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Flood Impact Assessment in Mega Cities under
Urban Sprawl and Climate Change (Part II)
Ni-Bin Chang, Ph.D., P.E.
Director, Stormwater Management Academy
University of Central Florida
July 6, 2015
Outline
• Introduction to New York City: a Mega City
• Important city planning projects relating to flood
management
• Smart growth perspectives
Population Growth
• As of July 2014, New York City’s population was estimated at
8,491,079 by the U.S. Census Bureau.
• This represented an increase of 315,900 residents (or 3.9
percent) over the April 2010 decennial census count of
8,175,133.
• Population growth was fueled by the continued surplus of
births over deaths due to life expectancy in the city, coupled
with a net influx of people into the city.
New York City: a Mega City
Source: Department of Planning, NYC
Population Distribution in 2013
New York City's five boroughs overview
Jurisdiction Population Land area
Borough County
1 July 2013
Estimates
square
miles
square
km
Manhattan New York 1,626,159 23 59
The Bronx Bronx 1,418,733 42 109
Brooklyn Kings 2,592,149 71 183
Queens Queens 2,296,175 109 283
Staten Island Richmond 472,621 58 151
City of New York 8,405,837 303 786
State of New York 19,651,127 47,214 122,284
Source: US Census Bureau
Population Gain over the last 51 Months
• Each of the city’s five boroughs registered gains in population.
• Brooklyn saw the largest increase, up 4.7 percent or 117,100
persons
• Queens (4.1 percent or 90,900 persons)
• Bronx (3.8 percent or 53,100 persons)
• Manhattan (3.2 percent or 50,400 persons)
• Staten Island (1.0 percent or 4,500 persons) period.
Source: US Census Bureau
Geographical
Environment of NYC
• Hudson River estuary
waterways around New
York City:
1. Hudson River,
2. East River,
3. Long Island Sound,
4. Newark Bay,
5. Upper New York Bay,
6. Lower New York Bay,
7. Jamaica Bay, and
8. Atlantic Ocean.
Source: Department of City Planning,
Population Growth (blue) and Population Loss (red)
from 1990 to 2000
Source: wikipedia
Geograpgic Distribution of Median Income in NYC
Important City Planning Projects
Relating to Flood Management
• Flood management : National Flood Insurance Program
• Green infrastructure plan
• Skyway plan
• Bicycle track plan
• Public transportation access and rezoning
• New York City comprehensive waterfront plan
• World Trade Centre reconstrcution plan
Source: Department of City Planning, NYC
Risk & Resilience: A Systems Approach for Water Security
Future Flood Zones for New York City
• New York City Panel on Climate Change Climate Risk
Information 2013 Observations, Climate Change Projections,
and Maps (JUNE 2013).
• The maps at right show future flood zones for the area taking
into account sea level rise from both ocean warming and ice
sheet melt.
• They factor in local conditions such as vertical land movement
and regional climate variations.
Future 100-Year and 500-Year
Flood Zones for New York City
NYCC2
FEMA 100-year Floodplain: Bronx and Brooklyn
Bronx Brooklyn
FEMA 100-year Floodplain: Queens and Staten Island
Queens Staten Island
FEMA 100-year Floodplain: Manhattan
Manhattan
Sources: New York City Panel on Climate Change
Climate Risk Information 2013 Observations, Climate Change
Projections, and Maps
Projected Future 100-year Floodplain
- 2013, 2020, and 2050
• If mid-century projections of
sea level rise prove true for
New York City, four times as
many people may be living
in the 100-year floodplain
than were previously
estimated based only on
observed changes.
Trend Detection in Sea Level Anomalies
Source: Possible sea-level rise with varying scenarios (NASA, 2014)
Tropical Cyclone
• A tropical depression is an organized system of clouds and
thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and
maximum sustained winds of 38 miles per hour or less.
• A tropical storm is an organized system of clouds and
thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and
maximum sustained winds of 39 ~ 73 miles per hour.
