Making sure that we have the right people in the right place with the right level of skills at the right time to deliver both short and long term objectives requires information and insight. This need has sparked a growing interest in workforce planning. Organisations have identified a compelling need to be able to ‘shape’ and skill themselves to deal with both expected and unexpected events: as well as to control costs without damaging competitiveness. Strategic Workforce Planning (SWP) supports these objectives in the quest to become flexible and agile. SWP is a core process of human resource management. It helps HR Professionals to provide insight to an organisation’s competitive advantage through people. This session will cover some of the objectives, principles and models used in SWP, together with case studies of best practice. This presentation was used at HR Summit and Expo 2013 www.hrsummitexpo.com

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Strategic Workforce Planning
‘A core process of human resource management’
Paul Turner

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Professor Paul Turner
Workforce
planning- right
people, right
time, right skills
Paul Turner has held Professorial positions at Universities in Birmingham, Nottingham and Cambridge.
Paul Turner’s previous positions have included President of Europe, Middle East and Africa, Employee Care for the
Convergys Corporation of Cincinnati, (to 2005) Group HR Business Director for Lloyds TSB, (to 2003) Vice President of the
CIPD, (to 2001) a Director of BT, a Non-Executive Director of Blessing White and OPI and a General Manager for Plessey in
both the UK and Asia Pacific.
Paul was Chair of the European Human Asset Conferences from 2009 to 2012 and Chair of the European Talent for
Tomorrow Conferences. He was a judge on the European HR Excellence Awards, the CIPD People Management Awards
and a consultant on the CIPD research into Workforce Planning (2010) and Talent Management (2007).
Paul has spoken at business conferences around the world and is the author or co author of Meaning at Work- Employee
Engagement in Europe (2012),Talent Management in Europe (2012), Workforce Planning (2010), The Admirable Company
(2008), Talent (2007), Organisational Communication (2003) and HR Forecasting and Planning (2002). He has written
articles for business journals and the International Press.
Paul has a first degree from the University of East Anglia, a Ph.D from the University of Sheffield and is a Companion of
the CIPD.
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‘From manpower planning to capacity planning
why we need workforce planning.’
Information
Insight
2000-2005
2013+
Data
Intelligence
1960-2000
• How will the workforce plan
contribute to strategy
• What kind of people do we
need to deliver competitive
advantage
• Should we buy or build?
2005-2013
DI³-from data to insight
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An accurate and deep
intuitive understanding
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Data Information Intelligence Insight
Strategic Workforce Planning has evolvedour organisations need more than data. They
need insight about their people to be
competitive in world markets. This is because
people are often the only source of
competitive advantage
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HR Professionals provide insight through being strategic
positioners, capability builders, change champions,
innovators and integrators. We do this on the back of an
evidence based approach to people management. SWP
helps us to look for connections and solutions.
What does this mean in practice?
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Strategic workforce planning allows us to move from data to
statistics to analytics and then add an extra ingredient
People Statistics
Collecting data
Analysis of core
HR activity
HR Planning
Linking human capital investment
to business results
Operational planning- skill based
routing etc.
HR Forecasting
Gap analysis
HR Analytics
Human Capital Analytics
Predictive modelling
ROI and performance profiling
Strategic Workforce Planning
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Today we will look at three important questions:
1.What is strategic workforce planning
2.How does it contribute to the organisation’s
success
3.What is the role of HR professionals in SWP?
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Strategic Workforce Planning
Interpretations and definitions
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And so consistent definitions were developed
CIPD definition- ‘A core process of human resource management that is
shaped by the organisational strategy and ensures the right number of
people with the right skills, in the right place at the right time to deliver
short- and long-term organisation objectives.’
SHRM working definition- ‘An ongoing process to identify the workforce
needs for the future. Identification of the gap between demand and
supply for staff – workforce numbers, job roles and skills – and the
resultant degree of business risk. A critical part of corporate planning
and a driver for high impact HR strategy. A PLAN to inform business
decision-making (action and accountability)’
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Why should we bother to do Strategic
Workforce Planning?
