Lecture 2
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Special Lecture on Economic and Political Development in Africa After Colonization. College of Social Science, Hanyang University.
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Lecture 2
- 1. Economic and Political Development in Africa After Colonization Hanyang University Ben Katoka (PhD)
- 2. Outline 1. Understanding the root causes of African Underdevelopment since the 1960s 2. Economic and political development in Africa since the 1950s 3. A brief discussion of Botswana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa 4. Political vs. economic development: Approaching the dilemma in Africa 5. Discussion 2
- 3. 1. Understanding the root causes of African Underdevelopment since the 1960s Poor countries are not located only in Africa, but… 3 Remark: This PPT contains elements taken from Professor Ben Olken’s lecture on Foundations of Development Policy (2016) 1. Are not randomly distributed throughout the world 2. Are hot; 3. Have been colonized by the Europeans
- 4. 1. Understanding the root causes of African Underdevelopment since the 1960s • About the weather (not always true): Singapore is hot and rich; Central Asian countries are cold and poor • About colonization: Thailand and Ethiopia were not colonized but are poor; the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia were colonized but are rich. • So, why is Africa underdeveloped? 4
- 5. 1. Understanding the root causes of African Underdevelopment since the 1960s There are lots of explanations to why African countries are underdeveloped. • Slave trade • Colonialism • Ethnic diversity • Geography (Climate; temperature) • Abundance in natural resources • Lack of democracy; bad governance • Others. 5
- 6. 1. Understanding the root causes of African Underdevelopment since the 1960s 6 Slave trade: “The African countries that are the poorest today are the one from which the most slaves were taken” (Nunn, 2008). Because slavery involved theft, bribery, use of brutal force, which in turn led to increase in corruption of state institutions, and impeded formation of large states (Nunn, 2008)
- 7. 1. Understanding the root causes of African Underdevelopment since the 1960s 7
- 8. 1. Understanding the root causes of African Underdevelopment since the 1960s Colonialism: “Settler mortality Hypothesis” (see, Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, 2001) > In place where the Europeans colonizers wanted to live themselves, colonizers set up good institutions to replicate Europe… In places where they wanted to extract resources, colonizers set up institutions to allow themselves to extract resources… 8
- 9. 1. Understanding the root causes of African Underdevelopment since the 1960s 9 Ethnic diversity: “Severity and duration of violence (i.e., state-driven conflict and violence against civilians) are higher in the historical homelands of portioned groups; Military interventions from neighboring countries are much more likely in the homelands of split groups; Partitioned ethnicities are systematically discriminated from the national government and are more likely to participate in ethnic civil wars”. Military Source: Michalopous and Papaionnou (2015)
- 10. 1. Understanding the root causes of African Underdevelopment since the 1960s Geography (temperature, climate): “Temperature affects economic growth Hypothesis” (see, Jones and Olken, 2011) > Hot countries tend to have lower economic growth in poor countries… because hot temperature affects industrial output, agriculture, etc. 10
- 11. 1. Understanding the root causes of African Underdevelopment since the 1960s 11 Abundance in natural resources: “Countries richly endowed with non-renewable natural resources, in particular oil and minerals, tend to display low level of economic development” (Sachs and Warner, 1995). This is because, natural resource extraction is likely to lead to conflict, corruption, and other adverse economic effects. Resource Curse hypothesis Source: Michalopous and Papaionnou (2015)
- 12. 2. Economic and political development in Africa since the 1950s 12 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 GDP per capita at constant 2010 prices $ Southern Asia Africa Southeast Asia World average Southern America Korea 2010-2016 2000-2009 1990-1999 1980-1989 1970-1979 2010-2016 2000-2009 1990-1999 1980-1989 1970-1979 2010-2016 2000-2009 1990-1999 1980-1989 1970-1979 2010-2016 2000-2009 1990-1999 1980-1989 1970-1979 2010-2016 2000-2009 1990-1999 1980-1989 1970-1979 2010-2016 2000-2009 1990-1999 1980-1989 1970-1979 Source: UNCTAD Stats Constant 2010 prices ($) GDP per capita in Africa and other developing regions, by decade (1970-2016)
