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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. November 2020.

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Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.

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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. November 2020.

  1. 1. LATIN AMERICA UPDATE November 2020 www.nuricumbo.com
  2. 2. Biggest global development was the US election
  3. 3. This will also be one of the closest presidential races in history
  4. 4. Early voting was unprecedented
  5. 5. What is the Biden agenda?
  6. 6. Weeks of uncertainty await
  7. 7. Polarization will grow
  8. 8. America, like many other countries, is deeply divided
  9. 9. Mexico is another example of a divided society
  10. 10. Meanhile, LATAM is becoming the region hardest hit by the pandemic
  11. 11. WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  12. 12. OUR VALUE PROPOSITION:  Highly experienced consultants.  High degree of flexibility.  Ideal to tackle those important but not urgent tasks that otherwise never get done.  Able to support in the resolution of special or confidential projects.  Important specialization in Finance and Accounting projects.  More than 50 multidisciplinary consultants. Average of 15 to 20 years of professional experience. We are Nuricumbo + Partners
  13. 13. SOME EXAMPLES:  Interim C-Level Executives.  Financial Due Diligence for M&A.  Part-Time CFOs.  Comisarios / Consejeros.  Interim Project Teams.  Specialized Training Programs.  Debt/Equity Solutions.  Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos)  Process Improvement  Special Audits (Forensic, Compliance, etc.) How do we help some of our clients
  14. 14. COMPANY PROFIT Armando NuricumboRodrigo Llanos Miguel Amador Guillermo Lagos Former CFO / AuditorFormer Investment Banking Former Controller / Auditor Former CEO Jesus Bush PWC. IPG. Bombardier. RGP. 25 years of experience. Valmex. Inverlat. Arka. 30 years of experience. Whirlpool. Banco Azteca. 30 years of experience. EY. Smurfit. Maxcom. Devlyn. 25 years of experience. 3M. Imperial Chemical. IMEF 30 years of experience. Some of our consulting experts Alejandro Rico Tax Advisor / Auditor KPMG. Confies. 25 years of experience. Jose Trevino Former NAFTA Negotiator Colmex. Comce. Cancham. 30 years of experience. Oscar Becerril Former Banker / Credit VP Scotiabank. Citi. Fonatur. 30 years of experience. Roberto Fernandez Former CIO AT&T Capital. CIT. Alta. 30 years of experience. Enrique Ugarte Former CEO ProMexico. CCE. Edomex. 30 years of experience. Marisol Baca Former PMO CFE. BID. Real Financiera. 25 years of experience. José A. Ventura Former CFO / Auditor PWC. Truper. BristolMyers. 30 years of experience. Former CIO
  15. 15. COMPANY PROFIT Trust (Fideicomiso) Management Ideal to manage:  Real Estate Projects  Investment Projects  Public- Private PartnershipS  Credit Guarantees  Estate Planning  Successions, wills and legacies  Asset Protection WE HAVE A PARTNERSHIP WITH THE LARGEST NON-BANK TRUSTEE IN MEXICO (TWO BILLION USD UNDER MANAGEMENT), WHICH ALLOWS TO STRUCTURE, MANAGE AND CONTROL FINANCIAL AND COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS WITH THE TAX AND LEGAL ADVANTAGES OF A TRUST, SUPPORTED BY A WORLD-CLASS TECHNOLOGICAL PLATFORM. 1 5 There are many Trustees, but our partner is the most Fintech in Mexico.  Automatic Collection identification.  Digital control of assets under guarantee.  Authorizations via bank token.  Smart contracts.  Electronic signature.  Interfaces already working with the main banks in the country.  Automated bank reconciliations.  Reports and account statements in real time.  Total control of the incoming and outgoing cash flows. Some other advantages:  Flexibility to build customs solutions.  Robust structure of controls and computer security.  Automation of processes and reports.  More efficiency and faster response times.  Unlike some banks, our partner is a trust specialist, which allows better advice for your project.  IT platform in several languages, ideal for managing international projects.  Connectivity with Apps and Laptops for remote operations management.  And all this at a lower cost than traditional trustees. WE ARE READY TO TALK ABOUTYOUR PROJECT. Grantor Assets Guarantees Beneficiaries Trustee Exclusion of Bankruptcy Trust
  16. 16. COMPANY PROFIT Interim Management in Mexico YOUR TRUSTED BUSINESS ADVISORS What can we bring to the table: - Consultants with more than 20 years of experience. - Fully bilingual. - Expert knowledge of business practices in the country. - Flexible business model. - Honest, independent and reliable. - We have all worked for multinationals operating in Latam. WE CAN PROVIDE EFFECTIVE AND EXPERIENCED INTERIM CONSULTANTS TO TACKLE SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL PROJECTS IN MEXICO. We can take over processes or business units and provide oversight on their performance while a permanent management solution is established. 1 6 We can provide CEO, CFO, CIO, or CHRO type of profiles. After a certain period of time, you can even hire our consultants, which results in a much more certain hiring decision.
