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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. January 2021.

Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.

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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. January 2021.

  1. 1. LATIN AMERICA UPDATE January 2021 www.nuricumbo.com
  2. 2. Political unrest in the U.S. increases geopolitical risk across the world
  3. 3. A divided USA is a target for enemies of the state, homegrown or foreign
  4. 4. Active militias are a real risk for the USA. And they could join forces with Narco groups in Mexico
  5. 5. Inequality and wealth concentration are serious structural challenges
  6. 6. 2020 will be remembered as the year of the Covid Recession
  7. 7. Asia will be the world region with the best recovery from Covid
  8. 8. The magnitude of the Covid downfall is similar to that of an Act of War
  9. 9. The good news in this crisis is the incredible speed of vaccine development and deployment
  10. 10. A crisis with the potential to change the dynamics between Advanced and Emerging economies
  11. 11. Israel has done the best job in deploying vaccines to its population
  12. 12. Peru, Mexico and Panama have the worst COVID death ratios in the region
  13. 13. Due to concentration, Mexico City has become the epicenter of the pandemic in Mexico
  14. 14. Brazil is closing a lost decade in terms of GDP per capita growth
  15. 15. GDP per Capita declined significantly across Latin America in the past decade
  16. 16. Argentina, Peru, Ecuador and Mexico will be the hardest hit economies in the region
  17. 17. WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  18. 18. COMPANY PROFIT Our Firm at a glance Key Facts Industries • 50+ CONSULTANTS • MULTIDISCIPLINARY • BIG 4 BACKGROUND • INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE • ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO • ABLE TO TRAVEL • FLEXIBILITY • BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL Professional Organizations Our Service Portfolio • MANUFACTURING • FINANCIAL SERVICES • PROFESSIONAL SERVICES • TRADING • RETAIL • ADVERTISING • EDUCATION • PRIVATE EQUITY • FAMILY BUSINESS • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS • MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES • ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE • EXTERNAL AUDIT • INTERNAL AUDIT • PART TIME CFO’S • INTERIM MANAGEMENT • FORENSIC • TAX • TRANSFORMATIONS • ADVISORY BOARD For more information: www.nuricumbo.com BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE LESAFFRE PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN KANDEO SGS 1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020 Professional Careers History Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group
  19. 19. WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL PROJECTS. ü Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial but sometimes difficult to deliver internally. ü Teams of highly experienced consultants. ü Our consultants have on average 20/25 years of professional experience. ü Reduced learning curve / More productivity. ü High degree of flexibility. ü Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and Accounting. ü Big Four / Big Consulting background. Who are we?
  20. 20. ü Internal and External Audit. ü Special reviews (financial, process, operational, compliance, forensic, etc.) ü Financial Due Diligence for M&A. ü Tax Compliance. ü Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board. ü Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.) ü Interim Project Teams. ü Specialized Training Programs. ü Debt/Equity Solutions. ü Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos). How do we help some of our clients?
  21. 21. “Armando is a much travelled accountant with international experience in commercial sector and proven language skills. Through working with a wide range of business and in many different countries he has developed the skill of analyzing how organizations operate in a wide variety of geographical locations and business environments and in the assessment of internal controls.” – Eduardo Mediavilla, Protiviti Spain “The firm’s international experience and knowledge of consulting methodology makes them a valuable asset to any company. I've worked with them during mandates in Germany and Canada, and I know they strive for on-time and quality deliverables.” – Victor Terreros, Senior Project Manager, Bell Canada “Nuricumbo has experienced professionals with a great can-do attitude and an ability to communicate effectively to reach set goals. My confidence in Armando's firm was demonstrated by hiring them for a complex project with implications in Mexico and The U.S., which was successfully delivered and at a very competitive cost.” – Henry Gonzalez, Senior Audit Manager, WPP “The Nuricumbo firm has been fundamental to finally establish solid and reliable finance business practices for our company in Mexico. Their vast international exposure to different types of companies translates into deep knowledge in corporate governance applicable to companies of any kind or size.” – Inaki Mazzaredo, VP Latam Georg Fischer Some testimonials