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Objectives of Strategic Workforce Planning- 1
• To make sure we have the right people in the right
place at the right time with the right skills; predicting
future talent demands
• To ensure that the demand for people numbers,
knowledge, skills, attitudes, and values are matched
with the supply of these attributes
• To align and integrate people strategies with
organisational strategies
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Objectives of Strategic Workforce Planning- 2
• To ensure that an organisation takes account of
people as contributors to its success by recognising
their unique contribution to strategic direction and
performance- workforce planning is a business issue
• To provide a process by which people considerations
are raised early in the strategy-setting debate and to
ensure that business-based plans are put in place for
the people outcomes of this debate
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But there are other considerations in the
post recession environment
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From data to insight- important
trends in Strategic Workforce Planning
1. Strategic and flexible
2. The Rise of Big Data
3. Predictive Modelling
4. The Generational Mix
5. Talent Shortages
6. Organisation design
7. Business Strategy
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1. Strategic and flexible
SWP is growing in importance. But why bother to plan
when the world is so unpredictable?
• A compelling need to be able to shape the organization to deal with both
expected and unexpected events
• The need to control costs without damaging competitiveness
• The need to up-skill organizations
• The growing influence of the HR function
Source: Paul Turner, ‘From manpower planning to capacity building – why we need workforce planning’ CIPD 2010
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2. The Rise of Big Data
Why all of the attention on Big Data?
A recent CIPD report noted that Big data could help to:
•
•
•
•
•
Find out who’s likely to leave and how to keep them
Understand why your staff are underperforming
Know where employees should be and why
Identify whether remote working is effective
Show the holes in your recruitment process
There was an information revolution taking place in which patterns and
insights is something for all business functions- including HR
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2. The Rise of Big Data- but what is it and why is it ‘big?’
Big data spans four dimensions: Volume, Velocity, Variety, and Veracity.
There are five broad ways in which using big data can create value:
•
big data can unlock significant value by making information transparent and usable
•
as organizations create and store more transactional data in digital form, they can collect
more accurate and detailed performance information
•
big data allows ever-narrower segmentation of customers and therefore much more
precisely tailored products or services
•
sophisticated analytics can substantially improve decision-making
•
Big data can be used to improve the development of the next generation of products and
services.
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2. The Rise of Big Data (continued)
Big Data’s greatest HR value may well be as a predictive tool.
•
Analyzing the skills and attributes of high performers, Big Data allows organizations to
build a template for future hires. HR and Leaders can learn what to look for with
incredible precision.
•
Big Data is democratic, supporting a meritocracy and enabling companies to make
smarter decisions; Google has an entire HR division devoted to “people analytics”
which measures qualities such as social skills, flexibility, emotional intelligence,
initiative, attitude (negative or positive or AKA “good fit” vs “bad fit”), and
perseverance.
•
Big Data is a great people detective. It’s unbiased and discovers talent. The right
algorithms can pinpoint hidden potential by harvesting and then filtering reams of
information to deliver a star in the making.
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3. The Growth of Predictive Modelling
Four levels of HR analytical capability:
Level 1 is producing ad hoc metrics and reports that tell
“what happened.”
Workforce
planning- right
people, right
time, right skills
Level 2. Descriptive benchmarking and dashboards, which
get at “what happened, and how do we compare with
others on a defined set of metrics?”
Level 3. Advanced survey analytics, which is about “why did
it happen, and how/where can we improve?”
Level 4 is creating predictive solutions, or “what is likely to
happen, and how can we be better prepared?”
In a 2012 study of 383 organisation 12% said they had
reached Level 3.
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Baby boomers
• Born 1945 - 1964
• Shaped by: less trust in
government
Demographics and
workforce planning
Generation X
• Born 1965 - 1980
• Shaped by: Internet,
Generation Alpha
• Born 2010-2024
• Largest generation due
to the birth spike
• Most formally educated
• Even more tech savvy
than Generation Z
diversity, unemployment,
parental divorce rates
4. The
Generational
Mix
Generation Y
Generation Z
• Born 1995-2009
• Tech savvy
• Strong work ethic
• Born after 1980
• Shaped by: information
overflow, overzealous parents,
globalisation

