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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. September 2020.

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Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.

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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. September 2020.

  1. 1. LATIN AMERICA UPDATE September 2020 www.nuricumbo.com
  2. 2. Uncertainty in Latam is becoming the new normal
  3. 3. Inflation continues to be under control
  4. 4. Fiscal systems continue to be weak…
  5. 5. And tax efficiency is very different from country to country
  6. 6. Since 2010 GDP per capita has been declining
  7. 7. However, technology use continues to grow
  8. 8. Venture capital ecosystem continues to grow
  9. 9. Innovation always requires time
  10. 10. WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  11. 11. OUR VALUE PROPOSITION: ü Highly experienced consultants. ü High degree of flexibility. ü Ideal to tackle those important but not urgent tasks that otherwise never get done. ü Able to support in the resolution of special or confidential projects. ü Important specialization in Finance and Accounting projects. ü More than 50 multidisciplinary consultants. Average of 15 to 20 years of professional experience. We are Nuricumbo + Partners
  12. 12. SOME EXAMPLES: ü Interim C-Level Executives. ü Financial Due Diligence for M&A. ü Part-Time CFOs. ü Comisarios / Consejeros. ü Interim Project Teams. ü Specialized Training Programs. ü Debt/Equity Solutions. ü Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos) ü Process Improvement ü Special Audits (Forensic, Compliance, etc.) How do we help some of our clients
  13. 13. Internal Audit Support 1 3 We can enhance your audit projects in Mexico, Latin America, or anywhere else. Talent Mobility Flexibility Capabilities Our consultants can travel in Mexico, in Latin America, or basically anywhere you need them. We have successfully delivered audit projects in many countries. We are particularly effective where English, Spanish or Portuguese is spoken. Worldwide Mobility We have a multidisciplinary approach, combining specialists in internal controls, forensics, IT, business intelligence, process automation and compliance. We have an internal quality function to ensure objectives are always met. The result is a powerful combination of skills that allows us to deliver extra value in each engagement. Special Audit Capabilities Talented Senior Consultants Maximum Flexibility Our talent is available under a very flexible model. We have delivered projects that have taken 1 day, 1 month or 1 year to complete. Our rates are the best in the market. We can manage co- sourcing or out-sourcing audit initiatives. And in Latin America, we have the local knowledge and insight. We have a solid base of senior audit consultants, all of them highly trained and with rich experience in multinational environments, ready to support your audit projects. Our objective: To work with the best internal audit departments around the world, to help their organizations to manage better the risks and opportunities of their global operations.
  14. 14. ANTI-CORRUPTION PROGRAM Tha best return on investment comes from prevention Despite the fact that a large number of companies suffer fraud every year Only a few organizations invest in preparing themselves against fraud and corruption. YOUR COMPANY MUST BE PART OF THAT RESPONSIBLE MINORITY. Today, more than ever, risks are increasingly complex and difficult to mitigate. 85% Mexican companies that have suffered some type of fraud PROACTIVE DIAGNOSIS ADOPTION OF BEST PRACTICES STRATEGIC AND CONTINUOUS TESTING Source: Reporte Global de Fraude y Riesgo 2018 (Kroll) Our methodology is easy to implement, adapts to the specific needs of your company, and is supported by some of the best fraud prevention and detection professionals.
  15. 15. Complete Profiles Armando NuricumboRodrigo Llanos Miguel Amador Guillermo Lagos Former CFOFormer Investment Banking Former Controller / Auditor Former CEO Jesus Bush PWC. IPG. Bombardier. RGP. 25 years of experience. Valmex. Inverlat. Arka. 35 years of experience. Whirlpool. Banco Azteca. 35 years of experience. EY. Smurfit. Maxcom. Devlyn. 30 years of experience. 3M. Imperial Chemical. IMEF 30 years of experience. Some of our talented consultants Alejandro Rico Tax Partner KPMG. Confies. 25 years of experience. Jose Trevino Former NAFTA Negotiator Colmex. Comce. Cancham. 35 years of experience. Angel Hernandez Former CFO Ingram. Dresser. TRW. 35 years of experience. Roberto Fernandez Former CIO AT&T Capital. CIT. Alta. 30 years of experience. Enrique Ugarte Former VP ProMexico. CCE. Edomex. 35 years of experience. Former CIO Marisol Baca Former VP Administration CFE. BID. Real Financiera. 25 years of experience. José A. Ventura Former CFO PWC. Truper. BristolMyers. 30 years of experience.