  17. 17. LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW
  18. 18. $5.49 $5.50 $5.74 $0.00 $1.50 $3.00 $4.50 $6.00 $7.50 August September October Brazil Exchange Rates $3,741.04 $3,828.40 $3,891.00 $0.00 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 $4,500.00 August September October Colombia $21.89 $22.11 $21.19 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 August September October Mexico $3.54 $3.60 $3.62 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 August September October Peru Source: Bloomberg, 2020. *USD / PEN *USD / MXN *USD / CLP *USD / BRL *USD / COP $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 August September October Chile *USD / CLP $74.18 $76.18 $78.32 $0.00 $25.00 $50.00 $75.00 $100.00 August September October Argentina *USD / ARS
  19. 19. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2020. 42.40% 40.70% 36.60% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% July August September Argentina Inflation Rate 3.14% 3.92% 3.80% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% August September October Brazil 1.88% 1.97% 1.75% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% August September October Colombia 2.40% 3.10% 3.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% August September October Chile 4.05% 4.01% 4.09% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% August September October Mexico 1.69% 1.82% 1.72% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% August September October Peru
  20. 20. $42,842 $41,132 $39,524 $0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 August September October Argentina International Reserves $348,781 $356,606 $354,546 $0 $120,000 $240,000 $360,000 $480,000 July August September Brazil $56,972 $57,185 $56,979 $0 $18,000 $36,000 $54,000 $72,000 July August September Colombia $37,783 $37,821 $38,260 $0 $13,000 $26,000 $39,000 $52,000 August September October Chile $193,267 $193,992 $194,351 $0 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $240,000 August September October Mexico $74,668 $72,354 $72,468 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 August September October Peru *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2020.
  21. 21. 46,835.42 41,260.86 45,225.52 0 16,000 32,000 48,000 64,000 August September October Argentina Capital Markets 99,369.20 94,603.40 93,838.62 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 August September October Brazil 1,216.03 1,171.92 1,136.75 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 August September October Colombia 18,576.89 17,948.78 17,472.20 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 August September October Peru 36,840.73 37,458.69 36,987.86 0 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 August September October Mexico 3,767.15 3,637.30 3,539.92 0 1,200 2,400 3,600 4,800 August September October Chile *IPSA:IND *MEXBOL:IND *SPBLPGPT:IND *MERVAL:IND *IBOV:IND *COLCAP:IND Source: Bloomberg, 2020.
  22. 22. Foreign Direct Investmet $11,517 $11,873 $6,663.00 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Argentina $68,885 $78,162 $73,504 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2017 2018 2019 Brazil $13,836 $11,535 $14,314 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 2017 2018 2019 Colombia $6,128 $7,323 $11,928 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Chile $33,030 $37,682 $29,360 $0 $12,000 $24,000 $36,000 $48,000 2017 2018 2019 Mexico $6,860 $6,488 $8,892 $0 $3,000 $6,000 $9,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
  23. 23. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC (10 September 2020) Source: Fitch Ratings, 2020 Brazil BB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (5 May 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (6 November 2020) Chile A- With STABLE Outlook (15 October 2020) Mexico BBB- With STABLE Outlook (11 November 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (3 June 2020)
  24. 24. Credit Ratings Argentina Ca With STABLE Outlook (28 Sept 2020) Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2020. Brazil Ba2 With STABLE Outlook (15 May 2020) Colombia Baa2 With STABLE Outlook (23 May 2019) Chile A1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (25 August 2020) Mexico Baa1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (17 April 2020) Peru A3 With STABLE Outlook (25 Jun 2019)
  25. 25. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC+ With STABLE Outlook (7 September 2020) Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2020. Brazil BB- With STABLE Outlook (6 April 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (28 October 2020) Chile A+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (27 April 2020) Mexico BBB With NEGATIVE Outlook (26 March 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (4 May 2020)
  26. 26. Country Presidents Argentina President: Alberto Fernandez Birth: 2 April 1959 In office since: 10 December 2019 Political Party: Frente de Todos Brazil President: Jair Bolsonaro Birth: 21 March 1955 In office since: 1 January 2019 Political Party: PSL Colombia President: Iván Duque Márquez Birth: 1 Agosto 1976 In office since: 7 Agosto 2018 Political Party: Centro Democrático Chile President: Sebastián Piñera E. Birth: 1 December 1949 In office since: 11 March 2018 Political Party: Independent Mexico President: Andrés Manuel López O. Birth: 13 November 1953 In office since: 1 December 2018 Political Party: Morena Peru President: Manuel Merino Birth: 20 August 1961 In office since: 10 November 2020 Political Party: Acción Popular
  27. 27. Land Area Source: The World Bank, 2018. 2,736,690 8,358,140 1,109,500 743,532 1,943,950 1,280,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kilometers
