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IoT + Energy Management
1
Zillow for Solar
Pivoted :Energy Storage
Service
TOTAL INTERVIEWS: 102
Shayaun Nejad
Business Dev
Sundar Subramanian
Energy
Abhishek Mishra
Consulting
Andre Askarinam
Energy & EECS
Billy Jan
Industrial Eng.
Scott Raskin
Mentor
BoltWatch
2
Zillow for solar (Wk 1-3 & 30 Interviews)
EXISTING FREE COMPETITION.
“Landowners generally do not care about leasing land
unless 5x ROI.”
Sandipan Bhanot
Project Developer, Staten Solar
• Value Proposition: Platform
connecting landowners to
developers
• Cust Segments: Solar Project
Developers and Land Owners
(Farmers)
3
Business Model Canvas – Zillow for Solar
No Product Market Fit saving 10 months
Landowners: do not care for developer and broker
mediation unless this service is for free.
Project Developers will not pay
4
Energy Storage (Wk 4-6 & 26 Interviews)
“Grid scale energy storage is not viable.”
Matt Baker, Energy Trading, PG&E
“it’s too early due to storage system
costs.”
Jeff Eyet, Business Development,
GreenCharge
• Team expertise in Energy
• Store energy at low grid cost and supply at high
• Cust Segments: Commercial and Industrial facilities with high peak charges
• Value Proposition: Shave and shift Peak demand to reduce electricity costs
5
Businss Model Canvas – Energy Storage
Economics does not work
Expensive Battery
High upfront cost for our startup
Storage capacity not sufficient for industrial
6
BoltWatch
Ronan Bose
Consultant, Silver Spring
“It is difficult to manage electricity in large
facilities, and there are no dominant players.”
Jonathan
Farmer / Owner, Almond Processing Plant
“The farm is run by family and uses
$600,000/year in energy. We did not have energy
management department. In fact, we never
thought of energy management.”
• Address “Peak Charges” via Data Analytics + Monitoring
• Cust Segments: Commercial and Industrial Facilities with high peak
charges (15-25%)
• Value Proposition: Reduce peak electricity costs by (20-30%) + Energy
Management and Analytics
Week 7
Business Model Canvas
7
Energy
Storage
“New buildings and facilities integrate building management
software as part of design.”
Focus on SMB that do not have dedicated teams and those
that operate in inconsistent energy profile industries.
8
9
Customer Archetype
“Mom & Pop” Facilities
+ ~ 10,000 sqft facility
+ Fewer than 100 employees
+ Inconsistent demand (eg., batch process plants)
+ No dedicated energy management team
+ Expensive electricity markets
+ Large energy bills in excess of $50,000 / month
+ No tangible strategy to reduce their electricity
cost
Week 9
Gateway
Device
Smart
Sensors
MVP: Hardware Week 10
10
MVP: Analytics
Software:
▫ Smartly analyze and report energy usage of appliances
▫ Can regulate appliance energy use without intrusion into machine operations.
▫ Find optimum set-points
Week 10
11
Appliance
MVP: Example Manufacturer Layout Week 10
12
Appliance
Monitor
Router
MVP: Example Manufacturer Configuration Week 10
13
Payment Flow & Revenue Model
BoltWatch
Finance/Accounts
$250 - $500/month
$500 one time
Send bills
Hardware installation
Small Industrials
▫ Performance based payment
▪ Sliding scale range from $250
- $500 per month
▪ Features and insights are
valuable
▫ Asset Sale
▪ $500 per hardware installed
▪ Low initial cost to increase
adoption
Per Customer LTV is $20,000 for asset +
Subscription for 60 month period
Revenue ModelPayment Flow
Week 11
14
Cost Flow
Software Development
4G Smart Plug $ 50 / cust. ($ 30 / unit, 50 units)
Router (4G LTE Router Industrial) $ 77 / cust. ($ 230 / unit, 10 units)
PaaS (AWS IOT) $ 5 / cust. ($ 5 / million msg.)