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5. Talent shortages create real challenges for organisations in
2013- impact on the workforce plan?
The coming talent shortage took centre stage at the annual WEF conference in Davos (2011) and the
issue also has quickly become a priority among federal governments, federal agencies,
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), educational institutions, and community-based organizations
(CBOs) as well as corporations.
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5. Talent shortages create real challenges for organisations- Hay
Group Study
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6. Organisation design- from Hierarchy to Networkhow does this impact on the workforce plan?
From Hierarchy
to Network
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7. Business Strategy- approach to competitive
advantage- how can workforce planning contribute to
both viewpoints?
Source Huselid, SHRM, 2009
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‘HR needs to move beyond the present and the purely
informational into the predictive and insightful. This is the
essence of a genuine paradigm shift in the way HR functions
create value and how they are beginning to view their role in
collecting, connecting and sharing data that will influence
decisions about the future direction of the business. ‘ KPMG
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Insight, HR professionals and strategic workforce planning
Next Generation HR
Ulrich 1997
Ulrich 2013
Process
Strategic
Partner
Capability
builder
Administrative
expert
Strategy
Operations
Change Agent
Strategic
positioner
HR innovator
and
integrator
Change
champion
Employee
Champion
Technology
proponent
People
Credible Activist
HR has a critical role in providing insight
to enhance the organisation’s competitive position and capability
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Next Generation HR-But what do we mean by insight?
CIPD 2010
What are our
organisational and people
strengths?
Organisational
Insight
What is the context within
which our business is
operating and how does
this affect our people
strategy?
Context Insight
What is the nature of our
company’s competitive
advantage? What is the
role of our people in
delivering this?
Business Insight
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Insight, HR professionals in strategic workforce planning
Putting the 3 perspectives together reveals a powerful
new image
Strategic
Partner
Administrative
expert
Change Agent
Employee
Champion
Capability
builder
Strategic
positioner
HR innovator
and integrator
Change
champion
Technology
proponent
Organisational
Insight
Context Insight
Business Insight
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Workforce
By adding insight to HR analytics we are
able to address the fundamentals of
planning- right The
people strategy and management.
Strategicpeople, right
Workforce Plan is fundamental
to achieving competitive advantage
time, right skills
through people
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What are the key stages in Strategic
Workforce Planning?
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A standard workforce planning process
Market Analysis
Financial Analysis
Strategic Workforce
Plan
Business Objectives
Business Strategy
Forecast Demand
Environmental Scan
(people and resources)
People Strategy to
achieve SWP
Forecast Supply
Scenario Planning
Gap Analysis
Implementation and
operationalising of the
strategic workforce plan
Source, Paul Turner
Measures of
effectiveness
Recruitment and retention
Leadership, Talent
Reward and Engagement
Strategic Review and
Feedback to the Board

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Gap Analysis
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A standard workforce planning process –gap analysis
Gap Analysis
There is a shortfall in supply of people
needed to deliver the business strategy
There are gaps in:
Our people strategy therefore needs to
allocate resources to:
Leadership and managerial roles
Talent management
Technical Skills
Technical recruitment and training
Shortages in some geographies
Employer branding in new geographical
areas
Workforce analytics
Source, Paul Turner, 2002

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A standard workforce planning process –gap analysis
headcount
7000
6000
demand
5000
gap
Turnover
Retirements
Skills change
New business
4000
3000
supply
2000
1000
year
1
2
3
4
5
6
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A standard workforce planning process –filling the gap
headcount
7000
6000
demand
gap
Recruitment
5000
4000
3000
Training
supply
Reward
2000
1000
year
1
2
3
4
5
6
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Scenario Planning
possible future events that might affect the
organisation, and the development of
alternative actions and plans to prepare
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A standard workforce planning process- scenario planning
Business strategy
Scenario Planning
Scenario 2:
1. The external labour market fails to supply
enough people with the right skills
to fulfil projected headcount
2. Costs of labour exceed initial forecast
3. Shortfall in leadership skills
4. Failure to engage workforce to new
strategy
What are the Strategic Workforce Planning
implications?
External
Environmental
Analysis
Scenario 1:
1. Our business achieves its target
2. Exceeds it by 20%
3. Exceeds it by 50%
4. Falls short of its objectives
What are the Strategic Workforce Planning implications?
Strategic
Workforce
Plan

