Sinan Aral's talk on measuring influence given at Planning-ness 2012

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Influence Influence inMedia
Measuring in Social Social
Networks
(Media) Networks
@sinanaral
@sinanaral

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The Problem
Influence in Social Media
IndustrialNetworks
Strength Examples
@sinanaral
How to Mine An Influence Graph

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The Problem
Influence in Social Media
IndustrialNetworks
Strength Examples
@sinanaral
How to Mine An Influence Graph

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@sinanaral

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Checks every
37
minutes
@sinanaral

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Posts to
5x
daily
@sinanaral

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Reviews
on 4x
per
week
@sinanaral

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Updates every
1
hour
@sinanaral

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@sinanaral

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If we can understand
how behaviors spread…

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from person
to person
to person
to person

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we could promote

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condom use, exercise,
productivity, tolerance,
financial responsibility,
sustainability, economic
development…

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or contain

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smoking, dirty needle
sharing, fraud, default,
obesity, violence,
hatred, waste,
poverty…

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Influence in Social Media
Networks
@sinanaral

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The “Reflection Problem”
Human behaviors cluster in
network space and time…
but is this because of
peer influence or
alternate explanations?

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“Obesity is Contagious”
Christakis & Fowler (2007)

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Homophily
“Birds of a feather,
flock together”
Robert Burton (1577-1640)

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“(People) love those who
are like themselves”
Aristotle

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“Similarity begets
friendship”
Plato

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“Hanging out with a bad
crowd will get you into
trouble”
Sinan’s Mom

30. “Everything is Contagious”
Alternative explanations:
 Reflection
 Homophily
 Confounding
“Loneliness is Contagious”

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The Problem
Influence in Social Media
IndustrialNetworks
Strength Examples
@sinanaral
How to Mine An Influence Graph

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The “iPad Effect”
16
P(Adoption | Friend Adopts)
14
12
INFLUENCE
10 Controlling for correlated preferences
and confounding effects
8
6
4
2
0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
DAYS SINCE LAUNCH

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“VIRAL DESIGN” Can we engineer products so
they are more likely to be virally shared?

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The Setup
App
 Randomly Enabled Viral Messaging.
 Observed the Adoption and Use of the App by Friends of
Control and Experimental Group Users.

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Flixster - An Example Facebook Application

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Flixster - An Example Facebook Application

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Users can invite their friends
to adopt the application and
join their social network on
the application itself.

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Users can invite friends to install this application and
include a personal message

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Which Features Spread Contagion Best?
Personal Passive
Invitations Awareness
Influence Per
Message
↑6% ↑2%
Global Diffusion ↑98% ↑246%
Stickiness ↑17% 0%

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49. @thesocialcure

50. @sinanaral
The Problem
Influence in Social Media
IndustrialNetworks
Strength Examples
@sinanaral
How to Mine An Influence Graph

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#planningness

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http://www.followthehashtag.com/

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#planningness 2012

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#planningness

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#planningness

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NodeXL
http://nodexl.codeplex.com
Gephi
https://gephi.org/

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NodeXL

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NodeXL

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Gephi

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Gephi

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Gephi

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Gephi

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Influence Influence inMedia
Measuring in Social Social
Networks
(Media) Networks
@sinanaral
@sinanaral