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Encuesta Global de Resiliencia de Negocios. Global Business Resilience Survey. Nuricumbo + Partners. Oct 2020

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COMPRENDER LA PROBLEMÁTICA DEL SECTOR EMPRESARIAL DENTRO Y FUERA DE MEXICO ANTE LA PANDEMIA COVID-19. IDENTIFICAR PRINCIPALES TENDENCIAS, ASÍ COMO RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES.

TO UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEMS OF THE BUSINESS SECTOR IN AND OUTSIDE MEXICO CAUSED BY THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. IDENTIFY THE MAIN TRENDS, RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES.

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Encuesta Global de Resiliencia de Negocios. Global Business Resilience Survey. Nuricumbo + Partners. Oct 2020

  1. 1. ENCUESTA GLOBAL DE RESILIENCIA DE NEGOCIOS BUSINESS RESILIENCE GLOBAL SURVEY OCTUBRE / OCTOBER 2020
  2. 2. ENCUESTA ELABORADA POR: EN ALIANZA CON:
  3. 3. OBJETIVO COMPRENDER LA PROBLEMÁTICA DEL SECTOR EMPRESARIAL DENTRO Y FUERA DE MÉXICO ANTE LA PANDEMIA COVID-19. IDENTIFICAR PRINCIPALES TENDENCIAS, ASÍ COMO RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES. NÚMERO DE EMPRESAS QUE CONTESTARON LA ENCUESTA 225 SEGMENTACIÓN POR TAMAÑO DE EMPRESA 64% PEQUEÑA 22% MEDIANA 14% GRANDE PERFIL DE LA ENCUESTA SURVEY PROFILE OBJECTIVE TO UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEMS OF THE BUSINESS SECTOR IN AND OUTSIDE MEXICO CAUSED BY THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. IDENTIFY THE MAIN TRENDS, RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES. NUMBER OF COMPANIES THAT RESPONDED THE SURVEY 225 SEGMENTATION BY COMPANY SIZE 64% SMALL 22% MEDIUM 14% LARGE
  4. 4. EN DÓNDE OPERAN LAS EMPRESAS QUE CONTESTARON LA ENCUESTA 18% NORTE, CENTRO Y SUDAMÉRICA 12% OPERACIONES GLOBALES 64% SOLO MÉXICO 2% EUROPA 2% ASIA 2% ÁFRICA SECTORES ECONÓMICOS 28% SERVICIOS PROFESIONALES 17% COMERCIO 9% FINANCIERO 9% MANUFACTURA 8% BIENES RAÍCES 6% TECNOLOGÍAS DE LA INFORMACIÓN 4% EDUCACIÓN 4% SALUD 4% ENERGÍA 3% TURISMO 1% AGRICULTURA 8% OTROS PERFIL DE LA ENCUESTA SURVEY PROFILE WHERE DO THE COMPANIES THAT RESPONDED OUR SURVEY OPERATE 18% AMERICAS 12% GLOBAL OPERATIONS 64% MEXICO ONLY 2% EUROPE 2% ASIA 2% AFRICA ECONOMIC SECTORS 28% PROFESSIONAL SERVICES 17% TRADE 9% FINANCIAL 9% MANUFACTURING 8% REAL ESTATE 6% INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 4% EDUCATION 4% HEALTH 4% ENERGY 3% TOURISM 1% AGRICULTURE 8% OTHER
  5. 5. RESULTADOS RESULTS
  6. 6. 1: ¿Cómo calificaría el entorno comercial ACTUAL en el que opera su empresa? 1: How would you rate the CURRENT business environment in which your company operates? 50% de las empresas encuestadas encuentran las condiciones ACTUALES de negocio como MALAS o MUY MALAS. Este indicador ha permanecido constante desde el mes de Julio, es decir, desde Julio a la mitad de las empresas encuestadas les está yendo mal. 50% of surveyed companies find the CURRENT business conditions as BAD or VERY BAD. This indicator has remained constant since July, that is, since July half of the companies surveyed have been reporting poor conditions.
