Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.
2. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.0% 5.6% 4.0%
Total Vaccinations
(Estimated 2021)
2,750 Million 2,400 Million 1,800 Million
Reinfections
New COVID variants do not
generate new massive
reinfections.
There are reinfections with new
variants but they are not
massive.
New COVID variants prove to be
highly transmittable and
infectious.
Financial Crisis
The problem of overdue
portfolios does not worsen.
Credit collection reactivates
quickly in H1 2021.
Economic Crisis does not
translate into Financial Crisis.
Bankruptcies of financial
institutions are limited.
Economic Crisis translates into
Financial Crisis. Bankruptcies of
multiple major financial
institutions.
Oil Price (2021) $50 $65 $80
USA - China
Despite the natural conflicts
between an emerging power and
a hegemonic power, cooperative
ties prevail.
"New Cold War" develops but
with different levels and
nuances.
Conflict leads to important
military clashes in the South
China Sea.
25%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 60%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 15%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
3. LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0%
2021 Economic Growth 4.5% 3.8% 3.0%
Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5%
PIB per Capita
(USD per annum)
10,000 9,000 7,000
Inequality
(Gini)
0.44 0.46 0.48
Herd Immunity Early 2023 Late 2024 Late 2025 or later
15%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
4. NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall
México: -7.5%
Estados Unidos: -4.0%
Canadá: -6.5%
México: -8.5%
Estados Unidos: -4.3%
Canadá: -7.1%
México: -10.0%
Estados Unidos: -5.0%
Canadá: -7.5%
2021 Economic Growth
México: 6.5%
Estados Unidos: 6.5%
Canadá: 6.5%
México: 5.5%
Estados Unidos: 5.5%
Canadá: 5.5%
México: 3.0%
Estados Unidos: 3.5%
Canadá: 3.5%
Time to Herd Immunity
México: 900 days
Estados Unidos: 130 days
Canadá: 500 days
México: 1,000 days
Estados Unidos: 155 days
Canadá: 600 days
México: 1,500 days
Estados Unidos: 200 days
Canadá: 800 days
USMCA
Alignment reached in policies,
interests and visions between
the three trading partners.
There are controversies. Some
investments are canceled but
many others go ahead.
Labor, environmental and
regulatory disputes prove
disruptive for most
investments.
Cooperation
The three governments agree on
a pragmatic agenda that seeks
to make the most of the TMEC.
Little progress at the regional
level. USA too busy with
domestic priorities.
Elections in Mexico and Canada
produce totally divergent views.
Canada and the USA align and
forget Mexico.
Energy Policy
Mexico’s mid-term elections
produce a more diverse political
balance that stops major policy
changes.
Mexico rectifies some of the
recent policy changes and
prevents major disputes,
although confidence is badly
damaged.
Mexico’s recent changes in
energy policies results in major
legal disputes under USMCA
rules.
20%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 30%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
5. MEXICO PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.5% 5.5% 3.0%
Interest Rate 3.5% 4.0% 5.5%
Inflation 3.0% 3.5% 4.5%
Exchange Rate
(USD/MXN)
19.0 22.0 25.0
Mid-Term Elections
Peaceful and plural elections.
Diverse Congress results in
more power sharing and more
checks and balances.
More or less clean elections.
Diverse Congress = power
sharing. Status Quo but with
greater openness.
Controversial elections.
Majority Party = radical politics.
Pemex drags the sovereign's
rating.
Pemex
Pemex without crisis. Sovereign
credit rating remains stable.
Pemex without crisis but
financial bomb keeps ticking.
Sovereign credit rating
deteriorates slightly.
Pemex becomes a major issue
and there is significant impact
on sovereign credit rating.
15%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
6. $5.19 $5.46 $5.60
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
December January February
Brazil
Exchange Rates
$3,439.00 $3,569.07 $3,620.72
$0.00
$1,500.00
$3,000.00
$4,500.00
December January February
Colombia
$19.90 $20.58 $20.86
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
December January February
Mexico
$3.62 $3.63 $3.65
$0.00
$1.50
$3.00
$4.50
December January February
Peru
Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021.
