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The Future of Cities: 
What will cities look like in 2065? 
Sir Mark Walport 
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
Knowledge translated to economic 
advantage 
Infrastructure resilience 
Underpinning policy with evidence 
Science for emergencies 
Advocacy and leadership for science 
British Science Festival 
Government Chief Scientific Adviser 
2 
Image: iStockphoto
British Science Festival 
Role of the Chief Scientific Adviser 
to HM Government 
Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet 
Responsible for the quality of all S&T 
advice across the whole of Government 
Lead a network of departmental Chief 
Scientific Advisers 
Head of the Science and Engineering 
Profession in the Civil Service 
Supported by the Government Office for 
Science 
3 
Image: iStockphoto
4 British Science Festival 
Looking at the future of 
cities has a long history 
Eugène Hénard, The Cities of the Future, published in, 
American City January 1911
British Science Festival 
Capital cities: striking a balance 
“It is the cities 
which exhaust 
the state and 
are the cause 
of its 
weakness… 
- Rousseau, Emile, 1762 
Map of Paris by Nicolas de Fer, circa 1700 
5
British Science Festival 
Joseph Chamberlain 
6 
Joseph Chamberlain 
19th Century British politician 
and statesman 
Elected Mayor of Birmingham in 1873 
Promoted many civic improvements 
Forcibly purchased Birmingham’s waterworks, 
as the water supply was considered a danger 
to public health 
Campaigner for educational reform 
Preferred to give local communities the 
responsibility to act on their own initiative 
Left the town ‘parked, paved, assized, 
marketed, gas & watered and improved’ 
(Joseph Chamberlain)
British Science Festival 
Thinking of cities as complex entities 
Patrick Geddes 
19th century Scottish town 
planner 
Thinking of cities as a whole, with history 
and character taken into account. 
Complex interactions between humans, 
their activities and the physical environment 
determine where people settle. 
Regional planning should be responsive to 
these conditions in order to seek a balance 
between people and the environment. 
7
British Science Festival 
Mapping and open spaces 
8
British Science Festival 
Mapping poverty 
9 
Charles Booth 
19th century English 
philanthropist and social 
researcher
British Science Festival 
Making room for nature 
Lewis Mumford 
20th century American 
historian, sociologist and 
philosopher of technology 
Structure of modern cities partially 
responsible for many social problems 
Culture and nature should thrive 
alongside technology in an ‘organic city’ 
Urban planning should emphasise an 
organic relationship between people 
and their living spaces 
10
Ebenezer Howard, Garden City, 1902 
11 British Science Festival 
Economics drives development 
Louis de Soissons, Diagram of general 
town-plan, Welwyn Garden City, 1920.
British Science Festival 
What makes a sidewalk safe? 
“…an immense laboratory of trial and error, failure and success…” 
Jane Jacobs 
The death and life of great American cities 
12 
Image: Amanda Orson Image: Sue Waters / CC BY-SA 2.0
British Science Festival 
The Changing Urban World 
1950 
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. 
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 
13 
30% 
Urban. 
global pop.
British Science Festival 
1980 
14 
The Changing Urban World 
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. 
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 
40% 
Urban. 
global pop.
British Science Festival 
2010 
15 
The Changing Urban World 
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. 
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 
52% 
Urban. 
global pop.
British Science Festival 
2030 
16 
The Changing Urban World 
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. 
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 
61% 
Urban. 
global pop.
British Science Festival 
2050 
17 
The Changing Urban World 
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. 
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 
72% 
Urban. 
global pop.
1950 
British Science Festival 
And looking closer at Europe... 
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. 
18 
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
British Science Festival 
1980 
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 
19 
And looking closer at Europe... 
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
British Science Festival 
2010 
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 
20 
And looking closer at Europe... 
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
British Science Festival 
2030 
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 
21 
And looking closer at Europe... 
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
British Science Festival 
2050 
22 
And looking closer at Europe... 
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. 
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
23 British Science Festival 
Why are cities important? 
Image: Centre for Cities, 2014
There are many possible definitions 
24 British Science Festival 
What is a city? 