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A standard workforce planning process- scenario planning
Scenario Planning
What if:
Our business achieves its target
Exceeds it by 20%
Exceeds it by 50%
Falls short of its objectives
Source, Paul Turner
We test some scenarios and look for
the implications on people
management (McKinsey advocate at
least four scenarios)
What are the options:
Have a flexible workforce with new
kinds of contract
Have a supply of subcontractors
Over recruit and redeploy

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What can organisations do to make sure they
have good workforce information?
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Information used in strategic workforce planning
Source CIPD 2010
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What can organisations do to make sure they
convert information to intelligence?
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Example of Business insights and results from workforce planning
Data
Information
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Business Insights
Results
Workforce
Planning
1. Resource Needs (Current & Forecasted)
2. Workforce Related Actions
Avoid workforce
capacity shortfalls
Acquisition
& Movement
1. Effectiveness of Recruiting Efforts
2. Workforce Migration
Reduce cost of
sourcing workforce
Workforce
Performance
1. Effective Use of Top Performers
2. Impact to Retention
3. Effective Management Structure
Demographics
& Diversity
Learning &
Development
Retention
Creation of effective
management structures
1. Effectiveness of Diversity Programs
2. Early Identification of Gaps in Diversity
Early identification of
gaps in diversity
1. Effectiveness of Development Programs
2. Alignment of Progression to Development
Develop a
competitive workforce
1. Turnover Issues
2. Loss of Development Investments
Source; Jonathan Ferrar, IBM, Human Asset
2011, Budapest
Measure “churn”
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How can HR professionals provide insight in the
strategic workforce planning process?
What does this mean?
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Information
Intelligence
Insight
Data
Quantitative Information
about the workforceNumbers employed and
where; Grades,
Demographics
.
Insight
How do our people contribute
to competitive advantage?
What does the strategic
workforce plan tell us about
current and future make up of
the workforce?
How can we ensure that the
workforce is aligned with
today’s and tomorrow’s
business strategy?
Information
DI³
Internal-turnover, absence
data, demographics,
working patterns, succession
planning, talent planning,
competence levels achieved,
skills
External- labour markets
Intelligence
Internal- Workforce
knowledge and skills fit with
business strategy
Cultural fit
Change management
External- demographic trends
Predictive modelling
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What are the key challenges in
strategic workforce planning?
What can we do about them?
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Challenges and enablers of workforce planning (CIPD )
challenges
enablers
•Lack of clarity or focus in the organisation strategy
•A ‘triangle’ of conversation about future
requirements between the business, HR and finance
•A constantly shifting strategy
•Workforce champions in the business
•Too much focus on the operational and budgetary
planning at expense of longer-term planning or a
strategic direction for planning
•Having a good process that enables everyone to
feed in information and is informed by the needs of
the business
•Processes that don’t join up, meaning information
is not fed into the planning cycle or that effort is
duplicated
•HR and the line working together to understand
future people needs
•Failure to develop plans that are responsive
enough to adapt to a changing environment
•Understanding the difference between supply and
demand for labour
•Failure to review plans in the light of new
information that indicates change
•Bottom–up communication feeding the planning
process
•Poor-quality data/systems
•Good-quality data that people can believe,
accompanied by adequate analysis to explain what
it means for the business; predictive modelling
•Too much focus on the numbers of people required
and not enough on capacity and potential to develop
new skills and abilities in the future
•Leaders acting on the data to make informed
decisions
•An overcomplicated system or trying to do too
much too soon
•Regular planning cycle and reviews with feedback
into the planning process
•Lack of planning skills and good guidance on
workforce planning
•Developing managers’ workforce and resource
planning skills
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In summary- New Strategic Workforce Planning will:
• be integrated with business strategy and
planning
• be used in short-term resourcing as well as
longer-term planning
• incorporate flexibility
• and predictive modelling using data analytics
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Strategic Workforce Planning
‘A core process of human resource management’
Paul Turner