  16. 16. LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW
  17. 17. $5.47 $5.22 $5.49 $0.00 $1.50 $3.00 $4.50 $6.00 June July August Brazil Exchange Rates $3,758.06 $3,732.71 $3,741.04 $0.00 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 $4,500.00 June July August Colombia $22.99 $22.28 $21.89 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 June July August Mexico $3.54 $3.53 $3.54 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 June July August Peru Source: Bloomberg, 2020. *USD / PEN *USD / MXN *USD / CLP *USD / BRL *USD / COP $821.24 $757.73 $776.66 $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 June July August Chile *USD / CLP $70.46 $72.32 $74.18 $0.00 $25.00 $50.00 $75.00 $100.00 June July August Argentina *USD / ARS
  18. 18. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2020. 43.40% 42.80% 42.40% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% May June July Argentina Inflation Rate 2.31% 2.44% 2.67% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% June July August Brazil 2.19% 1.97% 1.88% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% June July August Colombia 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% June July August Chile 3.30% 3.62% 4.05% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% June July August Mexico 1.60% 1.86% 1.69% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% June July August Peru
  19. 19. $43,219 $43,374 $42,842 $0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 June July August Argentina International Reserves $339,317 $345,706 $348,781 $0 $120,000 $240,000 $360,000 $480,000 May June July Brazil $56,624 $56,972 $57,185 $0 $18,000 $36,000 $54,000 $72,000 June July August Colombia $36,390 $36,851 $37,714 $0 $13,000 $26,000 $39,000 $52,000 June July August Chile $188,942 $197,891 $193,267 $0 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $240,000 June July August Mexico $71,450 $74,336 $74,668 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 June July August Peru *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2020.
  20. 20. 38,686.69 49,253.62 46,835.42 0 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 June July August Argentina Capital Markets 95,055.80 102,912.20 99,369.20 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 June July August Brazil 1,111.80 1,134.34 1,216.03 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 June July August Colombia 16,878.00 17,512.53 18,576.89 0 7,000 14,000 21,000 June July August Peru 37,716.43 37,019.68 36,840.73 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 June July August Mexico 3,959.02 4,017.08 3,767.15 0 1,200 2,400 3,600 4,800 June July August Chile *IPSA:IND *MEXBOL:IND *SPBLPGPT:IND *MERVAL:IND *IBOV:IND *COLCAP:IND Source: Bloomberg, 2020.
  21. 21. Foreign Direct Investmet $11,517 $11,873 $6,244.42 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Argentina $68,885 $78,162 $78,559 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2017 2018 2019 Brazil $13,836 $11,535 $14,493 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 2017 2018 2019 Colombia $12,135 $5,852 $6,082 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2016 2017 2018 Chile $32,977 $38,644 $28,881 $0 $12,000 $24,000 $36,000 $48,000 2017 2018 2019 Mexico $6,739 $6,860 $6,487 $0 $3,000 $6,000 $9,000 2016 2017 2018 Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
  22. 22. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC (10 September 2020) Source: Fitch Ratings, 2020 Brazil BB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (5 May 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (1 April 2020) Chile A- With NEGATIVE Outlook (12 March 2020) Mexico BBB- With STABLE Outlook (15 April 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (3 June 2020)
  23. 23. Credit Ratings Argentina Ca With NEGATIVE Outlook (3 April 2020) Source: Moddy’s Investors Service, 2020. Brazil Ba2 With STABLE Outlook (15 May 2020) Colombia Baa2 With STABLE Outlook (23 May 2019) Chile A1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (25 August 2020) Mexico Baa1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (17 April 2020) Peru A3 With STABLE Outlook (25 Jun 2019)
  24. 24. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC+ With STABLE Outlook (7 September 2020) Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2020. Brazil BB- With STABLE Outlook (6 April 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (26 March 2020) Chile A+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (27 April 2020) Mexico BBB With NEGATIVE Outlook (26 March 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (4 May 2020)
  25. 25. Country Presidents Argentina President: Alberto Fernandez Birth: 2 April 1959 In office since: 10 December 2019 Political Party: Frente de Todos Brazil President: Jair Bolsonaro Birth: 21 March 1955 In office since: 1 January 2019 Political Party: PSL Colombia President: Iván Duque Márquez Birth: 1 Agosto 1976 In office since: 7 Agosto 2018 Political Party: Centro Democrático Chile President: Sebastián Piñera E. Birth: 1 December 1949 In office since: 11 March 2018 Political Party: Independent Mexico President: Andrés Manuel López O. Birth: 13 November 1953 In office since: 1 December 2018 Political Party: Morena Peru President: Martín Vizcarra Birth: 22 Marzo 1963 In office since: 23 March 2018 Political Party: Peruanos por el Kambio
  26. 26. Land Area Source: The World Bank, 2018. 2,736,690 8,358,140 1,109,500 743,532 1,943,950 1,280,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kilometers
  27. 27. Ease of Doing Business Index 126 124 67 59 60 76 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
