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Risk Management Framework

  Process, Tools & Techniques to
     Minimise Risk Exposure

       Anand Subramaniam
“If you are never scared or embarrassed or
       hurt, it means you never take any
                   chances.”

                                  - Julia Sorel




                                              2
Highlights
   Risk Exposure
   Project, Program, Project Portfolio Risks
   Risk Management – Overview
   Risk Management – Framework
   Risk Management – Governance
   Risk - Org. Policy, Tolerance, Maturity Level, Ad-
    hoc Reporting
   Categorising Risk
   Risk Analysis - Qualitative & Quantitative
   Risk Response Management
   Monitoring & Controlling Risks
                                                     3
Risk Exposure
Risk !!




          5
Risk - Challenges & Expectations
                                     Stakeholders                       Drivers
                               Citizens                     Mission & Objectives
                               Visitors                     Trust & Reputations
                               Regulators                   Asset & Capital Management
                               Government Agencies          Expenditures & Budget
                               Others                       Regulations
                                                      Challenges
                        Digital Divide                                Volume
                        Social, Cultural and Educational Issues       Cost Management
                        Existing Infrastructure                       Regulatory
                        Legacy Systems, Interoperability               Requirements

                                                   Expectations
Delivering Value         Managing Cost         Managing Risk         Change Mngt            Compliance
   Availability          Project              Confidentiality      Project / Program     Regulatory
   Accessibility          Management           Security              Implementation         Compliance
   Infrastructure        Program              Data Integrity       Change                Vendor Risk
                          Management                                 Management             Management
    Reliability                                  Applications
                         Project Portfolio                          Interoperability      Monitoring
    Governance             Management           Privacy                                      Outsourced
                                                                      Control Monitoring
   Innovation                                  Identity & Access                            Operations
                                                 Management
                                                Incident Response


                                                                                                            6
Risk Exposure Areas

 Concept      Technology   Sys Dev & Prod & Deploy Opns &
Refinement     Develop       Demo                  Support


Opportunity     Capture      Pre-     Proposal Dev    Post-
Assessment     Team Dev    Proposal                  Submit




                                                              7
Risk Exposure due to..




                         8
Risk – Plan vs. Actual Performance

                                                        Poor Risk
                                                io ns   Management
                                        ct at
                                    x pe
Performance




                             e rE                       Technical
                            m                           Inability
                        s to
                   Cu

                                         ce
                                     rman
                                Perfo
                     Actual

                                           Time
                                                                     9
Risk Management Realities…

Insurance Not Purchased       Insurance Not Available

      Political Risk                 War / Strike
     Environmental                  Reputational
  Advertiser’s Liability         Terrorism Biological
  Professional Liability         Nuclear / Radiation
  E-Commerce Liability       Regulatory Fines & Penalties
 Certain lines of Products    Poor Business Judgment
   Patent Infringement        Supply Chain Interruption
      Product recall            Loss of Market Share
       Non-Owned                 Breach of Contract
        Terrorism                 Global Pandemic
          Liability                     Fraud



                                                            10
Project, Program, Project Portfolio
              Risks
Integrated Risk Management
                                           Life Cycle &
                                           Environmen
                                                              Communi-
Scope                        Integration    t Variables
                                                               cation
                                             Ideas,
             Expectation                   Directives,
             s Feasibility                    Data
                                           Exchange



             Requiremen        Projec      Availability,       Human
Quality                                    Productivity
             t Standards       t Risk                         Resources

                                               Cost
               Time
                                            Objectives,
             Objectives,
                                            Restraints
             Restraints


                             Contract /      Services,
Time                                         Materials:               Cost
                              Procure       Performanc
                                                 e
                                                           Source: Wideman, Max R., ed.,


                                                                                   12
Project Risk - Exposure / Impact

Internal           Schedul                                    Resourc
 Risks                           Financial      Quality
                      e                                          e




       Project                   Project                   Project
      Objectives                Planning                  Execution



Externa                          Integra-      Procure-      Commun
                    Scope
l Risks                            tion          ment         i-cation




       Opportunities for Tradeoffs - Resulting from Risk Analyses
                                                                         13
Project - Opportunities / Risks

     Opportunities                                  Risks
• Identifies gaps in realisation of    • Fragmented project plans
  strategic objectives                 • Poorly defined project mission &
• Escalates current risks and            tasks
  identifies potential risks earlier   • No clear process for escalating
• Ensures proper communications          risks to senior management
  to relevant stakeholders             • Insufficient reporting to support
• Improves monitoring and control        top-management decisions
  of projects                          • Ineffective enforcement of project
• Mediates issue resolution              controls and policies
• Increases efficiency in tracking     • Conflict between line and project
  progress of projects                   managers
• Integrates project plans for all     • Projects do not meet deadlines
  projects – standardises progress       and / or milestones
  reporting                            • Lack of standardised reports and
                                         reporting frameworks



                                                                              14
Projects & PPM – Risk Exposure
                Scope                                   Goals

       Risk                                                        Risk

                          Risk                 Risk




                                                       Project
Risk            Project            Risk                Portfolio     Risk
              Managemen                               Managemen
                   t                                       t



                                                                   Process
Time                        Cost          Culture
                                                                   Maturity

                                                                       15
Risks - Project Manager’s Role
 Understand business case and project context
 Baseline the risk register
 Oversee risk management activities
   Embed risk thinking into project review meetings
   Ensure risk response actions are carried out (threats,
    issues & opportunities)
   Utilise risk management reserve efficiently
 Manage stakeholder expectations
 Deliver to time, cost and quality


                                                         16
Program Manager’s Challenge
                                         Shareholder /
                                         Stakeholder
                                         Value
                    Programme &
                                               What are
                    Operational                the risks?


                    Benefits
Project                     What are
                            the risks?
Deliverables
       What are
       the risks?




                                                            17
Portfolio Risk Management
                           Executive Board




                                                          Guidance
              Programmes                     Operations
Information




                             Functional
                Projects                      Logistics


               Contractors                Contractors


              Supply chain                Supply chain
                                                                18
Risk Management - Overview
What is Risk?
                       There is a
GIVEN               POSSIBILITY that,
                                                         Will
        Condition                       Consequence
                                                        Occur


               •     Must be a FACT or perceived to be FACT
               •     Must be REALITY BASED
               •     Can have NO uncertainty attached


Must be ACTIONABLE

ONE condition and ONE consequence per statement


                                                                20
Risk Process – Conceptual Overview
                                 Establish the context
 Communicate and Consult




                                     Identify risks




                                                         Monitor and Review
                                    Analyse risks

                                    Evaluate risks

                           Assess risks

                                      Treat risks




                                                                              21
Risk Elements
                 TOOLS & TECHNIQUES

                 Scaleable, fit for purpose
PROCESSES
                       PEOPLE & BEHAVIORS
Well defined,
part of normal
work routine,          Management commitment,
 consistently         delivery teams own the risks,
 used across           operations involved early,
   projects               contractors engaged,
                       reward the right behaviors




                                                      22
Risk – Project & Process Elements
  Project Elements                       Process Elements

      Roles &                                  Risk Assessment

   Responsibilities               What is the Scope of the Risk Assessment?
                                     What Adverse Events Can Happen?
                                    How Likely are These Events to Occur?
     Personnel           How Severe Would the Consequences Be if the Events Did Occur?