Cloud Computing (Amazon EC2 r4) $130 / cust. ($ 1569 / year)
Components
People (per project)
Marketing ($10K budget)
Direct
Sales
Estimate cost of one 10,000-sqft facility with 30-month amortization on components & software
(Assume acquire 20 customers in 30 months)
ios / Android Smartphone & Desktop $3,000
Online marketing $ 500
Salary $ 6,000
Travel + Award
$ 3,000
Total Cost $ 17,740 for 30 months
Cost per month= $ 591
Cost Acq Cost = $ 650
Week 11
Expand quickly to lower acquisition costs and Focus on Partnerships
“Napa wineries network still don’t get the product.” – Partner with Energy Consultants
“you must guarantee that product actually saves energy.
We will recommend your product but not directly sell it.”- Partner with Utilities
15
Final Business Model Canvas (46 Interviews) Week 12
16
17
Week
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
We are team
3.4 Energy Partners!
Connect Farmer with Developer –
Zillow for Solar
Developer will not pay
Pivot 1
Battery Storage Management
Pivot 2
BoltWatch
Discover SMB
Customer segment
Focus on Mom-and Pop
Facility
Introduce plug-and-play,
non-intrusive hardware
MVP demo
Next step:
Build pilot project
Our 12-week journeyMorale
Low
High
18
Our interests are different but for Anyone Going for It….
BoltWatch
http://www.boltwatch.us/
Good to know ….
Penetrate via Partnerships (Consulting & Utilities)
Competition from Low Energy storage costs (battery tech)
Market size appropriate for expanding existing business unit
Market Size
Annual Subscription Fee ( $ / year) $4,250.00
World # of manufacturing facilities 6,000,000
US # of manufacturing facilities 300,000
Small to Medium Size Facilities
(10 - 100 workers)
110,000
Potential Revenue Target $475M
19
Week 10
Appendix
20
Value Proposition Canvas
Gain Creators
Products &
Services
Pain Relievers
Gains
Pains
Customer
Jobs
● Peak demand management
● Saving $$ on electricity bills
● Dashboards for monitoring
● Inability to understand data
● Too much data
● Excel is cumbersome and low
tech
● Financial Targets
● Pay bills
● Energy use tracking
● Customized analytics
● Historical reporting
● Mobile /Cloud integration
● 24/7 Monitoring
Segment: SMB and factory
settings less than 10k sq ft and
100 employees
Value Proposition: Energy
Management through IoT
and Analytics
● Real time analytics
● Auto update local energy rates
● Recommendations via text, email,
phone
● Override thresholds
● Integrated metering - all meters
reported in one platform
Week 9
21
• Last fund round $5M for expanding
Internationally and AI enhancement
• Reach $5M total revenue EOY
• Have AI tool fully up and running
Jan 2020
• Finalize partner supply agreements and
MFG IP partnerships ($250K)
• Funding round #2 $1M for operations
• Partnership with utilities finalized for
subsidies
Jan 2019
• Analytics and AI algorithm development
$100K
• Hardware dev and test $30K
• Test all needed for pilot
implementation
Jan 2018
• Expand into other USA markets
• Industry roadshows and tradeshows
with case study whitepaper
• Develop licensing technology to sell for
royalties to BM sofwtare
June 2019
June 2018
June 2017
• Pilot project implemented and running
• Funding round #1 for $1M
• Generate more leads and customers
and add consultant partners
• Website and ad word campaign for
leads $5K to develop pilot
• Technical requirements and supplier
identified
• Finalized BOM and system design
3 Year Timeline
22
Interview Insights (Canvas Right Side)
23
Ravy Nalluri
Genetech
Everyone has a vastly different electricity situation (existing EMS, installed panels,
hardwired appliances, can’t turn off appliances, value different VP...) but all of
them want to save power - need a product to cater to all. Regulation of power is
not as important as monitoring.
SMB
Manufacturing
Facilities
4 people Agreed to send data from company (picture of panels and energy data) and
want to keep in touch regarding project
Tradeshow seems like a good way for customer orgination.
Glen Otinger
Thermofusion
Inc.
Focus on SMB that do not have dedicated teams and those that operate
in inconsistent energy profile industries.
“New buildings and facilities design pretty much integrates all these energy saving
automation and features as part of design.”
