1.
LATIN AMERICA
UPDATE
January 2021
www.nuricumbo.com

2.
Political unrest in the U.S. increases
geopolitical risk across the world

3.
A divided USA is a target for enemies of the state,
homegrown or foreign

4.
Active militias are a real risk for the USA. And they
could join forces with Narco groups in Mexico

5.
Inequality and wealth concentration are serious
structural challenges

6.
2020 will be remembered as the year
of the Covid Recession

7.
Asia will be the world region with the
best recovery from Covid

8.
The magnitude of the Covid downfall is
similar to that of an Act of War

9.
The good news in this crisis is the incredible speed
of vaccine development and deployment

10.
A crisis with the potential to change the dynamics
between Advanced and Emerging economies

11.
Israel has done the best job in
deploying vaccines to its population

12.
Peru, Mexico and Panama have the worst
COVID death ratios in the region

13.
Due to concentration, Mexico City has become the
epicenter of the pandemic in Mexico

14.
Brazil is closing a lost decade in terms of
GDP per capita growth

15.
GDP per Capita declined significantly across
Latin America in the past decade

16.
Argentina, Peru, Ecuador and Mexico will be the
hardest hit economies in the region

17.
WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS

18.
COMPANY
PROFIT
Our Firm at a glance
Key Facts Industries
• 50+ CONSULTANTS
• MULTIDISCIPLINARY
• BIG 4 BACKGROUND
• INTERNATIONAL
EXPOSURE
• ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO
• ABLE TO TRAVEL
• FLEXIBILITY
• BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL
Professional
Organizations
Our Service
Portfolio
• MANUFACTURING
• FINANCIAL SERVICES
• PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
• TRADING
• RETAIL
• ADVERTISING
• EDUCATION
• PRIVATE EQUITY
• FAMILY BUSINESS
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS
• MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES
• ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• AMERICAN CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE
• EXTERNAL AUDIT
• INTERNAL AUDIT
• PART TIME CFO’S
• INTERIM
MANAGEMENT
• FORENSIC
• TAX
• TRANSFORMATIONS
• ADVISORY BOARD
For more information: www.nuricumbo.com
BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE LESAFFRE
PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN KANDEO SGS
1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020
Professional Careers
History
Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group

19.
WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE
RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL
PROJECTS.
ü Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial
but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.
ü Teams of highly experienced consultants.
ü Our consultants have on average 20/25
years of professional experience.
ü Reduced learning curve / More productivity.
ü High degree of flexibility.
ü Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and
Accounting.
ü Big Four / Big Consulting background.
Who are we?

20.
ü Internal and External Audit.
ü Special reviews (financial, process,
operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)
ü Financial Due Diligence for M&A.
ü Tax Compliance.
ü Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.
ü Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)
ü Interim Project Teams.
ü Specialized Training Programs.
ü Debt/Equity Solutions.
ü Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos).
How do we help some of our clients?

21.
“Armando is a much travelled accountant with international experience in commercial sector and
proven language skills. Through working with a wide range of business and in many different
countries he has developed the skill of analyzing how organizations operate in a wide variety of
geographical locations and business environments and in the assessment of internal controls.” –
Eduardo Mediavilla, Protiviti Spain
“The firm’s international experience and knowledge of consulting methodology makes them a
valuable asset to any company. I've worked with them during mandates in Germany and Canada,
and I know they strive for on-time and quality deliverables.” – Victor Terreros, Senior Project
Manager, Bell Canada
“Nuricumbo has experienced professionals with a great can-do attitude and an ability to
communicate effectively to reach set goals. My confidence in Armando's firm was demonstrated by
hiring them for a complex project with implications in Mexico and The U.S., which was successfully
delivered and at a very competitive cost.” – Henry Gonzalez, Senior Audit Manager, WPP
“The Nuricumbo firm has been fundamental to finally establish solid and reliable finance business
practices for our company in Mexico. Their vast international exposure to different types of
companies translates into deep knowledge in corporate governance applicable to companies of any
kind or size.” – Inaki Mazzaredo, VP Latam Georg Fischer
Some testimonials

22.
WHAT WE THINK
What to Expect from 2021
Winning an election does not resolve our problems
The reinvention of big global cities
North America: From shared prosperity to failed state
Who will win the U.S. elections?
Will we avoid another lost decade?
Inequality is not a good business
The Lebanese mirror
Wirecard, external audit and the public interest
OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL
Book Review: Why Nations Fail
Walter Buchanan: US Elections 2020
Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia
Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic
Willingness to Pay & Value Stick
James Francum – Perspective from Germany
Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer
Antonio Prida: Mediación
Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19
OTHER
Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China
Ranking Empresas Zombies Mexico: Q2 2020
Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017
¿Por qué medir la confianza económica?
Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media