                                                                                                 Feedback Loops
    Qualifications
                                     Risk Control & Decision Support
Management of Change
                                      What Could Be Done to Control Risks?
                            What Are the Relative Merits of the Risk Control Options?
                           What Set of Activities Best Achieves Risk Management Goals?
  Communications

   Documentation
                                   Performance Monitoring & Feedback

Project Evaluation and    What Improvements are Expected to Result from the Risk Control
                                                    Decisions?
     Improvement             What Measures Best Capture These Expected Outcomes?
                         Are the Selected Risk Control Activities Having the Intended Effect?
                           How Can the Overall Risk Management Process be Improved?


                                                                                                23
Risk Scope

           Requirements/
            Specification




Quality                     Cost




            Schedule



                                   24
Risk Management – Strategy to Execution
                                                       Write
 Perform risk assessment                              Plan
      Risk management plan developed
                                                     Assemble
      Risk assessment team assembled                  Team
      Risk generation process executed
      Risk list rationalised                        Generate
                                                      Risks
      Risks ranked and prioritised
      Response plans written                        Rationalise
                                                         List
      Risk review process established
      Risk review done periodically                   Rank
                                                       Risks

 Institutionalise ongoing risk assessment             Write
    Ongoing risk reviews                            Responses

    Execution of risk response plans if necessary
                                                     Monitor &
                                                      Control


                                                                   25
Risk Management Process - PMBOK




                             Source: PMI


                                    26
Risk Management - Framework
Defining a Risk Framework

                        Goals and Objectives

    Internal                  Timing
     Audit
                            Milestones
Risk
           Executive
Manage                   Team composition
          Management                           Approach and
r
                                               Methodology
                               Tools
    Project
    Sponsor                  Reporting

                        Information Criteria




                                                         28
Risk Framework



   ion




                      Stra
     t
  ecu




                          t
                        egy
Ex


         Iterate &
         Improve




           Tactical


                              29
Risk - Strategy
            Input                       Techniques                    Output
•   Business Strategy             •   Interviews            •   Risk Profile
•   Value Drivers                 •   Questionnaires        •   Risk Organisation Chart
•   Organisation Process          •   Checklist             •   Roles & Responsibilities
•   Define Risk Management        •   Assumption Analysis   •   SWOT Analysis
    Objectives                    •   SWOT template         •   Optimal Network Structure
•   Determine Risk Appetite /                               •   Risk Strategy
    Tolerance                                               •   Risk Register
•   Define Risk Organisation                                •   Risk Policies
•   Perform SWOT Analysis                                   •   Risk Governance Process
•   Design supply chain to
    match Risk Profile
•   Map & Evaluate Current
    Network
•   Analysis – Cost, Inventory
•   Identify & Evaluate
    Alternative Structures

                                                                                      30
Risk - Tactical
            Input                    Techniques                        Output
•   Risk Profile                 • Qualitative Assessment -    • Rank Alternatives
•   Risk Organisation Chart        Probability / Impact        • Risks Related to
•   Roles & Responsibilities       Matrix, Brainstorming,        Contractual Agreements
•   SWOT Analysis                  Cause & Effect Diagrams     • Risk Categorisation
•   Optimal Network Structure    • Quantitative Assessment -   • Ranking of Failure Points
•   Risk Strategy                   FMEA, Simulation,          • Risk Database Populated
•   Risk Register                  Modelling, Diagramming        with Alert Criteria
•   Select Optimal Network         Techniques                  • Alert Process Defined
    Structure                    • Strategies for Negative
•   Identify Failure Points in     and Positive Risks
    the Supply Chain             • Strategies for
•   Prioritise the Failure         Opportunities & Threats
    Points                       • Contingency Response
•   Identify Alternatives          Strategies
•   Define the Alert Criteria    • Risk Management
                                   Information Systems

                                                                                        31
Risk - Execution
            Input                      Techniques                        Output
•   Risk Strategy                •   Status Meeting              • Risk Registers
•   Risk Policies                •   Risk Reassessments          • Recommendation –
•   Risk Governance              •   Risk Audits                   Preventive, Awareness,
•   Risk Register                •   Variance / Trend Analysis     Remediation
•   Rank Alternatives            •   Performance Measures        • Monitor Inherent, Residual
•   Risks Related to             •   Reserve Analysis              & Secondary Risks
    Contractual Agreements       •   Alert Mechanisms            • Evaluate Effectiveness
•   Risk Categorisation          •   Risk Management
•   Ranking of Failure Points        Knowledgebase
•   Risk Database With Alert
    Criteria / Process
•   Performance Reports
•   Collaborate on Risk
    Response Plan
•   Continuously Monitor


                                                                                          32
Knowledge – Capture & Improve


     Continuously
                                Capture
       Improve



                    Lessons
                     Learnt


      Collaborate             Communicate




                                            33
Risk Management – Lessons Learned

     Capture            Communicate                 Collaborate                 Improve
Input                   Input                     Input                    Input
• Detect disruptions    • Communicate             • Review immediate       • Review action plan
  and estimate            impact of                 action and identify      from project
  impact on supply        disruptions               causes                   closure phase
  chain performance
                        Process                   Process                  Process
Process                 • Risk responsible        • Identify alternative   • Review success /
• Identify &              identifies disruption     solutions                failure of solutions
  categorise              & leads meeting         • Select best              implemented
  disruptions             with participants         alternative            • Re-group if
• Record risk in risk   • Distribute reports      • Delegate                 mitigation is
  database                and documents             assignment               unsuccessful
                          from ‘capture’ to                                • Record / update
Output                    ‘closure’               Output                     the solutions
• Disruption list                                 • Project closure
• Risk database         Output                      report                 Output
• Follow-up             • Review action                                    • Updated risk
                          points & follow up                                 database


                                                                                               34
Risk Management - Governance
Risk Management - Governance
                  Portfolio Risk     Program           Project Risk     Contractor Risk
                   Mgmt Plan        Risk Mgmt           Mgmt Plan
   Key                                 Plan
                                                                          Mgmt Plan


Risk Mgmt                                  Initiate Risk
Governance                                     Mgmt
 Document

  Ongoing
Risk Activity                               Plan Risk
                                              Mgmt                              Monitor & Control the
  Discrete
Risk Activity                                                                    Risk Mgmt Process
                                                                               (Includes Learning and
                                                Identify                             Continuous
                                                 Risks                              Improvement)


      Close-out           Control                                     Assess
      Risk Mgmt            Risks       Risk Register                   Risks



                                            Respond
                                            to Risks



                                                                                                   36
Risk Management – Governance Steps

Planning
                     Identification
                                        Assessment
                                                         Analysis
                                                                            Closure


• Methods             • FTAs            • ROI         • Deterministic   • Mitigation
• Resources           • Experts         • ROIC        • Simulation      • Prevention
• Requirements        • FMEAs           • Quantify    • Tech Perf       • Complete info
• Responsibilities    • History         • Tech Perf     Measures        • Critical Items
                      • Program           Measures    • Business Case     & Issues List
                        Documentation                   Analysis
                      • Business Case
                        Analysis

                                                                                     37
Risk – Org. Policy, Tolerance,
  Maturity Level, Reporting
Risk Policy / Escalation Process
Corporate Risks                    Objectives

