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LATIN
AMERICA
UPDATE
March 2021
www.nuricumbo.com
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.0% 5.6% 4.0%
Total Vaccinations
(Estimated 2021)
2,750 Million 2,400 Million 1,800 Million
Reinfections
New COVID variants do not
generate new massive
reinfections.
There are reinfections with new
variants but they are not
massive.
New COVID variants prove to be
highly transmittable and
infectious.
Financial Crisis
The problem of overdue
portfolios does not worsen.
Credit collection reactivates
quickly in H1 2021.
Economic Crisis does not
translate into Financial Crisis.
Bankruptcies of financial
institutions are limited.
Economic Crisis translates into
Financial Crisis. Bankruptcies of
multiple major financial
institutions.
Oil Price (2021) $50 $65 $80
USA - China
Despite the natural conflicts
between an emerging power and
a hegemonic power, cooperative
ties prevail.
"New Cold War" develops but
with different levels and
nuances.
Conflict leads to important
military clashes in the South
China Sea.
25%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 60%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 15%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0%
2021 Economic Growth 4.5% 3.8% 3.0%
Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5%
PIB per Capita
(USD per annum)
10,000 9,000 7,000
Inequality
(Gini)
0.44 0.46 0.48
Herd Immunity Early 2023 Late 2024 Late 2025 or later
15%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall
México: -7.5%
Estados Unidos: -4.0%
Canadá: -6.5%
México: -8.5%
Estados Unidos: -4.3%
Canadá: -7.1%
México: -10.0%
Estados Unidos: -5.0%
Canadá: -7.5%
2021 Economic Growth
México: 6.5%
Estados Unidos: 6.5%
Canadá: 6.5%
México: 5.5%
Estados Unidos: 5.5%
Canadá: 5.5%
México: 3.0%
Estados Unidos: 3.5%
Canadá: 3.5%
Time to Herd Immunity
México: 900 days
Estados Unidos: 130 days
Canadá: 500 days
México: 1,000 days
Estados Unidos: 155 days
Canadá: 600 days
México: 1,500 days
Estados Unidos: 200 days
Canadá: 800 days
USMCA
Alignment reached in policies,
interests and visions between
the three trading partners.
There are controversies. Some
investments are canceled but
many others go ahead.
Labor, environmental and
regulatory disputes prove
disruptive for most
investments.
Cooperation
The three governments agree on
a pragmatic agenda that seeks
to make the most of the TMEC.
Little progress at the regional
level. USA too busy with
domestic priorities.
Elections in Mexico and Canada
produce totally divergent views.
Canada and the USA align and
forget Mexico.
Energy Policy
Mexico’s mid-term elections
produce a more diverse political
balance that stops major policy
changes.
Mexico rectifies some of the
recent policy changes and
prevents major disputes,
although confidence is badly
damaged.
Mexico’s recent changes in
energy policies results in major
legal disputes under USMCA
rules.
20%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 30%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
MEXICO PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.5% 5.5% 3.0%
Interest Rate 3.5% 4.0% 5.5%
Inflation 3.0% 3.5% 4.5%
Exchange Rate
(USD/MXN)
19.0 22.0 25.0
Mid-Term Elections
Peaceful and plural elections.
Diverse Congress results in
more power sharing and more
checks and balances.
More or less clean elections.
Diverse Congress = power
sharing. Status Quo but with
greater openness.
Controversial elections.
Majority Party = radical politics.
Pemex drags the sovereign's
rating.
Pemex
Pemex without crisis. Sovereign
credit rating remains stable.
Pemex without crisis but
financial bomb keeps ticking.
Sovereign credit rating
deteriorates slightly.
Pemex becomes a major issue
and there is significant impact
on sovereign credit rating.
15%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
$5.19 $5.46 $5.60
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
December January February
Brazil
Exchange Rates
$3,439.00 $3,569.07 $3,620.72
$0.00
$1,500.00
$3,000.00
$4,500.00
December January February
Colombia
$19.90 $20.58 $20.86
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
December January February
Mexico
$3.62 $3.63 $3.65
$0.00
$1.50
$3.00
$4.50
December January February
Peru
Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021.
