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Blockchain Economics
Building Societies of Trust
Melanie Swan
Philosophy, Purdue University
melanie@BlockchainStudies.org
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 1
Melanie Swan, Technology Theorist
 Philosophy and Economic Theory, Purdue
University, Indiana, USA
 Founder, Institute for Blockchain Studies
 Singularity University Instructor; Institute for Ethics and
Emerging Technology Affiliate Scholar; EDGE
Essayist; FQXi Advisor
Traditional Markets Background
Economics and Financial
Theory Leadership
New Economies research group
Source: http://www.melanieswan.com, http://blockchainstudies.org/NSNE.pdf, http://blockchainstudies.org/Metaphilosophy_CFP.pdf
https://www.facebook.com/groups/NewEconomies
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain
2
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
 To inspire us to build
this vision of the
world
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Agenda
 Blockchain Economics
 Blockchain Basics
 ICOnomics
 Tokens
 Sample Apps
 Blockchain Economic Theory
 Future: smart Network Convergence
 Blockchain and Deep Learning
3
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Economics
 New economic model emerging in the blockchain
economy with distinguishing aspects
 Open platform business model (network effect valuations)
 Token system for monetary transfer
 Initial Coin Offerings as financing mechanism
 Large-scale global participative communities
 Economics: study of resource discovery and
propagation to fulfill needs (supply and demand)
1. Classical Economics (material goods)
2. Network Economics (digital goods)
3. Blockchain Economics (cryptographic assets, smart
contracts, and DApps/DACs)
4
DApp: decentralized application; DAC: decentralized autonomous corporation
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Open Platform Economics business model
 M&A 10x return VC exit model gives
way to open platform for value creation
 Past: proprietary database and network
 Goal: maximize users and content
generation on proprietary platform; monetize
by selling information
 Examples: Facebook, Instagram, Netflix
 Future: open platform
 Goal: maximize user participation and return
rewards to participants
 Royalty payments for software, content use
 Beneficial network effects without monopolist
market power inefficiencies
5
Source: https://medium.com/mit-cryptoeconomics-lab/the-blockchain-effect-86bd01006ec2
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Economics books
6
2015 2016
2017
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Network Economics: Metcalfe’s Law
 The effect of a network is
proportional to the square of the
number of connected users (n2)
 Two telephones can make only one
connection
 Five can make 10 connections
 Twelve can make 66 connections
 Bootstrapping effect threshold
7
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Economic Wealth
 Adam Smith (1776)
 Invisible hand automatically
regulates markets
 John Stuart Mill (1848)
 A society’s wealth is its
productive capacity, not its
specie capital reserves
(mercantilist debate)
8
Sources: Adam Smith, 1776, Wealth of Nations; John Stuart Mill, 1848, Principles of Political Economy
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
MV=PQ
 Hume (1748): quantity theory of
money
 Quantity = GDP
 The general price level of goods
and services is directly proportional
to the amount of money in
circulation, or money supply
 Money Supply x velocity of turnover
= Price x Quantity of goods/services
bought/sold
9
Source: David Hume, 1748, Of Interest, in Essays Moral and Political
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Examples of MV=PQ
10
Fed
Country X (Brasil)
Cryptocurrency X
USD
Real
TitanCoin
 Fed adjusts M per V and PQ
 V of M1 = 5.5-6x/yr
 ~$5000 per person of USD currency circulating
 Lower velocity = contraction (less transactions), but
raising M can mean creating inflation (more money
chasing fewer goods)
MV=PQ
MV=PQ
MV=PQ
Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2014/01/24/FX_Market_Size.html
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Crypto asset valuation frameworks
11
Source: https://blockchainatberkeley.blog/todays-crypto-asset-valuation-frameworks-573a38eda27e
(Monetary Eqn
of Exchange)
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
1. Project Total Addressable Market (TAM)
 TAM for 2014 remittances was $436 billion
2. Estimate potential percent penetration of TAM
 10% (Bitcoin’s blockchain could transact 10% of the market)
 10% x $436 billion = $43.6 billion market
3. Project coin velocity: 1.5 times per year
 The “same bitcoin” could be used multiple times in the
transmission of value for remittances
 $43.6B / 1.5 = $30 billion value bitcoin would need to store
4. Calculate coin valuation
 14.7 million coins outstanding
 $30B / 14.7M = $2,000 per bitcoin
12
Oversimplified: not all btc spent on remittances
Source: https://medium.com/@cburniske/cryptoasset-valuations-ac83479ffca7
Bitcoin Valuation example (C. Burniske)
$30 bn x 1.5=$43.6 bn
Mx1.5=$43.6 bn
MV=$43.6 bn
M=$30 bn
$30 bn M / 14.7 m
coins = $2,000 per coin
MV=PQ
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Bitcoin Valuation example (C. Burniske)
13
Source: https://medium.com/@cburniske/cryptoasset-valuations-ac83479ffca7
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Programmable Risk
Black Swan Smart Contracts
 Financial options (put/call) used to
control/manufacture exposure
 Convexity (Fig. 1): control down-side
risk, upside gain, anti-fragile (robust)
 Concavity: undesirable risk profile
 Taleb: map event probabilities as
s-curve (Fig. 2) in medicine, etc.
 Convex-linear-concave profile
 Use programmable risk dropdown
feature of smart contracts to
manage risk in more domains
14
Sources: Swan, M. Submitted. Programmable Risk: Black Swan Smart Contracts, IEEE;
Taleb, Medicine: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1208/1208.1189.pdf
Figure 1
Figure 2
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
adoption.
15
57% global corporations (Juniper).
$2.1 billion 2018 global spend (IDC).
$325 billion USD asset class.
1551 cryptocurrencies.
1206 token projects.
Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/31/blockchain-technology-considered-by-57-percent-of-big-corporations-study.html,
https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/, https://www.stateofthedapps.com/,
https://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2018/02/06/business-interest-in-blockchain-picks-up-while-cryptocurrency-causes-conniptions/
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 16
Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109
 Blockchain business networks
 Single shared business processes
 Multiple private views
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
business networks.
17
digitized assets.
instantaneous transactability.
shared business processes.
the world is your VPN
Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 18
real-time balance sheets.
off-balance sheet obligations
disappear.
diminished risk.
Source: http://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/?p=21755
rethink risk.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 19
 HFT = program trading,
automated execution
1. Higher volume since 2008
 Institutional investor volume
fixed (3-4 bn shares/day)
 Total volume: 2x higher
 50-70% total volume = HFT
2. Higher volatility
3. Tighter bid-ask spreads
4. Greater price efficiency
(no price gaps)
HFT (high-frequency trading)
Sources: Chaparro, F. 2017. Credit Suisse: Here's how high-frequency trading has changed the stock market. Business
Insider. https://speedtrader.com/how-algorithms-and-high-frequency-trading-programs-affect-your-trading/
https://snipethetrade.com/us/high-frequency-trading
US Equity markets
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 20
net settlement.
payment channels.
digital credit systems.
Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109
rethink debt.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Payment Channels
21
Source: https://www.investinblockchain.com/lightning-network-bitcoin-scaling/
SBUX Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash $1.2bn
Liabilities
Stored Value
Cards $1.2bn
 Levels
 Unilateral
 Bilateral (pictured)
 Community
 Multi-party
 Multi-resource
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
basics.
22
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 23
Conceptual Definition:
Blockchain is a software protocol;
just as SMTP is a protocol for
sending email, blockchain is a
protocol for sending money
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
What is Blockchain/Distributed Ledger Tech?
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 24
Technical Definition:
Blockchain is the tamper-resistant
distributed ledger software underlying
cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, for
recording and transferring data and assets
such as financial transactions and real
estate titles, via the Internet without needing
a third-party intermediary
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
What is Blockchain/Distributed Ledger Tech?
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 25
Distributed Ledger (general form of DLT):
(1) shared transaction database among network
members, (2) updated by consensus, (3) records
timestamped with a unique cryptographic signature,
(4) in a tamper-proof auditable history all transactions
Distributed Ledger Technology vs. Blockchain
Blockchain (specific DLT w additional feature):
(5) Sequential updating of database records per
chained cryptographic hash-linked blocks
Source: restatement of https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/cloud/library/cl-blockchain-basics-intro-bluemix-trs/index.html
Ledger: a file that keeps track of who owns what
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
internet content.
26
information.
email.
voice.
video.
money.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 27
Internet
Blockchain
Bitcoin
Application
Protocol
Infrastructure
SMTP
Email
VoIP
Phone
calls
What is Blockchain?
Blockchain technology is a software; a protocol for the secure
transfer of unique instances of value (e.g. money, property,
contracts, and identity credentials) via the internet without
requiring a third-party intermediary such as a bank or government
(examples: Email over IP, Voice over IP, Money over IP)
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
networks.
28
value (money).
intelligence (brains).
information.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
smart networks.
29
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
blockchain.
30
software.
secure cryptographic transfer.
internet.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
killer apps.
31
secure transfer of value, of…
money & securities.
property.
contracts.
identity credentials.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
computer science
problems solved. 32
(1) double-spending.
(2) Byzantine Fault Tolerance
(agreement in a distributed
network).
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
ledger.
33
 A ledger is like a database, a
Google or Excel spreadsheet
 Add new records by appending rows
 Each row contains information
 Account balances
 Property, who owns certain assets
 Contracts
 Memory and execution state of a
computer program
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
How does Bitcoin work?
Use eWallet app to submit transaction
34
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5JGQXCTe3c
Scan recipient’s address
and submit transaction
$ appears in recipient’s eWallet
Wallet has keys not money
Creates PKI Signature address pairs A new PKI signature for each transaction
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
P2P network confirms & records transaction
35
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5JGQXCTe3c
Transaction computationally confirmed
Ledger account balances updated
Peer nodes maintain distributed ledger
Transactions submitted to a pool and miners assemble
new batch (block) of transactions each 10 min
Each block includes a cryptographic hash of the last
block, chaining the blocks, hence “Blockchain”
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
mining.
Source: https://www.illumina.com/science/technology/next-generation-sequencing.html
36
Proof of Work: secure but expensive.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
What is Bitcoin mining?