                                  Risk Appetite
Strategic Risks
                    Risk            Priorities
       +
  Significant     Escalation
                               Strategic Mitigation
Tactical Risks
                                  Authorisation

                                   Behaviour
 Tactical Risks

                                                  39
Example – Risk Tolerance




                           40
Organisation Maturity & Risk Strategies
                    Level 1              Level 2               Level 3               Level 4                  Level 5
   Culture                                                     Increased           Culture becomes        Consistency of
                   Unaware          Early awareness            Awareness             Known and            Past and Future
   and bias                                                                            Uniform                Actions

Technology                         Isolated projects;       More "joined up"         Vision drives        Vision becomes
                     None          initiated from the       thinking, but still
     vision                             bottom up             silo-oriented.           decisions         Competitive Edge

Alignment of                          Weak, early           Understanding            Understanding       Understanding of
 bus. and IT Unknown concept          awareness             and focus at silo
                                                                  level
                                                                                   and focus across
                                                                                   lines of business
                                                                                                           wider scope;
                                                                                                          collaboration
Stakeholder                           First signs of         Stakeholder           Well Understood,          Optimal
  alignment      No alignment         Stakeholder           Analysis, Trade        Drives Decisions         Stakeholder
                                     centricity; silos       Off analysis                                     Benefits
                                                            Early Attempts        Governance model
Governance           None             Becomes a               To resolve           Defines and in       Strong Governance
     model                             concern             Governance issues            Place                 Culture

                  No process         Team-based;           Process integration    Shared processes          End-to-end
    Process                           fragmented;            At department             across                 process
    Integrity     orientation        minimal insight              level             the company             optimisation

                     Weak,             Fragmented;               Strong           Strong functionality Superior functionality;
     IT plan                       limited functionality      functionality         with company-       integrated beyond
                Very fragmented;         and focus             within silos        level integration       the company
        Data      None, poor                                 Focus on silo         Ongoing, Iterative      Competitive
    strategy        quality        Operational focus            quality           Process to maintain      Differentiator
                                                                                       Quality

                                                                                                                      41
Example – Risk Maturity Matrix
                                                      Increase in maturity of Risk Mgt core skill sets
Increase # of Risk Mgt core skill sets




                                                                                      PROJECT EXECUTION RISK MATURITY MATRIX INDEX                                                                                                                                           Current   Target
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       & Date
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Level
                                                                            Level 0                         Level 1                          Level 2                         Level 3                          Level 4                              Level 5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (Score)   Q4'03
                                                                                                                                                                     Certified (2) Risk Mgr or
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Divisional PM's assigned            Divisional Risk Coordinators
                                          1. Risk Org Support      PM core team has not been      PM responsibility allocated to        Functional Risk                Div/Area/Site Risk
                                          Structure's in place       allocated to project yet          Risk Mgt of project           Coordinators appointed         Coordinator nominated to
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Risk Mgt responsibility for all
                                                                                                                                                                                                    divisions involved in project
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       assigned for all divisions involved     2         3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    in project
                                                                                                                                                                   support project when required
                                                                                                                                                         (1)
                                                                                                                                   Project Team trained   in BT
                                                                                                                                                                  Certified (2) Divisional or
                                                                                                                                     Risk & Oppty Mgt 5 Step
                                                                                                                                                                Area/ Site Risk Mgt support Project Team trained (1) in BT Project Team trained (1) in BT Risk
                                         2. Project Teams Risk No training received by Project                                         Process (Module 2)
                                                                                                                                                                  coord allocated to support    ROP Database Use (Module 6) Costing Methodology (Module 8)
                                              Trained (1 & 2)               Team
                                                                                                   Informal training received       emphasis on understanding
                                                                                                                                                                project core team assigned to and how to run a Risk Meeting  and reporting Risk in the MOR                     1         5
                                                                                                                                   3C's methodology (Module 3)
                                                                                                                                                                project trained in Facilitating         (Module 7)                    (Module 10)
                                                                                                                                      Roles & Responsibility
                                                                                                                                                                Risk Workshops (Module 5)
                                                                                                                                            (Module 4)

                                                                                                                               Risk & Opp - ID, Assess &                                          Risk & Opp - ID, Assess &         Cross Divisional Risk & Opp - ID,
                                                                                                                                                                    Risk & Opp Assess &                                (3 & 4)
                                                                                              Risk & Opp - ID, Assess &       Mitigation workshops (3 & 4) run Mitigating Action workshops (3 Mitigation workshops              run Assess & Mitigation workshops (3 & 4)
                                          3. Appropriate (3 & 4) No
                                         Risk Workshops held
                                                                    Risk & Opp Workshops run Mitigation workshops (3 & 4) run by a NON certified facilitator & 4)
                                                                                                                                                                   run by certified facilitator  by certified facilitator
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               for   run by certified facilitator
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      for      3         3
                                                                                             by a NON certified facilitator for lead & supporting Divisions                   (2)               lead & supporting Divisions            lead & supporting Divisions
                                                                                                                                  involved in the Project                                           involved in the Project                involved in the Project


                                                                                                                                                                                                    Project set up in ROP for all
                                                                                                   Project set up in ROP with       Project set up in ROP with Project Set up in ROP with all                                            Project Set up in ROP for all
                                          4. Projects Set up in                                                                                                                                      Divisions in Project with
                                                  ROP
                                                                       Project not in ROP          only PM assigned as Risk
                                                                                                    Coord for Risks & Opps
                                                                                                                                   some Risk Coords assigned
                                                                                                                                         for Risks & Opps
                                                                                                                                                                Risk Coords assigned for
                                                                                                                                                                                                   some Risk Coords assigned
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Divisions in Project with all Risk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Coords assigned for Risks & Opps
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2         3
                                                                                                                                                                       Risks & Opps
                                                                                                                                                                                                         for Risks & Opps


                                                                                                   1 - 20% Risks & Opps have       21 - 40% Risks & Opps have      41 - 60% Risks & Opps have       61 - 80% Risks & Opps have        81 - 100% Risks & Opps have Action
                                         5. % Risks with Action 0 % Risks & Opps have Action
                                                 Plans                  Plan in place
                                                                                                   Action Plan identified, dates
                                                                                                    and ownership assigned
                                                                                                                                   Action Plan identified, dates
                                                                                                                                     and ownership assigned
                                                                                                                                                                   Action Plan identified, dates
                                                                                                                                                                     and ownership assigned
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Action Plan identified, dates
                                                                                                                                                                                                      and ownership assigned
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Plan identified, dates and ownership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     assigned
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4         0
                                                                                                                                   Risk & Opps consistently on Cross Divisional Risk& Opp            Functional Risk & Opps
                                                                                                   Risk & Opps appear adhoc
                                           6. Maturity of Risk    Risk & Opps not on any of the                                    Project Coordination meeting   mtg being held by lead            meetings being run by Risk          Action Plans progress linked to
                                               Meetings               Projects Mtg agendas
                                                                                                   on the Projects Coordination
                                                                                                           Mtg agendas
                                                                                                                                     agenda with Action Plans   Division in the project, with        Coords with Action Plans          Detailed Project Schedule (DPS)         1         2
                                                                                                                                         progress tracked        action plans being tracked             progress tracked