*USD / PEN
*USD / MXN
*USD / CLP
*USD / BRL
*USD / COP
$710.50 $734.81 $723.89
$0.00
$300.00
$600.00
$900.00
December January February
Chile
*USD / CLP
$84.08 $87.30 $89.85
$0.00
$30.00
$60.00
$90.00
$120.00
December January February
Argentina
*USD / ARS
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
35.80% 36.10% 38.50%
0.00%
15.00%
30.00%
45.00%
November December January
Argentina
Inflation Rate
4.31% 4.52% 4.56%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
October November December
Brazil
1.97%
2.68% 2.40%
0.00%
0.90%
1.80%
2.70%
3.60%
December January February
Peru
1.49% 1.61% 1.60%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
November December January
Colombia
2.70% 3.00% 3.10%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
November December January
Chile
3.33% 3.15% 3.54%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
November December January
Mexico
$39,546 $39,473 $39,718
$0
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
December January February
Argentina
International Reserves
$354,546 $356,004 $355,620
$0
$120,000
$240,000
$360,000
$480,000
November December January
Brazil
$57,245 $59,031 $59,001
$0
$18,000
$36,000
$54,000
$72,000
November December January
Colombia
$39,200 $39,850 $40,355
$0
$13,000
$26,000
$39,000
$52,000
December January February
Chile
$195,667 $195,946 $195,270
$0
$60,000
$120,000
$180,000
$240,000
December January February
Mexico
$74,707 $76,474 $76,029
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
December January February
Peru
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
51,226.49 48,257.14 48,432.27
0
16,000
32,000
48,000
64,000
December January February
Argentina
Capital Markets
119,017.24 115,067.54 110,035.17
0
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
December January February
Brazil
1,437.89 1,348.12 1,359.48
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
December January February
Colombia
44,066.88 42,985.73 44,592.91
0
12,000
24,000
36,000
48,000
December January February
Mexico
4,177.44 4,288.65 4,573.37
0
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
December January February
Chile
*IPSA:IND
*MEXBOL:IND
*SPBLPGPT:IND
*MERVAL:IND
*IBOV:IND
*COLCAP:IND
Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021.
20,822.15 21,110.22 22,530.22
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
28,000
December January February
Peru
*SPBLPGPT:IND
Foreign Direct Investmet
$11,517 $11,873
$6,663.00
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Argentina
$68,885
$78,162
$69,174
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
2017 2018 2019
Brazil
$13,836
$11,535
$14,314
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2017 2018 2019
Colombia
$6,128 $7,323
$11,928
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Chile
$33,030 $37,682
$29,354
$0
$12,000
$24,000
$36,000
$48,000
2017 2018 2019
Mexico
$6,860 $6,488
$8,892
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC
(September 10, 2020)
Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 18, 2020)
Colombia
BBB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 6, 2020)
Chile
A-
With STABLE Outlook
(October 15, 2020)
Mexico
BBB-
With STABLE Outlook
(November 11, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 15, 2020)
Credit Ratings
Argentina
Ca
With STABLE Outlook
(September 28, 2020)
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021.
Brazil
Ba2
With STABLE Outlook
(May 15, 2020)
Colombia
Baa2
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Chile
A1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(August 25, 2020)
Mexico
Baa1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(April 17, 2020)
Peru
A3
With STABLE Outlook
(June 25, 2019)
Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC+
With STABLE Outlook
(September 7, 2020)
Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With STABLE Outlook
(December 10, 2020)
Colombia
BBB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(October 28, 2020)
Chile
A+
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(April 27, 2020)
Mexico
BBB
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With STABLE Outlook
(November 23, 2020)
Country Presidents
Argentina
President: Alberto Fernandez
Birth: April 2, 1959
In Office Since: December 10, 2019
Political Party: Frente de Todos
Brazil
President: Jair Bolsonaro
Birth: March 21, 1955
In Office Since: January 1, 2019
Political Party: PSL
Colombia
President: Ivan Duque Marquez
Birth: August 1, 1976
In Office Since: August 7, 2018
Political Party: Centro Democratico
Chile
President: Sebastian Piñera E.
Birth: December 1, 1949
In Office Since: March 11, 2018
Political Party: Independent
Mexico
President: Andres Manuel Lopez O.
