
1. The public’s engagement with fake news is not credulous; it is
motivated
2. “Fact checking” and like means of correcting false belief are
unlikely to be effective and could in fact backfire
3. “Fake news” of the Macedonian variety is not particularly
consequential
4. What is potentially consequential are the forms of
“counterfeit social proof” distributed by the Russians
5. Information that is most likely to preempt or reverse features
vivid and believable examples of diverse groups
6. Fact polarization is a problem for science communication but
it isn’t a consequence of science communication
Dan Kahan, Cultural Cognition Project, June 2018
In short, WE are responsible
“Contrary to conventional
wisdom, robots accelerated
the spread of true and false
news at the same rate,
implying that false news
spreads more than the truth
because
humans, not robots,
are more likely to spread it.”
Vosoughi, Roy and Aral paper in Science Magazine March 2018
WHAT CAN YOU
DO?
…in different ways
Governments around the world are
responding
Regulation vs communication
TAXATION REGULATION LEGISLATION COMMUNICATIONTAXATION REGULATION LEGISLATION COMMUNICATION
Some are stepping in…
Before we begin
Stick to the
strategy
Clarify, don’t
amplify
Never mislead
1 Contain
Remove the
noise
Generate
actionable
insights
Detect
volume
signals
A lot of new tools have apis that can be adapted for specific projects
OsoMe is a joint project of
the Indiana University
Network Science Institute
and the Centre for
Complex Networks and
Systems research.
They develop tools with
apis that can be adapted to
best suit project needs
such as Botometer and
Hoaxy.
Custom technology can estimate scale and % level of automated messaging
Example bot identifying spectrum, Blue State Digital, 2018
For UK audiences, we have to
caveat that we’re using a self-
stated, unverified location set
by the user or IP address
(where applicable).
Global audiences often
contain UK individuals also so
manually tagged, qualitative
grouping can be more
accurate.
2 Counter narrate
Methodically
target those
exposed
Respond
authentically
(mobile-first)
Contextualise
quickly
Creating audience panels can highlight where trends are segmented
Understanding listening volumes by segment, Blue State Digital, 2018
At times, it may be revealing to
construct lists to build audience panels
that reveal whether insights transcend
or trend within segments.
For instance, exporting Twitter lists or
using Opinion monitor within Crimson
Hexagon you can construct panels that
represent political or media audiences.
3 Calculate
Analyse daily Co-ordinate across
Government
Look for trends
and
vulnerabilities
Layering publically available information together constructs a view
Monthly search volumes
673,000
Monthly social & news
mentions
80,000
Monthly search data
This is important for us to be aware of and consider as part of the
consumer perception market-level view. It will likely review topics
and triggers that lead to our audience taking action. A digital search
is often the first expressed desire to ‘find out more’. Having said
that, qualitative research would focus on social and online news
Monthly social data - owned, earned & paid
Within our tools view, we are considering technology that can tell us
about:
Owned: our channel presence and impact, perception
Earned: how our audiences are talking about us
Paid: what impact paid support is having for us and select competitors
Monthly social data - channel split
Some technologies are encrypted and different tools offer differing levels of access to
different platforms - we’re considering how we use a mix that would allow us a
qualitative view of conversations taking place across Facebook, Google +, YouTube,
Instagram, Tumblr Twitter, Sina Weibo, Tencent Wibo, Todou, Youku, LINE, Wechat,
VK
Online news
We need to ensure we’re looking at articles and key messages generated as well as
consumer reaction and conversation generated across networks via articles.
Twitter interactions
5,000
YouTube interactions
4,800
Facebook interactions
17,500
Instagram interactions
45,500
News articles
240
Blogs
75
Google + interactions
3,900
Forums
27
4 Campaign
Question
everything
Build campaigning
mentality
Get ahead of the
next meme
Example listening to impact response
How can you be better prepared?
Don’t just launch,
prepare for
attacks
Listen and
understand
audience
Consider a blend of
planned and
responsive comms
Questions?
Iain Bundred
EMEA Managing Director for PR & Influence at
Ogilvy and UK Executive Director for the WPP
Government & Public Sector Practice
José Arteaga
Creative Digital Strategist
Ogilvy Consulting
Thank you.
THANK YOU.
FORMOREONMISINFORMATION&WPPGOVERNMENT:
iain.bundred@ogilvy.com

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What's Next: The World of Fake News

  • 1. Powered by What’s Next: The World of Fake News
  • 2. Welcome Iain Bundred EMEA Managing Director for PR & Influence at Ogilvy and UK Executive Director for the WPP Government & Public Sector Practice José Arteaga Creative Digital Strategist Ogilvy Consulting
  • 3. Tell us where you are dialing in from! What’s the weather like in your city?
  • 4. Do you want this deck? It will be available for download shortly after the webinar on: slideshare.net/socialogilvy Ogilvy staff: It’s also on The Market! themarket.ogilvy.com
  • 5. MISINFORMATIONORMISINFORMED? Iain Bundred Executive Director, WPP Government & Public Sector Practice THURSDAY20THSEPTEMBER2018
  • 6. Why misinformation matters We all must manage and combat it What’s new in fake news The risk of further dividing society
  • 8.
  • 9. Governments, brands and key executives may face completely false campaigns mounted against them in high volume and rapid frequency
  • 10. For Mr Trump, fake news is what is propagated by his critics in the mainstream media he loves to loathe. For his critics, it is the dissemination by Mr Trump and his supporters of “alternative facts” — a phrase coined by members of his campaign to explain persistent anomalies in their account of reality.