  22. 22. WHAT WE THINK What to Expect from 2021 Winning an election does not resolve our problems The reinvention of big global cities North America: From shared prosperity to failed state Who will win the U.S. elections? Will we avoid another lost decade? Inequality is not a good business The Lebanese mirror Wirecard, external audit and the public interest OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Book Review: Why Nations Fail Walter Buchanan: US Elections 2020 Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic Willingness to Pay & Value Stick James Francum – Perspective from Germany Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer Antonio Prida: Mediación Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19 OTHER Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China Ranking Empresas Zombies Mexico: Q2 2020 Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 ¿Por qué medir la confianza económica? Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  23. 23. LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW
  24. 24. $5.74 $5.33 $5.19 $0.00 $2.50 $5.00 $7.50 October November December Brazil Exchange Rates $3,891.00 $3,621.95 $3,439.00 $0.00 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 $4,500.00 October November December Colombia $21.19 $20.16 $19.90 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 October November December Mexico $3.62 $3.60 $3.62 $0.00 $1.50 $3.00 $4.50 October November December Peru Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021. *USD / PEN *USD / MXN *USD / CLP *USD / BRL *USD / COP $773.30 $761.92 $710.50 $0.00 $300.00 $600.00 $900.00 October November December Chile *USD / CLP $78.32 $81.32 $84.08 $0.00 $30.00 $60.00 $90.00 October November December Argentina *USD / ARS
  25. 25. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021. 36.60% 37.20% 35.80% 0.00% 15.00% 30.00% 45.00% September October November Argentina Inflation Rate 3.14% 3.92% 4.31% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% August September October Brazil 1.75% 1.49% 1.61% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% October November December Colombia 3.00% 2.70% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% October November December Chile 4.09% 3.33% 3.15% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% October November December Mexico 1.72% 2.14% 1.97% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% October November December Peru
  26. 26. $39,524 $38,622 $39,546 $0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 October November December Argentina International Reserves $356,092 $356,606 $354,546 $0 $120,000 $240,000 $360,000 $480,000 September October November Brazil $56,979 $56,919 $57,245 $0 $18,000 $36,000 $54,000 $72,000 September October November Colombia $38,260 $37,709 $39,166 $0 $13,000 $26,000 $39,000 $52,000 October November December Chile $194,351 $194,288 $195,667 $0 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $240,000 October November December Mexico $72,468 $71,723 $74,707 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 October November December Peru *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
  27. 27. 45,225.52 54,572.54 51,226.49 0 16,000 32,000 48,000 64,000 October November December Argentina Capital Markets 93,838.62 108,893.32 119,017.24 0 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 October November December Brazil 1,136.75 1,258.00 1,437.89 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 October November December Colombia 36,987.86 41,778.87 44,066.88 0 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 October November December Mexico 3,539.92 4,032.87 4,177.44 0 1,200 2,400 3,600 4,800 October November December Chile *IPSA:IND *MEXBOL:IND *SPBLPGPT:IND *MERVAL:IND *IBOV:IND *COLCAP:IND Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021. 17,472.20 19,796.51 20,822.15 0 7,000 14,000 21,000 28,000 October November December Peru
  28. 28. Foreign Direct Investmet $11,517 $11,873 $6,663.00 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Argentina $68,885 $78,162 $73,504 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2017 2018 2019 Brazil $13,836 $11,535 $14,314 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 2017 2018 2019 Colombia $6,128 $7,323 $11,928 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Chile $33,030 $37,682 $29,360 $0 $12,000 $24,000 $36,000 $48,000 2017 2018 2019 Mexico $6,860 $6,488 $8,892 $0 $3,000 $6,000 $9,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Peru Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
  29. 29. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC (September 10, 2020) Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021. Brazil BB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 18, 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 6, 2020) Chile A- With STABLE Outlook (October 15, 2020) Mexico BBB- With STABLE Outlook (November 11, 2020) Peru BBB+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 15, 2020)
  30. 30. Credit Ratings Argentina Ca With STABLE Outlook (September 28, 2020) Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021. Brazil Ba2 With STABLE Outlook (May 15, 2020) Colombia Baa2 With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2020) Chile A1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (August 25, 2020) Mexico Baa1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (April 17, 2020) Peru A3 With STABLE Outlook (June 25, 2019)
  31. 31. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC+ With STABLE Outlook (September 7, 2020) Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021. Brazil BB- With STABLE Outlook (December 10, 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (October 28, 2020) Chile A+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (April 27, 2020) Mexico BBB With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (November 23, 2020)
