- Industrial production in Spain fell 3.8% in November 2020 compared to a 1.6% increase in November 2019. Tourism was heavily impacted with a 76.9% decrease in visitors and 78.1% drop in spending from January to November 2020. - The Eurozone is expected to enter a double recession as new COVID-19 cases and restrictions prolong economic disruption. Forecasts for Q1 2021 GDP growth have been revised downward, and mobility and retail activity remain well below pre-pandemic levels. - US employment growth weakened in December 2020 with a loss of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls, primarily in leisure and hospitality. However, other sectors maintained growth while long-term unemployment fell slightly.

1. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on CIS, 2020.
0
20
40
60
80
100
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
-3.8
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ene
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
2019 2020
76.9%
Nº of tourists
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ene
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
2019 2020
78.1%
Touristexpenditure
Industrial production, Spain
In November 2020, the industrial production
index (IPI) fell 3.8% year-on-year against a 1.6%
increase in the same month in 2019.
By sectors, all showed negative rates except
intermediate goods (1.2% year-on-year).
Production in the energy sector also fell 7.8%
year-on-year, capital goods 7.1% and consumer
goods 3.6%.
By Autonomous Community, the biggest year-
on-year increases were in Extremadura (26.4%)
and Murcia (4.6%). On the other hand, the
Balearic Islands (-15.8%) and Navarre (-9.8%)
registered the biggest decreases.
Tourism sector, Spain
Between January and November 2020, 18.3
million tourists visited Spain, compared to 79.2
million in the same period of the previous year
(-76.9% year-on-year).
By country of residence, France was the major
emitter (20.3% of the total), although it
registered a fall of 65% year-on-year. Next, was
the UK (16.7%), with a decrease of 82.2%, and
Germany (12.7%), with -78.2% year-on-year.
For its part, total spending by tourists fell 78.1%
year-on-year (against +2.5% from January-
November 2019), reaching €19.044 million.
Averagespendingperpersonwas€1,040andthe
average duration of the trip was 7.7 days.
Themainemittingcountriesintermsofspending
weretheUK(15.8%ofthetotal),withadecrease
of 82.3% year-on-year, Germany (13.3%), with
-77.3%, and France (12.2%), with -68%.
CCI, Spain
In December 2020, the Consumer Confidence
Index (CCI) reached 63.1 points, compared to
55.7 points in November, and 77.7 points in
December 2019. This monthly increase was
due to improvements in scores for the
assessment of the current situation (+4.3
points) and those related to expectations
(+10.5 points). Despite the monthly upturn,
this data is similar to the 2012 and 2013 values,
one of the periods with the worst results since
recording began. The 2020 CCI yearly average
reached 59.9 points, 29.4 points lower than in
2019, making it the worst result since 2012.
Economy…
at a glance January 2021
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2020.
Number of tourists and tourist expenditure Jan-Nov, Spain
Millions of people and billions of €
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2020.
Industrial production index, Spain
YoY change (%)
CCI, Spain
Points

2. ‘Economy at a glance’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However, the
Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo de
Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning.
www.circulodeempresarios.org
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Dec-20
Germany France
Italy Spain
-8
-4
0
4
8
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Apr-16
Aug-16
Dec-16
Apr-17
Aug-17
Dec-17
Apr-18
Aug-18
Dec-18
Apr-19
Aug-19
Dec-19
Apr-20
Aug-20
Dec-20
CPI PPI
161
120.5
51
46.6
38
-22
-31
-498
-600 -400 -200 0 200
Professional and Bussiness Services
Retail Trade
Construcction
Transportation and Warehousing
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Financial activities
Mining
Utilities
Information
Other services
Education and Health
Leisure and Hospitality
Economic activity, Eurozone
The Eurozone is heading towards a double
recession as the blockages and mobility
restrictions are prolonged.
Analysts from a variety of financial entities
such as JPMorgan or USB Group AG are
revising their growth projections downward
for Q1 2021 due to the increase in Covid-19
cases, delays in the vaccination program and
the commercial disruption caused by Brexit.
In concrete, GDP growth forecast revisions
for Q1 2021 are:
-Bloomberg foresees a 4% contraction
against the 1.3% growth previously
projected.
-JP Morgan forecasts a decrease of 1% (vs.
the +2% initially estimated).
-USB is expecting a 0.4% contraction (vs.
the +2.4% previously estimated).
High-frequency indicators show how
mobility in retail businesses is still between
20% and 40% below the levels of January
2019.
For its part, retail sales showed a significant
decrease in November of 6% monthly, while
industrial production has remained stuck on
+0.4% monthly since August.
Employment, US
Employment recovery in the US has
weakened due to the increase in Covid-19
cases. In December 2020, non-farm payrolls
fell by 140,000 workers compared to the
previous month, according to the
Department of Labor. The contraction
mainly occurred in restaurants, bars and
other businesses affected by the new
mobility restrictions.
By contrast, other labor market sectors such
as retail, professional and commercial
services, construction and the
manufacturing sector maintained a solid rate
of growth.
At the same time, the number of long-term
unemployed people fell, reaching its lowest
point in the past 4 months (3.37 million
people).
For its part, the rate of unemployment
remained at 6.7%, after a series of seven
consecutive decreases.
CPI, China
In December 2020, China’s CPI (consumer
price index) grew 0.2% year-on-year after
November’s decrease (-0,5%).
This upturn was largely due to the increase in
food and energy prices. For its part, the fall in
production prices (PPI) was reduced
significantly to -0.4%, 1pp above the average
registered for the year.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2021.
Evolution of prices, China
YoY change (%)
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on National Bureau of Statistics
of China, 2021.
Job creation by activity in December, US
Var. thousands of jobs
Evolution of economic activity, Eurozone
Index January 2020 = 100, high frequency data
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg, Google and
German Statistical Office, 2021.