• A hurricane is an organized system of clouds and
thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and
maximum sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or greater.
Hurricane Sandy Inundation via Storm Tidal Surge
Surces: NYC
Storm Surge Height, Wave Run-up, Storm Tide, and Tide
Distribution of NFIP Policy Claims
Estimated Sandy 1 m Hindcast on Feb. 2014
Storm Tide in NYC
Category 4
Category 3
Category 2
Category 1
New York City Storm Surge Innudation Zone
Rotterdam Flood Barrier in New York City
http://inhabitat.com/
New York City Green Infrastructure
McPhearson et al., 2014
Low Impact Development (LID)
Stormwater Pond
Rain Graden
Green Roof
Pervious Pavement
New York City Green Infrastructure
Right-of-way Bioswale, Denton Place, Brooklyn
Proposed green street
How Do Low Impact Development (LID) Technologies Come to
Help?
# Introduce a spatially-explicit
approach to assist landscape
architects, urban planners, and
water managers in identifying
priority sites for LID.
# Examine the current flood
proofing facilities to public utility
department in identifying priority
sites in response to sea level rise,
storm surge, and storm tides.
New York City Green Infrastructure
Original and Expanded Priority
CSO Tributary Areas in 2014
Original and Expanded Priority
CSO Tributary Areas in 2015
New York City Green Infrastructure
Projected construction start dates for
area-wide green infrastructure contracts
in 2014
Projected construction start dates for
area-wide green infrastructure contracts
in 2015
Impacts of Public Transportation Access on Real Estate
Development in New York City, New York
New York City Comprehensive Waterfront Plan
East River Skyways
Est River Bicycle Tracks
World Trade Centre Reconstruction Plan
Smart Growth
Challenges in Synergistic Research
• Integration between storm tidal surge model and urban
growth model
• Integration between socioeconomical development, land
demand, and urban growth model
• Integration between low impact development, stormwater
management, and flood impact assessment model.

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New York City Case Study

  • 1. Flood Impact Assessment in Mega Cities under Urban Sprawl and Climate Change (Part II) Ni-Bin Chang, Ph.D., P.E. Director, Stormwater Management Academy University of Central Florida July 6, 2015
  • 2. Outline • Introduction to New York City: a Mega City • Important city planning projects relating to flood management • Smart growth perspectives
  • 3. Population Growth • As of July 2014, New York City’s population was estimated at 8,491,079 by the U.S. Census Bureau. • This represented an increase of 315,900 residents (or 3.9 percent) over the April 2010 decennial census count of 8,175,133. • Population growth was fueled by the continued surplus of births over deaths due to life expectancy in the city, coupled with a net influx of people into the city.
  • 4. New York City: a Mega City Source: Department of Planning, NYC
  • 5. Population Distribution in 2013 New York City's five boroughs overview Jurisdiction Population Land area Borough County 1 July 2013 Estimates square miles square km Manhattan New York 1,626,159 23 59 The Bronx Bronx 1,418,733 42 109 Brooklyn Kings 2,592,149 71 183 Queens Queens 2,296,175 109 283 Staten Island Richmond 472,621 58 151 City of New York 8,405,837 303 786 State of New York 19,651,127 47,214 122,284 Source: US Census Bureau
  • 6. Population Gain over the last 51 Months • Each of the city’s five boroughs registered gains in population. • Brooklyn saw the largest increase, up 4.7 percent or 117,100 persons • Queens (4.1 percent or 90,900 persons) • Bronx (3.8 percent or 53,100 persons) • Manhattan (3.2 percent or 50,400 persons) • Staten Island (1.0 percent or 4,500 persons) period. Source: US Census Bureau
  • 7. Geographical Environment of NYC • Hudson River estuary waterways around New York City: 1. Hudson River, 2. East River, 3. Long Island Sound, 4. Newark Bay, 5. Upper New York Bay, 6. Lower New York Bay, 7. Jamaica Bay, and 8. Atlantic Ocean. Source: Department of City Planning,
  • 8. Population Growth (blue) and Population Loss (red) from 1990 to 2000 Source: wikipedia
  • 9. Geograpgic Distribution of Median Income in NYC
  • 10. Important City Planning Projects Relating to Flood Management • Flood management : National Flood Insurance Program • Green infrastructure plan • Skyway plan • Bicycle track plan • Public transportation access and rezoning • New York City comprehensive waterfront plan • World Trade Centre reconstrcution plan Source: Department of City Planning, NYC
  • 11. Risk & Resilience: A Systems Approach for Water Security
  • 12. Future Flood Zones for New York City • New York City Panel on Climate Change Climate Risk Information 2013 Observations, Climate Change Projections, and Maps (JUNE 2013). • The maps at right show future flood zones for the area taking into account sea level rise from both ocean warming and ice sheet melt. • They factor in local conditions such as vertical land movement and regional climate variations.