37
 Mining: accounting function to record tx, fee-
based (12.5 btc x $8400 = $105,000/block)
 Mining ASICs “find new blocks” (proof of work)
 Network regularly issues random 32-bit nonces
(numbers) per specified cryptographic parameters
 Mining software constantly makes nonce guesses
 At the rate of 2^32 (4 billion) hashes (guesses)/second
 One machine at random guesses the 32-bit nonce
 Winning machine confirms and records the
transactions, and collects the rewards
 All nodes confirm the transactions and append the
new block to their copy of the distributed ledger
 “Wasteful” effort deters malicious players
Sample
code:
Run the software yourself:
Fast because ASICs
represent the hashing
algorithm as hardware
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
ICOnomics.
38
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
In the news: Blockchain ICOnomics
39
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-bitcoin-continues-to-be-on-the-top-of-its-game
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Evolution of financing models
40
Financing model: Pre-sell access to:
IPO
Crowdfunding
ICO
Equity ownership
Product
Platform
 ICO: fundraising method, more liquid than equity
 Conceived as project finance / capital-budgeting solution
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings)
 ICOs 4x size of VC funding 1H2017 (PitchBook)
 ICOs: $1.3 bn, VC funding: $358 mn
41
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker
Cumulative ICO Funding
2/3/14 - 2/28/18
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 42
Mar 2018
$8.84 bn total
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker
ICOnomics.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
High-profile ICOs
 Telegram $850 mn, 2018e
 Filecoin $186 mn, Aug 2017
 Registered (exempt) small offering CoinList (AngelList);
Reg D 506(c)
 Tezos $232 mn, Jul 2017
 Brave, BATs, $35 mn, 30 seconds
 Gnosis; $12.5 mn, Apr 2017
 Self-regulating mechanisms
 Known % of money supply in the ICO offering
 Risk: no standards
 Lock-up: No lock-up on ICO founders coins (usually 1
year IPO), could have time-lock-up
43
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
ICO Regulatory Stance
 US: investor protection; regulated (Jul 2017)
 ICOs and exchanges; what about smart contracts?
 ICOs vs token sales (network utility) vs crowdfunding
 Howey Test: is it a security?
1. Investment of money
2. Expectation of profits from the investment
3. The investment of money is in a common enterprise
4. Any profit comes from the efforts of a promoter or third party
 UK: caveat emptor; safer if regulated, not regulated
 China: banned, exchanges ordered to close (Sep 2017)
 Russia: regulation expected by end 2017 (Sep 2017)
 Gibraltar DLT Regulated Entities (to launch 2018)
44
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker, https://www.coindesk.com/china-outlaws-icos-financial-regulators-order-halt-token-
trading/
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Bigger context of Institutional Markets
 Global capital allocation to institutional
investment-class products
 Institutional exposure to cryptographic assets
 Current value: $125 billion
 Estimated value in 10 years: $2 trillion
 Market becoming more institutional
1. ICO and exchanges: regulated entities
2. Cryptocurrency option approval
3. Institutional exchanges handling large
customer orders ($20m+)
 Genesis Trading, Cumberland Mining,
Circle, Gemini Exchange, Project Omni
45
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/op-ed-blockchain-economy-ushering-new-world-economic-order,
https://www.coindesk.com/standpoint-founder-bitcoin-asset-class-will-grow-2-trillion-market/
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations (4/18)
46
Source: https://coinmarketcap.com, http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500; List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia
 S&P 500: $22.2 tn; US GDP $18.8 tn
 Crypto market cap: $256 bn (≃ top 50th of 200 countries)
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Cryptocurrency Options & Swaps
 NY-based LedgerX: CFTC-regulated Swap
Execution Facility (SEF) and Derivatives
Clearing Organization (DCO)
 Swap execution facility, clearing Bitcoin options
 Sep 2017 began providing physically-settled put and
call options and day-ahead swaps trading
 Private trading for large customers
 LedgerX options possibly to trade on the CBOE
 Significance: cryptocurrency exposure in an
institutional product, demand could be huge
47
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-24/bitcoin-options-to-become-available-in-fall-after-cftc-approval
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Cryptocurrency Futures
48
Source: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
tokens.
49
software.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 50
 Money: three functions
 Medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account
 Token: a more complicated and feature-rich form of
money, and a tool for enabling participants
 Programmable functions built into tokens: access, voting,
action-taking, fundraising, dividends, notification,
participation, liquidity (tradability, exchangeability)
 Tokenization: process of turning an asset, right, or
digital good into an interchangeable unit to power an
ecosystem
Tokenomics
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 51
participation.
voting.
choosing.
resource access.
tokens.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
participation.
52
Information
Internet:
1991-2005
static information
Social Internet:
2005-Present
engage with
content
Token Internet:
2016-Present
participate in the
community economy
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 53
 Token types
 CarbonCoin: staked coin, proof of sequestering
units of CO2 (measured by IoTa chain + CPE)
Tokenomics
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 54
 Co-working 1 Token = 1 Seat
Tokenomics
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 55
 Example: LTB Coin (Let’s Talk Bitcoin coin)
 Facilitates the economic system of this media
property and podcast network
 Economic inflows and outflows, sources and uses of
capital, are denominated in the community token
 Providing listener rewards
 Accepting advertising revenue
 Pricing premium services
 Bug bounties
 Royalty payments to musicians
 MyNeighborhoodBabysittingToken might be just as
viable as MyWorkplacePaymentToken
Tokenomics
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
cryptokitties.
56
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
smart contracts.
57
Launched: Nov 2017
500,000 sold, total: $40 mn
Source: http://fortune.com/2018/02/13/cryptokitties-ethereum-ios-launch-china-ether
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
cats lead tech.
58
Source: https://www.wired.com/2012/06/google-x-neural-network/
Google Artificial Brain 2012
Supervised Learning
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
network futures.
59
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
peer-hosted.
Source: https://bitnodes.21.co
60
Bitcoin: 11,108 nodes.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
peer-hosted.
Source: https://www.ethernodes.org/network/1
61
Ethereum: 15,619 nodes.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 62
public chains. private chains.
trustless. mined.
p2p software.
trusted. not-mined.
enterprise software.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
store money.
63
old model.
networks.
banks.
new model.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
toast.
64
https://www.coindesk.com/jpmorgan-says-it-may-have-to-adapt-to-counter-crypto-adoption
“…financial institutions…face the risk that
payment processing and other services could
be disrupted by technologies such as
cryptocurrencies that require no intermediation”
Annual 10K, Mar 2018
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
power of the press.
65
old model.
networks.
newspapers.
new model.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
power of the wallet.
66
old model.
peer networks.
banks.
new model.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Distributed Networks
67
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
Decentralized
(based on hubs)
Centralized Distributed
(based on peers)
 Radical implication: every node is a peer who can
provide services to other peers
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
P2P Network Nodes provide services
68
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
Centralized bank tracks
payments between clients
“Classic”
Banking
Peer
Banking
 Nodes deliver services to others, for a small fee
 Transaction ledger hosting (~11,000 Bitcoind nodes)
 Transaction confirmation and logging (mining)
 News services (“decentralized Reddit”: Steemit, Yours)
 Banking services (payment channels (netting offsets))
Network nodes store transaction
record settled by many individuals
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
cryptocitizen.
69
“One ought to think autonomously,
free of the dictates of external
authority” - Immanuel Kant
“Multiple private currencies should
compete for customer business”
- Friedrich Hayek
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
economic theory.
70
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
What is Economics?
 Study of the production, distribution, and
consumption of goods and services
 Individual and group decision-making about
goods and services and the consequences
 Fundamental dynamics do not change
 Wants are bigger than resources, cost of
decision-making, opportunity cost, scarcity
(material or intangible)
 Same in all forms of economies
 Classical Economics (material goods)
 Network Economics (digital goods)
 Blockchain Economics (automated smart
contracts exchanging cryptographic assets)
71
Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Economics: Basic Design Principles
72
Economic Principles
 Traditional Deployment
 Markets
 Blockchain Deployment
 Any interaction is a discovery
and exchange process
 Abundance mindset and
overcoming scarcity
 Decentralized models
supplement hierarchy
 Demurrage incitatory potential
and resource redistribution
across network nodes
 Reciprocal mining communities
Blockchain technology is
prompting us to rethink
economic principles in markets,
and apply them much more
extensibly to other situations in
a non-monetary sense
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Reinventing Economics and Government
73
 Traditional physical goods
markets, big box retailers
 80/20 rule (Pareto distribution)
 Stock 20% of the items that comprise
80% of sales)
Source: Anderson; Brynjolfsson et al., 2006, 2010
Long Tail Effect
2006
 Digital markets: Long Tail
 70/30 not 80/20 (power laws not Pareto distributions)
 Amazon: niche books account for 36.7% of sales
 Power laws not Pareto distributions in etailing (books,
music), software downloads (70/30 not 80/20)
 Look at the long tail as a market itself: sell less
quantity of more items
 Key point: personalized markets work
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Complexity Economics
74
 Power laws not Pareto (normal) distributions
imply a different economic model
Source: https://www.coursera.org/learn/network-biology/lecture/gUKhL/small-world-and-scale-free-networks
 Random Networks
 Normal distribution
 Scale-free and
Small-World
Networks
 Power law
distribution
 Low number of hops
to reach any node
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Long Tail Financial & Government Services
 One size does not fit all
 Any two parties can meet and transact on a blockchain
75
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
One size
fits all
Personalized
Long Tail Systems
 Long Tail financial services
 “Amazon or eBay of money”
 Personalized banking, credit,
mortgages, securities
 Long Tail governance services
 “Amazon or eBay of government”
 Personalized governance
services, pay for consumption
Rethink debt with
small-chunk capital
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
inclusion.
76
banking & credit.
land registry.
identity.
electricity.
vaccines & medicine.