- 13. 2. Economic and political development in Africa since the 1950s 13 0 .02 .04 .06 Coups d'Etat (magnitude) 2010-2016 2000-2009 1990-1999 1980-1989 1970-1979 1960-1969 1950-1959 1940-1949 Source: Polity IV Magnitude of Coups d'Etat in Africa, 1940-2016
- 14. 2. Economic and political development in Africa since the 1950s 14 0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1 Coups d'Etat (magnitude) Botswana Cameroon Cape Verde Djibouti Eritrea Gabon Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Senegal Serbia South Africa South Sudan Sudan-North Swaziland Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Libya Tunisia Ivory Coast Somalia Rwanda Gambia Equatorial Guinea Egypt Liberia Guinea Congo Kinshasa Mali Ethiopia Chad Congo Brazzaville Niger Togo Uganda Lesotho Central African Republic Comoros Burundi Sudan Benin Burkina Faso Ghana Mauritania Sierra Leone Guinea-Bissau Nigeria Source: Polity IV Africa, 1940-2016 Top and Bottom Countries with the highest magnitude of Coups d'Etat
- 15. 2. Economic and political development in Africa since the 1950s 15 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 Number of attempted (but ultimately unsuccessful) coups Botswana Cape Verde Egypt Malawi Mauritius Namibia Rwanda Serbia South Africa Sudan-North Tunisia Zimbabwe Libya Burkina Faso Cameroon Gabon Niger Senegal Kenya Swaziland Mozambique Morocco Nigeria Tanzania Uganda Eritrea Ethiopia Djibouti Somalia Liberia Zambia Congo Kinshasa Mali Mauritania Gambia Lesotho Guinea Madagascar Sierra Leone Equatorial Guinea Benin Central African Republic Ghana Ivory Coast Congo Brazzaville Togo Comoros Burundi South Sudan Chad Sudan Guinea-Bissau Source: Polity IV 1940-2016 Top and Bottom Countries by Number of attempted (but ultimately unsuccessful) coups
- 16. 2. Economic and political development in Africa since the 1950s 16 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Average GDP growth, 2010-2016 Libya South Sudan Central African Republic Equatorial Guinea Cabo Verde Tunisia South Africa Comoros Burundi Madagascar Sudan Gambia, The Swaziland Egypt, Arab Rep. Algeria Morocco Mauritius Angola Congo, Rep. Guinea-Bissau Lesotho Mali Benin Nigeria Malawi Chad Liberia Mauritania Senegal Cameroon Sao Tome and Principe Guinea Togo Namibia Djibouti Gabon Sierra Leone Botswana Uganda Seychelles Eritrea Burkina Faso Zambia Kenya Cote d'Ivoire Niger Mozambique Tanzania Congo, Dem. Rep. Ghana Rwanda Zimbabwe Ethiopia Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Average 2010-2016 Top and Bottom Performers in Yearly GDP growth in Africa
- 17. 2. Economic and political development in Africa since the 1950s 17 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 GDP per capita, Constant 2010 Prices ($) Burundi Congo, Dem. Rep. Liberia Central African Republic Madagascar Ethiopia SierraLeone Mozambique Malawi Eritrea Togo Gambia, The Guinea-Bissau BurkinaFaso Uganda Rwanda Guinea Mali Comoros Tanzania Benin Zimbabwe Chad South Sudan Senegal Kenya Sao TomeandPrincipe Mauritania Lesotho Coted'Ivoire Cameroon Djibouti Zambia Ghana Sudan Nigeria Egypt, Arab Rep. Congo, Rep. Morocco Cabo Verde Angola Swaziland Tunisia Algeria Namibia Botswana South Africa Libya Mauritius Gabon Seychelles Equatorial Guinea Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2010-2016, Constant 2010 Prices ($) Top and Bottom Performers in Average GDP per capita in Africa 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 GDP per capita, Constant 2010 Prices ($) Burundi Congo, Dem. Rep. Liberia Central African Republic Madagascar Ethiopia SierraLeone Mozambique Malawi Eritrea Togo Gambia, The Guinea-Bissau BurkinaFaso Uganda Rwanda Guinea Mali Comoros Tanzania Benin Zimbabwe Chad South Sudan Senegal Kenya Sao TomeandPrincipe Mauritania Lesotho Coted'Ivoire Cameroon Djibouti Zambia Ghana Sudan Nigeria Egypt, Arab Rep. Congo, Rep. Morocco Cabo Verde Angola Swaziland Tunisia Algeria Namibia Botswana South Africa Libya Mauritius Gabon Seychelles Equatorial Guinea Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2010-2016, Constant 2010 Prices ($) Top and Bottom Performers in Average GDP per capita in Africa