Physical components of cities 
include: 
▪ Physical boundaries 
▪ Population size 
▪ Hinterland 
▪ Natural infrastructure 
▪ Built infrastructure 
▪ Transport links to other cities & 
countries 
Map shows alternative geographic boundaries 
of cities using different statistical thresholds 
Source: Arcaute, E., Ferguson, P. et al 
arXiv:1301.1674 [physics.soc-ph] 
Travel to work data from Census 2001
Cities emerge from the demand for 
populations to interact and are about 
people: 
• Poverty and wealth 
• Culture and diversity 
• Social inclusion/exclusion 
• Crime 
• Demographics, e.g., ageing population 
• Identity 
• Overlapping systems of governance 
• Legal designation 
British Science Festival 
More than infrastructure 
25 
Image: Julian Mason/CC BY 2.0 
Image: iStockphoto
26 British Science Festival 
Plenty of urban issues
British Science Festival 
Current Trends in the UK 
Distinct divide in North-South 
productivity and employment. 
London is outperforming the rest 
of the UK economy. 
Our largest cities lag behind 
London in terms of their 
performance – and lag behind 
their European rivals in terms of 
levels of GDP per capita 
achieved. 
Cities do not work in isolation – 
the networks and interactions 
between them are important. 
GROWTH IN OUTPUT (NOMINAL GROSS VALUE ADDED) 2007-2011 
Source: ONS, Regional Economic Indicators - March 2013 
27
There are many core questions, including: 
 What is a successful city? 
 How do cities grow and develop? 
 Can we make cities more sustainable? 
 What are the options for city governance? 
 How will city ambitions relate to national 
frameworks? 
28 British Science Festival 
Future of Cities project 
Project aim: 
Provide central and local government with 
an evidence base to support decisions in 
the short term which will lead to positive 
outcomes for cities in the long term 
Living in Cities 
Urban Economies 
Urban Metabolism 
Urban Form 
& Infrastructure 
Urban Governance 
Science of Cities 
6 KEY THEMES
Future challenges and opportunities 
• Demography -ageing population 
• Economic competitiveness 
• Governance 
• Climate change 
• Technology 
• Sustainability – energy, waste 
• Resilience 
• International competition 
• Network of cities 
British Science Festival 
29 
HOUSEHOLD INCOME PER WEEK, 
ENGLAND AND WALES (GBP) 
What are the key enablers of 
success for different cities? 
What are their most important 
decisions in preparing for the 
future?
Major employers 
Third Sector 
British Science Festival 
Future of Cities project 
We are engaging with a broad range of stakeholders 
through working papers, seminars, workshops and futures 
exercises to develop the evidence base. 
City visits City futures Academics 
Working papers Workshops 
Practitioners 
Central Government 
Young people 
Local Authorities 
Future Cities Catapult 
+ many others 
Institutes 
30
Meetings with 19 cities with 
representatives from: 
 Local Governments and the Public Sector 
 Universities 
 Local Employers / Private Sector 
 Local Charities / Third Sector 
British Science Festival 
City Seminars 
31
Prominent emerging themes: 
Social disparities 
Close proximity of richest and most deprived areas; 
how to alleviate social disparity 
Employment (and skills) 
Future employment trends would shape city; 
Skills disparities 
Transport 
Inter/intra city links needed; importance of connectivity 
Governance 
Coherent leadership and collaboration needed for 
progress 
Calls for greater local government autonomy 
Identity 
Do people identify most strongly with a city, a region, or 
a country? 
The groups were encouraged to continue 
the process and commission their own 
local foresight projects to look at the 
future of their city. 
British Science Festival 
What makes a city ‘sticky’? 
32
Work 
Type of future work needs to 
be determined as it dictates 
demographies and housing 
British Science Festival 
Birmingham City Seminar 
Demographic change 
Birmingham is the youngest 
city in Europe 
Diversity 
Super diversity and 
super connectivity are 
strengths for the city 
Employment 
Below average 
employment rate of 
63% (UK av. 71%) 
But above average 
employment growth 
rate of +1.1% (UK av. 
of +0.8%) 
Relationships with other UK 
towns and cities 
London and the rest 
Liverpool-Manchester 
Newcastle-Sunderland-Gateshead 
Birmingham-Solihull 
Governance 
and vision 
Liveability 
People are attracted by 
culture and entertainment, 
not just work 
33 
Connectivity 
HS2
British Science Festival 
Research Themes 
Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism 
Urban Form & 
Infrastructure 
Urban Governance Science of cities 
34
Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism 
British Science Festival 
Living in cities 
Science of cities 
Urban Form & 
Infrastructure 
Urban Governance 
35
115 
105 
95 
85 
75 
65 
55 
The population will continue to increase. 
Uncertainty regarding how much higher 
the population will be by 2065. 
UK will potentially be EU’s most 
populous country by 2060. 