Source: https://www.unicef.org.au/blog/unicef-in-action/april-2017/photos-vaccines-reach-most-remote-places-earth
Digital health wallet
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Financial Inclusion
 Blockchain: leapfrog technology
 2 billion under-banked
 70% lack access to land registries
 Need decentralized networks
because hierarchy does not scale
 Does not make sense to build out
brick-and-mortar bank branches and
medical clinics to every last mile in a
world of digital services
 Like cell phones, digital solutions
could be the answer
 eWallets and deep learning
diagnostic apps for global inclusion
77
Source: Pricewaterhouse Coopers. 2016. The un(der)banked is FinTech's largest opportunity. DeNovo Q2 2016 FinTech ReCap
and Funding ReView., Heider, Caroline, and Connelly, April. 2016. Why Land Administration Matters for Development. World Bank.
http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/blog/why-land-administration-matters-development
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Monetary Economics and Financial Economics
78
Cryptocurrencies:
Spot Market
Smart Contracts:
Futures & Options
Market
 Systems for organizing access to resources
Economics FinancePast, Present Future
Time
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Hayek: Financial Institution Currencies
79
“Multiple private currencies should
compete for customer business”
- Friedrich Hayek
Source: Hayek, F. The De Nationalization of Money. 1976. (paraphrased); https://www.statista.com/topics/1552/banks-in-china
Tier 1 Capital: equity capital + disclosed reserves (measure of banking strength)
Top Global Banks based on Tier 1 Capital (2014) Top Investment Banks
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
New Economic World Order
80
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/op-ed-blockchain-economy-ushering-new-world-economic-order
 Not just cryptofinance, every company own coin issue
 Cryptocurrencies and storage, banking, healthcare, financial
services, technology platforms, fundraising firms
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Securities as a Service
81
Source: Blockchain Fintech: Programmable Risk and Securities as a Service,
http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2016/10/blockchain-fintech-programmable-risk.html
CD, DVD
Streaming Music and
Video Services
Entertainment as
a Service
Asset
Service
Auto, Home
Uber, Lyft, Gett, Juno,
Via; Airbnb, VRBO
HomeAway
Transportation,
Domicile as a Service
Securities
Securities as
a Service
 Securities a Service
 Now have to own because uncertain future value of assets
 Access to the consumable benefits of the asset without owning
 Works if trust consumable assets will have future availability
 Need the cash flow the asset provides, not the asset itself
Consumable benefits of
securities: cash flow,
appreciation
Payments as
a Service
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Future of Institutions
82
Historical Contemporary Future
Church Crown
DMV
Law
Bank Government Police
Healthcare Academia
Corporation Church
Data pillars: library of all
society’s memory and
public records
Building - Website
Columbus’s VCs: Ferdinand
and Isabella
Building – Website – CredentialBuilding
Farther Future
 Role: organize life and manage contention
 Influence persists but more choice about belonging
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Future of Nation States
 Regulatory Arbitrage and
Crypto-Specialization
 DE-based C corporations
 Swiss & Cayman banking laws
 Estonia eResidency Program
 Gibraltar DLT Registered Entities
(ICO response)
 Malta online casinos & Bitcoin
 Transnational boundaries
 ICANN & decentralized DNS/ENS
 Namecoin (.bit domains)
 Ether (.eth domains)
 Human Rights, Refugees
83
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 84
net neutrality.
censorship-resistance.
self-governance.
political.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
government as service
provider.
85
old model.
eResidency.
Exclusivity: One default
economic and political
sovereign birth regime.
new model.
Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
Plurality: Plug and play
economic and political
services regimes.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Economic Theory
 Production, distribution, and consumption of goods
and services in a Blockchain Economy…
 Same as a Classical Economy
 Underlying dynamics do not change: wants outweigh
resources, cost to decisions, scarcity of valued resources
 Institutions, Money, Nation States persist, change in form
 Assets, identity, & information now become cryptographic
 Different than a Classical Economy
 Hybrid economy of human and computational agents
 Leapfrog technology: financial inclusion and rethink debt
 New economic design principles: long tail, decentralization,
assets as a service, smart contracts
86
Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Economic Theory
87
Elements of Economic Theory Not
Changing
Changing
Basic Definition
Production, distribution, consumption of goods and services X
Individual and group decision-making and consequences X
Wants exceed resources, opportunity cost, scarcity X
Shift: material goods to intangible goods and services X
Employment
Technological Unemployment (Automation Economy) X
Multi-Agent Economy (Computational Agents) X
Institutions and Nation States
Role and Influence X
Form and Choice about Joining X
Money, Capital, and Debt
Importance and Role X
Form and Access X
Principles
Long Tail Markets (Personalized Services) X
Decentralization/Financial Inclusion X
Drivers: Regulation and Technology Adoption X
Time Frame Focus: Present to Future X
Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
sample apps.
88
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 89
peer-to-peer clearing in
financial services.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 90
food supply chain
contamination.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 91
vaccine cold
storage tracking.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 92
QR code resumes.
MIT Digital Certificates (diplomas); Criminal Records
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 93
vehicle information chains.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 94
blockchains in space.
Jan. 13, 2018 - NASA has awarded a grant to the University of Akron for
research into data analysis and other topics related to space exploration.
The allocation will help a team led by associate professor Jin Wei to
pioneer a resilient networking system based in part on the Ethereum
blockchain
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
future.
95
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Why is blockchain DLT needed?
Larger Scale Tiers of Projects
 The reason blockchain is needed is to work on the next
larger slate of challenges
 Key features: secure value transfer, automation, trackability
96
Previous Projects
Current Projects
Next Projects
Railroads, steam
engines, interstate roads
Energy farms, global
comms. networks
Medicine, Energy,
Risk, Poverty
Telegraph
Internet
Blockchain
Kardashev
scaling
Key Enabling Technology
Deep Learning Chains
Future Projects
Space settlement
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
future-class tech.
97
blockchain networks are a
new class of global
computational infrastructure.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
smart networks.
98
 Future of AI: intelligence “baked in” to smart networks
 Blockchains to confirm authenticity and transfer value
 Deep Learning algorithms for predictive identification
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
deep learning
chains. 99
 Autonomous Driving & Drone
Delivery, Social Robotics
 Deep Learning (CNNs): identify
what things are
 Blockchain: secure automation
technology
 Track arbitrarily-many units,
audit, upgrade
 Legal liability, accountability,
remuneration
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
fleet management.
100
secure automated
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
scale.
101
Source: https://www.illumina.com/science/technology/next-generation-sequencing.html
Population:
7.5 bn people worldwide
big health data.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
data.
102
big data ≠ smart data.
clean, standardized,
interoperable.
Source: http://www.oyster-ims.com/media/resources/dealing-information-growth-dark-data-six-practical-steps
40 EB 2020e
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
blocktime.
103
own time regime.
speed-ups.
multiplicity.
synchronization.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
collaboration.
104
human-machine
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Technological Unemployment
 Challenge: facilitate an orderly transition to
Automation Economy
 Half (47%) of employment is at risk of automation in the
next two decades – Carl Frey, Oxford, 2015
 Why are there still so many jobs in a world that could be
automating more quickly? – David Autor, MIT, 2015
105
Source: Swan, M. (2017). Is Technological Unemployment Real? Abundance Economics. In Surviving the Machine Age: Intelligent
Technology and the Transformation of Human Work. Hughes & LaGrandeur, Eds. London: Palgrave Macmillan. 19-33.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
risks.
tech: scalability.
political: regulation.
social: adoption.
Rapid
Adoption
Unfavorable
Regulation
Favorable
Regulation
Slow
Adoption
Future Scenarios
106
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Scalability Risk: attain Visa-class processing
Bitcoin vs. other payment networks
107
Source: Statista / Coinmetrics, http://www.altcointoday.com/bitcoin-ethereum-vs-visa-paypal-transactions-per-second
1,667
7
Average daily transaction volume ($US mn)
Average
transaction
volume per
second
 Visa: 2,000 transactions/sec; Bitcoin: 7/sec
 Visa: $18bn/day; Bitcoin: $300mn/day
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
future.
108
Source: http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170313-the-biggest-energy-challenges-facing-humanity
space.
energy (1 mn terajoules/day global consumption).
autonomous driving.
cellular genomics.
blockchain needed as secure automation
technology for next-generation projects
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Agenda
 Introduction
 Technical Overview
 Blockchain ICOs
 Blockchain Economic Theory
 Why do we need Blockchain?
 Smart Network Convergence
 Blockchain and Deep Learning
109
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Strategies
Opportunity: Low-hanging Fruit
 Information confirmation, not
monetary transfer:
1. Cryptographic asset registries
2. Investor information services
3. Supply chain, logistics
4. CRM, Business Logic
5. Energy quoting, transmission
 Automate administrative steps
110
Stock Transaction
Real Estate Purchase/Sale
Health Insurance Billing
Steps that can be automated with blockchain
Steps with human decision-making
Energy Contract
Supply Chain Shipment
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Strategies
Opportunity: Cryptographic Registries
 Asset Registries
 Land, auto, home titles
 Stocks, bonds, insurance
 Sales quotes, RFP
 Public Documents
 Driver’s license, permit
 Business registration
 Regulatory & QA compliance
 Diploma, credential
 Passport, identity document
 Voter registration, census
 Birth and death certificates
111
Illinois,
Arizona,
Delaware,
Idaho
Finland,
Dubai,
Georgia,
Estonia,
Sweden,
Denmark
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Strategies
Opportunity: Leadership Edge
 Start or join industry consortium
 Implement digital ledgers
 Automate transfer of money, assets, bids,
quotes, RFPs, ERP, supply chain
 Value chain process mapping
 Revenue-generating
 Offer blockchain-based services to clients
 Example: banks targeting larger customer base
through blockchain-based eWallet solutions
 Cost-saving
 Finance, treasury, accounting, GL/AR/AP
 Quality assurance, regulation, compliance,
audit functions
112
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Research Agenda
113
Source: https://www.census.gov/fsrdc
 Federal Research Data Centers
 Big data analytics, AI, deep learning, blockchain
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Research Agenda – Higher Ed
 Using blockchain technologies in research (scientific
and humanities fields)
 Emerging research disciplines: data science institutes,
cybersecurity, blockchain, AI/Machine Learning , digital
humanities, computational social science
 Research on blockchain technology as a research
topic (users, methods, use cases for blockchain
technology)
 Using blockchain technologies to modernize
publishing, citations, digital artifact creation
 Using blockchain technologies in higher education for digital
diplomas, credentials, transcripts; admissions applications
114
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Research Agenda: gamification example
115
Source: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/7bcf/9f783ca25f5e7f8ae2cabf18ba3d18c3762e.pdf
 Defining academic vs industry research
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Economics
 New economic model emerging in the blockchain
economy with distinguishing aspects
 Open platform business model
 Token system for monetary transfer
 Initial Coin Offerings as financing mechanism
 Large-scale global participative communities
 Economics: study of resource discovery and
propagation to fulfill needs (supply and demand)
1. Classical Economics (material goods)
2. Network Economics (digital goods)
3. Blockchain Economics (cryptographic assets, smart
contracts, and DApps/DACs)
116
DApp: decentralized application; DAC: decentralized autonomous corporation
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Conclusion
 Blockchain is a fundamental
information technology for secure
value transfer over networks
 For any asset registered in a
cryptographic ledger, the Internet is
a VPN for its confirmation, surety,
and transfer
 Reinvent economics and
government for the digital age
 Long tail structure of digital networks
allows personalized services
117
Personalized
Long Tail Systems
One size
fits all
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Conclusion (continued)
 A technology like blockchain is
needed for next-generation
challenges
 Financial inclusion, big health data,
global energy markets, and space
 Smart networks: a new form of
automated global infrastructure
 Identify (deep learning)
 Validate, confirm, and route
transactions (blockchain)
118
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
collaboration. 119
blockchainstudies.org
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
collaboration. 120
blockchainstudies.slack.com
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
collaboration.