“Dibalog was the company that Thermofusion uses for last several years and they just
installed hardware and monitoring is for free. Tradeshow was where we found them”
Week 7-8
24
Upfront Cost
Application Development
- ios / Android Smart Phone & Desktop $ 60,000 ($3000 per customer assuming 20 tot)
Estimate BOM of 10,000 sq-feet facility running 1 month ($262)
Fixed Cost (30 months amortization)
Hardware
- Smart Plug $ 50 ($ 30 / unit, estimate 50 units)
- Router (4G LTE Router Industrial) $ 77 ($ 230 / unit, estimate 10 units)
Variable Cost
Infrastructure
- PaaS (AWS IOT) $ 5 ($ 5 / million message for 650K messages)
- Cloud Computing (Amazon EC2 r4) $130 ($ 1569 / year)
Cost Flow
24
Interview Insights (Canvas Left Side)
25
Gopal Shanker
Consultant
Recolte Energy
Ramzi Brown
Engineer
Hawaii Energy
Energy consultants are a must-have partner
“We spoke to Verdegris two years ago but the product was just a theory, and the Napa
wineries network still don’t get the product.”
“Regarding partnerships with utilities and Hawaii Energy, you must guarantee that
product actually saves energy using case studies in order for public organizations to
recommend your product. We will recommend our product but not directly sell it. Plus,
relying on utilities for sales will give traction for your product.”
Working with public organizations to sell our product provides limited space
for growth and traction and is hard to convince them to do.
Week 11
Channel Diagram
Direct
Sales
Energy
Consultant
COGS
30%
Profit
30%
COGS
30%
EC’s Cut
15%
R&D
30%
R&D
30%
Disc
10%
Disc
10%
Profit
15%
Week 10
26
Activities
Generate leads through
value based selling
Develop cost competitive and
sophisticated hardware platform
Allow our platform to perform the
needed analytics and reporting
Become visible and improve
click through success
Resources
Customer Origination
Hardware Manufacture
Cloud Hosting
Marketing & Branding
Partners
Utilities, Energy
Consultants
Suppliers from China
source
Amazon Web Services
Costco for Business,
Industry tradeshows
Partnership Activities Week 11
27
Customer Relationship
Get:
1. Direct Pitch
2. Online Advertising
3. Tradeshow
Keep:
1. Provide Customer Analytics
2. Provide Hardware (Can’t
easily transition away)
Grow:
1. Predict energy usage
and pitch new energy
assets / services
(customer success)
28
Income Statement
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Units sold 50 110 180
Sales [hardware] $25,000 $55,000 $90,000
Sales [analytics] $0 $138,600 $138,600 30.00% [conversion rate from last year]
COGS $10,000 $22,000 $36,000 40.00% [percent of sales]
Gross Margin $15,000 $171,600 $192,600
R&D $5,000 $38,720 $45,720 20.00% [percent of sales]
SG&A $2,500 $5,500 $9,000 10.00% [percent of sales]
EBITDA $7,500 $127,380 $137,880
Tax $2,250 $38,214 $41,364 30.00% Tax rate
Net Income $5,250 $89,166 $96,516
Selling Price
Hardware $500 [one time]
Performance $350 [per month]
29
Business Model Canvas Progression
44
Roadmap
Generate Leads through website/ ad words
To develop requirements
Seed Money
To develop analytics
algorithm
Partnerships
For promotion, analytics, and hardware
Pilot Implementation
From customer leads
Get more funds and revenue
To ensure continual growth and development

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BoltWatch 2017

  • 1. IoT + Energy Management 1 Zillow for Solar Pivoted :Energy Storage Service TOTAL INTERVIEWS: 102 Shayaun Nejad Business Dev Sundar Subramanian Energy Abhishek Mishra Consulting Andre Askarinam Energy & EECS Billy Jan Industrial Eng. Scott Raskin Mentor BoltWatch
  • 2. 2 Zillow for solar (Wk 1-3 & 30 Interviews) EXISTING FREE COMPETITION. “Landowners generally do not care about leasing land unless 5x ROI.” Sandipan Bhanot Project Developer, Staten Solar • Value Proposition: Platform connecting landowners to developers • Cust Segments: Solar Project Developers and Land Owners (Farmers)
  • 3. 3 Business Model Canvas – Zillow for Solar No Product Market Fit saving 10 months Landowners: do not care for developer and broker mediation unless this service is for free. Project Developers will not pay
  • 4. 4 Energy Storage (Wk 4-6 & 26 Interviews) “Grid scale energy storage is not viable.” Matt Baker, Energy Trading, PG&E “it’s too early due to storage system costs.” Jeff Eyet, Business Development, GreenCharge • Team expertise in Energy • Store energy at low grid cost and supply at high • Cust Segments: Commercial and Industrial facilities with high peak charges • Value Proposition: Shave and shift Peak demand to reduce electricity costs