  28. 28. Ease of Doing Business Index 126 124 67 59 60 76 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
  29. 29. Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  30. 30. Total Population 44,938.7 211,049.5 50,339.4 18,952.0 127,575.5 32,510.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
  31. 31. Urban Population 92% 87% 81% 88% 80% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Population
  32. 32. Poverty Headcount Ratio 1.3% 4.4% 4.2% 0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018. Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
  33. 33. Exports of Goods and Services 17.3% 14.3% 15.9% 28.2% 39.1% 24.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  34. 34. Foreign Direct Investment - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 6,663 73,503 14,313 11,928 29,360 8,891 Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
  35. 35. Gross Domestic Product $449,663.5 $1,839,758.0 $323,802.8 $282,318.2 $1,258,286.7 $226,848.1 $0 $300,000 $600,000 $900,000 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,100,000 $2,400,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Millions, Current US$
  36. 36. GDP Per Capita $22,947.1 $15,258.9 $15,643.7 $25,155.0 $20,410.7 $13,380.4 $0.0 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 $15,000.0 $20,000.0 $25,000.0 $30,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
  37. 37. GDP Growth -2.2% 1.1% 3.3% 1.1% -0.1% 2.2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  38. 38. Gross Savings 16.7% 12.2% 15.5% 18.9% 22.9% 19.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  39. 39. Personal Remittances $0.0 $10,000.0 $20,000.0 $30,000.0 $40,000.0 $528.3 $3,213.6 $6,769.9 $70.0 $39,021.8 $3,326.0 Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  40. 40. Total Reserves $44,880.6 $356,886.4 $52,652.7 $40,655.5 $183,056.1 $67,711.5 $0.0 $50,000.0 $100,000.0 $150,000.0 $200,000.0 $250,000.0 $300,000.0 $350,000.0 $400,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  41. 41. Revenue 17.9% 29.1% 21.5% 22.0% 18.9% 19.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
  42. 42. Government Expenditure on Education 5.5% 6.3% 4.5% 5.4% 4.5% 3.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  43. 43. Labor Force Source: The World Bank, 2020. 20,977.4 107,371.8 27,271.1 9,692.0 58,004.3 19,356.0 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Thousands
  44. 44. Labor Force (Female) 42.9% 43.6% 43.0% 42.2% 37.8% 45.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
  45. 45. Unemployment 10.4% 12.0% 9.7% 7.1% 3.7% 3.2% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
  46. 46. Energy Use Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015. 2,030 1,496 724 2,006 1,537 790 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
  47. 47. Renewable Electricity Output 28.1% 74.0% 68.2% 43.6% 15.4% 52.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015. Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
  48. 48. Population Living in Slums 14.7% 16.3% 27.8% 8.8% 16.0% 33.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of Urban Population
  49. 49. External Debt Stocks 64.6% 31.8% 44.2% 38.5% 29.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GNI
  50. 50. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio 13.5% 10.2% 17.0% 7.5% 11.0% 12.9% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  51. 51. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans 5.7% 3.1% 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  52. 52. Deposit Interest Rate 47.3% 5.4% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  53. 53. Lending Interest Rate 67.3% 37.5% 11.8% 4.2% 8.5% 17.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  54. 54. Listed Domestic Companies Source: The World Bank, 2019. 91 324 66 203 139 196 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Total
  55. 55. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies $39,393.54 $1,187,361.69 $132,040.28 $203,791.65 $413,618.82 $98,964.96 $0.0 $200,000.0 $400,000.0 $600,000.0 $800,000.0 $1,000,000.0 $1,200,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
  56. 56. Strength of Legal Rights Index Source: The World Bank, 2019. 2 2 11 4 10 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
  57. 57. Military Expenditure 1.9% 3.9% 11.0% 7.2% 2.0% 5.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
  58. 58. WHAT WE THINK Winning an election does not resolve our problems The reinvention of big global cities North America: From shared prosperity to failed state Who will win the U.S. elections? Will we avoid another lost decade? Inequality is not a good business The Lebanese mirror Wirecard, external audit and the public interest OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Walter Buchanan: US Elections 2020 Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic Willingness to Pay & Value Stick James Francum – Perspective from Germany Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer Antonio Prida: Mediación Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19 OTHER Encuesta Resiliencia Económica: Octubre 2020 Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China Ranking Empresas Zombies Mexico: Q2 2020 Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 ¿Por qué medir la confianza económica? Perspectivas internacionales 2020 Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  59. 59. We care about your business priorities. Let’s talk! E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309 Skype: nuricua Twitter: @a_nuricumbo Office: Montes Urales 424 Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX Please visit our website

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