121
Felix M. and Daniel K. present token heat map project,
Nairobi Kenya Mar 2018
Fullerton CA, April 16, 2018
Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga
Blockchain Economics
Melanie Swan
Philosophy, Purdue University
melanie@BlockchainStudies.org
Blockchain Economics
Building Societies of Trust
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Great Pools of Capital
123
Source: https://www.investinblockchain.com/lightning-network-bitcoin-scaling/
SBUX Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash $1.2bn
Liabilities
Stored Value
Cards $1.2bn
 Levels
 Unilateral
 Bilateral (pictured)
 Community
 Multi-party
 Multi-resource
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Global FX market
124
 $5.3 trillion daily market
 Ripple: Payments as a Service
Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2014/01/24/FX_Market_Size.html
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 125
Conceptual Definition:
Blockchain is the tamper-resistant
distributed ledger software underlying
cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, for the
secure transfer of money, assets, and
information via the Internet without a third-
party intermediary
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
What is a Blockchain/Distributed Ledger?
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 126
Distributed ledgers are a new form of
distributed software architecture where
agreements on the ‘shared state’ of
decentralized and transactional data can be
established in a network of untrusted and
anonymous participants holding a replica of
the data which is ‘append-only’ updated in
chronological order through one-way hash
function encryption
Technical Definition
What is a Distributed Ledger?
Source: Paolo Tasca, Executive Director, Centre for Blockchain Technologies, University College London
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 127
 Each transaction or event, before permanently recorded
in the ledger, is verified by a group of participants under
a pre-specified set of consensus rules
 Once entered, information can never be erased as a
result of the timestamp included in it
 The ledger contains all the transaction history and each
transaction is tamper-proof, publicly or privately
auditable (traceable) and no-reversible
 Thus a distributed ledger is a ‘trust machine’ with which
people can share value, such as currency, directly and
securely without any intermediary
Technical Definition (continued)
What is a Distributed Ledger?
Source: Paolo Tasca, Executive Director, Centre for Blockchain Technologies, University College London
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
What is a Ledger?
 A file keeping track of who owns what
 Double-entry bookkeeping
 Korea Goryeo dynasty (918-1392)
 Republic of Genoa (1340)
128
Marco
Polo
Kublai
Khan
Cash $100 $100
Assets $50 $50
Kublai Khan sells Marco
Polo $10 assets
Cash $90 $110
Assets $60 $40
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
History of Ledgers
129
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/information/what-is-a-distributed-ledger
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 130
A blockchain is a type of distributed ledger
technology in which confirmed and validated
batches of transactions are held in blocks,
and the blocks are linked (chained) in a
tamper-resistant append-only chain which
starts with a genesis block and where each
block contains a hash of the prior block in
the chain
Technical Definition
What is a Blockchain?
Source: Paolo Tasca, Executive Director, Centre for Blockchain Technologies, University College London
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Why is it called blockchain?
Ledger (chain) of sequential transaction blocks
 Each new block starts by calling the last block, so a
cryptographic chain of transactions is created
 Every 10 minutes, the latest block of submitted
transactions is validated (by cryptographic mining) and
posted to a single distributed ledger
131
Source: Satoshi Nakamoto whitepaper: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf, https://blockexplorer.com
Block 10 Block 11 Block 12
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Agenda
 Distributed Ledger Applications
132
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 133
 Secure information exchange
 Asset confirmation and transfer
 Automated coordination
 Example: fleet management of drones,
autonomous driving, robotics, clinical trial
patients, cellular therapeutics
 Blockchain: automated, secure
coordination system with remuneration
and tracking
Key blockchain functionality
Source: Swan, M. Philosophy of Social Robotics: Abundance Economics. Sociorobotics, 2016.
http://www.melanieswan.com/documents/SocialRobotics.pdf.
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Financial Services
 Shared ledger
 Instantaneous transaction
validation (t=0, not t+3)
 Settlement, clearing,
 Custody, insurance
 Secure, lower risk, cheaper
 Financial assurity
 Securities asset registries
 Automated clearing
 Quoting, deal placement
 Billing, settlement
134
Source: https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/financial-services-corporate-blockchain-investments
Shared Ledger
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Supply Chain and Logistics
 $54 trillion global supply chain, $23
trillion tied up in receivables
 Sweetbridge Bridgecoin cryptocurrency
(US CFTC-compliant commodity)
 Tamper-proof record-keeping
 SKU chain PopCodes (proof of
provenance codes)
 Confirmation, notification, payment
 Register assets and inventory
 Assure provenance, custody
 Track quantity and transfer of assets
(pallets, trailers, containers) moving
through supply chain nodes
135
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Energy
 Blockchain energy projects
 Enerchain: trading (NE Europe)
 BTL Interbit blockchain energy
platform: trading (Vancouver CA)
 PONTON: DSO, TSO, aggregator,
generation power-balancing (Austria)
 Automatic markets
 “Energy Internet” - smart buildings
on regional energy smartgrids
 Smart resource self-pricing
 Load-balancing
 Source fungibility: wind, solar power
 Energy price and trade validation
136
Sources: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079334-blockchain-based-microgrid-gives-power-to-consumers-in-new-york,
https://enerchain.ponton.de/index.php/16-gridchain-blockchain-based-process-integration-for-the-smart-grids-of-the-future
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
 EMR (electronic medical record)
 Personal health records
 Users key-permission doctors to records
 Digital health wallet
 Identity + EMR + health insurance + payment
 Health insurance billing chains
 Automated claims processing
 Price-quoting for medical services
 Health Data Research Commons
 Biobanks, QS (DNA.bits), genome files
137
Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.fr/2014/09/blockchain-health-remunerative-health.html
Healthcare
Digital health wallet
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Politics: governance services
138
 Blockchain weddings (Bitcoin, Ethereum)
 Public document registries
 Titling Registries
 Local government RFPs for home, auto, land
 Legal services: register and attest
 Contracts, IP, agreements, wills registries
 Proof of Existence: hash + timestamp + blockchain record
 Voting
 Quadratic voting (interest), PageRank (relevance)
 Delegative democracy, random sample elections
 Opt-in personalized governance services
 Composting vs education
Sources: http://merkle.com/papers/DAOdemocracyDraft.pdf, http://www.proofofexistence.com/, https://bitnation.co/ , World’s First
Blockchain Marriage: David Mondrus and Joyce Bayo, 10/5/14, ConsenSys wedding : Kim Jackson and Zach LeBeau, 11/2/15
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Humanitarian
 Refugee identity system
 Phone access: smartphone eWallet, SMS
 Object access: card, paper wallet, pendant,
ring, keychain, tattoo, implantable chip
 Biometric access: word phrase, fingerprint,
iris, facial scan
 Financial inclusion, access to learning
 Smart contracts for literacy
 Bitcoin MOOCs “Kiva for literacy”
 Open-source FICO scores
 Decentralized credit bureaus
 Remittance, blockchain-tracked aid
139
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
The Farther Future
Swan’s Theory of Computation
140
Newton
(1687)
Difference Engine
(1786)
Transistor
(1947)
 Basic physics discovery drives computation paradigms
 Gravity: emergent space, time, geometry & dynamics
Quantum Mechanics
(1905)
Quantum Gravity
(2016)
??
(2075e)
Planck scale
(1×10−35)
Atomic scale
(1×10−9)
Classical scale
(1×101)
Scale Physics Discovery Computation Device
Quantum Computing
Source: “There’s plenty of room at the bottom” – Feynman; the other bottom, the Planck scale
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Agenda
 Smart Network Convergence
 Blockchain and Deep Learning
141
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 142
Better horse AND new car
New Technology
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 143
Smart networks are computing networks with
intelligence built in such that identification
and transfer is performed by the network
itself through protocols that automatically
identify (deep learning), and validate,
confirm, and route transactions (blockchain)
within the network
Smart Network Convergence Theory
Source: Swan, M. & de Filippi, P. (2017). Introduction, In Toward a Philosophy of Blockchain. Swan, M. & de Filippi, P., Eds.
Metaphilosophy. New York: Wiley & Sons. 48(5).
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Smart Network Convergence Theory
 Network intelligence “baked in” to smart networks
 Blockchains to transfer value, confirm authenticity
 Deep Learning algorithms for predictive identification
144
Source: Expanded from Mark Sigal, http://radar.oreilly.com/2011/10/post-pc-revolution.html
Two Fundamental Eras of Network Computing
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain 145
Conceptual Definition:
Deep learning is a computer program that can
identify what something is
Technical Definition:
Deep learning is a class of machine learning
algorithms in the form of a neural network that
uses a cascade of layers (tiers) of processing
units to extract features from data and make
predictive guesses about new data
Source: Swan, M., (2017)., Philosophy of Deep Learning, https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/deep-learning-explained
What is Deep Learning?