Birth: November 13, 1953
In Office Since: December 1, 2018
Political Party: Morena
Peru
President: Francisco Sagasti
Birth: October 10, 1944
In Office Since: November 17, 2020
Political Party: Partido Morado
Of all major Latam economies, only Chile will fully
recover from the pandemic in the near future
Mexico is in the process of creating
the world’s largest Cannabis market
E-commerce is one of the few bright spots in
Latin America this year
Latam debt has been increasing across the board
Impact of U.S. stimulus package could benefit
Latam via remittances
SPAC boom in the U.S. could trigger a wave of
M&A activity in Latam
WE ARE NURICUMBO +
PARTNERS
COMPANY
PROFIT
Our Firm at a glance
Key Facts Industries
• 50+ CONSULTANTS
• MULTIDISCIPLINARY
• BIG 4 BACKGROUND
• INTERNATIONAL
EXPOSURE
• ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO
• ABLE TO TRAVEL
• FLEXIBILITY
• BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL
Professional
Organizations
Our Service
Portfolio
• MANUFACTURING
• FINANCIAL SERVICES
• PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
• TRADING
• RETAIL
• ADVERTISING
• EDUCATION
• PRIVATE EQUITY
• FAMILY BUSINESS
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS
• MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES
• ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• AMERICAN CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE
• EXTERNAL AUDIT
• INTERNAL AUDIT
• PART TIME CFO’S
• INTERIM
MANAGEMENT
• FORENSIC
• TAX
• TRANSFORMATIONS
• ADVISORY BOARD
For more information: www.nuricumbo.com
BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE
LESAFFRE
PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN
KANDEO SGS
1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020
Professional Careers
History
Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group
WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE
RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL
PROJECTS.
 Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial
but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.
 Teams of highly experienced consultants.
 Our consultants have on average 20/25
years of professional experience.
 Reduced learning curve / More productivity.
 High degree of flexibility.
 Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and
Accounting.
 Big Four / Big Consulting background.
Who are we?
 Internal and External Audit.
 Special reviews (financial, process,
operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)
 Financial Due Diligence for M&A.
 Tax Compliance.
 Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.
 Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)
 Interim Project Teams.
 Specialized Training Programs.
 Debt/Equity Solutions.
 Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos).
How do we help some of our clients?
WHAT WE THINK
What to Expect from 2021
Winning an election does not resolve our problems
The reinvention of big global cities
North America: From shared prosperity to failed state
Who will win the U.S. elections?
Will we avoid another lost decade?
Inequality is not a good business
The Lebanese mirror
Wirecard, external audit and the public interest
OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL
Book Review: Why Nations Fail
Walter Buchanan: US Elections 2020
Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia
Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic
Willingness to Pay & Value Stick
James Francum – Perspective from Germany
Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer
Antonio Prida: Mediación
Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19
OTHER
Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China
Ranking Empresas Zombies Mexico: Q2 2020
Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017
¿Por qué medir la confianza económica?
Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW
Land Area
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
2,736,690
8,358,140
1,109,500
743,532
1,943,950
1,280,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kilometers
Ease of Doing Business Index
126 124
67
59 60
76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
Population Growth
1.0%
0.8%
1.4%
1.2%
1.1%
1.6%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Annual Percentage
Total Population
44,938.7
211,049.5
50,339.4
18,952.0
127,575.5
32,510.5
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
Urban Population
92%
87%
81%
88%
80% 78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of Total Population
Poverty Headcount Ratio
1.3%
4.4%
4.2%
0.3%
1.7%
2.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018.
Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
Exports of Goods and Services
17.4%
14.3%
15.8%
28.2%
38.8%
24.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
Foreign Direct Investment
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
6,663
73,503
14,313
11,928
29,360
8,891
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
Gross Domestic Product
$445,445.2
$1,839,758.0
$323,615.9 $282,318.2
$1,268,870.5
$226,848.1
$0
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
$1,200,000
$1,500,000
$1,800,000
$2,100,000
$2,400,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Millions, Current US$
GDP Per Capita
$23,040.3
$15,300.0 $16,012.4
$27,002.3
$20,994.0
$13,416.4
$0.0
$5,000.0
$10,000.0
$15,000.0
$20,000.0
$25,000.0
$30,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
GDP Growth
-2.1%
1.1%
3.3%
1.1%
-0.1%
2.2%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Annual Percentage
Gross Savings
15.8%
12.2%
15.7%
18.9%
23.7%
19.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
Personal Remittances
$0.0
$10,000.0
$20,000.0
$30,000.0
$40,000.0
$528.3 $3,213.6
$6,761.9
$70.0
$39,021.8
$3,326.0
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$
Total Reserves
$44,880.6
$356,886.4
$52,652.7
$40,655.5
$183,056.1
$67,711.5
$0.0
$50,000.0
$100,000.0
$150,000.0
$200,000.0
$250,000.0
$300,000.0
$350,000.0
$400,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$
Revenue
18.8%
29.7%
24.2%
22.0%
18.8% 19.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019.
Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
Government Expenditure on Education
5.5%
6.3%
4.5%
5.4%
4.5%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
Labor Force
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
19,180.3
99,843.0
24,802.3
8,859.8
53,978.6
16,182.3
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Thousands
Labor Force (Female)
43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4%
38.5%
45.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
Unemployment
11.7%
13.7%
15.4%
11.5%
4.7%
6.2%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
Energy Use
Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015.
2,030
1,496
724
2,006
1,537
790
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
Renewable Electricity Output
28.1%
74.0%
68.2%
43.6%
15.4%
52.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2015.
Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
Population Living in Slums
14.7%
16.3%
27.8%
8.8%
16.0%
33.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
Note: Percentage of Urban Population
External Debt Stocks
31.8%
44.2%
38.1%
29.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of GNI
Bank Capital to Assets Ratio
13.5%
10.2%
17.0%
7.5%
11.0%
12.9%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
Bank Nonperforming Loans
to Total Gross Loans
5.7%
3.1%
4.2%
2.1% 2.1%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
Deposit Interest Rate
47.3%
5.4% 4.5%
2.5% 3.5% 4.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage
Lending Interest Rate
67.3%
37.5%
11.8%
4.2%
8.5%
17.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage
Listed Domestic Companies
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
91
324
66
203
139
196
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Total
Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic
Companies
$39,393.54
$1,187,361.69
$132,040.28
$203,791.65
$413,618.82
$98,964.96
$0.0
$200,000.0
$400,000.0
$600,000.0
$800,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,200,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
Strength of Legal Rights Index
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
2 2
11
4
10
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
Military Expenditure
1.9%
3.9%
11.0%
7.2%
2.0%
5.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
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Latam Update: Mexico and Chile to Lead Recovery

  • 2. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0% 2021 Economic Growth 6.0% 5.6% 4.0% Total Vaccinations (Estimated 2021) 2,750 Million 2,400 Million 1,800 Million Reinfections New COVID variants do not generate new massive reinfections. There are reinfections with new variants but they are not massive. New COVID variants prove to be highly transmittable and infectious. Financial Crisis The problem of overdue portfolios does not worsen. Credit collection reactivates quickly in H1 2021. Economic Crisis does not translate into Financial Crisis. Bankruptcies of financial institutions are limited. Economic Crisis translates into Financial Crisis. Bankruptcies of multiple major financial institutions. Oil Price (2021) $50 $65 $80 USA - China Despite the natural conflicts between an emerging power and a hegemonic power, cooperative ties prevail. "New Cold War" develops but with different levels and nuances. Conflict leads to important military clashes in the South China Sea. 25% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 60% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 15% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  • 3. LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0% 2021 Economic Growth 4.5% 3.8% 3.0% Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5% PIB per Capita (USD per annum) 10,000 