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Project “Steer Clear”
102 Total Interviews
Challenge:
How can we stop space
collisions from making
space unusable?
Team Space Evaders
Our plan:
New method to evaluate
debris creation.
Sponsor: Amber Charlesworth, Office of Space and Advanced Technology
Kate Boudreau
Junior, Biomedical
Computation
boudreau.kate@gmail.com
Background:
Bioinformatic
research
Expertise:
Biocomputation
Tyler Dammann
Junior, Computer
Science
tylerdammann@gmail.com
Background:
Software, computer
science
Expertise:
Technology, data
Dave Gabler
Masters, Business/
Public Policy
davesgabler@gmail.com
Background:
Air Force, business
Expertise:
Strategy, aerospace,
management
Matthew Kaseman
Freshman, Aerospace
Engineering
kaseman.matt@gmail.com
Background: Army,
gov’t contracting
Expertise:
Engineering
implementation
Team Space Evaders
Increasing # of satellites
Space debris threatens
critical infrastructure
(GPS, communications, etc)
The Challenge
Increasing collisions
More debris
Interviewed over 100 stakeholders
Mapped the status quo
Built simple prototypes to test our ideas
Lean methodology
First industry process map
Focused on data flow in the
collision avoidance system
The Path to Collisions
Tracking Modeling Warnings Response
“This will be an eye-opener to many
people!”
- Amber, State Department
Original Hypotheses - Tracking
1) Collision warnings based
on estimates only
GPS
position
Observed
position
We can improve avoidance capability through:
- Communication - Data Sharing
2) Satellites know
precisely where they are
Solution!
We tested many ideas
Worldwide Operator
phone book
GPS data-sharing
Define debris size/shape
(helps prediction accuracy)
Small satellite
ID hardware
Answer #1:
This is a small part of the problem
Answer #2:
Satellite operator decision matrix
Warning?
Maneuver?
< 1% chanceY
N
N Y
< .01% chance < .01% chance
< 1% chance
but now YOU
caused it
< 1% chance
“My chances are no better if I move, so why
would I assume the responsibility?”
- Commercial Satellite operator
Data sharing isn’t the problem - technical uncertainty
makes the whole process unreliable
The underlying problem?
Collision warnings are only
“in the ballpark”
Operators need MUCH more detail
“This insight will frame our approach to this
problem and has given us a new way forward
with the international community”
- Deputy Assistant Secretary
The Path to Collisions
Tracking Modeling Warnings Response
Mission
Planning
Too much decentralized, limited
accountability decision-making
Space as a Tragedy of the Commons
Cost/schedule limitations can
prevent debris mitigation efforts
Vague debris mitigation standards =
significant design leeway
Fix the Commons Problem
Make choices and
consequences transparent and
accountable
Debris Responsibility Score
Final MVP: Debris Responsibility Score
Time in Space Size of Object Congestion of Orbit
Risk of On-Orbit BreakupPlanned Mission Debris
“If you can show me it
works, I would use it.”
-U.S. Government
Regulator
“This needs to be
presented at the next
satellite operators
conference”
-International satellite
operator
“I’ve wanted to do
this myself for
years!”
-Leading industry
expert/journalist
Iteration/
peer review
Best
Practice
Community
Standard
Deployment: Iteration & Acceptance
Deployment: Expected Use Cases
NGO monitors tradable
credits
international
policy
Summary
Instead of avoiding as many debris items as
operators choose to put in space...
...Our rating will work to prevent new debris from
getting there at all

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Space Evaders Lessons Learned H4Dip Stanford 2016

  • 1. Project “Steer Clear” 102 Total Interviews Challenge: How can we stop space collisions from making space unusable? Team Space Evaders Our plan: New method to evaluate debris creation. Sponsor: Amber Charlesworth, Office of Space and Advanced Technology
  • 2. Kate Boudreau Junior, Biomedical Computation boudreau.kate@gmail.com Background: Bioinformatic research Expertise: Biocomputation Tyler Dammann Junior, Computer Science tylerdammann@gmail.com Background: Software, computer science Expertise: Technology, data Dave Gabler Masters, Business/ Public Policy davesgabler@gmail.com Background: Air Force, business Expertise: Strategy, aerospace, management Matthew Kaseman Freshman, Aerospace Engineering kaseman.matt@gmail.com Background: Army, gov’t contracting Expertise: Engineering implementation Team Space Evaders
  • 3. Increasing # of satellites Space debris threatens critical infrastructure (GPS, communications, etc) The Challenge Increasing collisions More debris
  • 4. Interviewed over 100 stakeholders Mapped the status quo Built simple prototypes to test our ideas Lean methodology
  • 5. First industry process map Focused on data flow in the collision avoidance system
  • 6. The Path to Collisions Tracking Modeling Warnings Response “This will be an eye-opener to many people!” - Amber, State Department
  • 7. Original Hypotheses - Tracking 1) Collision warnings based on estimates only GPS position Observed position We can improve avoidance capability through: - Communication - Data Sharing 2) Satellites know precisely where they are Solution!
  • 8. We tested many ideas Worldwide Operator phone book GPS data-sharing Define debris size/shape (helps prediction accuracy) Small satellite ID hardware
  • 9. Answer #1: This is a small part of the problem
  • 10. Answer #2: Satellite operator decision matrix Warning? Maneuver? < 1% chanceY N N Y < .01% chance < .01% chance < 1% chance but now YOU caused it < 1% chance “My chances are no better if I move, so why would I assume the responsibility?” - Commercial Satellite operator
  • 11. Data sharing isn’t the problem - technical uncertainty makes the whole process unreliable The underlying problem? Collision warnings are only “in the ballpark” Operators need MUCH more detail
  • 12. “This insight will frame our approach to this problem and has given us a new way forward with the international community” - Deputy Assistant Secretary
  • 13. The Path to Collisions Tracking Modeling Warnings Response Mission Planning
  • 14. Too much decentralized, limited accountability decision-making Space as a Tragedy of the Commons Cost/schedule limitations can prevent debris mitigation efforts Vague debris mitigation standards = significant design leeway
  • 15. Fix the Commons Problem Make choices and consequences transparent and accountable Debris Responsibility Score
  • 16. Final MVP: Debris Responsibility Score Time in Space Size of Object Congestion of Orbit Risk of On-Orbit BreakupPlanned Mission Debris
  • 17. “If you can show me it works, I would use it.” -U.S. Government Regulator “This needs to be presented at the next satellite operators conference” -International satellite operator “I’ve wanted to do this myself for years!” -Leading industry expert/journalist
  • 19. Deployment: Expected Use Cases NGO monitors tradable credits international policy
  • 20. Summary Instead of avoiding as many debris items as operators choose to put in space... ...Our rating will work to prevent new debris from getting there at all