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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. December 2020.

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Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.

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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. December 2020.

  1. 1. LATIN AMERICA UPDATE December 2020 www.nuricumbo.com
  2. 2. TRENDS 2021
  3. 3. World Economy expected to shrink more than 4% in 2020
  4. 4. If strong anticyclical measures work, the world could see a recovery in 2021
  5. 5. Pandemic is having a significant impact on debt, specially in China and the Developed World
  6. 6. This translates into an increase in debt for private companies as well
  7. 7. Unemployment recorded one of the biggest and fastest hikes in history
  8. 8. Foreign Direct Investment will be impacted…
  9. 9. …with consequences in the short and mid-term
  10. 10. And Latin America is already feeling the pain
  11. 11. Risk-taking appetite trends downward
  12. 12. This will favor a low interest rate environment towards 2021
  13. 13. Bubbles in other assets may be in the making…
  14. 14. Stock market is looking more expensive in the U.S.
  15. 15. Medical treatments and infection mitigation will lead 2021 economic performance
  16. 16. WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  17. 17. WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL PROJECTS.  Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.  Teams of highly experienced consultants.  Our consultants have on average 20/25 years of professional experience.  Reduced learning curve / More productivity.  High degree of flexibility.  Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and Accounting.  Big Four / Big Consulting background. Who are we?
  18. 18.  Internal and External Audit.  Special reviews (financial, process, operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)  Financial Due Diligence for M&A.  Tax Compliance.  Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.  Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)  Interim Project Teams.  Specialized Training Programs.  Debt/Equity Solutions.  Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos). How do we help some of our clients?
  19. 19. “Armando is a much travelled accountant with international experience in commercial sector and proven language skills. Through working with a wide range of business and in many different countries he has developed the skill of analyzing how organizations operate in a wide variety of geographical locations and business environments and in the assessment of internal controls.” – Eduardo Mediavilla, Protiviti Spain “The firm’s international experience and knowledge of consulting methodology makes them a valuable asset to any company. I've worked with them during mandates in Germany and Canada, and I know they strive for on-time and quality deliverables.” – Victor Terreros, Senior Project Manager, Bell Canada “Nuricumbo has experienced professionals with a great can-do attitude and an ability to communicate effectively to reach set goals. My confidence in Armando's firm was demonstrated by hiring them for a complex project with implications in Mexico and The U.S., which was successfully delivered and at a very competitive cost.” – Henry Gonzalez, Senior Audit Manager, WPP “The Nuricumbo firm has been fundamental to finally establish solid and reliable finance business practices for our company in Mexico. Their vast international exposure to different types of companies translates into deep knowledge in corporate governance applicable to companies of any kind or size.” – Inaki Mazzaredo, VP Latam Georg Fischer Some testimonials
  20. 20. COMPANY PROFIT Interim Management in Mexico YOUR TRUSTED BUSINESS ADVISORS What can we bring to the table: - Consultants with more than 20 years of experience. - Fully bilingual. - Expert knowledge of business practices in the country. - Flexible business model. - Honest, independent and reliable. - We have all worked for multinationals operating in Latam. WE CAN PROVIDE EFFECTIVE AND EXPERIENCED INTERIM CONSULTANTS TO TACKLE SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL PROJECTS IN MEXICO. We can take over processes or business units and provide oversight on their performance while a permanent management solution is established. 2 0 We can provide CEO, CFO, CIO, or CHRO type of profiles. After a certain period of time, you can even hire our consultants, which results in a much more certain hiring decision.
  21. 21. COMPANY PROFIT Internal Audit Support 2 1 We can enhance your audit projects in Mexico, Latin America, or anywhere else. Talent Mobility Flexibility Capabilities Our consultants can travel in Mexico, in Latin America, or basically anywhere you need them. We have successfully delivered audit projects in many countries. We are particularly effective where English, Spanish or Portuguese is spoken. Worldwide Mobility We have a multidisciplinary approach, combining specialists in internal controls, forensics, IT, business intelligence, process automation and compliance. We have an internal quality function to ensure objectives are always met. The result is a powerful combination of skills that allows us to deliver extra value in each engagement. Special Audit Capabilities Talented Senior Consultants Maximum Flexibility Our talent is available under a very flexible model. We have delivered projects that have taken 1 day, 1 month or 1 year to complete. Our rates are the best in the market. We can manage co-sourcing or out- sourcing audit initiatives. And in Latin America, we have the local knowledge and insight. We have a solid base of senior audit consultants, all of them highly trained and with rich experience in multinational environments, ready to support your audit projects. Our objective: To work with the best internal audit departments around the world, to help their organizations to manage better the risks and opportunities of their global operations.