Increasing population 
80.6M 
64.5M 
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 
British Science Festival 
Millions 
Variant projection High Population High Migration High Fertiliy High Life Expectancy 
Principal Low Life Expectancy Low Fertility Low Migration Low Population 
36 
Source: ONS (2012)
Increasingly diverse population, across 
the UK. 
By 2065, most UK cities will have levels 
of ethnic diversity similar to levels 
currently experienced in Birmingham. 
This is not a new phenomenon. UK cities 
have long had continuously changing 
and diversifying demographic profiles. 
British Science Festival 
Increasing diversity 
How do we develop cities to prevent 
the marginalisation and exclusion of 
groups of their residents? 
37 
Image: iStockphoto
2.6% 
DECREASE 
15-29S 
British Science Festival 
Ageing population 
By 2065, there will be a major 
increase in the number of 
people aged over 75 in the UK. 
Ageing in cities is slower than 
elsewhere. 
Significant impact on the 
design and operation of our 
towns and cities. 
8% 
INCREASE 
75+ 
0.8% 
INCREASE 
65-75S 
CHANGES IN THE PROPORTION OF 
AGE COHORT GROUPS OF THE UK 
POPULATION 2014-2065 
38
British Science Festival 
Ageing population 
How should cities be adapted to provide 
attractive living and working 
environments for the elderly? 
Could we reinvent the family home? 
39 
Image: Patrick Vale, RIBA (2013)
British Science Festival 
Where will people live? 
There are distinctive age-related 
migration patterns. 
The trend for older people to 
move to coastal towns is 
expected to continue. 
Graduate talent, age 20-30 
predominantly moves to London. 
Majority of people leaving 
London (pre-retirement) move to 
Greater South East region. 
Where will people choose to live in the 
future? At what point during their life? 
40 
Centre for Cities, 2014 
Net migration in and out of London, 2009-2012
British Science Festival 
Liveability is key 
41 
Image: London Legacy Development Corporation
Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism 
British Science Festival 
Urban Economies 
Science of cities 
Urban Form & 
Infrastructure 
Urban Governance 
42
British Science Festival 
Changing future of work 
New technologies will change the 
geographies of production. 
3D printing 
ICT continues to change travel 
patterns and enables distance 
working-living lifestyles 
The rise of ‘third spaces’ for 
people to meet, communicate and 
work will continue: e.g. coffee 
shops as a working environment 
‘coffices’ 
43 
Image: Jonathan Juursema/CC BY-SA 3.0
British Science Festival 
Evolving skills & education 
Skills base is hugely important to 
the adaptability of our cities. 
Increasing skills gaps are 
reported. E.g. coding. 
Increasing numbers of older and 
ethnically diverse workforce to 
be included in employment. 
What skills and knowledge should 
we invest in now to enable the urban 
economies of 2050 onwards? 
How will UK cities cooperatively 
enhance UK’s competitiveness? 
44 
Image: Alfrmoldavie/CC BY-SA 3.0
Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism 
British Science Festival 
Urban Metabolism 
Science of cities 
Urban Form & 
Infrastructure 
Urban Governance 
45
46 British Science Festival 
Urban Metabolism 
Cities consume huge amounts of 
materials and resources. 
Cities potentially offer more resource-efficient 
living than non-cities. 
Major issues of vulnerability and risk to 
disruptions in supply chains. 
Image: Guy Erwood
British Science Festival 
Reduced water use 
By 2050 parts of the UK could experience an 
annual reduction in river flows of 15%, and 
as much as 80% in some catchments during 
the summer. There will, however, be heavier 
rainfall in winters. 
Coupled with population growth, this will 
increase water demand in hotter seasons, 
with greatest water stress projected in the 
populous Greater South East. 
47
British Science Festival 
Changing energy generation 
The UK is currently a net importer of 
energy and exposed to vulnerabilities 
to supply disruptions. 
UK cities will increasingly: 
• Integrate decentralised modes of 
energy generation. 
• Deploy smart grids linked into 
smart meters and smart 
appliances. 
• Develop zero carbon homes and 
building to reduce the energy 
footprint of the built environment. 
48 
Image: Guerito/CC BY-NC 2.0
Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism 
British Science Festival 
Urban Form & Infrastructure 
Science of cities 
Urban Form & 
Infrastructure 
Urban Governance 
49
50 British Science Festival 
Increasing degrees of 
integration and interdependency 
Electricity, waste, transport and water infrastructure 
will exchange resources and information across 
sector boundaries. 
Improved efficiency and quality 
of service provision. 