  7. 7. 2: ¿Cómo calificaría el entorno de negocios PROSPECTIVO hacia los próximos seis a doce meses? 2: How would you rate the PROSPECTIVE business environment towards the next six to twelve months? 53% de las empresas encuestadas encuentran las condiciones de los PRÓXIMOS 6 a 12 MESES como MALAS o MUY MALAS. Este indicador empeoró, pasando de 47% en el mes anterior. 53% of surveyed companies find the conditions of the NEXT 6 TO 12 MONTHS as BAD or VERY BAD. This indicator worsened, moving from 47% in the previous month.
  8. 8. 3: En comparación con el MES ANTERIOR, la condición general de su empresa es: 3: Compared to the PREVIOUS MONTH, the overall condition of your company is: 36% de las empresas encuestadas reportan condiciones de negocio PEORES que el mes anterior. Este indicador empeoró, pasando de 29% en el mes anterior. 36% of surveyed companies report WORSE business conditions than the previous month. This indicator worsened, moving from 29% in the previous month. 28% de las empresas encuestadas reportan condiciones de negocio MEJORES que el mes anterior. Este indicador empeoró, pasando de 32% en el mes anterior. 28% of surveyed companies report BETTER business conditions than the previous month. This indicator worsened, moving from 32% in the previous month.
  9. 9. 4: ¿Cuál es el MAYOR RETO para su empresa en los próximos seis a doce meses? 4: What is the BIGGEST CHALLENGE for your company in the next six to twelve months? Tres principales riesgos reportados por las empresas encuestadas: • Falta de demanda • Falta de liquidez • Falta de rentabilidad Three main risks reported by surveyed companies: • Lack of liquidity • Lack of demand • Lack of profitability
  10. 10. 5: ¿Cuál es la MAYOR OPORTUNIDAD para su empresa en los próximos seis a doce meses? 5: What is the BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY for your company in the next six to twelve months? Tres principales oportunidades reportadas por las empresas encuestadas: • Nuevos Mercados / Nuevos Productos • Menor Competencia a Causa de la Crisis • Trabajo Remote / Home Office Three main opportunities reported by surveyed companies: • New Markets / New Products • Less Competition Due to the Crisis • Remote Work / Home Office
  11. 11. 6: ¿Qué tan probable es que su compañía considere ADQUIRIR un negocio o entrar en una ALIANZA ESTRATÉGICA en los próximos seis a doce meses? 6: How likely is that your company will consider ACQUIRING a business or entering into a JOINT VENTURE in the next six to twelve months? 34% de las empresas encuestadas reportan que SÍ ESPERAN ENTRAR en alguna transacción de M&A o Joint Venture en los próximos 6 a 12 meses. Este indicador permaneció casi igual, pasando de 35% en el mes anterior. 34% of surveyed companies report that they DO EXPECT TO ENTER into some M&A or Joint Venture transaction in the next 6 to 12 months. This indicator remained virtually unchanged, moving from 35% in the previous month.
  12. 12. 7: ¿Cuánto tiempo cree que pasará hasta que regresemos a la normalidad? 7: How much time do you think will pass until we go BACK TO NORMAL? 49% de las empresas encuestadas piensan que el regreso a la normalidad tardará ENTRE UNO Y DOS AÑOS. 22% de las empresas encuestadas piensan que el regreso a la normalidad tardará MÁS DE DOS AÑOS. Este indicador se duplicó, pasando de 11% en el mes anterior, lo cual indica una pérdida de confianza. 49% of surveyed companies think that the return to normality will take BETWEEN ONE AND TWO YEARS. 22% of the companies surveyed think that the return to normality will take MORE THAN TWO YEARS. This indicator doubled, moving from 11% in the previous month, which indicates a loss of confidence.
  13. 13. 8: ¿Cómo calificaría la gestión de esta crisis por parte de sus OFICIALES GUBERNAMENTALES? (Promedie su respuesta para considerar niveles federales, estatales y municipales) 8: How would you rate the management of this crisis by your ELECTED GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS? (Average your answer to consider federal, state and municipal levels) 88% de las empresas encuestadas piensan que el desempeño de las autoridades federales, estatales y municipales ha sido MALO o MUY MALO. Este indicador no ha bajado de 85% desde que iniciamos la encuesta en el mes de mayo. 88% of surveyed companies think that the performance of federal, state and municipal authorities has been BAD or VERY BAD. This indicator has not dropped below 85% since we started the survey in May.