  • 5. 5 Businss Model Canvas – Energy Storage Economics does not work Expensive Battery High upfront cost for our startup Storage capacity not sufficient for industrial
  • 6. 6 BoltWatch Ronan Bose Consultant, Silver Spring “It is difficult to manage electricity in large facilities, and there are no dominant players.” Jonathan Farmer / Owner, Almond Processing Plant “The farm is run by family and uses $600,000/year in energy. We did not have energy management department. In fact, we never thought of energy management.” • Address “Peak Charges” via Data Analytics + Monitoring • Cust Segments: Commercial and Industrial Facilities with high peak charges (15-25%) • Value Proposition: Reduce peak electricity costs by (20-30%) + Energy Management and Analytics Week 7
  • 8. Energy Storage “New buildings and facilities integrate building management software as part of design.” Focus on SMB that do not have dedicated teams and those that operate in inconsistent energy profile industries. 8
  • 9. 9 Customer Archetype “Mom & Pop” Facilities + ~ 10,000 sqft facility + Fewer than 100 employees + Inconsistent demand (eg., batch process plants) + No dedicated energy management team + Expensive electricity markets + Large energy bills in excess of $50,000 / month + No tangible strategy to reduce their electricity cost Week 9
  • 11. MVP: Analytics Software: ▫ Smartly analyze and report energy usage of appliances ▫ Can regulate appliance energy use without intrusion into machine operations. ▫ Find optimum set-points Week 10 11
  • 14. Payment Flow & Revenue Model BoltWatch Finance/Accounts $250 - $500/month $500 one time Send bills Hardware installation Small Industrials ▫ Performance based payment ▪ Sliding scale range from $250 - $500 per month ▪ Features and insights are valuable ▫ Asset Sale ▪ $500 per hardware installed ▪ Low initial cost to increase adoption Per Customer LTV is $20,000 for asset + Subscription for 60 month period Revenue ModelPayment Flow Week 11 14
  • 15. Cost Flow Software Development 4G Smart Plug $ 50 / cust. ($ 30 / unit, 50 units) Router (4G LTE Router Industrial) $ 77 / cust. ($ 230 / unit, 10 units) PaaS (AWS IOT) $ 5 / cust. ($ 5 / million msg.) Cloud Computing (Amazon EC2 r4) $130 / cust. ($ 1569 / year) Components People (per project) Marketing ($10K budget) Direct Sales Estimate cost of one 10,000-sqft facility with 30-month amortization on components & software (Assume acquire 20 customers in 30 months) ios / Android Smartphone & Desktop $3,000 Online marketing $ 500 Salary $ 6,000 Travel + Award $ 3,000 Total Cost $ 17,740 for 30 months Cost per month= $ 591 Cost Acq Cost = $ 650 Week 11 Expand quickly to lower acquisition costs and Focus on Partnerships “Napa wineries network still don’t get the product.” – Partner with Energy Consultants “you must guarantee that product actually saves energy. We will recommend your product but not directly sell it.”- Partner with Utilities 15
  • 16. Final Business Model Canvas (46 Interviews) Week 12 16
  • 17. 17 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 We are team 3.4 Energy Partners! Connect Farmer with Developer – Zillow for Solar Developer will not pay Pivot 1 Battery Storage Management Pivot 2 BoltWatch Discover SMB Customer segment Focus on Mom-and Pop Facility Introduce plug-and-play, non-intrusive hardware MVP demo Next step: Build pilot project Our 12-week journeyMorale Low High
  • 18. 18 Our interests are different but for Anyone Going for It…. BoltWatch http://www.boltwatch.us/ Good to know …. Penetrate via Partnerships (Consulting & Utilities) Competition from Low Energy storage costs (battery tech) Market size appropriate for expanding existing business unit
  • 19. Market Size Annual Subscription Fee ( $ / year) $4,250.00 World # of manufacturing facilities 6,000,000 US # of manufacturing facilities 300,000 Small to Medium Size Facilities (10 - 100 workers) 110,000 Potential Revenue Target $475M 19 Week 10