23.
LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW

24.
$5.74 $5.33 $5.19
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
October November December
Brazil
Exchange Rates
$3,891.00 $3,621.95 $3,439.00
$0.00
$1,500.00
$3,000.00
$4,500.00
October November December
Colombia
$21.19 $20.16 $19.90
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
October November December
Mexico
$3.62 $3.60 $3.62
$0.00
$1.50
$3.00
$4.50
October November December
Peru
Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021.
*USD / PEN
*USD / MXN
*USD / CLP
*USD / BRL
*USD / COP
$773.30 $761.92 $710.50
$0.00
$300.00
$600.00
$900.00
October November December
Chile
*USD / CLP
$78.32 $81.32 $84.08
$0.00
$30.00
$60.00
$90.00
October November December
Argentina
*USD / ARS

25.
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
36.60% 37.20% 35.80%
0.00%
15.00%
30.00%
45.00%
September October November
Argentina
Inflation Rate
3.14%
3.92% 4.31%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
August September October
Brazil
1.75%
1.49% 1.61%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
October November December
Colombia
3.00% 2.70% 3.00%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
October November December
Chile
4.09%
3.33% 3.15%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
October November December
Mexico
1.72%
2.14% 1.97%
0.00%
0.90%
1.80%
2.70%
October November December
Peru

26.
$39,524 $38,622 $39,546
$0
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
October November December
Argentina
International Reserves
$356,092 $356,606 $354,546
$0
$120,000
$240,000
$360,000
$480,000
September October November
Brazil
$56,979 $56,919 $57,245
$0
$18,000
$36,000
$54,000
$72,000
September October November
Colombia
$38,260 $37,709 $39,166
$0
$13,000
$26,000
$39,000
$52,000
October November December
Chile
$194,351 $194,288 $195,667
$0
$60,000
$120,000
$180,000
$240,000
October November December
Mexico
$72,468 $71,723 $74,707
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
October November December
Peru
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.

27.
45,225.52
54,572.54 51,226.49
0
16,000
32,000
48,000
64,000
October November December
Argentina
Capital Markets
93,838.62
108,893.32 119,017.24
0
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
October November December
Brazil
1,136.75 1,258.00
1,437.89
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
October November December
Colombia
36,987.86 41,778.87 44,066.88
0
12,000
24,000
36,000
48,000
October November December
Mexico
3,539.92
4,032.87 4,177.44
0
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
October November December
Chile
*IPSA:IND
*MEXBOL:IND
*SPBLPGPT:IND
*MERVAL:IND
*IBOV:IND
*COLCAP:IND
Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021.
17,472.20 19,796.51 20,822.15
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
28,000
October November December
Peru

28.
Foreign Direct Investmet
$11,517 $11,873
$6,663.00
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Argentina
$68,885
$78,162 $73,504
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
2017 2018 2019
Brazil
$13,836
$11,535
$14,314
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2017 2018 2019
Colombia
$6,128 $7,323
$11,928
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Chile
$33,030 $37,682
$29,360
$0
$12,000
$24,000
$36,000
$48,000
2017 2018 2019
Mexico
$6,860 $6,488
$8,892
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices

29.
Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC
(September 10, 2020)
Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 18, 2020)
Colombia
BBB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 6, 2020)
Chile
A-
With STABLE Outlook
(October 15, 2020)
Mexico
BBB-
With STABLE Outlook
(November 11, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 15, 2020)

30.
Credit Ratings
Argentina
Ca
With STABLE Outlook
(September 28, 2020)
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021.
Brazil
Ba2
With STABLE Outlook
(May 15, 2020)
Colombia
Baa2
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Chile
A1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(August 25, 2020)
Mexico
Baa1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(April 17, 2020)
Peru
A3
With STABLE Outlook
(June 25, 2019)

31.
Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC+
With STABLE Outlook
(September 7, 2020)
Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With STABLE Outlook
(December 10, 2020)
Colombia
BBB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(October 28, 2020)
Chile
A+
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(April 27, 2020)
Mexico
BBB
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With STABLE Outlook
(November 23, 2020)

32.
Country Presidents
Argentina
President: Alberto Fernandez
Birth: April 2, 1959
In Office Since: December 10, 2019
Political Party: Frente de Todos
Brazil
President: Jair Bolsonaro
Birth: March 21, 1955
In Office Since: January 1, 2019
Political Party: PSL
Colombia
President: Ivan Duque Marquez
Birth: August 1, 1976
In Office Since: August 7, 2018
Political Party: Centro Democratico
Chile
President: Sebastian Piñera E.
Birth: December 1, 1949
In Office Since: March 11, 2018
Political Party: Independent
Mexico
President: Andres Manuel Lopez O.
Birth: November 13, 1953
In Office Since: December 1, 2018
Political Party: Morena
Peru
President: Francisco Sagasti
Birth: October 10, 1944
In Office Since: November 17, 2020
Political Party: Partido Morado

