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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. March 2021.

Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.

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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. March 2021.

  1. 1. LATIN AMERICA UPDATE March 2021 www.nuricumbo.com
  2. 2. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0% 2021 Economic Growth 6.0% 5.6% 4.0% Total Vaccinations (Estimated 2021) 2,750 Million 2,400 Million 1,800 Million Reinfections New COVID variants do not generate new massive reinfections. There are reinfections with new variants but they are not massive. New COVID variants prove to be highly transmittable and infectious. Financial Crisis The problem of overdue portfolios does not worsen. Credit collection reactivates quickly in H1 2021. Economic Crisis does not translate into Financial Crisis. Bankruptcies of financial institutions are limited. Economic Crisis translates into Financial Crisis. Bankruptcies of multiple major financial institutions. Oil Price (2021) $50 $65 $80 USA - China Despite the natural conflicts between an emerging power and a hegemonic power, cooperative ties prevail. "New Cold War" develops but with different levels and nuances. Conflict leads to important military clashes in the South China Sea. 25% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 60% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 15% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  3. 3. LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0% 2021 Economic Growth 4.5% 3.8% 3.0% Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5% PIB per Capita (USD per annum) 10,000 9,000 7,000 Inequality (Gini) 0.44 0.46 0.48 Herd Immunity Early 2023 Late 2024 Late 2025 or later 15% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 50% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 35% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  4. 4. NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall México: -7.5% Estados Unidos: -4.0% Canadá: -6.5% México: -8.5% Estados Unidos: -4.3% Canadá: -7.1% México: -10.0% Estados Unidos: -5.0% Canadá: -7.5% 2021 Economic Growth México: 6.5% Estados Unidos: 6.5% Canadá: 6.5% México: 5.5% Estados Unidos: 5.5% Canadá: 5.5% México: 3.0% Estados Unidos: 3.5% Canadá: 3.5% Time to Herd Immunity México: 900 days Estados Unidos: 130 days Canadá: 500 days México: 1,000 days Estados Unidos: 155 days Canadá: 600 days México: 1,500 days Estados Unidos: 200 days Canadá: 800 days USMCA Alignment reached in policies, interests and visions between the three trading partners. There are controversies. Some investments are canceled but many others go ahead. Labor, environmental and regulatory disputes prove disruptive for most investments. Cooperation The three governments agree on a pragmatic agenda that seeks to make the most of the TMEC. Little progress at the regional level. USA too busy with domestic priorities. Elections in Mexico and Canada produce totally divergent views. Canada and the USA align and forget Mexico. Energy Policy Mexico’s mid-term elections produce a more diverse political balance that stops major policy changes. Mexico rectifies some of the recent policy changes and prevents major disputes, although confidence is badly damaged. Mexico’s recent changes in energy policies results in major legal disputes under USMCA rules. 20% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 50% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 30% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  5. 5. MEXICO PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0% 2021 Economic Growth 6.5% 5.5% 3.0% Interest Rate 3.5% 4.0% 5.5% Inflation 3.0% 3.5% 4.5% Exchange Rate (USD/MXN) 19.0 22.0 25.0 Mid-Term Elections Peaceful and plural elections. Diverse Congress results in more power sharing and more checks and balances. More or less clean elections. Diverse Congress = power sharing. Status Quo but with greater openness. Controversial elections. Majority Party = radical politics. Pemex drags the sovereign's rating. Pemex Pemex without crisis. Sovereign credit rating remains stable. Pemex without crisis but financial bomb keeps ticking. Sovereign credit rating deteriorates slightly. Pemex becomes a major issue and there is significant impact on sovereign credit rating. 15% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 50% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 35% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  6. 6. $5.19 $5.46 $5.60 $0.00 $2.50 $5.00 $7.50 December January February Brazil Exchange Rates $3,439.00 $3,569.07 $3,620.72 $0.00 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 $4,500.00 December January February Colombia $19.90 $20.58 $20.86 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 December January February Mexico $3.62 $3.63 $3.65 $0.00 $1.50 $3.00 $4.50 December January February Peru Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021. *USD / PEN *USD / MXN *USD / CLP *USD / BRL *USD / COP $710.50 $734.81 $723.89 $0.00 $300.00 $600.00 $900.00 December January February Chile *USD / CLP $84.08 $87.30 $89.85 $0.00 $30.00 $60.00 $90.00 $120.00 December January February Argentina *USD / ARS
  7. 7. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021. 35.80% 36.10% 38.50% 0.00% 15.00% 30.00% 45.00% November December January Argentina Inflation Rate 4.31% 4.52% 4.56% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% October November December Brazil 1.97% 2.68% 2.40% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% 3.60% December January February Peru 1.49% 1.61% 1.60% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% November December January Colombia 2.70% 3.00% 3.10% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% November December January Chile 3.33% 3.15% 3.54% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% November December January Mexico