  • 11. MISINFORMATION DISINFORMATION CLICKBAIT DIVISIVE/TARGETED PROPAGANDA DEEP FAKES GENUINE MISUNDERSTANDING STATE SPONSORED
  • 12. "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." −Mark Twain or Jonathan Swift?
  • 13. Misinformation through the ages Glyndwr Michael ‘Major Martin’ Pakistan’s “Vaccination Wars” Rameses II
  • 14. Reuters Institute | Digital News Report 2017 Social fuelling misinformation Rapid spread of unverified information Algorithms drive confirmation bias Little regulation
  • 15. 15
  • 17. Can we tell the difference? Adults’ Media Use and Attitudes Report | Ofcom report May 2018
  • 19. Shaking our confidence in every country Fake News and Disinformation Online | European Commission February 2018
  • 22. Media is becoming disintermediated
  • 23. We are increasingly looking into filter bubbles
  • 24. The rise of alternative media Any growth in alternative media outlets is a cause for concern. Without editorial balance they can lead to a rise in online disinformation, feeding echo chambers.
  • 26. RUSSIAN BOTS? ACTIVISTS? CITIZEN JOURNALISTS? 26 Who is responsible for sharing ‘fake news’?
  • 27. Events typically have a 72hr public reaction peak Example incident conversation assessment, Blue State Digital, 2017
  • 28. Automated accounts often shout loudest at first swaying momentum Bot versus public post comparison, Blue State Digital, 2018
  • 30. Wired for dirt. Living in digital. Our brain has not evolved as rapidly as our environment has. Because we are using an old version of software (our brain) not best suited for our current environment, COGNITIVE BIASES occur. COGNITIVE BIASES are disconnects that lead us to inaccurate or poor decisions. This leads to struggling to cope today with an outdated decision-making system. We are “predictably irrational.” Ogilvy Center for Behavioral Science
  • 32. Dan Kahan’s view on misinformation Six conclusions (conjectures): 1. The public’s engagement with fake news is not credulous; it is motivated 2. “Fact checking” and like means of correcting false belief are unlikely to be effective and could in fact backfire 3. “Fake news” of the Macedonian variety is not particularly consequential 4. What is potentially consequential are the forms of “counterfeit social proof” distributed by the Russians 5. Information that is most likely to preempt or reverse features vivid and believable examples of diverse groups 6. Fact polarization is a problem for science communication but it isn’t a consequence of science communication Dan Kahan, Cultural Cognition Project, June 2018
  • 33. In short, WE are responsible “Contrary to conventional wisdom, robots accelerated the spread of true and false news at the same rate, implying that false news spreads more than the truth because humans, not robots, are more likely to spread it.” Vosoughi, Roy and Aral paper in Science Magazine March 2018
  • 35. …in different ways Governments around the world are responding
  • 36. Regulation vs communication TAXATION REGULATION LEGISLATION COMMUNICATIONTAXATION REGULATION LEGISLATION COMMUNICATION
  • 38. Before we begin Stick to the strategy Clarify, don’t amplify Never mislead
  • 40. A lot of new tools have apis that can be adapted for specific projects OsoMe is a joint project of the Indiana University Network Science Institute and the Centre for Complex Networks and Systems research. They develop tools with apis that can be adapted to best suit project needs such as Botometer and Hoaxy.
  • 41. Custom technology can estimate scale and % level of automated messaging Example bot identifying spectrum, Blue State Digital, 2018 For UK audiences, we have to caveat that we’re using a self- stated, unverified location set by the user or IP address (where applicable). Global audiences often contain UK individuals also so manually tagged, qualitative grouping can be more accurate.
  • 42. 2 Counter narrate Methodically target those exposed Respond authentically (mobile-first) Contextualise quickly
  • 43. Creating audience panels can highlight where trends are segmented Understanding listening volumes by segment, Blue State Digital, 2018 At times, it may be revealing to construct lists to build audience panels that reveal whether insights transcend or trend within segments. For instance, exporting Twitter lists or using Opinion monitor within Crimson Hexagon you can construct panels that represent political or media audiences.
  • 44. 3 Calculate Analyse daily Co-ordinate across Government Look for trends and vulnerabilities
  • 45. Layering publically available information together constructs a view Monthly search volumes 673,000 Monthly social & news mentions 80,000 Monthly search data This is important for us to be aware of and consider as part of the consumer perception market-level view. It will likely review topics and triggers that lead to our audience taking action. A digital search is often the first expressed desire to ‘find out more’. Having said that, qualitative research would focus on social and online news Monthly social data - owned, earned & paid Within our tools view, we are considering technology that can tell us about: Owned: our channel presence and impact, perception Earned: how our audiences are talking about us Paid: what impact paid support is having for us and select competitors Monthly social data - channel split Some technologies are encrypted and different tools offer differing levels of access to different platforms - we’re considering how we use a mix that would allow us a qualitative view of conversations taking place across Facebook, Google +, YouTube, Instagram, Tumblr Twitter, Sina Weibo, Tencent Wibo, Todou, Youku, LINE, Wechat, VK Online news We need to ensure we’re looking at articles and key messages generated as well as consumer reaction and conversation generated across networks via articles. Twitter interactions 5,000 YouTube interactions 4,800 Facebook interactions 17,500 Instagram interactions 45,500 News articles 240 Blogs 75 Google + interactions 3,900 Forums 27
  • 47. Example listening to impact response
  • 48. How can you be better prepared? Don’t just launch, prepare for attacks Listen and understand audience Consider a blend of planned and responsive comms
  • 49. Questions? Iain Bundred EMEA Managing Director for PR & Influence at Ogilvy and UK Executive Director for the WPP Government & Public Sector Practice José Arteaga Creative Digital Strategist Ogilvy Consulting