                                                                                                                                                                                                 All Risks, Opps & Mitigating
                                                                                                                                                                      All Red Risks, Opps &      Actions costed per BT costing All Risks, Opps & Mitigating Actions
                                                                                                      Some Risks, Opps &              All Red Risks, Opps &        Mitigating Actions costed per  methodology and figure for   costed per BT costing methodology
                                         7. Risks being costed    No Risks or Opps costed per
                                                correctly           BT costing methodology
                                                                                                  Mitigating Actions costed per
                                                                                                    BT costing methodology
                                                                                                                                   Mitigating Actions costed per
                                                                                                                                     BT costing methodology
                                                                                                                                                                   BT costing methodology with
                                                                                                                                                                    some Yellow and Green
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Provision using Sum of all
                                                                                                                                                                                                  (Probabaility x Most Likely
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               and figure for Provision using Monte
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Carlo simulation in EAC derived
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0         2
                                                                                                                                                                           costed as well         Costs) in EAC derived from                 from this
                                                                                                                                                                                                              this

                                           8. Maturity of Risk     No reporting of Risk & Opp     Risk & Opp situation reported Risk & Opp situation reported Risk & Opp situation reported        Risk & Opp situation reported         Risk & Opp situation reported
                                               Reporting                    situation             Monthly to Project Core Team     Monthly to Head of PM      Monthly to Head of Functions          Monthly to Divisional MOR               Monthly to Group MOR               3         3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Certified / All Div's / Full
                                                                          No activity                      Informal                    Division trained                Group Certified             All Divisions in Project
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Process                       16        21

                                         In order to move up a level you must also have satisfied all the levels below                                                                                                                      Project RMMI                     40%       53%

                                                                                                                                                                                     Risk Mgt Maturity Score

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                42
Management by Exception
       Project Team
                                   A risk tolerance structure is always
                                   established early in the project to
Will I have unacceptable           provide the boundaries within which
    schedule variance?       Yes
                                   issues are categorised, managed,
                   No              and escalated. Risk management is
Will I have unacceptable           embedded in all work-streams.
      budget variance?
                             Yes
                   No
                                        Project
                                       Manager             Executive
Will I deviate appreciably
    from specifications?     Yes
                                    Establish the Governance structure
                   No
                                    that will span each of the Phases.
 Is the issue I am facing           This structure will be necessary to
   politically sensitive?    Yes
                                    ensure the overall success of the
                   No               project. The focus, attendance, and
                                    structure of will be different in each
       Make decision                of the project phases.


                                                                       43
Categorising Risk
Why Categorise Risk ?
 Categories help identify additional risks
 Categories may vary from project to
  project
      External: Beyond team control
      Internal: Within team control

          External                                   Internal


                  Predictable
Unpredictable                     Financial   Schedule      Technical   Legal
                (but uncertain)



                                                                                45
Eg. Risk Categories
                                                                        Manufacturing
   Product Design                      System/Software              Fabrication
                                          Data Accuracy             & Assembly      Material &
 Product           Design                                                           Processes
 Performance       Maturity       Server/Network
                                                    Performance      Process
                                  Availability
                                                                     Scaling        Production
  Test &        Weight                                               Factor         Tooling
  Evaluation                       System          Maintenance
                Technology         Compatibility   Process
Software                                                                    Supplier
Development     Level
                                                                            Process
                                              Security



                                      Project Management                    Quality
        All Other
                                       Resources         Schedule           Quality
  Market           Consumer
  Calibration      Service                                                  Systems
                                                         Product
                     Customer         Teamwork           Cost          Process         Sigma
    Environment,
    Health &
                     Adoption                                          Capability      Levels
    Safety                                Changing Scope




                                                                                            46
Example – Risk Categorisation




                                47
Risk Analysis - Qualitative &
       Quantitative
Risk Assessment - Approaches

                   Quantitative                  Qualitative

                                   Evaluation

                                                                    Baseline
Point-in-Time

                  Timing          Approaches      Identification
                                                                     Threat
Continuous
                                                                   Vulnerability

                                     Team



                Self Assessment   Independent   Collaborative


                                                                               49
Risk - Quantification / Qualification
                                          Uninsurable Risks
Valuation (factors to consider)      Supplier non-performance
                                     Customer demand volatility
     Quantitative factors            Partner work stoppages
       Revenue value                 Product defects/recalls
        Asset value                  Emerging risks (pandemic)
      Cash flow value                Others




      Qualitative factors                  Insurable Risks
            Brand                      Catastrophic disaster
        Compliance                     Property damage/loss
                                       Product liability
          Strategy
                                       Business interruption
                                       Others




                                                                   50
Risk Rating Guide
                                                     Impact
                                                   Low   High
                                                    1 3 5




                           Probability
                                         High       5 15 25 R Show stopper




                                               1 3 5
                                                    3 9 15 O Significant risk
                                         Low        1 3 5     Y Proceed with caution
                                                               G No concern
                                    Probability                                            Impact

              •   Major uncertainties remain                            •     Performance, quality, cost or safety
              •   No or little prior experience or data                       impacts resulting in major redesign and
   High (5)                                                                   program delay
              •   Infrastructure and/or resources not in
                  place

              •   Some uncertainties remain                             •     Performance, quality, cost and/or safety
                                                                              impacts resulting in minor redesign and
Medium (3)    •   Some experience and data exist
                                                                              schedule adjustment
              •   Infrastructure in place but under-
                  resourced
                                                                        •     Performance, quality, cost and safety
                                                                              requirements met within planned
              •   Few uncertainties remain
                                                                              schedule
   Low (1)    •   Significant experience and data exist
              •   Infrastructure in place and fully
                  resourced
                                                                                                                      51
Qualitative Risk

                          Consequence of Occurrence
Probability
of Occurrence       Very Low   Low Moderate High Very High

 Very Low
 Low
 Moderate
 High
 Very High

        Low Risk      Medium Risk            High Risk

                                                         52
Risk – Impact & Probability Analysis
Impact       Schedule            Cost                Performance          Probability of
Assessment                                                                risk occurring
3            Large slip to key   Large increase in   Major shortfall in   > 50%
             milestone of        total cost          operational
             contractual                             performance
             importance
2            Small slip to key   Significant         Minor shortfall in   25-50%
             milestone of        increase            operational
             contractual         in total cost       performance,
             importance                              which impacts
                                                     upon the
                                                     customer
1            Small slip to an    Small increase in   Minor shortfall in   10-25%
             internal            total cost          operational
             milestone                               performance,
                                                     which does not
                                                     impact the
                                                     customer
0            No impact on        No increase in      No impact on         <10%
             schedule            total               operational
                                 cost                performance

                                                                                           53
Example – Impact Analysis
Impact   Cost                      Time                       Quality
Very     Manageable by             Slight slippage against    Slight reduction in
Low      exchange against          internal targets           quality / scope, no
         internal budgets                                     overall impact
Low      Requires some             Slight slippage against    Failure to include
         additional funding        key milestones or          certain ‘nice to have’
         from institution          published targets          elements
Medium   Requires significant      Delay affects key          Significant elements of
         additional funding        stakeholders – loss of     scope for functionality
         from institution          confidence in the          will be unavailable
                                   project
High     Requires significant      Failure to meet key        Failure to meet the
         reallocation of           deadlines in relation to   needs of a large
         institutional funds (or   the academic year or       proportion of
         borrowing)                strategic plan             stakeholders
Very     Increases threaten        Delay jeopardises          Project outcomes
High     viability of project      viability of project       effectively unusable