  14. 14. 9: ¿Qué posibilidades hay de que su empresa no cumpla con algunas obligaciones contractuales en el futuro cercano debido a la crisis pandémica (por ejemplo, no pague el alquiler, no pague un préstamo o no entregue ciertos productos o servicios)? 9: How likely is it that your company will fail to comply with some contractual obligations in the near future because of the pandemic crisis (for example, miss a rent payment, default on a loan, or fail to deliver certain products or services)? 44% de las empresas encuestadas estiman caer en incumplimiento de obligaciones contractuales debido a la pandemia. Este indicador lleva tres meses de incremento, pasando de 26% en Agosto. 44% of surveyed companies estimate that they will breach some contractual obligations due to the pandemic. This indicator has been increasing for three months, moving from 26% in August.
  15. 15. Las empresas encuestadas ven muchos más riesgos que oportunidades actualmente: RIESGOS • CARTERA VENCIDA • MENOR FLUJO DE EFECTIVO • DESCONFIANZA EN POLÍTICAS PÚBLICAS • FRACASO POR DEMAGOGIA • VOLATILIDAD ELECCIONES EN EEUU • DESEMPLEO A CAUSA DE LA CRISIS • POCOS NUEVOS PROYECTOS • REVERSA A REFORMA ENERGÉTICA • INCREMENTO EN CASOS DE COVID • CORRUPCIÓN • DEBILITAMIENTO DEL ESTADO DE DERECHO • POCA O NULA INVERSIÓN PRIVADA OPORTUNIDADES • INNOVACION • ECONOMÍA DE ENTREGA A DOMICILIO • MEJORES PRECIOS DE ALGUNOS COMMODITIES PRINCIPALES RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES MAIN RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES The surveyed companies see far more risks than opportunities today: RISKS • PAST DUE PORTFOLIO • LOWER CASH FLOW • DISTRUST IN PUBLIC POLICIES • FAILURE OF DEMAGOGIC POLICIES • ELECTION VOLATILITY IN THE U.S. • UNEMPLOYMENT DUE TO THE CRISIS • FEW NEW PROJECTS • REVERSAL OF ENERGY REFORM • INCREASE IN COVID CASES • CORRUPTION • WEAKENING OF THE RULE OF LAW • LITTLE OR NO PRIVATE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • INNOVATION • AT-HOME ECONOMY • BETTER PRICES OF SOME COMMODITIES
  16. 16. NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  17. 17. COMPANY PROFIT Our Firm at a glance Key Facts Industries • 50 CONSULTANTS • MULTIDISCIPLINARY • BIG 4 BACKGROUND • INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE • EXPERTS IN LATAM • WILLING TO TRAVEL • FLEXIBILITY • BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL Professional Organizations Our Service Portfolio • MANUFACTURING • FINANCIAL SERVICES • PROFESSIONAL SERVICES • TRADING • RETAIL • ADVERTISING • EDUCATION • PRIVATE EQUITY • FAMILY BUSINESS • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS • MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES • ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE • EXTERNAL AUDIT • INTERNAL AUDIT • PART TIME CFO’S • INTERIM MANAGEMENT • FORENSIC • TAX • TRANSFORMATIONS • ADVISORY BOARD For more information: www.nuricumbo.com EY PWC. BBVA / BANAMEX ZIMAT CIT METLIFE LESAFFRE KPMG DELOITTE. INTERPUBLIC BOMBARDIER +GF+ GM KANDEO 1990 1995 2000 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 Formal launch as independent consultancy Professional Experience as Employees History Some of our interventions as Consultants
  18. 18. Managing Partner of Nuricumbo + Partners. His career started as Audit Manager with PWC Mexico. After a few years, he moved into the advertising industry where he held Internal Audit positions with Y&R and IPG, two international advertising groups, working in New York City for five years. He returned to Mexico as CFO for the New Business division of McCann Group Worldwide. Started his career as independent consultant delivering audit work for several multinationals in Latam and leading several fraud investigations in Mexico. Won a contract with Bombardier Transportation to work for three years in Canada and Europe on a financial transformation initiative. Worked with the American Consultancy RGP as their Country Manager. Today, Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, internal and external audit, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. Nuricumbo + Partners have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects. Armando has held different positions at the Mexican Institute of Public Accountants, including Vice President of the Business Sector, President of the International Affairs Committee, and Member of the Audit Quality Control Committee. He is member of Editorial Committees at Mundo Ejecutivo and AAPAUNAM. He is