16 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Next Phase
 Put Deep Learning systems on the Internet
 Need blockchain registration, security, and audit tracking
 Immediate Application: Autonomous Driving
 Smart networks: deep learning + blockchain
 Deep Learning: identify what things are
 Blockchain: secure automation technology
 Track arbitrarily-many units, audit, upgrade
 Legal liability, accountability, remuneration
146

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Blockchain Economics

  • 1. Fullerton CA, April 16, 2018 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Blockchain Economics Building Societies of Trust Melanie Swan Philosophy, Purdue University melanie@BlockchainStudies.org
  • 2. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 1 Melanie Swan, Technology Theorist  Philosophy and Economic Theory, Purdue University, Indiana, USA  Founder, Institute for Blockchain Studies  Singularity University Instructor; Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technology Affiliate Scholar; EDGE Essayist; FQXi Advisor Traditional Markets Background Economics and Financial Theory Leadership New Economies research group Source: http://www.melanieswan.com, http://blockchainstudies.org/NSNE.pdf, http://blockchainstudies.org/Metaphilosophy_CFP.pdf https://www.facebook.com/groups/NewEconomies
  • 3. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Blockchain 2 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491  To inspire us to build this vision of the world
  • 4. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Agenda  Blockchain Economics  Blockchain Basics  ICOnomics  Tokens  Sample Apps  Blockchain Economic Theory  Future: smart Network Convergence  Blockchain and Deep Learning 3
  • 5. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Blockchain Economics  New economic model emerging in the blockchain economy with distinguishing aspects  Open platform business model (network effect valuations)  Token system for monetary transfer  Initial Coin Offerings as financing mechanism  Large-scale global participative communities  Economics: study of resource discovery and propagation to fulfill needs (supply and demand) 1. Classical Economics (material goods) 2. Network Economics (digital goods) 3. Blockchain Economics (cryptographic assets, smart contracts, and DApps/DACs) 4 DApp: decentralized application; DAC: decentralized autonomous corporation
  • 6. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Open Platform Economics business model  M&A 10x return VC exit model gives way to open platform for value creation  Past: proprietary database and network  Goal: maximize users and content generation on proprietary platform; monetize by selling information  Examples: Facebook, Instagram, Netflix  Future: open platform  Goal: maximize user participation and return rewards to participants  Royalty payments for software, content use  Beneficial network effects without monopolist market power inefficiencies 5 Source: https://medium.com/mit-cryptoeconomics-lab/the-blockchain-effect-86bd01006ec2
  • 7. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Blockchain Economics books 6 2015 2016 2017
  • 8. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Network Economics: Metcalfe’s Law  The effect of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users (n2)  Two telephones can make only one connection  Five can make 10 connections  Twelve can make 66 connections  Bootstrapping effect threshold 7
  • 9. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Economic Wealth  Adam Smith (1776)  Invisible hand automatically regulates markets  John Stuart Mill (1848)  A society’s wealth is its productive capacity, not its specie capital reserves (mercantilist debate) 8 Sources: Adam Smith, 1776, Wealth of Nations; John Stuart Mill, 1848, Principles of Political Economy
  • 10. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain MV=PQ  Hume (1748): quantity theory of money  Quantity = GDP  The general price level of goods and services is directly proportional to the amount of money in circulation, or money supply  Money Supply x velocity of turnover = Price x Quantity of goods/services bought/sold 9 Source: David Hume, 1748, Of Interest, in Essays Moral and Political
  • 11. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Examples of MV=PQ 10 Fed Country X (Brasil) Cryptocurrency X USD Real TitanCoin  Fed adjusts M per V and PQ  V of M1 = 5.5-6x/yr  ~$5000 per person of USD currency circulating  Lower velocity = contraction (less transactions), but raising M can mean creating inflation (more money chasing fewer goods) MV=PQ MV=PQ MV=PQ Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2014/01/24/FX_Market_Size.html
  • 12. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Crypto asset valuation frameworks 11 Source: https://blockchainatberkeley.blog/todays-crypto-asset-valuation-frameworks-573a38eda27e (Monetary Eqn of Exchange)
  • 13. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 1. Project Total Addressable Market (TAM)  TAM for 2014 remittances was $436 billion 2. Estimate potential percent penetration of TAM  10% (Bitcoin’s blockchain could transact 10% of the market)  10% x $436 billion = $43.6 billion market 3. Project coin velocity: 1.5 times per year  The “same bitcoin” could be used multiple times in the transmission of value for remittances  $43.6B / 1.5 = $30 billion value bitcoin would need to store 4. Calculate coin valuation  14.7 million coins outstanding  $30B / 14.7M = $2,000 per bitcoin 12 Oversimplified: not all btc spent on remittances Source: https://medium.com/@cburniske/cryptoasset-valuations-ac83479ffca7 Bitcoin Valuation example (C. Burniske) $30 bn x 1.5=$43.6 bn Mx1.5=$43.6 bn MV=$43.6 bn M=$30 bn $30 bn M / 14.7 m coins = $2,000 per coin MV=PQ
  • 14. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Bitcoin Valuation example (C. Burniske) 13 Source: https://medium.com/@cburniske/cryptoasset-valuations-ac83479ffca7
  • 15. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Programmable Risk Black Swan Smart Contracts  Financial options (put/call) used to control/manufacture exposure  Convexity (Fig. 1): control down-side risk, upside gain, anti-fragile (robust)  Concavity: undesirable risk profile  Taleb: map event probabilities as s-curve (Fig. 2) in medicine, etc.  Convex-linear-concave profile  Use programmable risk dropdown feature of smart contracts to manage risk in more domains 14 Sources: Swan, M. Submitted. Programmable Risk: Black Swan Smart Contracts, IEEE; Taleb, Medicine: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1208/1208.1189.pdf Figure 1 Figure 2
  • 16. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain adoption. 15 57% global corporations (Juniper). $2.1 billion 2018 global spend (IDC). $325 billion USD asset class. 1551 cryptocurrencies. 1206 token projects. Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/31/blockchain-technology-considered-by-57-percent-of-big-corporations-study.html, https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/, https://www.stateofthedapps.com/, https://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2018/02/06/business-interest-in-blockchain-picks-up-while-cryptocurrency-causes-conniptions/
  • 17. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 16 Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109  Blockchain business networks  Single shared business processes  Multiple private views
  • 18. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain business networks. 17 digitized assets. instantaneous transactability. shared business processes. the world is your VPN Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109
  • 19. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 18 real-time balance sheets. off-balance sheet obligations disappear. diminished risk. Source: http://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/?p=21755 rethink risk.
  • 20. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 19  HFT = program trading, automated execution 1. Higher volume since 2008  Institutional investor volume fixed (3-4 bn shares/day)  Total volume: 2x higher  50-70% total volume = HFT 2. Higher volatility 3. Tighter bid-ask spreads 4. Greater price efficiency (no price gaps) HFT (high-frequency trading) Sources: Chaparro, F. 2017. Credit Suisse: Here's how high-frequency trading has changed the stock market. Business Insider. https://speedtrader.com/how-algorithms-and-high-frequency-trading-programs-affect-your-trading/ https://snipethetrade.com/us/high-frequency-trading US Equity markets
  • 21. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 20 net settlement. payment channels. digital credit systems. Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109 rethink debt.
  • 22. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Payment Channels 21 Source: https://www.investinblockchain.com/lightning-network-bitcoin-scaling/ SBUX Balance Sheet Assets Cash $1.2bn Liabilities Stored Value Cards $1.2bn  Levels  Unilateral  Bilateral (pictured)  Community  Multi-party  Multi-resource
  • 24. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 23 Conceptual Definition: Blockchain is a software protocol; just as SMTP is a protocol for sending email, blockchain is a protocol for sending money Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 What is Blockchain/Distributed Ledger Tech?
  • 25. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 24 Technical Definition: Blockchain is the tamper-resistant distributed ledger software underlying cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, for recording and transferring data and assets such as financial transactions and real estate titles, via the Internet without needing a third-party intermediary Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 What is Blockchain/Distributed Ledger Tech?
  • 26. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 25 Distributed Ledger (general form of DLT): (1) shared transaction database among network members, (2) updated by consensus, (3) records timestamped with a unique cryptographic signature, (4) in a tamper-proof auditable history all transactions Distributed Ledger Technology vs. Blockchain Blockchain (specific DLT w additional feature): (5) Sequential updating of database records per chained cryptographic hash-linked blocks Source: restatement of https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/cloud/library/cl-blockchain-basics-intro-bluemix-trs/index.html Ledger: a file that keeps track of who owns what
  • 27. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain internet content. 26 information. email. voice. video. money.
  • 28. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 27 Internet Blockchain Bitcoin Application Protocol Infrastructure SMTP Email VoIP Phone calls What is Blockchain? Blockchain technology is a software; a protocol for the secure transfer of unique instances of value (e.g. money, property, contracts, and identity credentials) via the internet without requiring a third-party intermediary such as a bank or government (examples: Email over IP, Voice over IP, Money over IP)
  • 29. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain networks. 28 value (money). intelligence (brains). information.
  • 31. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain blockchain. 30 software. secure cryptographic transfer. internet.
  • 32. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain killer apps. 31 secure transfer of value, of… money & securities. property. contracts. identity credentials.
  • 33. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain computer science problems solved. 32 (1) double-spending. (2) Byzantine Fault Tolerance (agreement in a distributed network).
  • 34. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain ledger. 33  A ledger is like a database, a Google or Excel spreadsheet  Add new records by appending rows  Each row contains information  Account balances  Property, who owns certain assets  Contracts  Memory and execution state of a computer program
  • 35. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain How does Bitcoin work? Use eWallet app to submit transaction 34 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5JGQXCTe3c Scan recipient’s address and submit transaction $ appears in recipient’s eWallet Wallet has keys not money Creates PKI Signature address pairs A new PKI signature for each transaction
  • 36. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain P2P network confirms & records transaction 35 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5JGQXCTe3c Transaction computationally confirmed Ledger account balances updated Peer nodes maintain distributed ledger Transactions submitted to a pool and miners assemble new batch (block) of transactions each 10 min Each block includes a cryptographic hash of the last block, chaining the blocks, hence “Blockchain”
  • 37. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain mining. Source: https://www.illumina.com/science/technology/next-generation-sequencing.html 36 Proof of Work: secure but expensive.