                                                                                       54
Risk – Scoring System
Consequences               1.   No direct effect on operating service level
                           2.   Minor deterioration in operating service level
                           3.   Definite reduction in operating service level
                           4.   Serious deterioration in operating service level
                           5.   Operating service level approaches zero
Likelihood of occurrence   E.   Probability of once in many years
                           D.   Probability of once in many operating months
                           C.   Probability of once in some operating weeks
                           B.   Probability of weekly occurrence
                           A.   Probability of daily occurrence
Likelihood of detection    A.   Detectability is very high
                           B.   Considerable warning of failure before occurrence
                           C.   Some warning of failure before occurrence
                           D.   Little warning of failure before occurrence
                           E.   Detectability is effectively zero


                                                                                    55
Risk - Scoring Results




                         56
Risk Response Management
Risk – Prioritised
Consequence




         Transfer      Terminate




         Tolerate      Treat


   0                               Likelihood

                                                58
Example – Risk Contingency
                       How Long Can     Impact of Doing Without?          Vulnerabilities?           Contingency in case of a
                      You Do Without?                                                                       disaster?

Equipment (IT only)   5 days            After five days no way to      No UPS/generator, MD       Use paper reports for 5 days
                                        schedule production or         hardware, SPOF SME         then go manual for as many
                                        track orders                                              members as possible

Facility              0 days            No production, potential for   Metal building, flood      Look for warehouse space,
                                        bankruptcy, IT non-existent    zone, poor                 attempt to salvage equipment
                                                                       maintenance, no            and restart operation, file
                                                                       perimeter security, door   bankruptcy
                                                                       lock broken

Personnel             0 days            Degraded operations, low       Too many SPOF              Best effort shifting of available
                                        service levels                                            staff, temps

Raw Materials         30 days before    None until on hand             Single supplier            Search for alternative supplier
                      new deliveries    exhausted                      relationship


Transportation        30 days in        No supplies                    Location, design of        None
System                2 days out        No deliveries                  entrance

Utilities             0 hours/power     Extrusion shuts down, lines    Single power feed, no      None
                      0 hours/water     cleaned, waste collected       generator or backup
                                        and prepared for grinder, IT   water supply
                                        non-existent

Vendors (Sourcing)    4 hours           No call center                 Mercy of vendor            Bring in-house



                                                                                                                                 59
Risk – Monitor & Control
Key Process Number




            Process
        Risk Number




            Risk
           Control
          Objective




      Control Number
            Control Description




       Control Owner

      Process Narrative
                                  Risk Control Matrix




      Control Category


        Control Type

          Primary/
         Secondary

      Control Frequency


     Design Assessment
61
Eg. Risk Register
Project: ………………………………..                                                     Reference: ……….....
            Key: H – High; M –       Prepared by: ……………..                   Date: …………………
Medium; L - Low
Type of   Description of    Probability       Impact            Risk reduction   Contingency   Risk
Risk      Risk                                                  strategy         plans         owner
                            H    M        L   Perf. Cost Time




                                                                                                  62
Lessons Learned
On a regular basis review / monitor ….

 Top Down /
                                Risk                         Risk
 Bottom Up
                            Policies and                  Technology
    Risk
                            Procedures                      Used
  Planning




                                               Risk
              Organisatio      Risk        Training and
                n Risk      Management      Continuous
               Culture,
                             Program       Improvemen
              Tolerance
                                                 t



                                                             Risk
    Risk                      Staff
                                                           Monitoring
 Alignment                  Competenc
                                                               &
     and                       y/
                                                          Performanc
 Governance                 Capability
                                                          e Measures



                                                                        64
Note…
 Risks impacts project objectives
 The only thing we manage on a project is Risk
 Sound Project Management is Sound Risk Management
 Risks come from decisions we make as we try to
  achieve objectives
 As a minimum risks need to be identified in the areas of
  technical, cost, schedule and quality
 Risks require a factual condition and have a potential
  negative consequence
 Integrating risk activities and communicating, vastly
  enhances the effectiveness of the overall Risk
  Management Program

                                                         65
“A man's feet should be planted in his
country, but his eyes should survey the
                 world.”