Reductions in the enormous 
amounts of waste we produce. 
Image: Ine Steenmans
British Science Festival 
New types of mobility 
We will use smaller-scale, autonomous, 
low-carbon personal transport. 
The bicycle will remain popular! 
51 
Image: Hawkins Brown
High speed and high capacity rail 
connections between more of the UK’s 
cities will crucially impact economic 
and social development. 
52 British Science Festival 
Increased connectivity 
Image: ARUP
Much of the spatial layout of cities will be the 
same – it is highly durable. 
City centres will have re-urbanised – UK 
cities will see higher densities of 
development. 
Denser, compacter and greener urban 
forms will have huge impacts on people’s 
health and sense of belonging. 
If 75% of those currently failing to meet 
minimum daily exercise levels did meet 
recommended levels of walking, £675 million 
could be saved per year. 
British Science Festival 
Image: Space Syntax 
53 
Influence of urban form
Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism 
54 British Science Festival 
Urban Governance 
Science of cities 
Urban Form & 
Infrastructure 
Urban Governance
55 British Science Festival 
Diverse urban governance 
People will retain a sense of national 
identity but will increasingly affiliate 
with the city within which they live. 
Many young and ethnic minority 
groups already have such city-centric 
sense of belonging. 
How will the increasingly diverse city 
manage effective and equitable 
representation for all?
56 British Science Festival 
City leadership 
Cities will likely have greater autonomy in 
their decision-making. 
We will likely have an even greater diversity 
of governance arrangements in cities. 
This diversity will better reflect their individual 
cultures and histories – not all of our cities 
voted for mayors! 
Who makes decisions? 
How does city leadership need to 
evolve? 
What tools does leadership need?
57 British Science Festival 
City regions as units 
Metropolitan areas can yield ineffective 
spatial units for service provision, e.g. in 
transport, education. 
City-regions support cross-boundary 
coordination across large urban areas. 
They will significantly influence future forms 
of city governance structures. 
They are, however, difficult to define. 
How do we balance enhanced 
accountability of smaller units of 
governance and the difficulty in 
coordinating or achieving consensus on 
bigger issues across a city-region? Image: M J Richardson/CC BY-SA 2.0
Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism 
58 British Science Festival 
Science of Cities 
Science of cities 
Urban Form & 
Infrastructure 
Urban Governance
New age of data & technology 
brings potential to improve 
design and operation of cities. 
59 British Science Festival 
The Internet of Things 
Things as well as people are 
highly connected, yielding 
‘Big Data’. 
This will not be without issues: 
Privacy, Democracy? 
How to integrate technocratic and 
democratic cities? 
Draft
60 British Science Festival 
Experience of the city will change 
Augmented reality, seamless mobility 
and mobile social networking will be part 
of our everyday movements and life. 
Image: 20fourlabs.com
61 British Science Festival 
Real-time engaging of citizens 
The role of citizens will change. Citizen will 
enjoy more direct involvement in 
discussions around urban spaces. 
Real-time data analysis will enable us to 
manage cities with greater responsiveness. 
Reactions to policies, announcements will be 
gauged closer to real-time.
Living in cities 
62 British Science Festival 
But it is all interrelated! 
Urban 
Metabolism 
Urban Form & 
Infrastructure 
Urban Economies 
Urban 
Governance 
Science of cities 
CITIES
63 British Science Festival 
Interrelatedness 
The nature of the city of 2065’s challenges 
and opportunities is one of interrelatedness. 
Some issues continually emerge from these 
relationships of influence: quality of life, 
competitiveness, sustainability, resilience. 
Do we have the data and skills to better plan 
for the future of such interrelated cities?
64 British Science Festival 
Visions for 2065: Digital City
65 British Science Festival 
Visions for 2065: Liveable City
British Science Festival 
“My purpose is to inquire into the influence 
which the progress of modern science and 
industry may exercise upon the planning, and 
particularly upon the aspect, of the Cities of the 
Future… 
The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily 
susceptible to transformation and adornment 
than the Cities of Yesterday.” 
Eugene Hénard (1910) 
66
@uksciencechief 
www.gov.uk/go-science 
Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise 
for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated 
in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through go-science@bis.gsi.gov.uk.

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The Future of Cities: what will cities look like in 2065?