  • 13. Future 100-Year and 500-Year Flood Zones for New York City NYCC2
  • 14. FEMA 100-year Floodplain: Bronx and Brooklyn Bronx Brooklyn
  • 15. FEMA 100-year Floodplain: Queens and Staten Island Queens Staten Island
  • 16. FEMA 100-year Floodplain: Manhattan Manhattan Sources: New York City Panel on Climate Change Climate Risk Information 2013 Observations, Climate Change Projections, and Maps
  • 17. Projected Future 100-year Floodplain - 2013, 2020, and 2050 • If mid-century projections of sea level rise prove true for New York City, four times as many people may be living in the 100-year floodplain than were previously estimated based only on observed changes.
  • 18. Trend Detection in Sea Level Anomalies Source: Possible sea-level rise with varying scenarios (NASA, 2014)
  • 19. Tropical Cyclone • A tropical depression is an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 miles per hour or less. • A tropical storm is an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39 ~ 73 miles per hour. • A hurricane is an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or greater.
  • 20. Hurricane Sandy Inundation via Storm Tidal Surge Surces: NYC
  • 21. Storm Surge Height, Wave Run-up, Storm Tide, and Tide
  • 22. Distribution of NFIP Policy Claims
  • 23. Estimated Sandy 1 m Hindcast on Feb. 2014
  • 24. Storm Tide in NYC Category 4 Category 3 Category 2 Category 1
  • 25. New York City Storm Surge Innudation Zone
  • 26. Rotterdam Flood Barrier in New York City http://inhabitat.com/
  • 27. New York City Green Infrastructure McPhearson et al., 2014
  • 28. Low Impact Development (LID) Stormwater Pond Rain Graden Green Roof Pervious Pavement
  • 29. New York City Green Infrastructure Right-of-way Bioswale, Denton Place, Brooklyn Proposed green street
  • 30. How Do Low Impact Development (LID) Technologies Come to Help? # Introduce a spatially-explicit approach to assist landscape architects, urban planners, and water managers in identifying priority sites for LID. # Examine the current flood proofing facilities to public utility department in identifying priority sites in response to sea level rise, storm surge, and storm tides.
  • 31. New York City Green Infrastructure Original and Expanded Priority CSO Tributary Areas in 2014 Original and Expanded Priority CSO Tributary Areas in 2015
  • 32. New York City Green Infrastructure Projected construction start dates for area-wide green infrastructure contracts in 2014 Projected construction start dates for area-wide green infrastructure contracts in 2015
  • 33. Impacts of Public Transportation Access on Real Estate Development in New York City, New York
  • 34. New York City Comprehensive Waterfront Plan
  • 37. World Trade Centre Reconstruction Plan
  • 39. Challenges in Synergistic Research • Integration between storm tidal surge model and urban growth model • Integration between socioeconomical development, land demand, and urban growth model • Integration between low impact development, stormwater management, and flood impact assessment model.