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INDIA’S FUTURE Or prosperity will spread in India  but happiness will not, until we fix governance by Gurcharan Das November 12, 2009 WIPRO Marbella
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new It has been going on for 25 years
What is the India story?
28 years of  high growth 1.0 3.5 6.0 8.9 (%) Average annual GDP growth 0 2 4 6 8 10 1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007
Population growth is slowing  Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001)  1.0 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 (%) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1901-1950 1951-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
Literacy is rising Source: Census of India (2001) 17 52 65 80 (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj)
When middle class is 50% then the politics will also change Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002  65 220 368 8% 22% 32% 0 100 200 300 400 1980 2000 2010  (m)
Poverty is declining 46 26 16 1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 25 years  Equals ~ 200m (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 1980 2000 2010
Per capita income gains Source: World Bank US$ ppp 2005 3,051 1980 1,178
India is now the 4th largest economy ,[object Object]
The India model is unique
Drivers of growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Drivers of growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Drivers of growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Drivers of growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Implications of India model  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Implication of India model  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Implication of India model – Consumption led People Friendly: Consumption as % of GDP People Friendly, Less inequality:  Gini Index Will India become the next  big consuming economy after the U.S.? 41% 45% 59% U.S. China Brazil India 33% 58% 42% 64% Europe China India
Reasons for success India’s success is market-led  whereas China’s is state induced The entrepreneur is at the centre of the Indian model
Rise of globally competitive Indian companies
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Public space is a problem   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Governance Failures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ironically, we used to have world class institutions from 1950-1980, but our problem was growth. Now we have growth, but our institutions are failing  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The economy grows at night when the government is asleep
 
Key reforms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Understanding India’s economic success ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ By 2010 India will have world’s largest  number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a  certain way, that will be the way to speak it.” Professor David Crystal Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
Understanding India’s economic success ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where are we today? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where are we going? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Per capita income 2,100 3,050 5,800 16,800 37,000 On a ppp basis 2000 2005 2020 2040 2066 0 10 20 30 40 ($000)
Convergence in the 21st century ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India will gradually turn middle-class 50% 50% 8% 22% 32% West of the Kanpur- Chennai line East of the Kanpur- Chennai line Chennai Kanpur- 1980 2000 2010 2020 2040
What could stop the show? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Education System ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Caste system ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Role of Religion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],85% Hindu 12% Muslim 2% Sikh 1% Christian
Elephant and not Tiger ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Wise Elephant

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Indias Future

  • 1. INDIA’S FUTURE Or prosperity will spread in India but happiness will not, until we fix governance by Gurcharan Das November 12, 2009 WIPRO Marbella
  • 2.
  • 3. Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new It has been going on for 25 years
  • 4. What is the India story?
  • 5. 28 years of high growth 1.0 3.5 6.0 8.9 (%) Average annual GDP growth 0 2 4 6 8 10 1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007
  • 6. Population growth is slowing Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001) 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 (%) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1901-1950 1951-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
  • 7. Literacy is rising Source: Census of India (2001) 17 52 65 80 (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj)
  • 8. When middle class is 50% then the politics will also change Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002 65 220 368 8% 22% 32% 0 100 200 300 400 1980 2000 2010 (m)
  • 9. Poverty is declining 46 26 16 1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 25 years Equals ~ 200m (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 1980 2000 2010
  • 10. Per capita income gains Source: World Bank US$ ppp 2005 3,051 1980 1,178
  • 11.
  • 12. The India model is unique
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Implication of India model – Consumption led People Friendly: Consumption as % of GDP People Friendly, Less inequality: Gini Index Will India become the next big consuming economy after the U.S.? 41% 45% 59% U.S. China Brazil India 33% 58% 42% 64% Europe China India
  • 20. Reasons for success India’s success is market-led whereas China’s is state induced The entrepreneur is at the centre of the Indian model
  • 21. Rise of globally competitive Indian companies
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31. The economy grows at night when the government is asleep
  • 32.  
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. “ By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.” Professor David Crystal Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39. Per capita income 2,100 3,050 5,800 16,800 37,000 On a ppp basis 2000 2005 2020 2040 2066 0 10 20 30 40 ($000)
  • 40.
  • 41. India will gradually turn middle-class 50% 50% 8% 22% 32% West of the Kanpur- Chennai line East of the Kanpur- Chennai line Chennai Kanpur- 1980 2000 2010 2020 2040
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.

Notas del editor

  1. Please centre and cut the word old and put It has been onto a new line- could we make a consistent style for statements- maybe always in yellow, centred and growing? Please could we have some kind of outline of India in the background to make the slide prettier
  2. Could we use the script- does that fit with template?
  3. Could we have a line for the y axis as well as numbers Please animate all graphs so lines/bars and pie charts grow
  4. Again y axis
  5. Again line for y axis- is there a reason that the line is on green rather than orange?
  6. Line for y axis
  7. Y axis line Could we put text in white in a box of It– put Equals …..on its own line in yellow to make it more impactful
  8. Could we centre up the chart?
  9. Cut the word and and centre up. Could we either make the statement grow and/or make it into a different colour to make it more impactful? Or could we add an image – we have loads of India images
  10. Is it on brand to use script here?
  11. Could we add India image from file? Make yellow title bullet and white sub bullets
  12. Again could we add India image from file Same with bullets and sub bullets
  13. animate
  14. Centre up and change colour Grow as two separate statements
  15. Centre these up – maybe make a little bigger?
  16. These should be bullet points- image search Indian Policeman?
  17. Image of Delhi at night from Google or istock?
  18. Make bullets consistent
  19. Y axis as a line Please cut This means
  20. Make bullets consistent
  21. Animate graph
  22. Pic of Indian school kids? Consistent bullet points
  23. Please make a pie chart out of religious percentages Make bullet points out of last 3 points
  24. Could we find an Indian Elephant image?