  • 1. The Future of Cities: What will cities look like in 2065? Sir Mark Walport Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
  • 2. Knowledge translated to economic advantage Infrastructure resilience Underpinning policy with evidence Science for emergencies Advocacy and leadership for science British Science Festival Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2 Image: iStockphoto
  • 3. British Science Festival Role of the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet Responsible for the quality of all S&T advice across the whole of Government Lead a network of departmental Chief Scientific Advisers Head of the Science and Engineering Profession in the Civil Service Supported by the Government Office for Science 3 Image: iStockphoto
  • 4. 4 British Science Festival Looking at the future of cities has a long history Eugène Hénard, The Cities of the Future, published in, American City January 1911
  • 5. British Science Festival Capital cities: striking a balance “It is the cities which exhaust the state and are the cause of its weakness… - Rousseau, Emile, 1762 Map of Paris by Nicolas de Fer, circa 1700 5
  • 6. British Science Festival Joseph Chamberlain 6 Joseph Chamberlain 19th Century British politician and statesman Elected Mayor of Birmingham in 1873 Promoted many civic improvements Forcibly purchased Birmingham’s waterworks, as the water supply was considered a danger to public health Campaigner for educational reform Preferred to give local communities the responsibility to act on their own initiative Left the town ‘parked, paved, assized, marketed, gas & watered and improved’ (Joseph Chamberlain)
  • 7. British Science Festival Thinking of cities as complex entities Patrick Geddes 19th century Scottish town planner Thinking of cities as a whole, with history and character taken into account. Complex interactions between humans, their activities and the physical environment determine where people settle. Regional planning should be responsive to these conditions in order to seek a balance between people and the environment. 7
  • 8. British Science Festival Mapping and open spaces 8
  • 9. British Science Festival Mapping poverty 9 Charles Booth 19th century English philanthropist and social researcher
  • 10. British Science Festival Making room for nature Lewis Mumford 20th century American historian, sociologist and philosopher of technology Structure of modern cities partially responsible for many social problems Culture and nature should thrive alongside technology in an ‘organic city’ Urban planning should emphasise an organic relationship between people and their living spaces 10
  • 11. Ebenezer Howard, Garden City, 1902 11 British Science Festival Economics drives development Louis de Soissons, Diagram of general town-plan, Welwyn Garden City, 1920.
  • 12. British Science Festival What makes a sidewalk safe? “…an immense laboratory of trial and error, failure and success…” Jane Jacobs The death and life of great American cities 12 Image: Amanda Orson Image: Sue Waters / CC BY-SA 2.0
  • 13. British Science Festival The Changing Urban World 1950 This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 13 30% Urban. global pop.
  • 14. British Science Festival 1980 14 The Changing Urban World This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 40% Urban. global pop.
  • 15. British Science Festival 2010 15 The Changing Urban World This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 52% Urban. global pop.
  • 16. British Science Festival 2030 16 The Changing Urban World This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 61% Urban. global pop.
  • 17. British Science Festival 2050 17 The Changing Urban World This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 72% Urban. global pop.
  • 18. 1950 British Science Festival And looking closer at Europe... This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. 18 UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
  • 19. British Science Festival 1980 UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 19 And looking closer at Europe... This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 20. British Science Festival 2010 UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 20 And looking closer at Europe... This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 21. British Science Festival 2030 UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012) 21 And looking closer at Europe... This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 22. British Science Festival 2050 22 And looking closer at Europe... This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size. UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
  • 23. 23 British Science Festival Why are cities important? Image: Centre for Cities, 2014
  • 24. There are many possible definitions 24 British Science Festival What is a city? Physical components of cities include: ▪ Physical boundaries ▪ Population size ▪ Hinterland ▪ Natural infrastructure ▪ Built infrastructure ▪ Transport links to other cities & countries Map shows alternative geographic boundaries of cities using different statistical thresholds Source: Arcaute, E., Ferguson, P. et al arXiv:1301.1674 [physics.soc-ph] Travel to work data from Census 2001
  • 25. Cities emerge from the demand for populations to interact and are about people: • Poverty and wealth • Culture and diversity • Social inclusion/exclusion • Crime • Demographics, e.g., ageing population • Identity • Overlapping systems of governance • Legal designation British Science Festival More than infrastructure 25 Image: Julian Mason/CC BY 2.0 Image: iStockphoto
  • 26. 26 British Science Festival Plenty of urban issues
  • 27. British Science Festival Current Trends in the UK Distinct divide in North-South productivity and employment. London is outperforming the rest of the UK economy. Our largest cities lag behind London in terms of their performance – and lag behind their European rivals in terms of levels of GDP per capita achieved. Cities do not work in isolation – the networks and interactions between them are important. GROWTH IN OUTPUT (NOMINAL GROSS VALUE ADDED) 2007-2011 Source: ONS, Regional Economic Indicators - March 2013 27
  • 28. There are many core questions, including:  What is a successful city?  How do cities grow and develop?  Can we make cities more sustainable?  What are the options for city governance?  How will city ambitions relate to national frameworks? 28 British Science Festival Future of Cities project Project aim: Provide central and local government with an evidence base to support decisions in the short term which will lead to positive outcomes for cities in the long term Living in Cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism Urban Form & Infrastructure Urban Governance Science of Cities 6 KEY THEMES
  • 29. Future challenges and opportunities • Demography -ageing population • Economic competitiveness • Governance • Climate change • Technology • Sustainability – energy, waste • Resilience • International competition • Network of cities British Science Festival 29 HOUSEHOLD INCOME PER WEEK, ENGLAND AND WALES (GBP) What are the key enablers of success for different cities? What are their most important decisions in preparing for the future?