Treasurer and Board Member at the British Chamber of Commerce, as well as the Anglo-Mexican Foundation. He was President of the charity Amistad Británico-Mexicana. He is member of the Mexican Institute of Financial Executives. He has been Board Member or Comisario at many companies. His opinions have been referenced by El Financiero, Reforma and Canal 40. Armando graduated as a public accountant, Summa Cum Laude, from the National University of Mexico (UNAM). He is certified in Mexico by the Mexican Institute of Public Accountants and in the U.S. by the Illinois Accountancy Board. He has a Masters Degree in Asian Studies by the University of Tamkang in Taiwan. He recently completed the program “Leading Professional Service Firms” at Harvard Business School. Armando Nuricumbo Managing Partner
  19. 19. COMPANY PROFIT Armando NuricumboRodrigo Llanos Miguel Amador Guillermo Lagos Former CFO / AuditorFormer Investment Banking Former Controller / Auditor Former CEO Jesus Bush PWC. IPG. Bombardier. RGP. 25 years of experience. Valmex. Inverlat. Arka. 30 years of experience. Whirlpool. Banco Azteca. 30 years of experience. EY. Smurfit. Maxcom. Devlyn. 25 years of experience. 3M. Imperial Chemical. IMEF 30 years of experience. Some members of our consulting team Alejandro Rico Tax Advisor / Auditor KPMG. Confies. 25 years of experience. Jose Trevino Former NAFTA Negotiator Colmex. Comce. Cancham. 30 years of experience. Oscar Becerril Former Banker / Credit VP Scotiabank. Citi. Fonatur. 30 years of experience. Roberto Fernandez Former CIO AT&T Capital. CIT. Alta. 30 years of experience. Enrique Ugarte Former CEO ProMexico. CCE. Edomex. 30 years of experience. Former CIO Marisol Baca Former PMO CFE. BID. Real Financiera. 25 years of experience. José A. Ventura Former CFO / Auditor PWC. Truper. BristolMyers. 30 years of experience.
  20. 20. COMPANY PROFIT Internal Audit Support 2 0 We can enhance your audit projects in Mexico, Latin America, or anywhere else. Talent Mobility Flexibility Capabilities Our consultants can travel in Mexico, in Latin America, or basically anywhere you need them. We have successfully delivered audit projects in many countries. We are particularly effective where English, Spanish or Portuguese is spoken. Worldwide Mobility We have a multidisciplinary approach, combining specialists in internal controls, forensics, IT, business intelligence, process automation and compliance. We have an internal quality function to ensure objectives are always met. The result is a powerful combination of skills that allows us to deliver extra value in each engagement. Special Audit Capabilities Talented Senior Consultants Maximum Flexibility Our talent is available under a very flexible model. We have delivered projects that have taken 1 day, 1 month or 1 year to complete. Our rates are the best in the market. We can manage co-sourcing or out- sourcing audit initiatives. And in Latin America, we have the local knowledge and insight. We have a solid base of senior audit consultants, all of them highly trained and with rich experience in multinational environments, ready to support your audit projects. Our objective: To work with the best internal audit departments around the world, to help their organizations to manage better the risks and opportunities of their global operations.
  21. 21. WHAT WE THINK Fear and Euphoria The Lebanese Mirror How is a pension system like a dinosaur? Zombieland Welcome USMCA. Now what? The New Battlefield Reinvention Process The Double Valley of Death OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic Willingness to Pay & Value Stick James Francum – Perspective from Germany Juan Carlos García: Perspectivas 2020 Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer Antonio Prida: Mediación Max Zimmermann: Relación con Inversionistas Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19 OTHER Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 ¿Por qué medir la confianza económica? Interview with Ana Maria Salazar (ADN40) Entrevista con el Embajador de España en México Entrevista con Pedro Ferriz de Con – I Entrevista con Pedro Ferriz de Con - II Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  22. 22. Estamos a la orden para profundizar sobre cualquier aspecto relacionado con la encuesta. We are at your service in case you require more information about any aspect of the survey. contacto@nuricumbo.com Muchas gracias Thank you very much

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