*USD / PEN
*USD / MXN
*USD / CLP
*USD / BRL
*USD / COP
$710.50 $734.81 $723.89
$0.00
$300.00
$600.00
$900.00
December January February
Chile
*USD / CLP
$84.08 $87.30 $89.85
$0.00
$30.00
$60.00
$90.00
$120.00
December January February
Argentina
*USD / ARS
7. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
35.80% 36.10% 38.50%
0.00%
15.00%
30.00%
45.00%
November December January
Argentina
Inflation Rate
4.31% 4.52% 4.56%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
October November December
Brazil
1.97%
2.68% 2.40%
0.00%
0.90%
1.80%
2.70%
3.60%
December January February
Peru
1.49% 1.61% 1.60%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
November December January
Colombia
2.70% 3.00% 3.10%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
November December January
Chile
3.33% 3.15% 3.54%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
November December January
Mexico
8. $39,546 $39,473 $39,718
$0
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
December January February
Argentina
International Reserves
$354,546 $356,004 $355,620
$0
$120,000
$240,000
$360,000
$480,000
November December January
Brazil
$57,245 $59,031 $59,001
$0
$18,000
$36,000
$54,000
$72,000
November December January
Colombia
$39,200 $39,850 $40,355
$0
$13,000
$26,000
$39,000
$52,000
December January February
Chile
$195,667 $195,946 $195,270
$0
$60,000
$120,000
$180,000
$240,000
December January February
Mexico
$74,707 $76,474 $76,029
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
December January February
Peru
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
9. 51,226.49 48,257.14 48,432.27
0
16,000
32,000
48,000
64,000
December January February
Argentina
Capital Markets
119,017.24 115,067.54 110,035.17
0
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
December January February
Brazil
1,437.89 1,348.12 1,359.48
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
December January February
Colombia
44,066.88 42,985.73 44,592.91
0
12,000
24,000
36,000
48,000
December January February
Mexico
4,177.44 4,288.65 4,573.37
0
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
December January February
Chile
*IPSA:IND
*MEXBOL:IND
*SPBLPGPT:IND
*MERVAL:IND
*IBOV:IND
*COLCAP:IND
Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021.
20,822.15 21,110.22 22,530.22
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
28,000
December January February
Peru
*SPBLPGPT:IND
10. Foreign Direct Investmet
$11,517 $11,873
$6,663.00
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Argentina
$68,885
$78,162
$69,174
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
2017 2018 2019
Brazil
$13,836
$11,535
$14,314
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2017 2018 2019
Colombia
$6,128 $7,323
$11,928
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Chile
$33,030 $37,682
$29,354
$0
$12,000
$24,000
$36,000
$48,000
2017 2018 2019
Mexico
$6,860 $6,488
$8,892
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
11. Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC
(September 10, 2020)
Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 18, 2020)
Colombia
BBB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 6, 2020)
Chile
A-
With STABLE Outlook
(October 15, 2020)
Mexico
BBB-
With STABLE Outlook
(November 11, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 15, 2020)
12. Credit Ratings
Argentina
Ca
With STABLE Outlook
(September 28, 2020)
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021.
Brazil
Ba2
With STABLE Outlook
(May 15, 2020)
Colombia
Baa2
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Chile
A1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(August 25, 2020)
Mexico
Baa1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(April 17, 2020)
Peru
A3
With STABLE Outlook
(June 25, 2019)
13. Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC+
With STABLE Outlook
(September 7, 2020)
Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With STABLE Outlook
(December 10, 2020)
Colombia
BBB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(October 28, 2020)
Chile
A+
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(April 27, 2020)
Mexico
BBB
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With STABLE Outlook
(November 23, 2020)
14. Country Presidents
Argentina
President: Alberto Fernandez
Birth: April 2, 1959
In Office Since: December 10, 2019
Political Party: Frente de Todos
Brazil
President: Jair Bolsonaro
Birth: March 21, 1955
In Office Since: January 1, 2019
Political Party: PSL
Colombia
President: Ivan Duque Marquez
Birth: August 1, 1976
In Office Since: August 7, 2018
Political Party: Centro Democratico
Chile
President: Sebastian Piñera E.
Birth: December 1, 1949
In Office Since: March 11, 2018
Political Party: Independent
Mexico
President: Andres Manuel Lopez O.