                          - George Santayana




                                          66
Good Luck
http://www.linkedin.com/in/anandsubramaniam




                                              67

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Risk Management Framework

  • 1. Risk Management Framework Process, Tools & Techniques to Minimise Risk Exposure Anand Subramaniam
  • 2. “If you are never scared or embarrassed or hurt, it means you never take any chances.” - Julia Sorel 2
  • 3. Highlights  Risk Exposure  Project, Program, Project Portfolio Risks  Risk Management – Overview  Risk Management – Framework  Risk Management – Governance  Risk - Org. Policy, Tolerance, Maturity Level, Ad- hoc Reporting  Categorising Risk  Risk Analysis - Qualitative & Quantitative  Risk Response Management  Monitoring & Controlling Risks 3
  • 6. Risk - Challenges & Expectations Stakeholders Drivers  Citizens  Mission & Objectives  Visitors  Trust & Reputations  Regulators  Asset & Capital Management  Government Agencies  Expenditures & Budget  Others  Regulations Challenges  Digital Divide  Volume  Social, Cultural and Educational Issues  Cost Management  Existing Infrastructure  Regulatory  Legacy Systems, Interoperability Requirements Expectations Delivering Value Managing Cost Managing Risk Change Mngt Compliance  Availability  Project  Confidentiality  Project / Program  Regulatory  Accessibility Management  Security Implementation Compliance  Infrastructure  Program  Data Integrity  Change  Vendor Risk  Management  Management Management Reliability Applications   Project Portfolio  Interoperability  Monitoring Governance Management  Privacy Outsourced  Control Monitoring  Innovation  Identity & Access Operations Management  Incident Response 6
  • 7. Risk Exposure Areas Concept Technology Sys Dev & Prod & Deploy Opns & Refinement Develop Demo Support Opportunity Capture Pre- Proposal Dev Post- Assessment Team Dev Proposal Submit 7
  • 9. Risk – Plan vs. Actual Performance Poor Risk io ns Management ct at x pe Performance e rE Technical m Inability s to Cu ce rman Perfo Actual Time 9
  • 10. Risk Management Realities… Insurance Not Purchased Insurance Not Available Political Risk War / Strike Environmental Reputational Advertiser’s Liability Terrorism Biological Professional Liability Nuclear / Radiation E-Commerce Liability Regulatory Fines & Penalties Certain lines of Products Poor Business Judgment Patent Infringement Supply Chain Interruption Product recall Loss of Market Share Non-Owned Breach of Contract Terrorism Global Pandemic Liability Fraud 10
  • 11. Project, Program, Project Portfolio Risks
  • 12. Integrated Risk Management Life Cycle & Environmen Communi- Scope Integration t Variables cation Ideas, Expectation Directives, s Feasibility Data Exchange Requiremen Projec Availability, Human Quality Productivity t Standards t Risk Resources Cost Time Objectives, Objectives, Restraints Restraints Contract / Services, Time Materials: Cost Procure Performanc e Source: Wideman, Max R., ed., 12
  • 13. Project Risk - Exposure / Impact Internal Schedul Resourc Risks Financial Quality e e Project Project Project Objectives Planning Execution Externa Integra- Procure- Commun Scope l Risks tion ment i-cation Opportunities for Tradeoffs - Resulting from Risk Analyses 13
  • 14. Project - Opportunities / Risks Opportunities Risks • Identifies gaps in realisation of • Fragmented project plans strategic objectives • Poorly defined project mission & • Escalates current risks and tasks identifies potential risks earlier • No clear process for escalating • Ensures proper communications risks to senior management to relevant stakeholders • Insufficient reporting to support • Improves monitoring and control top-management decisions of projects • Ineffective enforcement of project • Mediates issue resolution controls and policies • Increases efficiency in tracking • Conflict between line and project progress of projects managers • Integrates project plans for all • Projects do not meet deadlines projects – standardises progress and / or milestones reporting • Lack of standardised reports and reporting frameworks 14
  • 15. Projects & PPM – Risk Exposure Scope Goals Risk Risk Risk Risk Project Risk Project Risk Portfolio Risk Managemen Managemen t t Process Time Cost Culture Maturity 15
  • 16. Risks - Project Manager’s Role  Understand business case and project context  Baseline the risk register  Oversee risk management activities  Embed risk thinking into project review meetings  Ensure risk response actions are carried out (threats, issues & opportunities)  Utilise risk management reserve efficiently  Manage stakeholder expectations  Deliver to time, cost and quality 16
  • 17. Program Manager’s Challenge Shareholder / Stakeholder Value Programme & What are Operational the risks? Benefits Project What are the risks? Deliverables What are the risks? 17
  • 18. Portfolio Risk Management Executive Board Guidance Programmes Operations Information Functional Projects Logistics Contractors Contractors Supply chain Supply chain 18
  • 19. Risk Management - Overview
  • 20. What is Risk? There is a GIVEN POSSIBILITY that, Will Condition Consequence Occur • Must be a FACT or perceived to be FACT • Must be REALITY BASED • Can have NO uncertainty attached Must be ACTIONABLE ONE condition and ONE consequence per statement 20
  • 21. Risk Process – Conceptual Overview Establish the context Communicate and Consult Identify risks Monitor and Review Analyse risks Evaluate risks Assess risks Treat risks 21
  • 22. Risk Elements TOOLS & TECHNIQUES Scaleable, fit for purpose PROCESSES PEOPLE & BEHAVIORS Well defined, part of normal work routine, Management commitment, consistently delivery teams own the risks, used across operations involved early, projects contractors engaged, reward the right behaviors 22
  • 23. Risk – Project & Process Elements Project Elements Process Elements Roles & Risk Assessment Responsibilities What is the Scope of the Risk Assessment? What Adverse Events Can Happen? How Likely are These Events to Occur? Personnel How Severe Would the Consequences Be if the Events Did Occur? Feedback Loops Qualifications Risk Control & Decision Support Management of Change What Could Be Done to Control Risks? What Are the Relative Merits of the Risk Control Options? What Set of Activities Best Achieves Risk Management Goals? Communications Documentation Performance Monitoring & Feedback Project Evaluation and What Improvements are Expected to Result from the Risk Control Decisions? Improvement What Measures Best Capture These Expected Outcomes? Are the Selected Risk Control Activities Having the Intended Effect? How Can the Overall Risk Management Process be Improved? 23
  • 24. Risk Scope Requirements/ Specification Quality Cost Schedule 24
  • 25. Risk Management – Strategy to Execution Write  Perform risk assessment Plan  Risk management plan developed Assemble  Risk assessment team assembled Team  Risk generation process executed  Risk list rationalised Generate Risks  Risks ranked and prioritised  Response plans written Rationalise List  Risk review process established  Risk review done periodically Rank Risks  Institutionalise ongoing risk assessment Write  Ongoing risk reviews Responses  Execution of risk response plans if necessary Monitor & Control 25
  • 26. Risk Management Process - PMBOK Source: PMI 26
  • 27. Risk Management - Framework
  • 28. Defining a Risk Framework Goals and Objectives Internal Timing Audit Milestones Risk Executive Manage Team composition Management Approach and r Methodology Tools Project Sponsor Reporting Information Criteria 28
  • 29. Risk Framework ion Stra t ecu t egy Ex Iterate & Improve Tactical 29
  • 30. Risk - Strategy Input Techniques Output • Business Strategy • Interviews • Risk Profile • Value Drivers • Questionnaires • Risk Organisation Chart • Organisation Process • Checklist • Roles & Responsibilities • Define Risk Management • Assumption Analysis • SWOT Analysis Objectives • SWOT template • Optimal Network Structure • Determine Risk Appetite / • Risk Strategy Tolerance • Risk Register • Define Risk Organisation • Risk Policies • Perform SWOT Analysis • Risk Governance Process • Design supply chain to match Risk Profile • Map & Evaluate Current Network • Analysis – Cost, Inventory • Identify & Evaluate Alternative Structures 30
  • 31. Risk - Tactical Input Techniques Output • Risk Profile • Qualitative Assessment - • Rank Alternatives • Risk Organisation Chart Probability / Impact • Risks Related to • Roles & Responsibilities Matrix, Brainstorming, Contractual Agreements • SWOT Analysis Cause & Effect Diagrams • Risk Categorisation • Optimal Network Structure • Quantitative Assessment - • Ranking of Failure Points • Risk Strategy FMEA, Simulation, • Risk Database Populated • Risk Register Modelling, Diagramming with Alert Criteria • Select Optimal Network Techniques • Alert Process Defined Structure • Strategies for Negative • Identify Failure Points in and Positive Risks the Supply Chain • Strategies for • Prioritise the Failure Opportunities & Threats Points • Contingency Response • Identify Alternatives Strategies • Define the Alert Criteria • Risk Management Information Systems 31