  • 30. Major employers Third Sector British Science Festival Future of Cities project We are engaging with a broad range of stakeholders through working papers, seminars, workshops and futures exercises to develop the evidence base. City visits City futures Academics Working papers Workshops Practitioners Central Government Young people Local Authorities Future Cities Catapult + many others Institutes 30
  • 31. Meetings with 19 cities with representatives from:  Local Governments and the Public Sector  Universities  Local Employers / Private Sector  Local Charities / Third Sector British Science Festival City Seminars 31
  • 32. Prominent emerging themes: Social disparities Close proximity of richest and most deprived areas; how to alleviate social disparity Employment (and skills) Future employment trends would shape city; Skills disparities Transport Inter/intra city links needed; importance of connectivity Governance Coherent leadership and collaboration needed for progress Calls for greater local government autonomy Identity Do people identify most strongly with a city, a region, or a country? The groups were encouraged to continue the process and commission their own local foresight projects to look at the future of their city. British Science Festival What makes a city ‘sticky’? 32
  • 33. Work Type of future work needs to be determined as it dictates demographies and housing British Science Festival Birmingham City Seminar Demographic change Birmingham is the youngest city in Europe Diversity Super diversity and super connectivity are strengths for the city Employment Below average employment rate of 63% (UK av. 71%) But above average employment growth rate of +1.1% (UK av. of +0.8%) Relationships with other UK towns and cities London and the rest Liverpool-Manchester Newcastle-Sunderland-Gateshead Birmingham-Solihull Governance and vision Liveability People are attracted by culture and entertainment, not just work 33 Connectivity HS2
  • 34. British Science Festival Research Themes Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism Urban Form & Infrastructure Urban Governance Science of cities 34
  • 35. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism British Science Festival Living in cities Science of cities Urban Form & Infrastructure Urban Governance 35
  • 36. 115 105 95 85 75 65 55 The population will continue to increase. Uncertainty regarding how much higher the population will be by 2065. UK will potentially be EU’s most populous country by 2060. Increasing population 80.6M 64.5M 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 British Science Festival Millions Variant projection High Population High Migration High Fertiliy High Life Expectancy Principal Low Life Expectancy Low Fertility Low Migration Low Population 36 Source: ONS (2012)
  • 37. Increasingly diverse population, across the UK. By 2065, most UK cities will have levels of ethnic diversity similar to levels currently experienced in Birmingham. This is not a new phenomenon. UK cities have long had continuously changing and diversifying demographic profiles. British Science Festival Increasing diversity How do we develop cities to prevent the marginalisation and exclusion of groups of their residents? 37 Image: iStockphoto
  • 38. 2.6% DECREASE 15-29S British Science Festival Ageing population By 2065, there will be a major increase in the number of people aged over 75 in the UK. Ageing in cities is slower than elsewhere. Significant impact on the design and operation of our towns and cities. 8% INCREASE 75+ 0.8% INCREASE 65-75S CHANGES IN THE PROPORTION OF AGE COHORT GROUPS OF THE UK POPULATION 2014-2065 38
  • 39. British Science Festival Ageing population How should cities be adapted to provide attractive living and working environments for the elderly? Could we reinvent the family home? 39 Image: Patrick Vale, RIBA (2013)
  • 40. British Science Festival Where will people live? There are distinctive age-related migration patterns. The trend for older people to move to coastal towns is expected to continue. Graduate talent, age 20-30 predominantly moves to London. Majority of people leaving London (pre-retirement) move to Greater South East region. Where will people choose to live in the future? At what point during their life? 40 Centre for Cities, 2014 Net migration in and out of London, 2009-2012
  • 41. British Science Festival Liveability is key 41 Image: London Legacy Development Corporation
  • 42. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism British Science Festival Urban Economies Science of cities Urban Form & Infrastructure Urban Governance 42