  • 38. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain What is Bitcoin mining? 37  Mining: accounting function to record tx, fee- based (12.5 btc x $8400 = $105,000/block)  Mining ASICs “find new blocks” (proof of work)  Network regularly issues random 32-bit nonces (numbers) per specified cryptographic parameters  Mining software constantly makes nonce guesses  At the rate of 2^32 (4 billion) hashes (guesses)/second  One machine at random guesses the 32-bit nonce  Winning machine confirms and records the transactions, and collects the rewards  All nodes confirm the transactions and append the new block to their copy of the distributed ledger  “Wasteful” effort deters malicious players Sample code: Run the software yourself: Fast because ASICs represent the hashing algorithm as hardware
  • 40. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain In the news: Blockchain ICOnomics 39 Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-bitcoin-continues-to-be-on-the-top-of-its-game
  • 41. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Evolution of financing models 40 Financing model: Pre-sell access to: IPO Crowdfunding ICO Equity ownership Product Platform  ICO: fundraising method, more liquid than equity  Conceived as project finance / capital-budgeting solution
  • 42. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings)  ICOs 4x size of VC funding 1H2017 (PitchBook)  ICOs: $1.3 bn, VC funding: $358 mn 41 Source: https://www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker Cumulative ICO Funding 2/3/14 - 2/28/18
  • 43. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 42 Mar 2018 $8.84 bn total Source: https://www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker ICOnomics.
  • 44. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain High-profile ICOs  Telegram $850 mn, 2018e  Filecoin $186 mn, Aug 2017  Registered (exempt) small offering CoinList (AngelList); Reg D 506(c)  Tezos $232 mn, Jul 2017  Brave, BATs, $35 mn, 30 seconds  Gnosis; $12.5 mn, Apr 2017  Self-regulating mechanisms  Known % of money supply in the ICO offering  Risk: no standards  Lock-up: No lock-up on ICO founders coins (usually 1 year IPO), could have time-lock-up 43 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
  • 45. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain ICO Regulatory Stance  US: investor protection; regulated (Jul 2017)  ICOs and exchanges; what about smart contracts?  ICOs vs token sales (network utility) vs crowdfunding  Howey Test: is it a security? 1. Investment of money 2. Expectation of profits from the investment 3. The investment of money is in a common enterprise 4. Any profit comes from the efforts of a promoter or third party  UK: caveat emptor; safer if regulated, not regulated  China: banned, exchanges ordered to close (Sep 2017)  Russia: regulation expected by end 2017 (Sep 2017)  Gibraltar DLT Regulated Entities (to launch 2018) 44 Source: https://www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker, https://www.coindesk.com/china-outlaws-icos-financial-regulators-order-halt-token- trading/
  • 46. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Bigger context of Institutional Markets  Global capital allocation to institutional investment-class products  Institutional exposure to cryptographic assets  Current value: $125 billion  Estimated value in 10 years: $2 trillion  Market becoming more institutional 1. ICO and exchanges: regulated entities 2. Cryptocurrency option approval 3. Institutional exchanges handling large customer orders ($20m+)  Genesis Trading, Cumberland Mining, Circle, Gemini Exchange, Project Omni 45 Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/op-ed-blockchain-economy-ushering-new-world-economic-order, https://www.coindesk.com/standpoint-founder-bitcoin-asset-class-will-grow-2-trillion-market/
  • 47. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations (4/18) 46 Source: https://coinmarketcap.com, http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500; List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia  S&P 500: $22.2 tn; US GDP $18.8 tn  Crypto market cap: $256 bn (≃ top 50th of 200 countries)
  • 48. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Cryptocurrency Options & Swaps  NY-based LedgerX: CFTC-regulated Swap Execution Facility (SEF) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO)  Swap execution facility, clearing Bitcoin options  Sep 2017 began providing physically-settled put and call options and day-ahead swaps trading  Private trading for large customers  LedgerX options possibly to trade on the CBOE  Significance: cryptocurrency exposure in an institutional product, demand could be huge 47 Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-24/bitcoin-options-to-become-available-in-fall-after-cftc-approval
  • 49. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Cryptocurrency Futures 48 Source: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures
  • 51. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 50  Money: three functions  Medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account  Token: a more complicated and feature-rich form of money, and a tool for enabling participants  Programmable functions built into tokens: access, voting, action-taking, fundraising, dividends, notification, participation, liquidity (tradability, exchangeability)  Tokenization: process of turning an asset, right, or digital good into an interchangeable unit to power an ecosystem Tokenomics
  • 52. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 51 participation. voting. choosing. resource access. tokens.
  • 53. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain participation. 52 Information Internet: 1991-2005 static information Social Internet: 2005-Present engage with content Token Internet: 2016-Present participate in the community economy
  • 54. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 53  Token types  CarbonCoin: staked coin, proof of sequestering units of CO2 (measured by IoTa chain + CPE) Tokenomics
  • 55. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 54  Co-working 1 Token = 1 Seat Tokenomics
  • 56. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 55  Example: LTB Coin (Let’s Talk Bitcoin coin)  Facilitates the economic system of this media property and podcast network  Economic inflows and outflows, sources and uses of capital, are denominated in the community token  Providing listener rewards  Accepting advertising revenue  Pricing premium services  Bug bounties  Royalty payments to musicians  MyNeighborhoodBabysittingToken might be just as viable as MyWorkplacePaymentToken Tokenomics
  • 58. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain smart contracts. 57 Launched: Nov 2017 500,000 sold, total: $40 mn Source: http://fortune.com/2018/02/13/cryptokitties-ethereum-ios-launch-china-ether
  • 59. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain cats lead tech. 58 Source: https://www.wired.com/2012/06/google-x-neural-network/ Google Artificial Brain 2012 Supervised Learning
  • 61. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain peer-hosted. Source: https://bitnodes.21.co 60 Bitcoin: 11,108 nodes.
  • 62. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain peer-hosted. Source: https://www.ethernodes.org/network/1 61 Ethereum: 15,619 nodes.
  • 63. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 62 public chains. private chains. trustless. mined. p2p software. trusted. not-mined. enterprise software.
  • 64. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain store money. 63 old model. networks. banks. new model.
  • 65. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain toast. 64 https://www.coindesk.com/jpmorgan-says-it-may-have-to-adapt-to-counter-crypto-adoption “…financial institutions…face the risk that payment processing and other services could be disrupted by technologies such as cryptocurrencies that require no intermediation” Annual 10K, Mar 2018
  • 66. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain power of the press. 65 old model. networks. newspapers. new model.
  • 67. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain power of the wallet. 66 old model. peer networks. banks. new model.
  • 68. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Distributed Networks 67 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 Decentralized (based on hubs) Centralized Distributed (based on peers)  Radical implication: every node is a peer who can provide services to other peers
  • 69. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain P2P Network Nodes provide services 68 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 Centralized bank tracks payments between clients “Classic” Banking Peer Banking  Nodes deliver services to others, for a small fee  Transaction ledger hosting (~11,000 Bitcoind nodes)  Transaction confirmation and logging (mining)  News services (“decentralized Reddit”: Steemit, Yours)  Banking services (payment channels (netting offsets)) Network nodes store transaction record settled by many individuals
  • 70. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain cryptocitizen. 69 “One ought to think autonomously, free of the dictates of external authority” - Immanuel Kant “Multiple private currencies should compete for customer business” - Friedrich Hayek
  • 72. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain What is Economics?  Study of the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services  Individual and group decision-making about goods and services and the consequences  Fundamental dynamics do not change  Wants are bigger than resources, cost of decision-making, opportunity cost, scarcity (material or intangible)  Same in all forms of economies  Classical Economics (material goods)  Network Economics (digital goods)  Blockchain Economics (automated smart contracts exchanging cryptographic assets) 71 Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
  • 73. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Economics: Basic Design Principles 72 Economic Principles  Traditional Deployment  Markets  Blockchain Deployment  Any interaction is a discovery and exchange process  Abundance mindset and overcoming scarcity  Decentralized models supplement hierarchy  Demurrage incitatory potential and resource redistribution across network nodes  Reciprocal mining communities Blockchain technology is prompting us to rethink economic principles in markets, and apply them much more extensibly to other situations in a non-monetary sense
  • 74. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Reinventing Economics and Government 73  Traditional physical goods markets, big box retailers  80/20 rule (Pareto distribution)  Stock 20% of the items that comprise 80% of sales) Source: Anderson; Brynjolfsson et al., 2006, 2010 Long Tail Effect 2006  Digital markets: Long Tail  70/30 not 80/20 (power laws not Pareto distributions)  Amazon: niche books account for 36.7% of sales  Power laws not Pareto distributions in etailing (books, music), software downloads (70/30 not 80/20)  Look at the long tail as a market itself: sell less quantity of more items  Key point: personalized markets work
  • 75. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Complexity Economics 74  Power laws not Pareto (normal) distributions imply a different economic model Source: https://www.coursera.org/learn/network-biology/lecture/gUKhL/small-world-and-scale-free-networks  Random Networks  Normal distribution  Scale-free and Small-World Networks  Power law distribution  Low number of hops to reach any node
  • 76. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Long Tail Financial & Government Services  One size does not fit all  Any two parties can meet and transact on a blockchain 75 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 One size fits all Personalized Long Tail Systems  Long Tail financial services  “Amazon or eBay of money”  Personalized banking, credit, mortgages, securities  Long Tail governance services  “Amazon or eBay of government”  Personalized governance services, pay for consumption Rethink debt with small-chunk capital
  • 77. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain inclusion. 76 banking & credit. land registry. identity. electricity. vaccines & medicine. Source: https://www.unicef.org.au/blog/unicef-in-action/april-2017/photos-vaccines-reach-most-remote-places-earth Digital health wallet
  • 78. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Financial Inclusion  Blockchain: leapfrog technology  2 billion under-banked  70% lack access to land registries  Need decentralized networks because hierarchy does not scale  Does not make sense to build out brick-and-mortar bank branches and medical clinics to every last mile in a world of digital services  Like cell phones, digital solutions could be the answer  eWallets and deep learning diagnostic apps for global inclusion 77 Source: Pricewaterhouse Coopers. 2016. The un(der)banked is FinTech's largest opportunity. DeNovo Q2 2016 FinTech ReCap and Funding ReView., Heider, Caroline, and Connelly, April. 2016. Why Land Administration Matters for Development. World Bank. http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/blog/why-land-administration-matters-development
  • 79. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Monetary Economics and Financial Economics 78 Cryptocurrencies: Spot Market Smart Contracts: Futures & Options Market  Systems for organizing access to resources Economics FinancePast, Present Future Time
  • 80. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Hayek: Financial Institution Currencies 79 “Multiple private currencies should compete for customer business” - Friedrich Hayek Source: Hayek, F. The De Nationalization of Money. 1976. (paraphrased); https://www.statista.com/topics/1552/banks-in-china Tier 1 Capital: equity capital + disclosed reserves (measure of banking strength) Top Global Banks based on Tier 1 Capital (2014) Top Investment Banks
  • 81. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain New Economic World Order 80 Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/op-ed-blockchain-economy-ushering-new-world-economic-order  Not just cryptofinance, every company own coin issue  Cryptocurrencies and storage, banking, healthcare, financial services, technology platforms, fundraising firms
  • 82. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Securities as a Service 81 Source: Blockchain Fintech: Programmable Risk and Securities as a Service, http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2016/10/blockchain-fintech-programmable-risk.html CD, DVD Streaming Music and Video Services Entertainment as a Service Asset Service Auto, Home Uber, Lyft, Gett, Juno, Via; Airbnb, VRBO HomeAway Transportation, Domicile as a Service Securities Securities as a Service  Securities a Service  Now have to own because uncertain future value of assets  Access to the consumable benefits of the asset without owning  Works if trust consumable assets will have future availability  Need the cash flow the asset provides, not the asset itself Consumable benefits of securities: cash flow, appreciation Payments as a Service
  • 83. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Future of Institutions 82 Historical Contemporary Future Church Crown DMV Law Bank Government Police Healthcare Academia Corporation Church Data pillars: library of all society’s memory and public records Building - Website Columbus’s VCs: Ferdinand and Isabella Building – Website – CredentialBuilding Farther Future  Role: organize life and manage contention  Influence persists but more choice about belonging
  • 84. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Future of Nation States  Regulatory Arbitrage and Crypto-Specialization  DE-based C corporations  Swiss & Cayman banking laws  Estonia eResidency Program  Gibraltar DLT Registered Entities (ICO response)  Malta online casinos & Bitcoin  Transnational boundaries  ICANN & decentralized DNS/ENS  Namecoin (.bit domains)  Ether (.eth domains)  Human Rights, Refugees 83
  • 85. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 84 net neutrality. censorship-resistance. self-governance. political.
