The slides for the keynote I will present at SIPA 09 in London on Thursday Nov 19, 2009

1. A new era for specialist mediaDavid Cushman, MDNinety10group.com

2. 10-Nov-09 2 Who am I? 20+ years in media, advertising, marketing and organisational change Author of The Power of the Network Blog ranked world No7 for publishing, UK’s top 20 for marketing/advertising Invited to speak on the impact of social tech from New York to San Francisco (the valley, too) Cannes to Canada Helped Bauer/emap, Honda, Phillips, Sony-Ericsson, Gatwick Airport, Edge, UKBA, CWDC, DfT, Grey (London), MCBD, Digitas, RIOT/180, ThirdeyeT, Band&Brown, Gambling Compliance, The Met Police et al Trustee of UK charity Citizens Online MD of social tech consultancy 90:10

3. 10-Nov-09 3 Context

4. What’s changed? How to respond Content production, distribution and user experience is now in the hands of everyone. What does that mean for those who used to control all that – publishers. Why the internet-powered long tail of demand is a disaster for traditional broad mass media models but a huge opportunity for specialists. How fragmentation means you can never hope to target all emerging niche communities – and what you can do to engage them When nobody wants to pay for content and no one clicks on the ads why thinking of specialist content as 'social objects' can reveal where the ROI comes from.

5. Out of control How content production, distribution and user experience is now in the hands of everyone - and what that means for publishers

6. 10-Nov-09 6 A huge shift. From one - to many Image?

7. 10-Nov-09 7 Everybody’s Media: Social Media Digitally enabled peer-to-peer networks From email and sms to Facebook and Twitter Distribution is by people to people Content is by people to be shared with other people

8. 10-Nov-09 8 Everybody’s Media: Social Media Digitally enabled peer-to-peer networks From email and sms to Facebook and Twitter Distribution is by people to people Content is by people to be shared with other people POWER!

9. 10-Nov-09 9 Power? Every hotel Every restaurant Every shop Everywhere… Filled with published critics

10. We’re all publishers now

11. 10-Nov-09 11 We’re all publishers now 300m blogs globally 73% of web users read blogs Facebook members now over 300m (from 120m a yr ago) Twitter has now exceeded 50m – up 49m in a year! (overtaken myspace in UK) More video added to YouTube in last year than broadcast by TV EVER! The revolution is speeding up...

12. 10-Nov-09 12 Peer to peer interaction The most powerful behaviour changer there is We do what others like us do Social media brings us together with people like us Social media helps people like us act together

13. 10-Nov-09 13 All publishers, advertisers & marketers now Friend-recommendation is responsible for 70%+ of all purchase decisions 34% write about products and brands on their blogs 20% of all tweets are brand related 23% of social network users have added applications 18% of bloggers install widgets Image by Melissa Gray

14. 10-Nov-09 14 How do we adapt?

15. The internet-powered long tail of demand is a disaster for traditional broad mass media models But it’s a huge opportunity for specialists. A disaster and an opportunity

16. The user is the destination now

17. 10-Nov-09 17 Hits are worth(-)less in a networked world The long tail... The idea that the majority is made up of people who don’t want the thing that the largest single group do. Twitter Trends, the charts and often elections – surface the largest single group – not, by a long way, the majority

18. 10-Nov-09 18 The science bit Three laws describe how value growsand is distributed in networks…

19. 10-Nov-09 19 Sarnoff’s Law – the red line The value of a broadcast network is proportional to the number of viewers/listeners: Eg TV, Radio, Cinema

20. 10-Nov-09 20 Metcalfe’s Law: the yellow line The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users of the system (n² growth): Fax machines, telephones, one-to-one communications.

22. 10-Nov-09 22 How does this reveal the value of a broad, ‘lowest common denominator’ hit in the networked world?

23. 10-Nov-09 23 Flip the graphs to find the demand curve …and we discover why the long tail succeeds in the group forming (Reed’s Law) world of social networks that IS the internet.

24. 10-Nov-09 24 Hits take more of the available valuein a broadcast world

25. 10-Nov-09 25 Hits were worth more in broadcast world Shaded area shows hits account for a greater proportion of the available demand and total value in Sarnoff’s broadcast world and in Metcalfe’sworld of one-to-one communications. The biggest single group = the majority in a broadcast world but a small minority in the networked world

26. 10-Nov-09 26 Hits are still worth having… but They have less proportional value compared to the overall economics of the networked world. In a broadcast world the hit was where MOST of the value resided The opposite is true in a networked world. Narrowcasting serves a greater number of people. All those tiny niches are bigger in total than the largest of your lowest-common-denominator single groups. So if you're really about scale - you know what to do… or at least try to do

27. 10-Nov-09 27 Caution: Snakes Long tail is getting longer…

28. 10-Nov-09 28 Frightening Fragmentation Q: How can we reach deep into and along the ever-elongating long tail? A: Understand how messages/ideas and conversations evolve in the networked world

29. You can’t target – they can Fragmentation means you can never hope to target all emerging niche communities So what you can do to engage them?

