Pandemic Changing Us
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Pandemic Changing Us: Changes in Trust and Cyberpolitics, among European and American countries, Presented at WAPOR 2022 Annual Conference - Dubai By Carmen Beatriz Fernández (UNAV, Spain) and Jenifer Campos (IESA, Venezuela)
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Pandemic Changing Us
- 1. Pandemic Changing Us: Changes in Trust and Cyberpolitics, among European and American countries Carmen Beatriz Fernández (UNAV, Spain) Jenifer Campos (IESA, Venezuela)
- 2. Abstract ● The coronavirus pandemic may have had a strong impact on social trust. ● Somehow, the pandemic turned the planet into a “laboratory”; demonstrating how, in the face of an external shock, important and sudden changes can occur (when altering or modifying) our reliable references. ● This research paper seeks to identify the changes in trust towards the media that occurred between 2019 and 2021, by comparing nine countries: four Latin American, the United States, and four European countries. ● Changes of trust in news, came together with changes in cyberpolitics´uses and ideological polarization, for analyzed countries
- 3. Research Questions RQ1: How is the use of cyberpolitics related to trust in media? RQ2: Are there differences in trust for the USA, Latin American and European countries, before and after the pandemia? RQ3: How does ideological polarization affect the relationship between cyberpolitics and trust?
- 4. Methodology Using questions from DNR (Digital News Report. 2019, 2021), 3 indexes were built on a scale of 0 to 1 1. Cyberpolitics through two dimensions: infopolitics (level of news consumption in the media) and cyberactivism (level of participation in communication platforms). 2. Trust in News (measured by individuals' perception of trust in news in general) 3. Ideological polarization (derived from political self-positioning) These indexes allowed a comparison, through a mean difference test between the nine countries, before and after the pandemic, in order to weight the changes observed.
- 5. Year Error Bars: 95% Confidence LATAM Europe USA Mean intensity of internet use Intensity of internet use Mean by Country and Year COUNTRIIES Findings Intensity of internet is up, but cyberpolitics is down… As for the US the difference might be explained because of the electoral year Mean Cyberpolitics Year Error Bars: 95% Confidence LATAM Europe USA Cyberpolitics Mean by Country and Year COUNTRIIES
- 6. Findings Mean Cyberpolitics Year Year Year Error Bars: 95% Confidence Cyberpolitics Mean by Country and Year Countries LATAM Europe USA Countries USA Germany Italy Spain Brazil Portugal Mexico Chile Agentina Drop in cyberpolitics is observed for every country (2019 vs 2021) More marked in the USA and Latin America (5%*). For Europe was 2%
- 7. Findings Cyberpolitics is falling everywhere… but most in cyberactivism than infopolitics Cyberactivism Infopolitics Mean Inforpolitics Year Error Bars: 95% Confidence LATAM Europe USA Infopolitics Mean by Country and Year COUNTRIIES Mean Cyberactivism Year Error Bars: 95% Confidence LATAM Europe USA Cyberactivism Mean by Country and Year COUNTRIIES
- 8. Year Countries Europe LATAM Countries USA USA Germany Italy Spain Brazil Portugal Mexico Chile Agentina Trust in News by Country and Year Mean Trust Year Error Bars: 95% Confidence Findings: Trust in news is falling 6 out 9 countries dropped their trust in news (2019 to 2021) More intense in Chile and Mexico (6%), and Spain (3%) US very low levels in 2019 to its lowest Year Countries Europe LATAM Countries USA USA Germany Italy Spain Brazil Portugal Mexico Chile Agentina Trust in “News” by Country and Year I think you can trust most news most of the time Mean Trust Year Error Bars: 95% Confidence Year Year
- 9. Derecha More Trust Less Trust Less Cyberpolitics More Cyberpolitics OLD FASHION TRUSTED High Trust, Low Cyberpolitics SUSPICIUS 2.0 Low Trust in Media, High Cyberpolitics OLD FASHION SUSPICIUS Low Trust in Media, Low Cyberpolitics A categorization TRUSTED 2.0 High Trust, High Cyberpolitics
- 10. More Trust Less Trust Less Cyberpolitics More Cyberpolitics TRUSTED 2.0 High Trust, High Cyberpolitics OLD FASHION TRUSTED High Trust, Low Cyberpolitics SUSPICIUS 2.0 Low Trust, High Cyberpolitics OLD FASHION SUSPICIUS Low Trust, Low Cyberpolitics Country position by categories (2019) Brasil Argentina USA TRUSTED 2.0 High Trust, High Cyberpolitics
- 11. Pospandemia showed for Latin America that ideological change benefits leftists ideologies. An increased ideologization in Europa, both left and right. The US showed a decreased ideologization, both left and right, moved to the center (Median Voter) Findings: ideological polarization
- 12. Similar behavior between different ideologies for Italy, Portugal, Brasil. Middle distance for Spain, Mexico, Chile, Argentina Long distance between levels of trust and cyberpolitics for leftist and righties in the USA and Germany Findings: Ideology matters… There is not uniformity intra countries Cyberpolitics Trust in News Left Right
- 13. Moving toward OLD FASHION zone is a common pattern (with or without trust in media) Hypothesis: Burn out? Findings: Trust, cyberpolitics, and polarization Left Right Trust in News Cyberpolitics
- 14. Conclusions and practical implications 1. Between 2019 and 2021 there was a significative recession in the use of cyberpolitics, for analyzed countries. 2. A drop in trust in news, also was noticed for selected countries. 6 out 9 countries dropped their trust in news (2019 to 2021) 3. These changes occurred together with changes in ideological polarization, observing an increase in leftist self-positioning for Latin Americans, an increase of ideological polarization (both left and right) for Europeans, and a centrification of the American voters. 4. A categorization of countries, based in their levels of trust in news, and intensity of cyberpolitics was made: Confident 2.0, Confident Old Fashion, Distrustful Old Fashion and Suspicius or Distrustful 2.0. 5. There are countries with strong internal differences in their levels of trust in media, depending on ideology (i.e. Germany and USA). It implies a risky situation, since trust in media is needed to effectively implement public policies on health
Notas del editor
- Digital News Report (2019, 2021) Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and USA (around 2000 surveys for each country). Digital News Report (DNR) is a study conducted by the Reuters Institute for the study of Journalism at the University of Oxford. The Communication School of the University of Navarra has preferential access to the data that the YouGov pollster collects for the Reuters Institute. Every year, YouGov carries out a worldwide macro-survey for 38 countries and their news consumption habits.