  • 86. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain government as service provider. 85 old model. eResidency. Exclusivity: One default economic and political sovereign birth regime. new model. Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf Plurality: Plug and play economic and political services regimes.
  • 87. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Blockchain Economic Theory  Production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services in a Blockchain Economy…  Same as a Classical Economy  Underlying dynamics do not change: wants outweigh resources, cost to decisions, scarcity of valued resources  Institutions, Money, Nation States persist, change in form  Assets, identity, & information now become cryptographic  Different than a Classical Economy  Hybrid economy of human and computational agents  Leapfrog technology: financial inclusion and rethink debt  New economic design principles: long tail, decentralization, assets as a service, smart contracts 86 Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
  • 88. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Blockchain Economic Theory 87 Elements of Economic Theory Not Changing Changing Basic Definition Production, distribution, consumption of goods and services X Individual and group decision-making and consequences X Wants exceed resources, opportunity cost, scarcity X Shift: material goods to intangible goods and services X Employment Technological Unemployment (Automation Economy) X Multi-Agent Economy (Computational Agents) X Institutions and Nation States Role and Influence X Form and Choice about Joining X Money, Capital, and Debt Importance and Role X Form and Access X Principles Long Tail Markets (Personalized Services) X Decentralization/Financial Inclusion X Drivers: Regulation and Technology Adoption X Time Frame Focus: Present to Future X Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
  • 90. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 89 peer-to-peer clearing in financial services.
  • 91. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 90 food supply chain contamination.
  • 92. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 91 vaccine cold storage tracking.
  • 93. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 92 QR code resumes. MIT Digital Certificates (diplomas); Criminal Records
  • 94. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 93 vehicle information chains.
  • 95. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 94 blockchains in space. Jan. 13, 2018 - NASA has awarded a grant to the University of Akron for research into data analysis and other topics related to space exploration. The allocation will help a team led by associate professor Jin Wei to pioneer a resilient networking system based in part on the Ethereum blockchain
  • 97. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Why is blockchain DLT needed? Larger Scale Tiers of Projects  The reason blockchain is needed is to work on the next larger slate of challenges  Key features: secure value transfer, automation, trackability 96 Previous Projects Current Projects Next Projects Railroads, steam engines, interstate roads Energy farms, global comms. networks Medicine, Energy, Risk, Poverty Telegraph Internet Blockchain Kardashev scaling Key Enabling Technology Deep Learning Chains Future Projects Space settlement
  • 98. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain future-class tech. 97 blockchain networks are a new class of global computational infrastructure.
  • 99. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain smart networks. 98  Future of AI: intelligence “baked in” to smart networks  Blockchains to confirm authenticity and transfer value  Deep Learning algorithms for predictive identification
  • 100. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain deep learning chains. 99  Autonomous Driving & Drone Delivery, Social Robotics  Deep Learning (CNNs): identify what things are  Blockchain: secure automation technology  Track arbitrarily-many units, audit, upgrade  Legal liability, accountability, remuneration
  • 101. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain fleet management. 100 secure automated
  • 102. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain scale. 101 Source: https://www.illumina.com/science/technology/next-generation-sequencing.html Population: 7.5 bn people worldwide big health data.
  • 103. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain data. 102 big data ≠ smart data. clean, standardized, interoperable. Source: http://www.oyster-ims.com/media/resources/dealing-information-growth-dark-data-six-practical-steps 40 EB 2020e
  • 104. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain blocktime. 103 own time regime. speed-ups. multiplicity. synchronization.
  • 106. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Technological Unemployment  Challenge: facilitate an orderly transition to Automation Economy  Half (47%) of employment is at risk of automation in the next two decades – Carl Frey, Oxford, 2015  Why are there still so many jobs in a world that could be automating more quickly? – David Autor, MIT, 2015 105 Source: Swan, M. (2017). Is Technological Unemployment Real? Abundance Economics. In Surviving the Machine Age: Intelligent Technology and the Transformation of Human Work. Hughes & LaGrandeur, Eds. London: Palgrave Macmillan. 19-33.
  • 107. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain risks. tech: scalability. political: regulation. social: adoption. Rapid Adoption Unfavorable Regulation Favorable Regulation Slow Adoption Future Scenarios 106
  • 108. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Scalability Risk: attain Visa-class processing Bitcoin vs. other payment networks 107 Source: Statista / Coinmetrics, http://www.altcointoday.com/bitcoin-ethereum-vs-visa-paypal-transactions-per-second 1,667 7 Average daily transaction volume ($US mn) Average transaction volume per second  Visa: 2,000 transactions/sec; Bitcoin: 7/sec  Visa: $18bn/day; Bitcoin: $300mn/day
  • 109. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain future. 108 Source: http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170313-the-biggest-energy-challenges-facing-humanity space. energy (1 mn terajoules/day global consumption). autonomous driving. cellular genomics. blockchain needed as secure automation technology for next-generation projects
  • 110. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Agenda  Introduction  Technical Overview  Blockchain ICOs  Blockchain Economic Theory  Why do we need Blockchain?  Smart Network Convergence  Blockchain and Deep Learning 109
  • 111. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Blockchain Strategies Opportunity: Low-hanging Fruit  Information confirmation, not monetary transfer: 1. Cryptographic asset registries 2. Investor information services 3. Supply chain, logistics 4. CRM, Business Logic 5. Energy quoting, transmission  Automate administrative steps 110 Stock Transaction Real Estate Purchase/Sale Health Insurance Billing Steps that can be automated with blockchain Steps with human decision-making Energy Contract Supply Chain Shipment
  • 112. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Blockchain Strategies Opportunity: Cryptographic Registries  Asset Registries  Land, auto, home titles  Stocks, bonds, insurance  Sales quotes, RFP  Public Documents  Driver’s license, permit  Business registration  Regulatory & QA compliance  Diploma, credential  Passport, identity document  Voter registration, census  Birth and death certificates 111 Illinois, Arizona, Delaware, Idaho Finland, Dubai, Georgia, Estonia, Sweden, Denmark
  • 113. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Blockchain Strategies Opportunity: Leadership Edge  Start or join industry consortium  Implement digital ledgers  Automate transfer of money, assets, bids, quotes, RFPs, ERP, supply chain  Value chain process mapping  Revenue-generating  Offer blockchain-based services to clients  Example: banks targeting larger customer base through blockchain-based eWallet solutions  Cost-saving  Finance, treasury, accounting, GL/AR/AP  Quality assurance, regulation, compliance, audit functions 112 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
  • 114. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Research Agenda 113 Source: https://www.census.gov/fsrdc  Federal Research Data Centers  Big data analytics, AI, deep learning, blockchain
  • 115. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Research Agenda – Higher Ed  Using blockchain technologies in research (scientific and humanities fields)  Emerging research disciplines: data science institutes, cybersecurity, blockchain, AI/Machine Learning , digital humanities, computational social science  Research on blockchain technology as a research topic (users, methods, use cases for blockchain technology)  Using blockchain technologies to modernize publishing, citations, digital artifact creation  Using blockchain technologies in higher education for digital diplomas, credentials, transcripts; admissions applications 114
  • 116. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Research Agenda: gamification example 115 Source: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/7bcf/9f783ca25f5e7f8ae2cabf18ba3d18c3762e.pdf  Defining academic vs industry research
  • 117. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Blockchain Economics  New economic model emerging in the blockchain economy with distinguishing aspects  Open platform business model  Token system for monetary transfer  Initial Coin Offerings as financing mechanism  Large-scale global participative communities  Economics: study of resource discovery and propagation to fulfill needs (supply and demand) 1. Classical Economics (material goods) 2. Network Economics (digital goods) 3. Blockchain Economics (cryptographic assets, smart contracts, and DApps/DACs) 116 DApp: decentralized application; DAC: decentralized autonomous corporation
  • 118. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Conclusion  Blockchain is a fundamental information technology for secure value transfer over networks  For any asset registered in a cryptographic ledger, the Internet is a VPN for its confirmation, surety, and transfer  Reinvent economics and government for the digital age  Long tail structure of digital networks allows personalized services 117 Personalized Long Tail Systems One size fits all
  • 119. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Conclusion (continued)  A technology like blockchain is needed for next-generation challenges  Financial inclusion, big health data, global energy markets, and space  Smart networks: a new form of automated global infrastructure  Identify (deep learning)  Validate, confirm, and route transactions (blockchain) 118
  • 120. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain collaboration. 119 blockchainstudies.org
  • 121. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain collaboration. 120 blockchainstudies.slack.com
  • 122. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain collaboration. 121 Felix M. and Daniel K. present token heat map project, Nairobi Kenya Mar 2018
  • 123. Fullerton CA, April 16, 2018 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Blockchain Economics Melanie Swan Philosophy, Purdue University melanie@BlockchainStudies.org Blockchain Economics Building Societies of Trust
  • 124. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Great Pools of Capital 123 Source: https://www.investinblockchain.com/lightning-network-bitcoin-scaling/ SBUX Balance Sheet Assets Cash $1.2bn Liabilities Stored Value Cards $1.2bn  Levels  Unilateral  Bilateral (pictured)  Community  Multi-party  Multi-resource
  • 125. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Global FX market 124  $5.3 trillion daily market  Ripple: Payments as a Service Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2014/01/24/FX_Market_Size.html
  • 126. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 125 Conceptual Definition: Blockchain is the tamper-resistant distributed ledger software underlying cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, for the secure transfer of money, assets, and information via the Internet without a third- party intermediary Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 What is a Blockchain/Distributed Ledger?
