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Project “Steer Clear”
102 Total Interviews
Challenge:
How can we stop space
collisions from making
space unusable?
Team Sp...
Kate Boudreau
Junior, Biomedical
Computation
boudreau.kate@gmail.com
Background:
Bioinformatic
research
Expertise:
Biocomp...
Increasing # of satellites
Space debris threatens
critical infrastructure
(GPS, communications, etc)
The Challenge
Increas...
Interviewed over 100 stakeholders
Mapped the status quo
Built simple prototypes to test our ideas
Lean methodology
First industry process map
Focused on data flow in the
collision avoidance system
The Path to Collisions
Tracking Modeling Warnings Response
“This will be an eye-opener to many
people!”
- Amber, State Dep...
Original Hypotheses - Tracking
1) Collision warnings based
on estimates only
GPS
position
Observed
position
We can improve...
We tested many ideas
Worldwide Operator
phone book
GPS data-sharing
Define debris size/shape
(helps prediction accuracy)
S...
Answer #1:
This is a small part of the problem
Answer #2:
Satellite operator decision matrix
Warning?
Maneuver?
< 1% chanceY
N
N Y
< .01% chance < .01% chance
< 1% chanc...
Data sharing isn’t the problem - technical uncertainty
makes the whole process unreliable
The underlying problem?
Collisio...
“This insight will frame our approach to this
problem and has given us a new way forward
with the international community”...
The Path to Collisions
Tracking Modeling Warnings Response
Mission
Planning
Too much decentralized, limited
accountability decision-making
Space as a Tragedy of the Commons
Cost/schedule limitations...
Fix the Commons Problem
Make choices and
consequences transparent and
accountable
Debris Responsibility Score
Final MVP: Debris Responsibility Score
Time in Space Size of Object Congestion of Orbit
Risk of On-Orbit BreakupPlanned Mi...
“If you can show me it
works, I would use it.”
-U.S. Government
Regulator
“This needs to be
presented at the next
satellit...
Iteration/
peer review
Best
Practice
Community
Standard
Deployment: Iteration & Acceptance
Deployment: Expected Use Cases
NGO monitors tradable
credits
international
policy
Summary
Instead of avoiding as many debris items as
operators choose to put in space...
...Our rating will work to prevent...
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agile, mission model, corporate innovation, customer development, h4d, h4dip, hacking for diplomacy, lean, lean launchpad, lean startup, stanford, steve blank, state department

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Space Evaders Lessons Learned H4Dip Stanford 2016

  1. Project “Steer Clear” 102 Total Interviews Challenge: How can we stop space collisions from making space unusable? Team Space Evaders Our plan: New method to evaluate debris creation. Sponsor: Amber Charlesworth, Office of Space and Advanced Technology
  2. Kate Boudreau Junior, Biomedical Computation boudreau.kate@gmail.com Background: Bioinformatic research Expertise: Biocomputation Tyler Dammann Junior, Computer Science tylerdammann@gmail.com Background: Software, computer science Expertise: Technology, data Dave Gabler Masters, Business/ Public Policy davesgabler@gmail.com Background: Air Force, business Expertise: Strategy, aerospace, management Matthew Kaseman Freshman, Aerospace Engineering kaseman.matt@gmail.com Background: Army, gov’t contracting Expertise: Engineering implementation Team Space Evaders
  3. Increasing # of satellites Space debris threatens critical infrastructure (GPS, communications, etc) The Challenge Increasing collisions More debris
  4. Interviewed over 100 stakeholders Mapped the status quo Built simple prototypes to test our ideas Lean methodology
  5. First industry process map Focused on data flow in the collision avoidance system
  6. The Path to Collisions Tracking Modeling Warnings Response “This will be an eye-opener to many people!” - Amber, State Department
  7. Original Hypotheses - Tracking 1) Collision warnings based on estimates only GPS position Observed position We can improve avoidance capability through: - Communication - Data Sharing 2) Satellites know precisely where they are Solution!
  8. We tested many ideas Worldwide Operator phone book GPS data-sharing Define debris size/shape (helps prediction accuracy) Small satellite ID hardware
  9. Answer #1: This is a small part of the problem
  10. Answer #2: Satellite operator decision matrix Warning? Maneuver? < 1% chanceY N N Y < .01% chance < .01% chance < 1% chance but now YOU caused it < 1% chance “My chances are no better if I move, so why would I assume the responsibility?” - Commercial Satellite operator
  11. Data sharing isn’t the problem - technical uncertainty makes the whole process unreliable The underlying problem? Collision warnings are only “in the ballpark” Operators need MUCH more detail
  12. “This insight will frame our approach to this problem and has given us a new way forward with the international community” - Deputy Assistant Secretary
  13. The Path to Collisions Tracking Modeling Warnings Response Mission Planning
  14. Too much decentralized, limited accountability decision-making Space as a Tragedy of the Commons Cost/schedule limitations can prevent debris mitigation efforts Vague debris mitigation standards = significant design leeway
  15. Fix the Commons Problem Make choices and consequences transparent and accountable Debris Responsibility Score
  16. Final MVP: Debris Responsibility Score Time in Space Size of Object Congestion of Orbit Risk of On-Orbit BreakupPlanned Mission Debris
  17. “If you can show me it works, I would use it.” -U.S. Government Regulator “This needs to be presented at the next satellite operators conference” -International satellite operator “I’ve wanted to do this myself for years!” -Leading industry expert/journalist
  18. Iteration/ peer review Best Practice Community Standard Deployment: Iteration & Acceptance
  19. Deployment: Expected Use Cases NGO monitors tradable credits international policy
  20. Summary Instead of avoiding as many debris items as operators choose to put in space... ...Our rating will work to prevent new debris from getting there at all

agile, mission model, corporate innovation, customer development, h4d, h4dip, hacking for diplomacy, lean, lean launchpad, lean startup, stanford, steve blank, state department

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