- 18. 2. Economic and political development in Africa since the 1950s 18 0 20 40 60 Individual Using the Internet (% of population) Eritrea Somalia Niger Burundi Congo, Dem. Rep. Chad Madagascar Guinea-Bissau Central African Republic Liberia Sierra Leone Guinea South Sudan Mali Togo Malawi Ethiopia Tanzania Comoros Benin Congo, Rep. Burkina Faso Angola Mauritania Mozambique Djibouti Rwanda Cameroon Cote d'Ivoire Gambia, The Kenya Zimbabwe Senegal Lesotho Uganda Equatorial Guinea Zambia Libya Namibia Nigeria Ghana Swaziland Sudan Sao Tome and Principe Botswana Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. Gabon Cabo Verde Mauritius South Africa Tunisia Seychelles Morocco Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Average Yearly Individuals Using the Internet (% of population), 2010-2016 Top and Bottom Performers in Internet Access in Africa
- 19. 2. Economic and political development in Africa since the 1950s 19 0 50 100 150 200 Total population (millions) Seychelles Sao Tome and Principe Cabo Verde Comoros Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Mauritius Swaziland Guinea-Bissau Gabon Gambia, The Lesotho Botswana Namibia Mauritania Liberia Eritrea Central African Republic Congo, Rep. Libya Sierra Leone Togo Burundi Benin Tunisia Rwanda South Sudan Guinea Chad Somalia Senegal Zimbabwe Zambia Mali Malawi Burkina Faso Niger Cameroon Cote d'Ivoire Madagascar Angola Ghana Mozambique Morocco Sudan Uganda Algeria Kenya Tanzania South Africa Congo, Dem. Rep. Egypt, Arab Rep. Ethiopia Nigeria Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Total Population (millions) Top and Bottom Country by Population Size
- 20. 3. A brief discussion of Botswana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa 20 Source: Michalopous and Papaionnou (2015)
- 21. 3. A brief discussion of Botswana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa Coups d’Etat in Nigeria, 1960-2016 21Source: Polity IV Date success leader deaths 1-Oct-62 3 Chief Enahoro, Samuel Ikoka, Aye Adabaujo 0 15-Jan-66 1 Maj. Nzeogwu 10 29-Jul-66 1 Lt. Col Yakubu Gowon; Hausa army officers 30 29-Jul-75 1 Gen. Murtala Ramat Mohammed 0 13-Feb-76 2 LTC Bukar Dimka 6 31-Dec-83 1 MG Mohammed Buhari 25 Oct-84 3 unspecified 0 27-Aug-85 1 MG Ibrahim Babangida 1 Dec-85 3 incl. MG Vatsa 0 22-Apr-90 2 Maj. Gideon Okar 10 17-Nov-93 1 Gen. Sanni Abacha 0 Mar-95 3 incl. Gen. Obasanjo 0 Dec-97 3 incl. LTG Diya, MG Adisa, MG Olarenwaju 0 30-Mar-04 3 Maj. Hamza al-Mustapha; Lt-Col. Mohammed ibn Umar Adeka; Onwuchekwa Okorie; Navy Com.Yakubu Kudambo 0
- 22. 3. A brief discussion of Botswana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa Coups d’Etat in Ethiopia, 1960-2016 22Source: Polity IV Date success leader deaths 14-Dec-60 2 Gen. Mengistu Newaye, Germain Newaye, Col. Workineh Gebeheyu, Getachew Bekele 331 12-Sep-74 1 Derg; Andom Banti 999 23-Nov-74 1 Derg: Gen. Tafari Banti, Major Mengistu 60 3-Feb-77 1 Lt. Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam 999 Feb-77 2 unspecified 10 16-May-89 2 MG Merid Negusie, MG Amha Desta 400 25/Avril/2009 3 Brig-Gen. Asamnew Tsige; Berhanu Nega, Ginbot 7 Movement 0
- 23. 3. A brief discussion of Botswana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa Infant mortality rate versus Regulatory Quality score in Africa, 2015 23Source: Ben Katoka (2017)
- 24. 3. A brief discussion of Botswana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa 2015 Corruption Perception Index Scores in Africa and other regions 24Source: Ben Katoka (2017) BWA CPV SYC RWA MUS NAM GHA LSO SEN ZAF STP BFA ZMB BEN LBR MLI GAB NERETHCIV TGO MWI MRT MOZ TZA SLEGMB MDG CMR COM NGAGIN KEN UGACAF COG TCD COD BDI ZWE ERI GNB AGO SDN MYS THA IDN PHL VNM LAO MMR KHM Denmark Finland Sweden New Zealand Netherlands Norway Switzerland Singapore Hong Kong Japan France Taiwan Korea (South) China 20406080 100 Country Sub-Saharan Africa South-East Asia Advanced economies
- 25. 3. A brief discussion of Botswana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa Voice and Accountability in Africa and other regions, 2015 25Source: Ben Katoka (2017) AGO BEN BWA BFA CPV CMR BDI CAF TCD COM COG GNQ ETH ERI CIV DRC GAB GHA GIN GNB GMB KEN LSO MDG MLI MRT MWI MUS MOZ NAM NER NGA SEN SLE STP RWA SYC ZAF SWZ TZA UGA SDN TGO ZMB ZWE BRN KHM IDN LAO MYS MMR PHL VNM THA Denmark Finland Hong Kong Japan France Norway New Zealand Sweden Switzerland Taiwan China Korea Singapore -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1-.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Sub-Saharan Africa South-East Asia Advanced economies
- 26. 3. A brief discussion of Botswana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa 26
- 27. 4. Political vs. economic development: Approaching the dilemma in Africa 5. Further discussion 27