- Cyberpolitics index, a statistically significant drop can be seen in the three groups of countries, being greater in Latin America and the United States than in Europe. For Latin America, it goes from an index of 0.49 to 0.44, while in the United States the drop in the index is from 0.46 to 0.41; and for Europe from 0.46 to 0.44
- Cyberpolitics was studied as the average between the Infopolitics and Cyberactivism indices. From Infopolitics, a drop in the value of the index is observed for the year 2021 with respect to the year 2019, this being more marked in the USA (6%) and Latin America (4%) (countries of the new world), while in Europe it is remains almost the same in both years. Now, when referring to the Cyberactivism index, a similar behavior can be seen for Latin America, with a drop of 5 percentage points, but for the USA and Europe the behavior is very similar, but they clearly have lower levels than those observed in Latin America. This is related to the intensity of internet use, which is much higher in this last group of countries. Then, when integrating these results into the Cyberpolitics index, a statistically significant drop can be seen in the three groups of countries, this being greater in Latin America and the United States than in Europe. For Latin America, it goes from an index of 0.49 to 0.44, while in the United States the drop in the index is from 0.46 to 0.41; and for Europe from 0.46 to 0.44. In this situation, it is interesting to observe how the existing gap between LATAM and Europe observed in 2019 disappears by 2021, with both groups of countries having the same cyberpolitics index on average and therefore a similar behavior in the use of digital media. For its part, in 2019 the average behavior of the USA and Europe was similar, but for the year 2021 both groups of countries diverge, with the level of activity in the USA being much lower. Now, if we observe the detail of the behavior of each country and the contribution that each of them has to the index of the region, regarding Latin America, it is relevant to highlight that the four countries have the same behavior, but the level of cyber politics in Brazil is 2 percentage points higher than that of Mexico, Chile and Argentina in both years. In the case of the European countries, it is Germany that presents a different behavior from that of Spain, Italy and Portugal, but in this case it is because it is lower than that of the other countries.
- Regarding Infopolitics, a drop in the value of the index is observed for the year 2021 with respect to the year 2019, this being more marked in the USA (6%) and Latin America (4%) (countries of the new world), while in Europe it is remains almost the same in both years. Now, when referring to the Cyberactivism index, a similar behavior is observed for Latin America, with a drop of 6 percentage points from 23% to 17%, however for the USA (dromp 3) and Europe (drop 2) the behavior is very similar, but they clearly have lower levels than those observed in Latin America. This is related to the intensity of internet use, which is much higher in this last group of countries.
- The variable called Confidence 1 is studied, which refers to “trust in most news most of the time”. Here it is relevant to highlight the dissimilar behavior of the three groups of countries. The countries of Europe are the ones that reach the highest levels of confidence, close to 0.55 points on average for both periods studied, with Portugal and Italy standing out as the most stable in this measurement, while in Germany confidence went from 0.56 to 0.58, and in Spain from 0.52 to 0.59. Portugal is the country in this region with the highest confidence index, standing at 0.60. The countries of Latin America have a lower trust than those of the old continent, starting at 0.53 for the year 2019 and falling to 0.50 for 2021. Of this group, Brazil is the only country in which trust increases, passes from 0.54 to 0.56. In the other countries of the region, trust decreases after the pandemic, with Mexico and Chile being the countries that show the greatest decrease in this value (6 percentage points). The United States is the country with the least trust, in 2019 the index is 0.44 and in 2021 it is 0.43, although these differences are only indicative, if the trend continues, in the long term we would have a highly distrustful society in the news in general, which can lead to the emergence of more radical groups.
- The variable called Confidence 2 is studied, which refers to “confidence in news that I use”. Here it is relevant to highlight the dissimilar behavior of the three groups of countries. The countries of Europe are the ones that reach the highest levels of confidence, close to 0.55 points on average for both periods studied, with Portugal and Italy standing out as the most stable in this measurement, while in Germany confidence went from 0.56 to 0.58, and in Spain from 0.52 to 0.59. Portugal is the country in this region with the highest confidence index, standing at 0.60. The countries of Latin America have a lower trust than those of the old continent, starting at 0.53 for the year 2019 and falling to 0.50 for 2021. Of this group, Brazil is the only country in which trust increases, passes from 0.54 to 0.56. In the other countries of the region, trust decreases after the pandemic, with Mexico and Chile being the countries that show the greatest decrease in this value (6 percentage points). The United States is the country with the least trust, in 2019 the index is 0.44 and in 2021 it is 0.43, although these differences are only indicative, if the trend continues, in the long term we would have a highly distrustful society in the news in general, which can lead to the emergence of more radical groups.
- We defined a categorization based in levels of cyberpolitics and trust in news. We defined for different groups, regarding the presence of both variables. Calling them: Trusted 2.0 Old fashion trusted Old fashion suspicious Suspicius 2.0
- This is the average
- Ex: To the extent that the distance between level of trust between right and left in the same country increases, the proportion of non-vaccinated would also increase. In countries of the Global North (where there are no vaccine distribution problems).