  • 127. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 126 Distributed ledgers are a new form of distributed software architecture where agreements on the ‘shared state’ of decentralized and transactional data can be established in a network of untrusted and anonymous participants holding a replica of the data which is ‘append-only’ updated in chronological order through one-way hash function encryption Technical Definition What is a Distributed Ledger? Source: Paolo Tasca, Executive Director, Centre for Blockchain Technologies, University College London
  • 128. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 127  Each transaction or event, before permanently recorded in the ledger, is verified by a group of participants under a pre-specified set of consensus rules  Once entered, information can never be erased as a result of the timestamp included in it  The ledger contains all the transaction history and each transaction is tamper-proof, publicly or privately auditable (traceable) and no-reversible  Thus a distributed ledger is a ‘trust machine’ with which people can share value, such as currency, directly and securely without any intermediary Technical Definition (continued) What is a Distributed Ledger? Source: Paolo Tasca, Executive Director, Centre for Blockchain Technologies, University College London
  • 129. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain What is a Ledger?  A file keeping track of who owns what  Double-entry bookkeeping  Korea Goryeo dynasty (918-1392)  Republic of Genoa (1340) 128 Marco Polo Kublai Khan Cash $100 $100 Assets $50 $50 Kublai Khan sells Marco Polo $10 assets Cash $90 $110 Assets $60 $40
  • 130. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain History of Ledgers 129 Source: https://www.coindesk.com/information/what-is-a-distributed-ledger
  • 131. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 130 A blockchain is a type of distributed ledger technology in which confirmed and validated batches of transactions are held in blocks, and the blocks are linked (chained) in a tamper-resistant append-only chain which starts with a genesis block and where each block contains a hash of the prior block in the chain Technical Definition What is a Blockchain? Source: Paolo Tasca, Executive Director, Centre for Blockchain Technologies, University College London
  • 132. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Why is it called blockchain? Ledger (chain) of sequential transaction blocks  Each new block starts by calling the last block, so a cryptographic chain of transactions is created  Every 10 minutes, the latest block of submitted transactions is validated (by cryptographic mining) and posted to a single distributed ledger 131 Source: Satoshi Nakamoto whitepaper: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf, https://blockexplorer.com Block 10 Block 11 Block 12
  • 133. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Agenda  Distributed Ledger Applications 132
  • 134. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 133  Secure information exchange  Asset confirmation and transfer  Automated coordination  Example: fleet management of drones, autonomous driving, robotics, clinical trial patients, cellular therapeutics  Blockchain: automated, secure coordination system with remuneration and tracking Key blockchain functionality Source: Swan, M. Philosophy of Social Robotics: Abundance Economics. Sociorobotics, 2016. http://www.melanieswan.com/documents/SocialRobotics.pdf.
  • 135. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Financial Services  Shared ledger  Instantaneous transaction validation (t=0, not t+3)  Settlement, clearing,  Custody, insurance  Secure, lower risk, cheaper  Financial assurity  Securities asset registries  Automated clearing  Quoting, deal placement  Billing, settlement 134 Source: https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/financial-services-corporate-blockchain-investments Shared Ledger
  • 136. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Supply Chain and Logistics  $54 trillion global supply chain, $23 trillion tied up in receivables  Sweetbridge Bridgecoin cryptocurrency (US CFTC-compliant commodity)  Tamper-proof record-keeping  SKU chain PopCodes (proof of provenance codes)  Confirmation, notification, payment  Register assets and inventory  Assure provenance, custody  Track quantity and transfer of assets (pallets, trailers, containers) moving through supply chain nodes 135
  • 137. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Energy  Blockchain energy projects  Enerchain: trading (NE Europe)  BTL Interbit blockchain energy platform: trading (Vancouver CA)  PONTON: DSO, TSO, aggregator, generation power-balancing (Austria)  Automatic markets  “Energy Internet” - smart buildings on regional energy smartgrids  Smart resource self-pricing  Load-balancing  Source fungibility: wind, solar power  Energy price and trade validation 136 Sources: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079334-blockchain-based-microgrid-gives-power-to-consumers-in-new-york, https://enerchain.ponton.de/index.php/16-gridchain-blockchain-based-process-integration-for-the-smart-grids-of-the-future
  • 138. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain  EMR (electronic medical record)  Personal health records  Users key-permission doctors to records  Digital health wallet  Identity + EMR + health insurance + payment  Health insurance billing chains  Automated claims processing  Price-quoting for medical services  Health Data Research Commons  Biobanks, QS (DNA.bits), genome files 137 Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.fr/2014/09/blockchain-health-remunerative-health.html Healthcare Digital health wallet
  • 139. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Politics: governance services 138  Blockchain weddings (Bitcoin, Ethereum)  Public document registries  Titling Registries  Local government RFPs for home, auto, land  Legal services: register and attest  Contracts, IP, agreements, wills registries  Proof of Existence: hash + timestamp + blockchain record  Voting  Quadratic voting (interest), PageRank (relevance)  Delegative democracy, random sample elections  Opt-in personalized governance services  Composting vs education Sources: http://merkle.com/papers/DAOdemocracyDraft.pdf, http://www.proofofexistence.com/, https://bitnation.co/ , World’s First Blockchain Marriage: David Mondrus and Joyce Bayo, 10/5/14, ConsenSys wedding : Kim Jackson and Zach LeBeau, 11/2/15
  • 140. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Humanitarian  Refugee identity system  Phone access: smartphone eWallet, SMS  Object access: card, paper wallet, pendant, ring, keychain, tattoo, implantable chip  Biometric access: word phrase, fingerprint, iris, facial scan  Financial inclusion, access to learning  Smart contracts for literacy  Bitcoin MOOCs “Kiva for literacy”  Open-source FICO scores  Decentralized credit bureaus  Remittance, blockchain-tracked aid 139
  • 141. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain The Farther Future Swan’s Theory of Computation 140 Newton (1687) Difference Engine (1786) Transistor (1947)  Basic physics discovery drives computation paradigms  Gravity: emergent space, time, geometry & dynamics Quantum Mechanics (1905) Quantum Gravity (2016) ?? (2075e) Planck scale (1×10−35) Atomic scale (1×10−9) Classical scale (1×101) Scale Physics Discovery Computation Device Quantum Computing Source: “There’s plenty of room at the bottom” – Feynman; the other bottom, the Planck scale
  • 142. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Agenda  Smart Network Convergence  Blockchain and Deep Learning 141
  • 143. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 142 Better horse AND new car New Technology
  • 144. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 143 Smart networks are computing networks with intelligence built in such that identification and transfer is performed by the network itself through protocols that automatically identify (deep learning), and validate, confirm, and route transactions (blockchain) within the network Smart Network Convergence Theory Source: Swan, M. & de Filippi, P. (2017). Introduction, In Toward a Philosophy of Blockchain. Swan, M. & de Filippi, P., Eds. Metaphilosophy. New York: Wiley & Sons. 48(5).
  • 145. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Smart Network Convergence Theory  Network intelligence “baked in” to smart networks  Blockchains to transfer value, confirm authenticity  Deep Learning algorithms for predictive identification 144 Source: Expanded from Mark Sigal, http://radar.oreilly.com/2011/10/post-pc-revolution.html Two Fundamental Eras of Network Computing
  • 146. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain 145 Conceptual Definition: Deep learning is a computer program that can identify what something is Technical Definition: Deep learning is a class of machine learning algorithms in the form of a neural network that uses a cascade of layers (tiers) of processing units to extract features from data and make predictive guesses about new data Source: Swan, M., (2017)., Philosophy of Deep Learning, https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/deep-learning-explained What is Deep Learning?
  • 147. 16 Apr 2018 Blockchain Next Phase  Put Deep Learning systems on the Internet  Need blockchain registration, security, and audit tracking  Immediate Application: Autonomous Driving  Smart networks: deep learning + blockchain  Deep Learning: identify what things are  Blockchain: secure automation technology  Track arbitrarily-many units, audit, upgrade  Legal liability, accountability, remuneration 146