9,000 7,000 Inequality (Gini) 0.44 0.46 0.48 Herd Immunity Early 2023 Late 2024 Late 2025 or later 15% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 50% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 35% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  • 4. NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall México: -7.5% Estados Unidos: -4.0% Canadá: -6.5% México: -8.5% Estados Unidos: -4.3% Canadá: -7.1% México: -10.0% Estados Unidos: -5.0% Canadá: -7.5% 2021 Economic Growth México: 6.5% Estados Unidos: 6.5% Canadá: 6.5% México: 5.5% Estados Unidos: 5.5% Canadá: 5.5% México: 3.0% Estados Unidos: 3.5% Canadá: 3.5% Time to Herd Immunity México: 900 days Estados Unidos: 130 days Canadá: 500 days México: 1,000 days Estados Unidos: 155 days Canadá: 600 days México: 1,500 days Estados Unidos: 200 days Canadá: 800 days USMCA Alignment reached in policies, interests and visions between the three trading partners. There are controversies. Some investments are canceled but many others go ahead. Labor, environmental and regulatory disputes prove disruptive for most investments. Cooperation The three governments agree on a pragmatic agenda that seeks to make the most of the TMEC. Little progress at the regional level. USA too busy with domestic priorities. Elections in Mexico and Canada produce totally divergent views. Canada and the USA align and forget Mexico. Energy Policy Mexico’s mid-term elections produce a more diverse political balance that stops major policy changes. Mexico rectifies some of the recent policy changes and prevents major disputes, although confidence is badly damaged. Mexico’s recent changes in energy policies results in major legal disputes under USMCA rules. 20% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 50% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 30% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  • 5. MEXICO PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0% 2021 Economic Growth 6.5% 5.5% 3.0% Interest Rate 3.5% 4.0% 5.5% Inflation 3.0% 3.5% 4.5% Exchange Rate (USD/MXN) 19.0 22.0 25.0 Mid-Term Elections Peaceful and plural elections. Diverse Congress results in more power sharing and more checks and balances. More or less clean elections. Diverse Congress = power sharing. Status Quo but with greater openness. Controversial elections. Majority Party = radical politics. Pemex drags the sovereign's rating. Pemex Pemex without crisis. Sovereign credit rating remains stable. Pemex without crisis but financial bomb keeps ticking. Sovereign credit rating deteriorates slightly. Pemex becomes a major issue and there is significant impact on sovereign credit rating. 15% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 50% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 35% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  • 6. $5.19 $5.46 $5.60 $0.00 $2.50 $5.00 $7.50 December January February Brazil Exchange Rates $3,439.00 $3,569.07 $3,620.72 $0.00 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 $4,500.00 December January February Colombia $19.90 $20.58 $20.86 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 December January February Mexico $3.62 $3.63 $3.65 $0.00 $1.50 $3.00 $4.50 December January February Peru Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021. *USD / PEN *USD / MXN *USD / CLP *USD / BRL *USD / COP $710.50 $734.81 $723.89 $0.00 $300.00 $600.00 $900.00 December January February Chile *USD / CLP $84.08 $87.30 $89.85 $0.00 $30.00 $60.00 $90.00 $120.00 December January February Argentina *USD / ARS
  • 7. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021. 35.80% 36.10% 38.50% 0.00% 15.00% 30.00% 45.00% November December January Argentina Inflation Rate 4.31% 4.52% 4.56% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% October November December Brazil 1.97% 2.68% 2.40% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% 3.60% December January February Peru 1.49% 1.61% 1.60% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% November December January Colombia 2.70% 3.00% 3.10% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% November December January Chile 3.33% 3.15% 3.54% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% November December January Mexico
  • 8. $39,546 $39,473 $39,718 $0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 December January February Argentina International Reserves $354,546 $356,004 $355,620 $0 $120,000 $240,000 $360,000 $480,000 November December January Brazil $57,245 $59,031 $59,001 $0 $18,000 $36,000 $54,000 $72,000 November December January Colombia $39,200 $39,850 $40,355 $0 $13,000 $26,000 $39,000 $52,000 December January February Chile $195,667 $195,946 $195,270 $0 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $240,000 December January February Mexico $74,707 $76,474 $76,029 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 December January February Peru *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