  • 21. Value Proposition Canvas Gain Creators Products & Services Pain Relievers Gains Pains Customer Jobs ● Peak demand management ● Saving $$ on electricity bills ● Dashboards for monitoring ● Inability to understand data ● Too much data ● Excel is cumbersome and low tech ● Financial Targets ● Pay bills ● Energy use tracking ● Customized analytics ● Historical reporting ● Mobile /Cloud integration ● 24/7 Monitoring Segment: SMB and factory settings less than 10k sq ft and 100 employees Value Proposition: Energy Management through IoT and Analytics ● Real time analytics ● Auto update local energy rates ● Recommendations via text, email, phone ● Override thresholds ● Integrated metering - all meters reported in one platform Week 9 21
  • 22. • Last fund round $5M for expanding Internationally and AI enhancement • Reach $5M total revenue EOY • Have AI tool fully up and running Jan 2020 • Finalize partner supply agreements and MFG IP partnerships ($250K) • Funding round #2 $1M for operations • Partnership with utilities finalized for subsidies Jan 2019 • Analytics and AI algorithm development $100K • Hardware dev and test $30K • Test all needed for pilot implementation Jan 2018 • Expand into other USA markets • Industry roadshows and tradeshows with case study whitepaper • Develop licensing technology to sell for royalties to BM sofwtare June 2019 June 2018 June 2017 • Pilot project implemented and running • Funding round #1 for $1M • Generate more leads and customers and add consultant partners • Website and ad word campaign for leads $5K to develop pilot • Technical requirements and supplier identified • Finalized BOM and system design 3 Year Timeline 22
  • 23. Interview Insights (Canvas Right Side) 23 Ravy Nalluri Genetech Everyone has a vastly different electricity situation (existing EMS, installed panels, hardwired appliances, can’t turn off appliances, value different VP...) but all of them want to save power - need a product to cater to all. Regulation of power is not as important as monitoring. SMB Manufacturing Facilities 4 people Agreed to send data from company (picture of panels and energy data) and want to keep in touch regarding project Tradeshow seems like a good way for customer orgination. Glen Otinger Thermofusion Inc. Focus on SMB that do not have dedicated teams and those that operate in inconsistent energy profile industries. “New buildings and facilities design pretty much integrates all these energy saving automation and features as part of design.” “Dibalog was the company that Thermofusion uses for last several years and they just installed hardware and monitoring is for free. Tradeshow was where we found them” Week 7-8
  • 24. 24 Upfront Cost Application Development - ios / Android Smart Phone & Desktop $ 60,000 ($3000 per customer assuming 20 tot) Estimate BOM of 10,000 sq-feet facility running 1 month ($262) Fixed Cost (30 months amortization) Hardware - Smart Plug $ 50 ($ 30 / unit, estimate 50 units) - Router (4G LTE Router Industrial) $ 77 ($ 230 / unit, estimate 10 units) Variable Cost Infrastructure - PaaS (AWS IOT) $ 5 ($ 5 / million message for 650K messages) - Cloud Computing (Amazon EC2 r4) $130 ($ 1569 / year) Cost Flow 24
  • 25. Interview Insights (Canvas Left Side) 25 Gopal Shanker Consultant Recolte Energy Ramzi Brown Engineer Hawaii Energy Energy consultants are a must-have partner “We spoke to Verdegris two years ago but the product was just a theory, and the Napa wineries network still don’t get the product.” “Regarding partnerships with utilities and Hawaii Energy, you must guarantee that product actually saves energy using case studies in order for public organizations to recommend your product. We will recommend our product but not directly sell it. Plus, relying on utilities for sales will give traction for your product.” Working with public organizations to sell our product provides limited space for growth and traction and is hard to convince them to do. Week 11
  • 27. Activities Generate leads through value based selling Develop cost competitive and sophisticated hardware platform Allow our platform to perform the needed analytics and reporting Become visible and improve click through success Resources Customer Origination Hardware Manufacture Cloud Hosting Marketing & Branding Partners Utilities, Energy Consultants Suppliers from China source Amazon Web Services Costco for Business, Industry tradeshows Partnership Activities Week 11 27
  • 28. Customer Relationship Get: 1. Direct Pitch 2. Online Advertising 3. Tradeshow Keep: 1. Provide Customer Analytics 2. Provide Hardware (Can’t easily transition away) Grow: 1. Predict energy usage and pitch new energy assets / services (customer success) 28