  8. 8. $39,546 $39,473 $39,718 $0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 December January February Argentina International Reserves $354,546 $356,004 $355,620 $0 $120,000 $240,000 $360,000 $480,000 November December January Brazil $57,245 $59,031 $59,001 $0 $18,000 $36,000 $54,000 $72,000 November December January Colombia $39,200 $39,850 $40,355 $0 $13,000 $26,000 $39,000 $52,000 December January February Chile $195,667 $195,946 $195,270 $0 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $240,000 December January February Mexico $74,707 $76,474 $76,029 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 December January February Peru *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
  9. 9. 51,226.49 48,257.14 48,432.27 0 16,000 32,000 48,000 64,000 December January February Argentina Capital Markets 119,017.24 115,067.54 110,035.17 0 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 December January February Brazil 1,437.89 1,348.12 1,359.48 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 December January February Colombia 44,066.88 42,985.73 44,592.91 0 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 December January February Mexico 4,177.44 4,288.65 4,573.37 0 1,200 2,400 3,600 4,800 December January February Chile *IPSA:IND *MEXBOL:IND *SPBLPGPT:IND *MERVAL:IND *IBOV:IND *COLCAP:IND Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021. 20,822.15 21,110.22 22,530.22 0 7,000 14,000 21,000 28,000 December January February Peru *SPBLPGPT:IND
  10. 10. Foreign Direct Investmet $11,517 $11,873 $6,663.00 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Argentina $68,885 $78,162 $69,174 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2017 2018 2019 Brazil $13,836 $11,535 $14,314 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 2017 2018 2019 Colombia $6,128 $7,323 $11,928 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Chile $33,030 $37,682 $29,354 $0 $12,000 $24,000 $36,000 $48,000 2017 2018 2019 Mexico $6,860 $6,488 $8,892 $0 $3,000 $6,000 $9,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Peru Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
  11. 11. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC (September 10, 2020) Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021. Brazil BB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 18, 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 6, 2020) Chile A- With STABLE Outlook (October 15, 2020) Mexico BBB- With STABLE Outlook (November 11, 2020) Peru BBB+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 15, 2020)
  12. 12. Credit Ratings Argentina Ca With STABLE Outlook (September 28, 2020) Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021. Brazil Ba2 With STABLE Outlook (May 15, 2020) Colombia Baa2 With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2020) Chile A1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (August 25, 2020) Mexico Baa1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (April 17, 2020) Peru A3 With STABLE Outlook (June 25, 2019)
  13. 13. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC+ With STABLE Outlook (September 7, 2020) Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021. Brazil BB- With STABLE Outlook (December 10, 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (October 28, 2020) Chile A+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (April 27, 2020) Mexico BBB With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (November 23, 2020)
  14. 14. Country Presidents Argentina President: Alberto Fernandez Birth: April 2, 1959 In Office Since: December 10, 2019 Political Party: Frente de Todos Brazil President: Jair Bolsonaro Birth: March 21, 1955 In Office Since: January 1, 2019 Political Party: PSL Colombia President: Ivan Duque Marquez Birth: August 1, 1976 In Office Since: August 7, 2018 Political Party: Centro Democratico Chile President: Sebastian Piñera E. Birth: December 1, 1949 In Office Since: March 11, 2018 Political Party: Independent Mexico President: Andres Manuel Lopez O. Birth: November 13, 1953 In Office Since: December 1, 2018 Political Party: Morena Peru President: Francisco Sagasti Birth: October 10, 1944 In Office Since: November 17, 2020 Political Party: Partido Morado
  15. 15. Of all major Latam economies, only Chile will fully recover from the pandemic in the near future
  16. 16. Mexico is in the process of creating the world’s largest Cannabis market
  17. 17. E-commerce is one of the few bright spots in Latin America this year
  18. 18. Latam debt has been increasing across the board
  19. 19. Impact of U.S. stimulus package could benefit Latam via remittances
  20. 20. SPAC boom in the U.S. could trigger a wave of M&A activity in Latam
  21. 21. WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  22. 22. COMPANY PROFIT Our Firm at a glance Key Facts Industries • 50+ CONSULTANTS • MULTIDISCIPLINARY • BIG 4 BACKGROUND • INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE • ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO • ABLE TO TRAVEL • FLEXIBILITY • BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL Professional Organizations Our Service Portfolio • MANUFACTURING • FINANCIAL SERVICES • PROFESSIONAL SERVICES • TRADING • RETAIL • ADVERTISING • EDUCATION • PRIVATE EQUITY • FAMILY BUSINESS • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS • MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES • ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE • EXTERNAL AUDIT • INTERNAL AUDIT • PART TIME CFO’S • INTERIM MANAGEMENT • FORENSIC • TAX • TRANSFORMATIONS • ADVISORY BOARD For more information: www.nuricumbo.com BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE LESAFFRE PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN KANDEO SGS 1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020 Professional Careers History Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group
  23. 23. WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL PROJECTS.  Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.  Teams of highly experienced consultants.  Our consultants have on average 20/25 years of professional experience.  Reduced learning curve / More productivity.  High degree of flexibility.  Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and Accounting.  Big Four / Big Consulting background. Who are we?