  • 9. 51,226.49 48,257.14 48,432.27 0 16,000 32,000 48,000 64,000 December January February Argentina Capital Markets 119,017.24 115,067.54 110,035.17 0 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 December January February Brazil 1,437.89 1,348.12 1,359.48 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 December January February Colombia 44,066.88 42,985.73 44,592.91 0 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 December January February Mexico 4,177.44 4,288.65 4,573.37 0 1,200 2,400 3,600 4,800 December January February Chile *IPSA:IND *MEXBOL:IND *SPBLPGPT:IND *MERVAL:IND *IBOV:IND *COLCAP:IND Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021. 20,822.15 21,110.22 22,530.22 0 7,000 14,000 21,000 28,000 December January February Peru *SPBLPGPT:IND
  • 10. Foreign Direct Investmet $11,517 $11,873 $6,663.00 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Argentina $68,885 $78,162 $69,174 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2017 2018 2019 Brazil $13,836 $11,535 $14,314 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 2017 2018 2019 Colombia $6,128 $7,323 $11,928 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Chile $33,030 $37,682 $29,354 $0 $12,000 $24,000 $36,000 $48,000 2017 2018 2019 Mexico $6,860 $6,488 $8,892 $0 $3,000 $6,000 $9,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Peru Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
  • 11. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC (September 10, 2020) Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021. Brazil BB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 18, 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 6, 2020) Chile A- With STABLE Outlook (October 15, 2020) Mexico BBB- With STABLE Outlook (November 11, 2020) Peru BBB+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 15, 2020)
  • 12. Credit Ratings Argentina Ca With STABLE Outlook (September 28, 2020) Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021. Brazil Ba2 With STABLE Outlook (May 15, 2020) Colombia Baa2 With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2020) Chile A1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (August 25, 2020) Mexico Baa1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (April 17, 2020) Peru A3 With STABLE Outlook (June 25, 2019)
  • 13. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC+ With STABLE Outlook (September 7, 2020) Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021. Brazil BB- With STABLE Outlook (December 10, 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (October 28, 2020) Chile A+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (April 27, 2020) Mexico BBB With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (November 23, 2020)
  • 14. Country Presidents Argentina President: Alberto Fernandez Birth: April 2, 1959 In Office Since: December 10, 2019 Political Party: Frente de Todos Brazil President: Jair Bolsonaro Birth: March 21, 1955 In Office Since: January 1, 2019 Political Party: PSL Colombia President: Ivan Duque Marquez Birth: August 1, 1976 In Office Since: August 7, 2018 Political Party: Centro Democratico Chile President: Sebastian Piñera E. Birth: December 1, 1949 In Office Since: March 11, 2018 Political Party: Independent Mexico President: Andres Manuel Lopez O. Birth: November 13, 1953 In Office Since: December 1, 2018 Political Party: Morena Peru President: Francisco Sagasti Birth: October 10, 1944 In Office Since: November 17, 2020 Political Party: Partido Morado
  • 15. Of all major Latam economies, only Chile will fully recover from the pandemic in the near future
  • 16. Mexico is in the process of creating the world’s largest Cannabis market
  • 17. E-commerce is one of the few bright spots in Latin America this year
  • 18. Latam debt has been increasing across the board
  • 19. Impact of U.S. stimulus package could benefit Latam via remittances
  • 20. SPAC boom in the U.S. could trigger a wave of M&A activity in Latam
  • 21. WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  • 22. COMPANY PROFIT Our Firm at a glance Key Facts Industries • 50+ CONSULTANTS • MULTIDISCIPLINARY • BIG 4 BACKGROUND • INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE • ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO • ABLE TO TRAVEL • FLEXIBILITY • BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL Professional Organizations Our Service Portfolio • MANUFACTURING • FINANCIAL SERVICES • PROFESSIONAL SERVICES • TRADING • RETAIL • ADVERTISING • EDUCATION • PRIVATE EQUITY • FAMILY BUSINESS • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS • MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES • ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE • EXTERNAL AUDIT • INTERNAL AUDIT • PART TIME CFO’S • INTERIM MANAGEMENT • FORENSIC • TAX • TRANSFORMATIONS • ADVISORY BOARD For more information: www.nuricumbo.com BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE LESAFFRE PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN KANDEO SGS 1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020 Professional Careers History Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group
  • 23. WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL PROJECTS.  Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.  Teams of highly experienced consultants.  Our consultants have on average 20/25 years of professional experience.  Reduced learning curve / More productivity.  High degree of flexibility.  Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and Accounting.  Big Four / Big Consulting background. Who are we?