  28. 28. Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  29. 29. Total Population 44,938.7 211,049.5 50,339.4 18,952.0 127,575.5 32,510.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
  30. 30. Urban Population 92% 87% 81% 88% 80% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Population
  31. 31. Poverty Headcount Ratio 1.0% 4.4% 4.1% 0.3% 1.7% 2.6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018. Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
  32. 32. Exports of Goods and Services 17.3% 14.3% 15.9% 28.2% 39.1% 24.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  33. 33. Foreign Direct Investment - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Argentina BrazilColom bia Chile M exico Peru 6,244 78,559 14,493 6,082 28,881 6,487 Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
  34. 34. Gross Domestic Product $449,663.5 $1,839,758.0 $323,802.8 $282,318.2 $1,258,286.7 $226,848.1 $0 $300,000 $600,000 $900,000 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,100,000 $2,400,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Millions, Current US$
  35. 35. GDP Per Capita $22,947.1 $15,258.9 $15,643.7 $25,155.0 $20,410.7 $13,380.4 $0.0 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 $15,000.0 $20,000.0 $25,000.0 $30,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
  36. 36. GDP Growth -2.2% 1.1% 3.3% 1.1% -0.1% 2.2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  37. 37. Gross Savings 17% 12% 15% 19% 23% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  38. 38. Personal Remittances $0.0 $10,000.0 $20,000.0 $30,000.0 $40,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colom bia Chile M exico Peru $535.2 $3,295.5 $6,769.9 $65.7 $38,628.6 $3,326.0 Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  39. 39. Total Reserves $45,215.6 $356,886.4 $52,652.7 $40,655.5 $183,056.1 $67,711.5 $0.0 $50,000.0 $100,000.0 $150,000.0 $200,000.0 $250,000.0 $300,000.0 $350,000.0 $400,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  40. 40. Revenue 18% 29% 22% 22% 19% 19% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
  41. 41. Government Expenditure on Education 5.5% 6.2% 4.5% 5.4% 4.9% 3.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015 - 2018. Note: Percentage of GDP
  42. 42. Labor Force Source: The World Bank, 2019. 20,772.7 106,500.8 26,787.9 9,557.9 57,142.2 18,864.9 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Thousands
  43. 43. Labor Force (Female) 43.0% 43.6% 42.9% 42.2% 37.8% 45.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
  44. 44. Unemployment 9.8% 12.1% 9.7% 7.1% 3.4% 3.3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
  45. 45. Energy Use Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015. 2,030 1,496 724 2,006 1,537 790 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
  46. 46. Renewable Electricity Output 28.1% 74.0% 68.2% 43.6% 15.4% 52.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015. Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
  47. 47. Population Living in Slums 17% 22% 13% 9% 11% 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2005 - 2014. Note: Percentage of Urban Population
  48. 48. External Debt Stocks 56.1% 30.3% 42.3% 38.0% 31.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of GNI
  49. 49. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio 13.3% 10.2% 17.0% 7.5% 11.0% 12.9% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  50. 50. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans 5.7% 3.1% 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  51. 51. Deposit Interest Rate 47.3% 5.4% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  52. 52. Lending Interest Rate 67.3% 37.5% 11.8% 4.2% 8.5% 17.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  53. 53. Listed Domestic Companies Source: The World Bank, 2019. 91 324 66 203 139 196 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Total
  54. 54. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies $39,393.54 $1,187,361.69 $132,040.28 $203,791.65 $413,618.82 $98,964.96 $0.0 $200,000.0 $400,000.0 $600,000.0 $800,000.0 $1,000,000.0 $1,200,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
  55. 55. Strength of Legal Rights Index Source: The World Bank, 2019. 2 2 11 4 10 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
  56. 56. Military Expenditure 2.1% 3.9% 11.6% 7.4% 2.1% 5.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
  57. 57. WHAT WE THINK Fear and Euphoria The Lebanese Mirror How is a pension system like a dinosaur? Zombieland Welcome USMCA. Now what? The New Battlefield Reinvention Process The Double Valley of Death OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic Willingness to Pay & Value Stick James Francum – Perspective from Germany Juan Carlos García: Perspectivas 2020 Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer Antonio Prida: Mediación Max Zimmermann: Relación con Inversionistas Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19 OTHER Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 ¿Por qué medir la confianza económica? Interview with Ana Maria Salazar (ADN40) Entrevista con el Embajador de España en México Entrevista con Pedro Ferriz de Con – I Entrevista con Pedro Ferriz de Con - II Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  58. 58. We care about your business priorities. Let’s talk! E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309 Skype: nuricua Twitter: @a_nuricumbo Office: Montes Urales 424 Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX Please visit our website

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