  22. 22. LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW
  23. 23. $5.50 $5.74 $5.33 $0.00 $1.50 $3.00 $4.50 $6.00 $7.50 September October November Brazil Exchange Rates $3,828.40 $3,891.00 $3,621.95 $0.00 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 $4,500.00 September October November Colombia $22.11 $21.19 $20.16 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 September October November Mexico $3.60 $3.62 $3.60 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 September October November Peru Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2020. *USD / PEN *USD / MXN *USD / CLP *USD / BRL *USD / COP $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 September October November Chile *USD / CLP $76.18 $78.32 $81.32 $0.00 $25.00 $50.00 $75.00 $100.00 September October November Argentina *USD / ARS
  24. 24. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2020. 40.70% 36.60% 37.20% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% August September October Argentina Inflation Rate 2.94% 3.89% 4.77% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% August September October Brazil 1.88% 1.97% 1.75% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% August September October Colombia 2.40% 3.10% 3.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% August September October Chile 4.05% 4.01% 4.09% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% August September October Mexico 1.82% 1.72% 2.14% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% September October November Peru
  25. 25. $41,132 $39,524 $38,622 $0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 September October November Argentina International Reserves $354,664 $356,092 $356,606 $0 $120,000 $240,000 $360,000 $480,000 August September October Brazil $57,185 $56,979 $56,919 $0 $18,000 $36,000 $54,000 $72,000 August September October Colombia $37,822 $38,260 $39,165 $0 $13,000 $26,000 $39,000 $52,000 September October November Chile $193,992 $194,351 $194,288 $0 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $240,000 September October November Mexico $72,354 $72,468 $71,723 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 September October November Peru *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2020.
  26. 26. 41,260.86 45,225.52 54,572.54 0 16,000 32,000 48,000 64,000 September October November Argentina Capital Markets 94,603.40 93,838.62 108,893.32 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 September October November Brazil 1,171.92 1,136.75 1,258.00 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 September October November Colombia 17,948.78 17,472.20 19,796.51 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 September October November Peru 37,458.69 36,987.86 41,778.87 0 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 September October November Mexico 3,637.30 3,539.92 4,032.87 0 1,200 2,400 3,600 4,800 September October November Chile *IPSA:IND *MEXBOL:IND *SPBLPGPT:IND *MERVAL:IND *IBOV:IND *COLCAP:IND Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2020.
  27. 27. Foreign Direct Investmet $11,517 $11,873 $6,663.00 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Argentina $68,885 $78,162 $73,504 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2017 2018 2019 Brazil $13,836 $11,535 $14,314 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 2017 2018 2019 Colombia $6,128 $7,323 $11,928 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Chile $33,030 $37,682 $29,360 $0 $12,000 $24,000 $36,000 $48,000 2017 2018 2019 Mexico $6,860 $6,488 $8,892 $0 $3,000 $6,000 $9,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
  28. 28. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC (September 10, 2020) Source: Fitch Ratings, 2020 Brazil BB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 18, 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 6, 2020) Chile A- With STABLE Outlook (October 15, 2020) Mexico BBB- With STABLE Outlook (November 11, 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (June 3, 2020)
  29. 29. Credit Ratings Argentina Ca With STABLE Outlook (September 28, 2020) Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2020. Brazil Ba2 With STABLE Outlook (May 15, 2020) Colombia Baa2 With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2019) Chile A1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (August 25, 2020) Mexico Baa1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (April 17, 2020) Peru A3 With STABLE Outlook (June 25, 2019)
  30. 30. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC+ With STABLE Outlook (September 7, 2020) Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2020. Brazil BB- With STABLE Outlook (April 6, 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (October 28, 2020) Chile A+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (April 27, 2020) Mexico BBB With NEGATIVE Outlook (March 26, 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (November 23, 2020)
  31. 31. Country Presidents Argentina President: Alberto Fernandez Birth: April 2, 1959 In Office Since: December 10, 2019 Political Party: Frente de Todos Brazil President: Jair Bolsonaro Birth: March 21, 1955 In Office Since: January 1, 2019 Political Party: PSL Colombia President: Ivan Duque Marquez Birth: August 1, 1976 In Office Since: August 7, 2018 Political Party: Centro Democratico Chile President: Sebastian Piñera E. Birth: December 1, 1949 In Office Since: March 11, 2018 Political Party: Independent Mexico President: Andres Manuel Lopez O. Birth: November 13, 1953 In Office Since: December 1, 2018 Political Party: Morena Peru President: Francisco Sagasti Birth: October 10, 1944 In Office Since: November 17, 2020 Political Party: Partido Morado