33.
Land Area
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
2,736,690
8,358,140
1,109,500
743,532
1,943,950
1,280,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kilometers

34.
Ease of Doing Business Index
126 124
67
59 60
76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations

35.
Population Growth
1.0%
0.8%
1.4%
1.2%
1.1%
1.6%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Annual Percentage

36.
Total Population
44,938.7
211,049.5
50,339.4
18,952.0
127,575.5
32,510.5
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants

37.
Urban Population
92%
87%
81%
88%
80% 78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of Total Population

38.
Poverty Headcount Ratio
1.3%
4.4%
4.2%
0.3%
1.7%
2.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018.
Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population

39.
Exports of Goods and Services
17.4%
14.3%
15.8%
28.2%
38.8%
24.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP

40.
Foreign Direct Investment
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Argentina
BrazilColom
bia
Chile
M
exico
Peru
6,663
73,503
14,313
11,928
29,360
8,891
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$

41.
Gross Domestic Product
$445,445.2
$1,839,758.0
$323,615.9 $282,318.2
$1,268,870.5
$226,848.1
$0
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
$1,200,000
$1,500,000
$1,800,000
$2,100,000
$2,400,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Millions, Current US$

42.
GDP Per Capita
$23,040.3
$15,300.0 $15,643.7
$25,155.0
$20,582.4
$13,416.4
$0.0
$5,000.0
$10,000.0
$15,000.0
$20,000.0
$25,000.0
$30,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $

43.
GDP Growth
-2.1%
1.1%
3.3%
1.1%
-0.1%
2.2%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Annual Percentage

44.
Gross Savings
15.8%
12.2%
15.7%
18.9%
23.7%
19.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP

45.
Personal Remittances
$0.0
$10,000.0
$20,000.0
$30,000.0
$40,000.0
Argentina
Brazil
Colom
bia
Chile
M
exico
Peru
$528.3 $3,213.6
$6,761.9
$70.0
$39,021.8
$3,326.0
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$

46.
Total Reserves
$44,880.6
$356,886.4
$52,652.7
$40,655.5
$183,056.1
$67,711.5
$0.0
$50,000.0
$100,000.0
$150,000.0
$200,000.0
$250,000.0
$300,000.0
$350,000.0
$400,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$

47.
Revenue
10.9%
29.7%
17.2%
22.0%
16.5% 16.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019.
Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP

48.
Government Expenditure on Education
5.5%
6.3%
4.5%
5.4%
4.5%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP

49.
Labor Force
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
20,977.4
107,371.8
27,271.1
9,692.0
58,004.3
19,356.0
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Thousands

50.
Labor Force (Female)
42.9% 43.6% 43.0% 42.3%
37.8%
45.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force

51.
Unemployment
10.4%
12.0%
9.7%
7.1%
3.7%
3.2%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate

52.
Energy Use
Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015.
2,030
1,496
724
2,006
1,537
790
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita

53.
Renewable Electricity Output
28.1%
74.0%
68.2%
43.6%
15.4%
52.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2015.
Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output

54.
Population Living in Slums
14.7%
16.3%
27.8%
8.8%
16.0%
33.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
Note: Percentage of Urban Population

55.
External Debt Stocks
64.6%
31.8%
44.2%
38.5%
29.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of GNI

56.
Bank Capital to Assets Ratio
13.5%
10.2%
17.0%
7.5%
11.0%
12.9%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage

57.
Bank Nonperforming Loans
to Total Gross Loans
5.7%
3.1%
4.2%
2.1% 2.1%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage

58.
Deposit Interest Rate
47.3%
5.4% 4.5%
2.5% 3.5% 4.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage

59.
Lending Interest Rate
67.3%
37.5%
11.8%
4.2%
8.5%
17.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage

60.
Listed Domestic Companies
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
91
324
66
203
139
196
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Total

61.
Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic
Companies
$39,393.54
$1,187,361.69
$132,040.28
$203,791.65
$413,618.82
$98,964.96
$0.0
$200,000.0
$400,000.0
$600,000.0
$800,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,200,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$

62.
Strength of Legal Rights Index
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
2 2
11
4
10
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong

63.
Military Expenditure
1.9%
3.9%
11.0%
7.2%
2.0%
5.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure

64.
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Let’s talk!
E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com
Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309
Skype: nuricua
Twitter: @a_nuricumbo
Office: Montes Urales 424
Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX
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