  • 29. Income Statement Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Units sold 50 110 180 Sales [hardware] $25,000 $55,000 $90,000 Sales [analytics] $0 $138,600 $138,600 30.00% [conversion rate from last year] COGS $10,000 $22,000 $36,000 40.00% [percent of sales] Gross Margin $15,000 $171,600 $192,600 R&D $5,000 $38,720 $45,720 20.00% [percent of sales] SG&A $2,500 $5,500 $9,000 10.00% [percent of sales] EBITDA $7,500 $127,380 $137,880 Tax $2,250 $38,214 $41,364 30.00% Tax rate Net Income $5,250 $89,166 $96,516 Selling Price Hardware $500 [one time] Performance $350 [per month] 29
  • 30. Business Model Canvas Progression
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44. 44 Roadmap Generate Leads through website/ ad words To develop requirements Seed Money To develop analytics algorithm Partnerships For promotion, analytics, and hardware Pilot Implementation From customer leads Get more funds and revenue To ensure continual growth and development

Notas del editor

  1. Sundar: Hi everyone we are team 3.4 Energy. We are a bunch of energy enthusiasts that came together in October of 2016 to develop and idea within solar project development space. We started with a product one would call Zillow for solar and then pivoted to Energy storage as service and finally ended up as an Energy Management platform. We performed 102 interviews and two pivots within 12 weeks.
  2. Sundar: We started with the idea that we could develop a scouting & transaction platform for solar project developers and landowners We did 30 interviews in first 3 weeks We found that there was a similar site that could easily add this as feature
  3. Sundar: We started with a beautiful canvas and ended up with a bloody one (negated all our hypothesis) There was no product market fit and save precious time of our careers Landowners did not care for this and broker network was very tight Project developers had in house tools and will not pay
  4. Sundar: We wanted stay in Energy and were enthralled by the energy storage space We wanted to develop a energy storage service with AI for C&I customers After 3 weeks worth 26 interviews we found this was very expensive and early
  5. Sundar: While the customer segments are still valid along with value propositions, this was just too expensive and very capital intensive start up space. Energy storage space for large facilities is very difficult due to current technology effeciencies.
  6. Shayun
  7. Shayun Customer segments Started with multiple Ruled out casinos and resorts – have dedicated energy management system Warehouse don’t need it Value proposition Changed the value prop to Regulating and monitoring energy Revenue Stream Still have hardware but not as dedicated revenue stream Key partners Utilities as provider of subsidies.
  8. Shayun Our sweet spot is on providing a service to SMB that do not have all similarities to customers that are served mainly on this. - We feel our Major competition is Residential and Building Energy Management Commercial Energy Management
  9. Shayun - Introduce customer archetype
  10. Andre
  11. Andre
  12. Andre
  13. Andre
  14. Billy
  15. Billy
  16. Abhishek This is our Final Business Model Canvas Its clean Defined Customer Segment and Value Prop for that segment How we build relationship and using which channel Finally what resources will we need to succeed We are quite proud of it ! Actually
  17. Abhishek This is our journey Lots of ups and downs ! We stuck as a team Went back to the CANVAS, SAT DOWN, to find NEW ways to ask the right questions
  18. Abhishek However, we are not GOING FOR IT ! Just because our interests are different at this point ! BUT ANYONE ELSE …. Suitable for large organization with expanding business units Partnerships are key Competition from low energy storage such as BATTERIES will be a HUGE factor
  19. Abhishek The market size is
  20. Whether a Macadamia nut farm run by a family in Hawaii or a Molding Factory run by a single lady in Southern California, all our customers complained of high electricity costs that they don’t have time or know how to reduce.
  21. Whether a Macadamia nut farm run by a family in Hawaii or a Molding Factory run by a single lady in Southern California, all our customers complained of high electricity costs that they don’t have time or know how to reduce.
  22. Slide 5: Rough three-year income statement to show you have a real business with your revenue model, channel, acquisition costs, etc.