  32. 32. Land Area Source: The World Bank, 2018. 2,736,690 8,358,140 1,109,500 743,532 1,943,950 1,280,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kilometers
  33. 33. Ease of Doing Business Index 126 124 67 59 60 76 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
  34. 34. Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  35. 35. Total Population 44,938.7 211,049.5 50,339.4 18,952.0 127,575.5 32,510.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
  36. 36. Urban Population 92% 87% 81% 88% 80% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Population
  37. 37. Poverty Headcount Ratio 1.3% 4.4% 4.2% 0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018. Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
  38. 38. Exports of Goods and Services 17.3% 14.3% 15.9% 28.2% 39.1% 24.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  39. 39. Foreign Direct Investment - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 6,663 73,503 14,313 11,928 29,360 8,891 Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
  40. 40. Gross Domestic Product $449,663.5 $1,839,758.0 $323,802.8 $282,318.2 $1,258,286.7 $226,848.1 $0 $300,000 $600,000 $900,000 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,100,000 $2,400,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Millions, Current US$
  41. 41. GDP Per Capita $22,947.1 $15,258.9 $15,643.7 $25,155.0 $20,410.7 $13,380.4 $0.0 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 $15,000.0 $20,000.0 $25,000.0 $30,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
  42. 42. GDP Growth -2.2% 1.1% 3.3% 1.1% -0.1% 2.2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  43. 43. Gross Savings 16.7% 12.2% 15.5% 18.9% 22.9% 19.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  44. 44. Personal Remittances $0.0 $10,000.0 $20,000.0 $30,000.0 $40,000.0 $528.3 $3,213.6 $6,769.9 $70.0 $39,021.8 $3,326.0 Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  45. 45. Total Reserves $44,880.6 $356,886.4 $52,652.7 $40,655.5 $183,056.1 $67,711.5 $0.0 $50,000.0 $100,000.0 $150,000.0 $200,000.0 $250,000.0 $300,000.0 $350,000.0 $400,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  46. 46. Revenue 17.9% 29.1% 21.5% 22.0% 18.9% 19.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
  47. 47. Government Expenditure on Education 5.5% 6.3% 4.5% 5.4% 4.5% 3.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  48. 48. Labor Force Source: The World Bank, 2020. 20,977.4 107,371.8 27,271.1 9,692.0 58,004.3 19,356.0 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Thousands
  49. 49. Labor Force (Female) 42.9% 43.6% 43.0% 42.3% 37.8% 45.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
  50. 50. Unemployment 10.4% 12.0% 9.7% 7.1% 3.7% 3.2% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
  51. 51. Energy Use Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015. 2,030 1,496 724 2,006 1,537 790 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
  52. 52. Renewable Electricity Output 28.1% 74.0% 68.2% 43.6% 15.4% 52.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015. Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
  53. 53. Population Living in Slums 14.7% 16.3% 27.8% 8.8% 16.0% 33.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of Urban Population
  54. 54. External Debt Stocks 64.6% 31.8% 44.2% 38.5% 29.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GNI
  55. 55. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio 13.5% 10.2% 17.0% 7.5% 11.0% 12.9% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  56. 56. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans 5.7% 3.1% 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  57. 57. Deposit Interest Rate 47.3% 5.4% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  58. 58. Lending Interest Rate 67.3% 37.5% 11.8% 4.2% 8.5% 17.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  59. 59. Listed Domestic Companies Source: The World Bank, 2019. 91 324 66 203 139 196 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Total
  60. 60. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies $39,393.54 $1,187,361.69 $132,040.28 $203,791.65 $413,618.82 $98,964.96 $0.0 $200,000.0 $400,000.0 $600,000.0 $800,000.0 $1,000,000.0 $1,200,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
  61. 61. Strength of Legal Rights Index Source: The World Bank, 2019. 2 2 11 4 10 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
  62. 62. Military Expenditure 1.9% 3.9% 11.0% 7.2% 2.0% 5.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
  63. 63. WHAT WE THINK Winning an election does not resolve our problems The reinvention of big global cities North America: From shared prosperity to failed state Who will win the U.S. elections? Will we avoid another lost decade? Inequality is not a good business The Lebanese mirror Wirecard, external audit and the public interest OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Walter Buchanan: US Elections 2020 Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic Willingness to Pay & Value Stick James Francum – Perspective from Germany Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer Antonio Prida: Mediación Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19 OTHER Encuesta Resiliencia Económica: Octubre 2020 Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China Ranking Empresas Zombies Mexico: Q2 2020 Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 ¿Por qué medir la confianza económica? Perspectivas internacionales 2020 Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  64. 64. We care about your business priorities. Let’s talk! E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309 Skype: nuricua Twitter: @a_nuricumbo Office: Montes Urales 424 Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX Please visit our website

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