Carolyn Childs’ Presentation at Mumbrella’s Travel Marketing Summit

carolyn@mytravelresearch.com TravelResearch0 mytravelresearch.comcarolyn-childs-74653ba/
Will Supersonic
Air Travel Return?
Navigating The Travel
Trends of 2019
Carolyn Childs, CEO,
MyTravelResearch.com
11 April 2019

BIG IMAGE
2Navigating the New Abnormal

Source: https://wir2018.wid.world/files/download/wir2018-full-report-
english.pdf 3
The age of inequality

Source: https://wir2018.wid.world/files/download/wir2018-full-report-
english.pdf
4
At its highest for a century

ADD A FOOTER 5

Luxury Travel has been the ‘canary in
the coalmine’
The Pioneer
The Enrichment seekerThe Philanthropist
The Jet setterThe Dynast
The Hedonist
The Replenisher
The Lotus Eater
Indulgence Empowerment
GrowthConnection

Sources: Trendwatching, www.surfsummit, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/06/gap-years-1-wealthy-families-
take-children-trips-show-real-people/
7
Social and
economic
impact
experiences
Ultimate
Privacy
Learning
and
enrichment
The Luxury
Gap Year
Just some experiences that respond to
this

Li, H., et al. Tourism and regional income inequality: Evidence from China.
Annals of Tourism Research (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2016.02.001
By the way this is not the purpose of this chart, but it does suggest a connection between inequality and decline
8
Historically tourism was built on growing affluence – especially for the middle class.
What will tourism beyond luxury look like if inequality continues to rise?

9
The ultimate disruptive trend:
Climate change and the environment

https://theconversation.com/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism-
revealed-its-bigger-than-we-thought-96200 10
Is Tourism really a
benign player?
One in every twelve tonnes
of carbon globally is
created by tourism
Our faster growth means
our share will grow…
But our industry is also
among the most vulnerable
to change

11
The most
common
request in
focus groups…
The growth of “last
chance” tourism
Visiting the Polar Bears of Churchill Contributes nearly 80% of the carbon the average UK residents
emits in a year!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/last-chance-tourism-travel-great-barrier-reef-amazon-machu-picchu-a8363466.html

12
Most of our response looks like this….
Which is great when sustainability was a
leadership position

Source: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex,
March/April 2018 13
How can we
sustainably
manage this?
We shouldn’t assume that customers with
smaller budgets don’t care
“Some of the products we sell are under £1,
so do they really care about the ethics,
values and principles of the company behind
it? We did some research and absolutely,
fundamentally, the resounding answer was
yes,” Michele Oliver, Mars”
And we have to care even if they don’t

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NAVIGATING IT FOR YOURSELF..
CAROLYN’S 4 LAWS OF TRENDS
15

Law No.1
Trends arise when changes
in external factors like
technology or demography
collide with eternal, unmet
or underserved needs
16

17
The most
common
request in
focus groups…
Beam me up, Scotty!

18
www.spikeaerospace.com
The Spike S-512 is expecting to launch an 18-seat ‘low
emissions’, no sonic boom supersonic jet in 2023

19
It predicts there will be demand of 13
million passengers by 2025
Source:
http://www.spikeaerospace.com/s
pike-aerospace-predicts-
supersonic-market-exceeds-13-
million-annually/
Based on Spike Aerospace,
IATA, GAMA, FlightGlobal, FAA
data

20
Boom is testing the prototype of its 55-
seat aircraft and has 76 orders
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/98939628/boom-supersonic-gets-76-orders-and-test-flights-set-to-start-in-2018

21
It’s not just faster, we
want ‘to boldly go’
further than ever
• After 1-year, QF LON-PER runs at 94% load
factor
• And has generated $2.3m in spending by transit
pax at Perth Airport
• In 2013, Singapore Airlines dropped its SIN-
NYC route
• In 2019, it re-launched SIN-EWR @18-20 hours
‘the longest flight - for now’
• NZ, EK and QR are all part of the ‘Ultra-Long-
Haul’ Club
• In ‘Project Sunrise’ Qantas challenged the big
two to deliver LON-SYD non-stop
https://thewest.com.au/business/aviation/the-staggering-statistics-behind-qantas-first-year-of-its-perth-to-london-service-ng-b881145764z
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44393135

22
In future we may not e
need a runway
https://www.darpa.mil/ddm_gallery/VTOLXPlane.jpg
https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/slideshow/need-a-lift-get-around-town-on-one-of-these-vtols/lilium-jet/

Law No.2
A simple equation divides
trends from fads
Fad < 1 year > Trend
23

24
1. Our competition is truly stellar
2. What’s a tourism business anyway?
3. The changing nature of customers: Generations, Accessible, #MeOnly Tourism
4. The experience economy is a universal need – think niche, not experience
5. Emerging niches: transgressive, new hedonism, religious tourism, philanthrotourism
6. The age of the cyborg
7. The end of Shiny and the beginning of Shining
8. Regulation comes to Big Tech
9. Netizen 2.0 begins to emerge
So the good news is that all the trends I
discussed last year would still apply

Are you missing a multi-billion dollar
market?
Image source: Travability
Sources: Tourism Research Australia,
Travability, ENAT, EU, Business
Disability Forum
25
In Australia, the accessible sector is worth $10.8 bn
The value of the EU accessible tourism market is EUR369bn
With better supply the
sector could be 44%
larger
NOT servicing this
sector costs UK
businesses
GBP 21.6bn a year!

SOURCE: https://www.slideshare.net/EzzedineGHLAMALLAH/state-of-the-global-
islamic-economy-20172018, Halal Travel
26
Halal Travel
“A big aspect of travelling for
everyone is trying out new
cuisines. It’s not just a question
of finding halal food, but finding
authentic local food that is also
halal.”
Soumaya Hamdi, Halal Travel Guide
Like their sisters, Hamdi notes
Muslim women are increasingly
choosing #MeOnly or small
group women only tours

Law No.3
27
Every trend has an opposite and (not
quite) equal reaction
Counter trends can present big opportunities

BIG IMAGE
28
In a world of brand purpose is there a place for #badass brands?

Sources: CIM: https://www.marketingweek.com/2018/05/25/despite-
gdpr-consumers-dont-understand-how-brands-use-data/
https://www2.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/industry/retail-
distribution/sharing-personal-information-consumer-privacy-
concerns.html
29
What consumers feel in the age of mistrust
And what they do
Most consumers do not change their behaviour!
Make it easy for them not to have to

https://www.digitalnutrition.com.au/
http://www.empathymuseum.com/ 30
Counter trends can go mainstream:
The Big Rebalancing is coming

ADD A FOOTER 31
Why are trends like Liverpool
supporters?
Because they never walk alone

Law No.4
32
Any single trend is like a single thread
in a lace pattern. To exploit it fully you
need to see the whole pattern

33
(A simplified map of) its connected trends
The female solo traveller
Female Economic
Empowerment
Changing
generations
New feminismMeet the Modern
Family
Multi- and skip-
generational travel
Travel with Pets
The
Experience
Economy

34
And finally…
Remember when applying
trends to make it relevant
to your organisation and
your risk/reward profile

THANK YOU!

Carolyn Childs’ Presentation at Mumbrella’s Travel Marketing Summit

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Carolyn Childs’ Presentation at Mumbrella’s Travel Marketing Summit