  • 43. British Science Festival Changing future of work New technologies will change the geographies of production. 3D printing ICT continues to change travel patterns and enables distance working-living lifestyles The rise of ‘third spaces’ for people to meet, communicate and work will continue: e.g. coffee shops as a working environment ‘coffices’ 43 Image: Jonathan Juursema/CC BY-SA 3.0
  • 44. British Science Festival Evolving skills & education Skills base is hugely important to the adaptability of our cities. Increasing skills gaps are reported. E.g. coding. Increasing numbers of older and ethnically diverse workforce to be included in employment. What skills and knowledge should we invest in now to enable the urban economies of 2050 onwards? How will UK cities cooperatively enhance UK’s competitiveness? 44 Image: Alfrmoldavie/CC BY-SA 3.0
  • 45. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism British Science Festival Urban Metabolism Science of cities Urban Form & Infrastructure Urban Governance 45
  • 46. 46 British Science Festival Urban Metabolism Cities consume huge amounts of materials and resources. Cities potentially offer more resource-efficient living than non-cities. Major issues of vulnerability and risk to disruptions in supply chains. Image: Guy Erwood
  • 47. British Science Festival Reduced water use By 2050 parts of the UK could experience an annual reduction in river flows of 15%, and as much as 80% in some catchments during the summer. There will, however, be heavier rainfall in winters. Coupled with population growth, this will increase water demand in hotter seasons, with greatest water stress projected in the populous Greater South East. 47
  • 48. British Science Festival Changing energy generation The UK is currently a net importer of energy and exposed to vulnerabilities to supply disruptions. UK cities will increasingly: • Integrate decentralised modes of energy generation. • Deploy smart grids linked into smart meters and smart appliances. • Develop zero carbon homes and building to reduce the energy footprint of the built environment. 48 Image: Guerito/CC BY-NC 2.0
  • 49. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism British Science Festival Urban Form & Infrastructure Science of cities Urban Form & Infrastructure Urban Governance 49
  • 50. 50 British Science Festival Increasing degrees of integration and interdependency Electricity, waste, transport and water infrastructure will exchange resources and information across sector boundaries. Improved efficiency and quality of service provision. Reductions in the enormous amounts of waste we produce. Image: Ine Steenmans
  • 51. British Science Festival New types of mobility We will use smaller-scale, autonomous, low-carbon personal transport. The bicycle will remain popular! 51 Image: Hawkins Brown
  • 52. High speed and high capacity rail connections between more of the UK’s cities will crucially impact economic and social development. 52 British Science Festival Increased connectivity Image: ARUP
  • 53. Much of the spatial layout of cities will be the same – it is highly durable. City centres will have re-urbanised – UK cities will see higher densities of development. Denser, compacter and greener urban forms will have huge impacts on people’s health and sense of belonging. If 75% of those currently failing to meet minimum daily exercise levels did meet recommended levels of walking, £675 million could be saved per year. British Science Festival Image: Space Syntax 53 Influence of urban form
  • 54. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism 54 British Science Festival Urban Governance Science of cities Urban Form & Infrastructure Urban Governance
  • 55. 55 British Science Festival Diverse urban governance People will retain a sense of national identity but will increasingly affiliate with the city within which they live. Many young and ethnic minority groups already have such city-centric sense of belonging. How will the increasingly diverse city manage effective and equitable representation for all?
  • 56. 56 British Science Festival City leadership Cities will likely have greater autonomy in their decision-making. We will likely have an even greater diversity of governance arrangements in cities. This diversity will better reflect their individual cultures and histories – not all of our cities voted for mayors! Who makes decisions? How does city leadership need to evolve? What tools does leadership need?
