There are two mechanisms by which technologies affect society: bundling and unbundling. This re-packaging resets the way companies are structured leading to reversal of incumbent position relative to entrants.
The Personal Computer unbundled the mainframe while the phone and tablet unbundled the PC. Microsoft bundled office work and the Internet bundled communications. Google unbundled information access and Apple bundled experiences. Amazon bundled retail while Facebook bundled media. The car in the 20th century bundled transportation.
Will the availability of new technologies in the 21st century enable a great unbundling of transportation?
12. ANTHROPOLOGICAL INVARIANTS
1 TO 1.5 HR/DAY SPENT IN TRANSPORTATION
15% OF DISPOSABLE INCOME
INDEPENDENT OF:
EPOCH, COUNTRY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ACCESS TO AND USE OF VARIOUS TECHNOLOGY
SPATIAL SETTLEMENT PATTERN
Source: Grübler 1990
13. US TIME SPENT IN A VEHICLE
Average time spent in a
private vehicle in a typical
day: 56 min.
Source: NHTS, 2009 survey
15. ”
“
Understand JTBD as context and source of innovation
FOR MOTORISTS, CONGESTION IS A
BIGGER PROBLEM THAN ANY DEFICIENCY
IN THE VEHICLE.
16. WHY WAS
GERMANY LATE IN
ADOPTING THE
CAR?
IS NON-CONSUMPTION
CAUSED BY NON-PRODUCTION?
17. THE GERMAN ANOMALY
Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants
0
100
200
300
400
1900
1902
1904
1906
1908
1910
1912
1914
1916
1918
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
GERMANY
FRANCE/UK
USA
ITALY
18. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants
0
3.5
7
10.5
14
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
FRANCE EUROPE
GERMANY EUROPE
UNITED KINGDOM EUROPE
UNITED STATES NORTH AMERICA
SWITZERLAND EUROPE
CANADA NORTH AMERICA
GERMANY
FRANCE/UK
USA
CANADA
19. WHY DID HITLER ASK PORSCHE TO BUILD A PEOPLE’S CAR?
US vs. German Automobile Production 1922-1939
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
AUTO PRODUCTION IN GERMANY
US AUTO PRODUCTION
USA
GERMANY
20. GERMANY WAS NOT A LAGGARD BEFORE THE CAR (OR AFTER)
Rail Line Length (Percent of Maximum)
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
1800
1806
1812
1818
1824
1830
1836
1842
1848
1854
1860
1866
1872
1878
1884
1890
1896
1902
1908
1914
1920
1926
1932
1938
1944
1950
1956
1962
1968
1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
Geographical/route lengths of line open at the end of the year. Narrow gauge lines generally
included, but mountain railways, purely industrial lines not open to the public, and urban systems
generally excluded. Mitchell (1998) via NBER CHAT Dataset
Passenger Journeys by Rail
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
1800
1806
1812
1818
1824
1830
1836
1842
1848
1854
1860
1866
1872
1878
1884
1890
1896
1902
1908
1914
1920
1926
1932
1938
1944
1950
1956
1962
1968
1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
Thousands of passenger journeys by railway. Free passengers typically excluded but may be included for some countries. Mitchell (1998) via NB
GERMANY
USA
UK
GERMANY
USA
21. TELEGRAM & TELEPHONE
Number of Telegrams Sent
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
1800
1806
1812
1818
1824
1830
1836
1842
1848
1854
1860
1866
1872
1878
1884
1890
1896
1902
1908
1914
1920
1926
1932
1938
1944
1950
1956
1962
1968
1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
Telephone Adoption
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
1800
1806
1812
1818
1824
1830
1836
1842
1848
1854
1860
1866
1872
1878
1884
1890
1896
1902
1908
1914
1920
1926
1932
1938
1944
1950
1956
1962
1968
1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
Number of mainline telephone lines connecting a customer's equipment to the public switched
telephone network as of year end. Mitchell (1998), WORLD BANK (2007)
GERMANY
USA
GERMANY
USA UK
30. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants
0
50
100
1900
1902
1904
1906
1908
1910
1912
1914
1916
1918
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
US5%
UK/France5%
Germany/Italy5%
22 yr. 22 yr.
Japan5%
China5%
Korea5%
21 yr. 20 yr.
FORD
GM
RENAULT
CITROEN
BRITISH LEYLAND
VW
FIAT
TOYOTA HYUNDAI/KIA SAIC ET. AL.
Wartime delay
LOW-END ENTRIES
LEADING TO
MARKET
LEADERSHIP
TATA ET. AL.
India5%
20 yr. ?
UNDER EACH RISE WAS A LOW END DISRUPTIVE ENTRY
31. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants
0
50
100
1900
1902
1904
1906
1908
1910
1912
1914
1916
1918
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
US5%
UK/France5%
Germany/Italy5%
22 yr. 22 yr.
Japan5%
China5%
Korea5%
21 yr. 20 yr.
FORD
GM
RENAULT
CITROEN
BRITISH LEYLAND
VW
FIAT TOYOTA HYUNDAI/KIA SAIC ET. AL.
Wartime delay
LOW-END ENTRIES
LEADING TO
MARKET
LEADERSHIP
TATA ET. AL.
India5%
20 yr. ?
UNDER EACH RISE WAS A LOW END DISRUPTIVE ENTRY
WHO AMONG THE
NON-CONSUMERS WILL LEAD NEXT?
32. CAR PRODUCTION FAVORS INCUMBENTS
• Automobiles represent freedom and economic growth
• Nearly every car trip ends with either an economic transaction of a benefit to
quality of life
• Auto industry is the single greatest engine of economic growth
• 30% growth (1995-2005)
• 9 million people directly employed, 50 million indirectly, 5% of all manuf.
• $5 Trillion from manufacturing, $15 Trillion inclusive of services
Source: Grübler 1990
33. NOT GOING ANYWHERE
NEW CAR SALES
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
EU 15 COUNTRIES + EFTA
EUROPE NEW MEMBERS
RUSSIA, TURKEY & OTHER EUROPE
NAFTA
CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA
AFRICA
ASIA/OCEANIA/MIDDLE EAST
40. THE COMBINATORIAL DILEMMA
• There are 1.2 billion cars in use (set to grow to 2 billion)
• There are 50 major automobile producers (China rising)
• There are 200 major mobile service companies (w/ moats)
• Each car is in use 1 hr/day (1.2 billion vehicle-hours/day)
• Each car is driven about 30 mi/day
• A vehicle can generate 2 to 10 Gb/mi.
41. LATE CUSTOMERS CHANGE THE
PRODUCT. EARLY CUSTOMERS SEEK
TO BE CHANGED BY IT.
INTERESTING
QUESTIONS
42. Henry Ford’s first car, the Quadricycle 1896World’s first car, the Motorwagen 1886