  • 32. Risk - Execution Input Techniques Output • Risk Strategy • Status Meeting • Risk Registers • Risk Policies • Risk Reassessments • Recommendation – • Risk Governance • Risk Audits Preventive, Awareness, • Risk Register • Variance / Trend Analysis Remediation • Rank Alternatives • Performance Measures • Monitor Inherent, Residual • Risks Related to • Reserve Analysis & Secondary Risks Contractual Agreements • Alert Mechanisms • Evaluate Effectiveness • Risk Categorisation • Risk Management • Ranking of Failure Points Knowledgebase • Risk Database With Alert Criteria / Process • Performance Reports • Collaborate on Risk Response Plan • Continuously Monitor 32
  • 33. Knowledge – Capture & Improve Continuously Capture Improve Lessons Learnt Collaborate Communicate 33
  • 34. Risk Management – Lessons Learned Capture Communicate Collaborate Improve Input Input Input Input • Detect disruptions • Communicate • Review immediate • Review action plan and estimate impact of action and identify from project impact on supply disruptions causes closure phase chain performance Process Process Process Process • Risk responsible • Identify alternative • Review success / • Identify & identifies disruption solutions failure of solutions categorise & leads meeting • Select best implemented disruptions with participants alternative • Re-group if • Record risk in risk • Distribute reports • Delegate mitigation is database and documents assignment unsuccessful from ‘capture’ to • Record / update Output ‘closure’ Output the solutions • Disruption list • Project closure • Risk database Output report Output • Follow-up • Review action • Updated risk points & follow up database 34
  • 35. Risk Management - Governance
  • 36. Risk Management - Governance Portfolio Risk Program Project Risk Contractor Risk Mgmt Plan Risk Mgmt Mgmt Plan Key Plan Mgmt Plan Risk Mgmt Initiate Risk Governance Mgmt Document Ongoing Risk Activity Plan Risk Mgmt Monitor & Control the Discrete Risk Activity Risk Mgmt Process (Includes Learning and Identify Continuous Risks Improvement) Close-out Control Assess Risk Mgmt Risks Risk Register Risks Respond to Risks 36
  • 37. Risk Management – Governance Steps Planning Identification Assessment Analysis Closure • Methods • FTAs • ROI • Deterministic • Mitigation • Resources • Experts • ROIC • Simulation • Prevention • Requirements • FMEAs • Quantify • Tech Perf • Complete info • Responsibilities • History • Tech Perf Measures • Critical Items • Program Measures • Business Case & Issues List Documentation Analysis • Business Case Analysis 37
  • 38. Risk – Org. Policy, Tolerance, Maturity Level, Reporting
  • 39. Risk Policy / Escalation Process Corporate Risks Objectives Risk Appetite Strategic Risks Risk Priorities + Significant Escalation Strategic Mitigation Tactical Risks Authorisation Behaviour Tactical Risks 39
  • 40. Example – Risk Tolerance 40
  • 41. Organisation Maturity & Risk Strategies Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Culture Increased Culture becomes Consistency of Unaware Early awareness Awareness Known and Past and Future and bias Uniform Actions Technology Isolated projects; More "joined up" Vision drives Vision becomes None initiated from the thinking, but still vision bottom up silo-oriented. decisions Competitive Edge Alignment of Weak, early Understanding Understanding Understanding of bus. and IT Unknown concept awareness and focus at silo level and focus across lines of business wider scope; collaboration Stakeholder First signs of Stakeholder Well Understood, Optimal alignment No alignment Stakeholder Analysis, Trade Drives Decisions Stakeholder centricity; silos Off analysis Benefits Early Attempts Governance model Governance None Becomes a To resolve Defines and in Strong Governance model concern Governance issues Place Culture No process Team-based; Process integration Shared processes End-to-end Process fragmented; At department across process Integrity orientation minimal insight level the company optimisation Weak, Fragmented; Strong Strong functionality Superior functionality; IT plan limited functionality functionality with company- integrated beyond Very fragmented; and focus within silos level integration the company Data None, poor Focus on silo Ongoing, Iterative Competitive strategy quality Operational focus quality Process to maintain Differentiator Quality 41
  • 42. Example – Risk Maturity Matrix Increase in maturity of Risk Mgt core skill sets Increase # of Risk Mgt core skill sets PROJECT EXECUTION RISK MATURITY MATRIX INDEX Current Target & Date Level Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 (Score) Q4'03 Certified (2) Risk Mgr or Divisional PM's assigned Divisional Risk Coordinators 1. Risk Org Support PM core team has not been PM responsibility allocated to Functional Risk Div/Area/Site Risk Structure's in place allocated to project yet Risk Mgt of project Coordinators appointed Coordinator nominated to Risk Mgt responsibility for all divisions involved in project assigned for all divisions involved 2 3 in project support project when required (1) Project Team trained in BT Certified (2) Divisional or Risk & Oppty Mgt 5 Step Area/ Site Risk Mgt support Project Team trained (1) in BT Project Team trained (1) in BT Risk 2. Project Teams Risk No training received by Project Process (Module 2) coord allocated to support ROP Database Use (Module 6) Costing Methodology (Module 8) Trained (1 & 2) Team Informal training received emphasis on understanding project core team assigned to and how to run a Risk Meeting and reporting Risk in the MOR 1 5 3C's methodology (Module 3) project trained in Facilitating (Module 7) (Module 10) Roles & Responsibility Risk Workshops (Module 5) (Module 4) Risk & Opp - ID, Assess & Risk & Opp - ID, Assess & Cross Divisional Risk & Opp - ID, Risk & Opp Assess & (3 & 4) Risk & Opp - ID, Assess & Mitigation workshops (3 & 4) run Mitigating Action workshops (3 Mitigation workshops run Assess & Mitigation workshops (3 & 4) 3. Appropriate (3 & 4) No Risk Workshops held Risk & Opp Workshops run Mitigation workshops (3 & 4) run by a NON certified facilitator & 4) run by certified facilitator by certified facilitator (2) for run by certified facilitator (2) for 3 3 by a NON certified facilitator for lead & supporting Divisions (2) lead & supporting Divisions lead & supporting Divisions involved in the Project involved in the Project involved in the Project Project set up in ROP for all Project set up in ROP with Project set up in ROP with Project Set up in ROP with all Project Set up in ROP for all 4. Projects Set up in Divisions in Project with ROP Project not in ROP only PM assigned as Risk Coord for Risks & Opps some Risk Coords assigned for Risks & Opps Risk Coords assigned for some Risk Coords assigned Divisions in Project with all Risk Coords assigned for Risks & Opps 2 3 Risks & Opps for Risks & Opps 1 - 20% Risks & Opps have 21 - 40% Risks & Opps have 41 - 60% Risks & Opps have 61 - 80% Risks & Opps have 81 - 100% Risks & Opps have Action 5. % Risks with Action 0 % Risks & Opps have Action Plans Plan in place Action Plan identified, dates and ownership assigned Action Plan identified, dates and ownership assigned Action Plan identified, dates and ownership assigned Action Plan identified, dates and ownership assigned Plan identified, dates and ownership assigned 4 0 Risk & Opps consistently on Cross Divisional Risk& Opp Functional Risk & Opps Risk & Opps appear adhoc 6. Maturity of Risk Risk & Opps not on any of the Project Coordination meeting mtg being held by lead meetings being run by Risk Action Plans progress linked to Meetings Projects Mtg agendas on the Projects Coordination Mtg agendas agenda with Action Plans Division in the project, with Coords with Action Plans Detailed Project Schedule (DPS) 1 2 progress tracked action plans being tracked progress tracked All Risks, Opps & Mitigating All Red Risks, Opps & Actions costed per BT costing All Risks, Opps & Mitigating Actions Some Risks, Opps & All Red Risks, Opps & Mitigating Actions costed per methodology and figure for costed per BT costing methodology 7. Risks being costed No Risks or Opps costed per correctly BT costing methodology Mitigating Actions costed per BT costing methodology Mitigating Actions costed per BT costing methodology BT costing methodology with some Yellow and Green Provision using Sum of all (Probabaility x Most Likely and figure for Provision using Monte Carlo simulation in EAC derived 0 2 costed as well Costs) in EAC derived from from this this 8. Maturity of Risk No reporting of Risk & Opp Risk & Opp situation reported Risk & Opp situation reported Risk & Opp situation reported Risk & Opp situation reported Risk & Opp situation reported Reporting situation Monthly to Project Core Team Monthly to Head of PM Monthly to Head of Functions Monthly to Divisional MOR Monthly to Group MOR 3 3 Certified / All Div's / Full No activity Informal Division trained Group Certified All Divisions in Project Process 16 21 In order to move up a level you must also have satisfied all the levels below Project RMMI 40% 53% Risk Mgt Maturity Score 42