  32. 32. Country Presidents Argentina President: Alberto Fernandez Birth: April 2, 1959 In Office Since: December 10, 2019 Political Party: Frente de Todos Brazil President: Jair Bolsonaro Birth: March 21, 1955 In Office Since: January 1, 2019 Political Party: PSL Colombia President: Ivan Duque Marquez Birth: August 1, 1976 In Office Since: August 7, 2018 Political Party: Centro Democratico Chile President: Sebastian Piñera E. Birth: December 1, 1949 In Office Since: March 11, 2018 Political Party: Independent Mexico President: Andres Manuel Lopez O. Birth: November 13, 1953 In Office Since: December 1, 2018 Political Party: Morena Peru President: Francisco Sagasti Birth: October 10, 1944 In Office Since: November 17, 2020 Political Party: Partido Morado
  33. 33. Land Area Source: The World Bank, 2018. 2,736,690 8,358,140 1,109,500 743,532 1,943,950 1,280,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kilometers
  34. 34. Ease of Doing Business Index 126 124 67 59 60 76 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
  35. 35. Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  36. 36. Total Population 44,938.7 211,049.5 50,339.4 18,952.0 127,575.5 32,510.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
  37. 37. Urban Population 92% 87% 81% 88% 80% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Population
  38. 38. Poverty Headcount Ratio 1.3% 4.4% 4.2% 0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018. Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
  39. 39. Exports of Goods and Services 17.4% 14.3% 15.8% 28.2% 38.8% 24.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  40. 40. Foreign Direct Investment - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Argentina BrazilColom bia Chile M exico Peru 6,663 73,503 14,313 11,928 29,360 8,891 Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
  41. 41. Gross Domestic Product $445,445.2 $1,839,758.0 $323,615.9 $282,318.2 $1,268,870.5 $226,848.1 $0 $300,000 $600,000 $900,000 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,100,000 $2,400,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Millions, Current US$
  42. 42. GDP Per Capita $23,040.3 $15,300.0 $15,643.7 $25,155.0 $20,582.4 $13,416.4 $0.0 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 $15,000.0 $20,000.0 $25,000.0 $30,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
  43. 43. GDP Growth -2.1% 1.1% 3.3% 1.1% -0.1% 2.2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  44. 44. Gross Savings 15.8% 12.2% 15.7% 18.9% 23.7% 19.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  45. 45. Personal Remittances $0.0 $10,000.0 $20,000.0 $30,000.0 $40,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colom bia Chile M exico Peru $528.3 $3,213.6 $6,761.9 $70.0 $39,021.8 $3,326.0 Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  46. 46. Total Reserves $44,880.6 $356,886.4 $52,652.7 $40,655.5 $183,056.1 $67,711.5 $0.0 $50,000.0 $100,000.0 $150,000.0 $200,000.0 $250,000.0 $300,000.0 $350,000.0 $400,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  47. 47. Revenue 10.9% 29.7% 17.2% 22.0% 16.5% 16.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
  48. 48. Government Expenditure on Education 5.5% 6.3% 4.5% 5.4% 4.5% 3.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  49. 49. Labor Force Source: The World Bank, 2020. 20,977.4 107,371.8 27,271.1 9,692.0 58,004.3 19,356.0 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Thousands
  50. 50. Labor Force (Female) 42.9% 43.6% 43.0% 42.3% 37.8% 45.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
  51. 51. Unemployment 10.4% 12.0% 9.7% 7.1% 3.7% 3.2% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
  52. 52. Energy Use Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015. 2,030 1,496 724 2,006 1,537 790 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
  53. 53. Renewable Electricity Output 28.1% 74.0% 68.2% 43.6% 15.4% 52.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015. Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
  54. 54. Population Living in Slums 14.7% 16.3% 27.8% 8.8% 16.0% 33.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of Urban Population
  55. 55. External Debt Stocks 64.6% 31.8% 44.2% 38.5% 29.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GNI
  56. 56. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio 13.5% 10.2% 17.0% 7.5% 11.0% 12.9% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  57. 57. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans 5.7% 3.1% 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  58. 58. Deposit Interest Rate 47.3% 5.4% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  59. 59. Lending Interest Rate 67.3% 37.5% 11.8% 4.2% 8.5% 17.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  60. 60. Listed Domestic Companies Source: The World Bank, 2019. 91 324 66 203 139 196 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Total
  61. 61. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies $39,393.54 $1,187,361.69 $132,040.28 $203,791.65 $413,618.82 $98,964.96 $0.0 $200,000.0 $400,000.0 $600,000.0 $800,000.0 $1,000,000.0 $1,200,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
  62. 62. Strength of Legal Rights Index Source: The World Bank, 2019. 2 2 11 4 10 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
  63. 63. Military Expenditure 1.9% 3.9% 11.0% 7.2% 2.0% 5.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
  64. 64. We care about your business priorities. Let’s talk! E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309 Skype: nuricua Twitter: @a_nuricumbo Office: Montes Urales 424 Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX Please visit our website

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