  24. 24.  Internal and External Audit.  Special reviews (financial, process, operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)  Financial Due Diligence for M&A.  Tax Compliance.  Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.  Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)  Interim Project Teams.  Specialized Training Programs.  Debt/Equity Solutions.  Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos). How do we help some of our clients?
  25. 25. WHAT WE THINK What to Expect from 2021 Winning an election does not resolve our problems The reinvention of big global cities North America: From shared prosperity to failed state Who will win the U.S. elections? Will we avoid another lost decade? Inequality is not a good business The Lebanese mirror Wirecard, external audit and the public interest OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Book Review: Why Nations Fail Walter Buchanan: US Elections 2020 Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic Willingness to Pay & Value Stick James Francum – Perspective from Germany Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer Antonio Prida: Mediación Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19 OTHER Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China Ranking Empresas Zombies Mexico: Q2 2020 Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 ¿Por qué medir la confianza económica? Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  26. 26. LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW
  27. 27. Land Area Source: The World Bank, 2018. 2,736,690 8,358,140 1,109,500 743,532 1,943,950 1,280,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kilometers
  28. 28. Ease of Doing Business Index 126 124 67 59 60 76 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
  29. 29. Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  30. 30. Total Population 44,938.7 211,049.5 50,339.4 18,952.0 127,575.5 32,510.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
  31. 31. Urban Population 92% 87% 81% 88% 80% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Population
  32. 32. Poverty Headcount Ratio 1.3% 4.4% 4.2% 0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018. Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
  33. 33. Exports of Goods and Services 17.4% 14.3% 15.8% 28.2% 38.8% 24.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  34. 34. Foreign Direct Investment - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 6,663 73,503 14,313 11,928 29,360 8,891 Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
  35. 35. Gross Domestic Product $445,445.2 $1,839,758.0 $323,615.9 $282,318.2 $1,268,870.5 $226,848.1 $0 $300,000 $600,000 $900,000 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,100,000 $2,400,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Millions, Current US$
  36. 36. GDP Per Capita $23,040.3 $15,300.0 $16,012.4 $27,002.3 $20,994.0 $13,416.4 $0.0 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 $15,000.0 $20,000.0 $25,000.0 $30,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
  37. 37. GDP Growth -2.1% 1.1% 3.3% 1.1% -0.1% 2.2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  38. 38. Gross Savings 15.8% 12.2% 15.7% 18.9% 23.7% 19.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  39. 39. Personal Remittances $0.0 $10,000.0 $20,000.0 $30,000.0 $40,000.0 $528.3 $3,213.6 $6,761.9 $70.0 $39,021.8 $3,326.0 Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  40. 40. Total Reserves $44,880.6 $356,886.4 $52,652.7 $40,655.5 $183,056.1 $67,711.5 $0.0 $50,000.0 $100,000.0 $150,000.0 $200,000.0 $250,000.0 $300,000.0 $350,000.0 $400,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  41. 41. Revenue 18.8% 29.7% 24.2% 22.0% 18.8% 19.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
  42. 42. Government Expenditure on Education 5.5% 6.3% 4.5% 5.4% 4.5% 3.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  43. 43. Labor Force Source: The World Bank, 2020. 19,180.3 99,843.0 24,802.3 8,859.8 53,978.6 16,182.3 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Thousands
  44. 44. Labor Force (Female) 43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4% 38.5% 45.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
  45. 45. Unemployment 11.7% 13.7% 15.4% 11.5% 4.7% 6.2% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
  46. 46. Energy Use Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015. 2,030 1,496 724 2,006 1,537 790 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
  47. 47. Renewable Electricity Output 28.1% 74.0% 68.2% 43.6% 15.4% 52.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015. Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
  48. 48. Population Living in Slums 14.7% 16.3% 27.8% 8.8% 16.0% 33.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of Urban Population
  49. 49. External Debt Stocks 31.8% 44.2% 38.1% 29.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GNI
  50. 50. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio 13.5% 10.2% 17.0% 7.5% 11.0% 12.9% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  51. 51. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans 5.7% 3.1% 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  52. 52. Deposit Interest Rate 47.3% 5.4% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  53. 53. Lending Interest Rate 67.3% 37.5% 11.8% 4.2% 8.5% 17.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  54. 54. Listed Domestic Companies Source: The World Bank, 2019. 91 324 66 203 139 196 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Total
  55. 55. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies $39,393.54 $1,187,361.69 $132,040.28 $203,791.65 $413,618.82 $98,964.96 $0.0 $200,000.0 $400,000.0 $600,000.0 $800,000.0 $1,000,000.0 $1,200,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
  56. 56. Strength of Legal Rights Index Source: The World Bank, 2019. 2 2 11 4 10 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
  57. 57. Military Expenditure 1.9% 3.9% 11.0% 7.2% 2.0% 5.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
  58. 58. We care about your business priorities. Let’s talk! E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309 Skype: nuricua Twitter: @a_nuricumbo Office: Montes Urales 424 Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX Please visit our website

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