  • 43. Management by Exception Project Team A risk tolerance structure is always established early in the project to Will I have unacceptable provide the boundaries within which schedule variance? Yes issues are categorised, managed, No and escalated. Risk management is Will I have unacceptable embedded in all work-streams. budget variance? Yes No Project Manager Executive Will I deviate appreciably from specifications? Yes Establish the Governance structure No that will span each of the Phases. Is the issue I am facing This structure will be necessary to politically sensitive? Yes ensure the overall success of the No project. The focus, attendance, and structure of will be different in each Make decision of the project phases. 43
  • 45. Why Categorise Risk ?  Categories help identify additional risks  Categories may vary from project to project  External: Beyond team control  Internal: Within team control External Internal Predictable Unpredictable Financial Schedule Technical Legal (but uncertain) 45
  • 46. Eg. Risk Categories Manufacturing Product Design System/Software Fabrication Data Accuracy & Assembly Material & Product Design Processes Performance Maturity Server/Network Performance Process Availability Scaling Production Test & Weight Factor Tooling Evaluation System Maintenance Technology Compatibility Process Software Supplier Development Level Process Security Project Management Quality All Other Resources Schedule Quality Market Consumer Calibration Service Systems Product Customer Teamwork Cost Process Sigma Environment, Health & Adoption Capability Levels Safety Changing Scope 46
  • 47. Example – Risk Categorisation 47
  • 48. Risk Analysis - Qualitative & Quantitative
  • 49. Risk Assessment - Approaches Quantitative Qualitative Evaluation Baseline Point-in-Time Timing Approaches Identification Threat Continuous Vulnerability Team Self Assessment Independent Collaborative 49
  • 50. Risk - Quantification / Qualification Uninsurable Risks Valuation (factors to consider)  Supplier non-performance  Customer demand volatility Quantitative factors  Partner work stoppages Revenue value  Product defects/recalls Asset value  Emerging risks (pandemic) Cash flow value  Others Qualitative factors Insurable Risks Brand  Catastrophic disaster Compliance  Property damage/loss  Product liability Strategy  Business interruption  Others 50
  • 51. Risk Rating Guide Impact Low High 1 3 5 Probability High 5 15 25 R Show stopper 1 3 5 3 9 15 O Significant risk Low 1 3 5 Y Proceed with caution G No concern Probability Impact • Major uncertainties remain • Performance, quality, cost or safety • No or little prior experience or data impacts resulting in major redesign and High (5) program delay • Infrastructure and/or resources not in place • Some uncertainties remain • Performance, quality, cost and/or safety impacts resulting in minor redesign and Medium (3) • Some experience and data exist schedule adjustment • Infrastructure in place but under- resourced • Performance, quality, cost and safety requirements met within planned • Few uncertainties remain schedule Low (1) • Significant experience and data exist • Infrastructure in place and fully resourced 51
  • 52. Qualitative Risk Consequence of Occurrence Probability of Occurrence Very Low Low Moderate High Very High Very Low Low Moderate High Very High Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk 52
  • 53. Risk – Impact & Probability Analysis Impact Schedule Cost Performance Probability of Assessment risk occurring 3 Large slip to key Large increase in Major shortfall in > 50% milestone of total cost operational contractual performance importance 2 Small slip to key Significant Minor shortfall in 25-50% milestone of increase operational contractual in total cost performance, importance which impacts upon the customer 1 Small slip to an Small increase in Minor shortfall in 10-25% internal total cost operational milestone performance, which does not impact the customer 0 No impact on No increase in No impact on <10% schedule total operational cost performance 53
  • 54. Example – Impact Analysis Impact Cost Time Quality Very Manageable by Slight slippage against Slight reduction in Low exchange against internal targets quality / scope, no internal budgets overall impact Low Requires some Slight slippage against Failure to include additional funding key milestones or certain ‘nice to have’ from institution published targets elements Medium Requires significant Delay affects key Significant elements of additional funding stakeholders – loss of scope for functionality from institution confidence in the will be unavailable project High Requires significant Failure to meet key Failure to meet the reallocation of deadlines in relation to needs of a large institutional funds (or the academic year or proportion of borrowing) strategic plan stakeholders Very Increases threaten Delay jeopardises Project outcomes High viability of project viability of project effectively unusable 54
  • 55. Risk – Scoring System Consequences 1. No direct effect on operating service level 2. Minor deterioration in operating service level 3. Definite reduction in operating service level 4. Serious deterioration in operating service level 5. Operating service level approaches zero Likelihood of occurrence E. Probability of once in many years D. Probability of once in many operating months C. Probability of once in some operating weeks B. Probability of weekly occurrence A. Probability of daily occurrence Likelihood of detection A. Detectability is very high B. Considerable warning of failure before occurrence C. Some warning of failure before occurrence D. Little warning of failure before occurrence E. Detectability is effectively zero 55
  • 56. Risk - Scoring Results 56
  • 58. Risk – Prioritised Consequence Transfer Terminate Tolerate Treat 0 Likelihood 58
  • 59. Example – Risk Contingency How Long Can Impact of Doing Without? Vulnerabilities? Contingency in case of a You Do Without? disaster? Equipment (IT only) 5 days After five days no way to No UPS/generator, MD Use paper reports for 5 days schedule production or hardware, SPOF SME then go manual for as many track orders members as possible Facility 0 days No production, potential for Metal building, flood Look for warehouse space, bankruptcy, IT non-existent zone, poor attempt to salvage equipment maintenance, no and restart operation, file perimeter security, door bankruptcy lock broken Personnel 0 days Degraded operations, low Too many SPOF Best effort shifting of available service levels staff, temps Raw Materials 30 days before None until on hand Single supplier Search for alternative supplier new deliveries exhausted relationship Transportation 30 days in No supplies Location, design of None System 2 days out No deliveries entrance Utilities 0 hours/power Extrusion shuts down, lines Single power feed, no None 0 hours/water cleaned, waste collected generator or backup and prepared for grinder, IT water supply non-existent Vendors (Sourcing) 4 hours No call center Mercy of vendor Bring in-house 59
  • 60. Risk – Monitor & Control
  • 61. Key Process Number Process Risk Number Risk Control Objective Control Number Control Description Control Owner Process Narrative Risk Control Matrix Control Category Control Type Primary/ Secondary Control Frequency Design Assessment 61
  • 62. Eg. Risk Register Project: ……………………………….. Reference: ………..... Key: H – High; M – Prepared by: …………….. Date: ………………… Medium; L - Low Type of Description of Probability Impact Risk reduction Contingency Risk Risk Risk strategy plans owner H M L Perf. Cost Time 62
  • 64. On a regular basis review / monitor …. Top Down / Risk Risk Bottom Up Policies and Technology Risk Procedures Used Planning Risk Organisatio Risk Training and n Risk Management Continuous Culture, Program Improvemen Tolerance t Risk Risk Staff Monitoring Alignment Competenc & and y/ Performanc Governance Capability e Measures 64
  • 65. Note…  Risks impacts project objectives  The only thing we manage on a project is Risk  Sound Project Management is Sound Risk Management  Risks come from decisions we make as we try to achieve objectives  As a minimum risks need to be identified in the areas of technical, cost, schedule and quality  Risks require a factual condition and have a potential negative consequence  Integrating risk activities and communicating, vastly enhances the effectiveness of the overall Risk Management Program 65
  • 66. “A man's feet should be planted in his country, but his eyes should survey the world.” - George Santayana 66