Birth: November 13, 1953
In Office Since: December 1, 2018
Political Party: Morena
Peru
President: Francisco Sagasti
Birth: October 10, 1944
In Office Since: November 17, 2020
Political Party: Partido Morado
15. Of all major Latam economies, only Chile will fully
recover from the pandemic in the near future
16. Mexico is in the process of creating
the world’s largest Cannabis market
17. E-commerce is one of the few bright spots in
Latin America this year
22. COMPANY
PROFIT
Our Firm at a glance
Key Facts Industries
• 50+ CONSULTANTS
• MULTIDISCIPLINARY
• BIG 4 BACKGROUND
• INTERNATIONAL
EXPOSURE
• ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO
• ABLE TO TRAVEL
• FLEXIBILITY
• BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL
Professional
Organizations
Our Service
Portfolio
• MANUFACTURING
• FINANCIAL SERVICES
• PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
• TRADING
• RETAIL
• ADVERTISING
• EDUCATION
• PRIVATE EQUITY
• FAMILY BUSINESS
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS
• MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES
• ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• AMERICAN CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE
• EXTERNAL AUDIT
• INTERNAL AUDIT
• PART TIME CFO’S
• INTERIM
MANAGEMENT
• FORENSIC
• TAX
• TRANSFORMATIONS
• ADVISORY BOARD
For more information: www.nuricumbo.com
BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE
LESAFFRE
PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN
KANDEO SGS
1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020
Professional Careers
History
Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group
23. WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE
RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL
PROJECTS.
Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial
but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.
Teams of highly experienced consultants.
Our consultants have on average 20/25
years of professional experience.
Reduced learning curve / More productivity.
High degree of flexibility.
Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and
Accounting.
Big Four / Big Consulting background.
Who are we?
24. Internal and External Audit.
Special reviews (financial, process,
operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)
Financial Due Diligence for M&A.
Tax Compliance.
Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.
Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)
Interim Project Teams.
Specialized Training Programs.
Debt/Equity Solutions.
Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos).
How do we help some of our clients?
25. WHAT WE THINK
What to Expect from 2021
Winning an election does not resolve our problems
The reinvention of big global cities
North America: From shared prosperity to failed state
Who will win the U.S. elections?
Will we avoid another lost decade?
Inequality is not a good business
The Lebanese mirror
Wirecard, external audit and the public interest
OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL
Book Review: Why Nations Fail
Walter Buchanan: US Elections 2020
Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia
Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic
Willingness to Pay & Value Stick
James Francum – Perspective from Germany
Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer
Antonio Prida: Mediación
Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19
OTHER
Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China
Ranking Empresas Zombies Mexico: Q2 2020
Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017
¿Por qué medir la confianza económica?
Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
27. Land Area
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
2,736,690
8,358,140
1,109,500
743,532
1,943,950
1,280,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kilometers
28. Ease of Doing Business Index
126 124
67
59 60
76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
33. Exports of Goods and Services
17.4%
14.3%
15.8%
28.2%
38.8%
24.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
35. Gross Domestic Product
$445,445.2
$1,839,758.0
$323,615.9 $282,318.2
$1,268,870.5
$226,848.1
$0
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
$1,200,000
$1,500,000
$1,800,000
$2,100,000
$2,400,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Millions, Current US$
36. GDP Per Capita
$23,040.3
$15,300.0 $16,012.4
$27,002.3
$20,994.0
$13,416.4
$0.0
$5,000.0
$10,000.0
$15,000.0
$20,000.0
$25,000.0
$30,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
42. Government Expenditure on Education
5.5%
6.3%
4.5%
5.4%
4.5%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
43. Labor Force
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
19,180.3
99,843.0
24,802.3
8,859.8
53,978.6
16,182.3
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Thousands
44. Labor Force (Female)
43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4%
38.5%
45.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
46. Energy Use
Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015.
2,030
1,496
724
2,006
1,537
790
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
48. Population Living in Slums
14.7%
16.3%
27.8%
8.8%
16.0%
33.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
Note: Percentage of Urban Population
50. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio
13.5%
10.2%
17.0%
7.5%
11.0%
12.9%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
51. Bank Nonperforming Loans
to Total Gross Loans
5.7%
3.1%
4.2%
2.1% 2.1%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
52. Deposit Interest Rate
47.3%
5.4% 4.5%
2.5% 3.5% 4.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage
54. Listed Domestic Companies
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
91
324
66
203
139
196
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Total
55. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic
Companies
$39,393.54
$1,187,361.69
$132,040.28
$203,791.65
$413,618.82
$98,964.96
$0.0
$200,000.0
$400,000.0
$600,000.0
$800,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,200,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
56. Strength of Legal Rights Index
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
2 2
11
4
10
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
58. We care about your business priorities.
Let’s talk!
E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com
Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309
Skype: nuricua
Twitter: @a_nuricumbo
Office: Montes Urales 424
Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX
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