  • 24.  Internal and External Audit.  Special reviews (financial, process, operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)  Financial Due Diligence for M&A.  Tax Compliance.  Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.  Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)  Interim Project Teams.  Specialized Training Programs.  Debt/Equity Solutions.  Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos). How do we help some of our clients?
  • 25. WHAT WE THINK What to Expect from 2021 Winning an election does not resolve our problems The reinvention of big global cities North America: From shared prosperity to failed state Who will win the U.S. elections? Will we avoid another lost decade? Inequality is not a good business The Lebanese mirror Wirecard, external audit and the public interest OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Book Review: Why Nations Fail Walter Buchanan: US Elections 2020 Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic Willingness to Pay & Value Stick James Francum – Perspective from Germany Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer Antonio Prida: Mediación Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19 OTHER Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China Ranking Empresas Zombies Mexico: Q2 2020 Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 ¿Por qué medir la confianza económica? Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  • 27. Land Area Source: The World Bank, 2018. 2,736,690 8,358,140 1,109,500 743,532 1,943,950 1,280,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kilometers
  • 28. Ease of Doing Business Index 126 124 67 59 60 76 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
  • 29. Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  • 30. Total Population 44,938.7 211,049.5 50,339.4 18,952.0 127,575.5 32,510.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
  • 31. Urban Population 92% 87% 81% 88% 80% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Population
  • 32. Poverty Headcount Ratio 1.3% 4.4% 4.2% 0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018. Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
  • 33. Exports of Goods and Services 17.4% 14.3% 15.8% 28.2% 38.8% 24.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  • 35. Gross Domestic Product $445,445.2 $1,839,758.0 $323,615.9 $282,318.2 $1,268,870.5 $226,848.1 $0 $300,000 $600,000 $900,000 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,100,000 $2,400,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Millions, Current US$
  • 36. GDP Per Capita $23,040.3 $15,300.0 $16,012.4 $27,002.3 $20,994.0 $13,416.4 $0.0 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 $15,000.0 $20,000.0 $25,000.0 $30,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
  • 37. GDP Growth -2.1% 1.1% 3.3% 1.1% -0.1% 2.2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  • 38. Gross Savings 15.8% 12.2% 15.7% 18.9% 23.7% 19.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  • 41. Revenue 18.8% 29.7% 24.2% 22.0% 18.8% 19.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
  • 42. Government Expenditure on Education 5.5% 6.3% 4.5% 5.4% 4.5% 3.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  • 43. Labor Force Source: The World Bank, 2020. 19,180.3 99,843.0 24,802.3 8,859.8 53,978.6 16,182.3 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Thousands
  • 44. Labor Force (Female) 43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4% 38.5% 45.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
  • 45. Unemployment 11.7% 13.7% 15.4% 11.5% 4.7% 6.2% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
  • 46. Energy Use Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015. 2,030 1,496 724 2,006 1,537 790 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
  • 47. Renewable Electricity Output 28.1% 74.0% 68.2% 43.6% 15.4% 52.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015. Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
  • 48. Population Living in Slums 14.7% 16.3% 27.8% 8.8% 16.0% 33.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of Urban Population
  • 49. External Debt Stocks 31.8% 44.2% 38.1% 29.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GNI
  • 50. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio 13.5% 10.2% 17.0% 7.5% 11.0% 12.9% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  • 51. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans 5.7% 3.1% 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  • 52. Deposit Interest Rate 47.3% 5.4% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  • 53. Lending Interest Rate 67.3% 37.5% 11.8% 4.2% 8.5% 17.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  • 54. Listed Domestic Companies Source: The World Bank, 2019. 91 324 66 203 139 196 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Total
  • 55. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies $39,393.54 $1,187,361.69 $132,040.28 $203,791.65 $413,618.82 $98,964.96 $0.0 $200,000.0 $400,000.0 $600,000.0 $800,000.0 $1,000,000.0 $1,200,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
  • 56. Strength of Legal Rights Index Source: The World Bank, 2019. 2 2 11 4 10 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
  • 57. Military Expenditure 1.9% 3.9% 11.0% 7.2% 2.0% 5.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
  • 58. We care about your business priorities. Let’s talk! E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309 Skype: nuricua Twitter: @a_nuricumbo Office: Montes Urales 424 Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX Please visit our website