  • 57. 57 British Science Festival City regions as units Metropolitan areas can yield ineffective spatial units for service provision, e.g. in transport, education. City-regions support cross-boundary coordination across large urban areas. They will significantly influence future forms of city governance structures. They are, however, difficult to define. How do we balance enhanced accountability of smaller units of governance and the difficulty in coordinating or achieving consensus on bigger issues across a city-region? Image: M J Richardson/CC BY-SA 2.0
  • 58. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism 58 British Science Festival Science of Cities Science of cities Urban Form & Infrastructure Urban Governance
  • 59. New age of data & technology brings potential to improve design and operation of cities. 59 British Science Festival The Internet of Things Things as well as people are highly connected, yielding ‘Big Data’. This will not be without issues: Privacy, Democracy? How to integrate technocratic and democratic cities? Draft
  • 60. 60 British Science Festival Experience of the city will change Augmented reality, seamless mobility and mobile social networking will be part of our everyday movements and life. Image: 20fourlabs.com
  • 61. 61 British Science Festival Real-time engaging of citizens The role of citizens will change. Citizen will enjoy more direct involvement in discussions around urban spaces. Real-time data analysis will enable us to manage cities with greater responsiveness. Reactions to policies, announcements will be gauged closer to real-time.
  • 62. Living in cities 62 British Science Festival But it is all interrelated! Urban Metabolism Urban Form & Infrastructure Urban Economies Urban Governance Science of cities CITIES
  • 63. 63 British Science Festival Interrelatedness The nature of the city of 2065’s challenges and opportunities is one of interrelatedness. Some issues continually emerge from these relationships of influence: quality of life, competitiveness, sustainability, resilience. Do we have the data and skills to better plan for the future of such interrelated cities?
  • 64. 64 British Science Festival Visions for 2065: Digital City
  • 65. 65 British Science Festival Visions for 2065: Liveable City
  • 66. British Science Festival “My purpose is to inquire into the influence which the progress of modern science and industry may exercise upon the planning, and particularly upon the aspect, of the Cities of the Future… The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily susceptible to transformation and adornment than the Cities of Yesterday.” Eugene Hénard (1910) 66
  • 67. @uksciencechief www.gov.uk/go-science Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through go-science@bis.gsi.gov.uk.

Editor's Notes

  1. I should start by saying a few words about my role as Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA), which is formally to “Advise on all aspects of science, engineering, technology and social science in relation to all aspects of Government policy.”
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  5. Future of Cities project: In order to answer these questions we need an evidence base. This is being compiled by engaging with a broad range of stakeholders – cities themselves, experts and government departments. To build the evidence base we are: Identifying challenges and opportunities facing UK cities Exploring future development trajectories In this process we need to consider: Issues at both at the national and local level. Evidence that looks beyond siloes and see whole systems picture. Evidence that looks at the situation now as well as 50 years into the future, towards 2065. The evidence base will then be used to inform decisions that will shape the long-term future of UK cities. The evidence is drawn together under 6 key themes: Living in Cities; Urban Economies; Urban Metabolism; Urban Form & Infrastructure; Governance; Science of Cities. I’m now going to share with you some of the emerging findings under these themes.
  6. Critically, as something that is a step further than previous Foresight projects, this project is spending much time engaging with its wider stakeholder community. City visits have played a very important part in our evidence collection. Cities we have visited: Cambridge, Newcastle, London, Liverpool, Manchester, Lancaster, Cardiff, Belfast, Derry~Londonderry, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Oxford, (Milton Keynes,) Leeds, Sheffield, Nottingham, Leicester and Derby. ALSO: Oxford Student Meeting and Birmingham School Visit
  7. From the cities seminars, we have clustered their feedback and issues underpinning the three themes on the slides were raised by almost all of them. 16/17 groups had social disparities and work as major features of their discussions 15/17 had transport – this was sometimes linked to social disparity as connectivity was seen as a way to increase equality So far, Newcastle, Lancaster and… have submitted their proposals
  8. From the cities seminars, we have clustered their feedback and issues underpinning the three themes on the slides were raised by almost all of them. 16/17 groups had social disparities and work as major features of their discussions 15/17 had transport – this was sometimes linked to social disparity as connectivity was seen as a way to increase equality So far, Newcastle, Lancaster and… have submitted their proposals
  9. The map on the facing page highlights local authorities in England with projected above average (greater than 11 per cent) household growth to 2021, and areas of water stress. Those areas where household growth is projected to be particularly strong overlap with areas that already have serious levels of water stress, such as Greater London, the South East and the East of England. In addition, climate change is expected to result in significant reductions in river flows and groundwater recharge. As a result, the UK Government’s Foresight programme report on Land Use Futures recommended that the implications for water resources need to be factored more systematically into decision-making on land use and land management changes, and the allocation of land for development should consider water availability, na
  10. TransportBuzz: an interactive transport sentiment analysis map by TransportAPI: http:transportapi.com
  11. TransportBuzz: an interactive transport sentiment analysis map by TransportAPI: http:transportapi.com