30. The internet is for people.

31. The internet is for people. For people to form groups

32. The internet is for people. For people to form groupsGroups with sharedpurposes

33. The internet is for people. For people to form groupsGroups with shared purposesGroups of people that can form at little or no cost

34. 10-Nov-09 34 That changes everything http://flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/

35. Three key disruptions Who gets to create content? Who gets to distribute content? Who controls the user experience?

36. Three keydisruptions Who gets to create content? Any and everyone Who gets to distribute content? Any and everyone Who controls the user experience? The user is the destination now, they control their own A-to-anywhere journey

37. You can’t target every community of purpose They can Here’s how http://flickr.com/photos/caribb/

38. You can’t target every community of purpose They can Here’s how

39. 10-Nov-09 39 THE STAGE Message broadcast at audience Scale = audience = where the eyeballs have gone

40. 10-Nov-09 40 THE STAGE But in the networked world the broadcast message doesn’t arrive

41. 10-Nov-09 41 They aren’t looking at The Stage. They are looking at each other Scale = lots of communities of purpose = where the eyeballs are focused

43. They make the message theirsWe share what we think is cool with people who (we think) will think its cool, too

45. The message spreads when the groups reform around a new purpose Users select what they think is cool (has utility) to take with them on their journey

46. 10-Nov-09 44 Participants adapt the message to suit the group they wish to share it with The people best-placed to adapt the message are in the group, not on the stage

47. 10-Nov-09 45 And so it continues; the message evolving to survive. Or it dies out We share what we think is cool. That which we co-create, we embrace

48. 10-Nov-09 46 They aren’t your groups they are theirs They aren’t your messages they are theirs Communication is not done to them, it is done by them

49. 8th Mass Media WE are the distribution, WE are the content, WE are the 'user journey', WE are how messages are transmitted. WE are the medium and the media carried by it WE are the connections. and how the connections are made.

50. 10-Nov-09 48 Same as it ever was?

51. Strategies for success in the 8th Mass Media We need to think of specialist content as 'social objects' This will reveal the new revenues in a world where nobody wants to pay for content and no one clicks on the ads.

52. What’s a social object? You and your friend, Joe, like to go bowling every Tuesday. The bowling is the Social Object. Hugh Macleod – GapingVoid.com It is the interesting thing that brings people together to talk/interact/do stuff 10-Nov-09 50

53. Give them something interesting to do together (social objects) Make it easy for people who care to connect and interact People who care, act Action creates value (makes change) Their actions attract more people to the purpose by amplifying and sustaining the conversation

54. The value is in the community interaction Nursery Rules: Distribution vs Contribution CompareMyRadio, Synth Britannia, Mixcloud: why the long tail wins The publisher’s role in discovery: the value of keeping the silo open

55. Lessons from the network Publishing is The Great Reminder. It has real potential to be the social object around which peer-to-peer interaction happens. And the real magic happens in those peer-to-peer interactions. This is where the purchase reminders and recommendations happen in the main. Getting your share: It is therefore where the greater revenue opportunities lay. Your click-to-buy model (or it's equivalent) therefore has to be portable so peers can take it with them on their journeys. Narrowcasting serves a greater number of people. All those tiny niches are bigger in total than the largest of your lowest-common-denominator single groups. So if you're really about scale - you know what to do. Discovery = community curated content ONLY where communities are fuzzy-edged. Bear that in mind when you consider whose communities we are talking about - and where they reside.

56. Monetising the interactions requires: Tracking from source of inspiration Portability (goes with the user) Agreements on revenue shares (with platform providers and/or users, too?)

57. 10-Nov-09 55 The networked journey Listening to and responding to the network requires and drives cultural change within the organisation itself. It raises and answers big questions about ownership and control to make your brand or organisation a better fit with the demands of the networked world. It is your safe passage to the future

58. 10-Nov-09 56 Remember: Something’s got to give If the world outside is changing faster than the world inside, something is going to tear It won’t be the world outside

59. 10-Nov-09 57 Remember: There’s more help outside than in The people who can make the biggest difference to your company - who can help you most - don't work for it. Adapting to the network means they can.

60. 10-Nov-09 58 Remember: The great disruption has only just begun Brian Eno 1991

61. David Cushman Ninety10group.com FasterFuture.blogspot.com twitter.com/davidcushman davidpcushman@gmail.com david@ninety10group.com Call or text +447736 353590 10-Nov-09 59