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To	
  Na0onal	
  Religious	
  Broadcasters	
  
Nashville	
  –	
  February	
  24,	
  2014	
  

The	
  Great	
  Disrup.on	
  

Three	
  Digital	
  Revolu0ons	
  and	
  Those	
  Yet	
  
to	
  Come	
  	
  
Lee	
  Rainie	
  -­‐	
  @lrainie	
  
Director,	
  PRC	
  Internet	
  Project	
  
Big	
  points	
  
•  We	
  live	
  in	
  a	
  world	
  of	
  “networked	
  individuals”	
  
prac0cing	
  “networked	
  individualism”	
  
•  Three	
  technology	
  revolu0ons	
  have	
  pushed	
  
along	
  	
  pre-­‐exis0ng	
  trends	
  towards	
  NI	
  
•  People’s	
  experience	
  of	
  media	
  is	
  orchestrated	
  
by	
  their	
  social	
  networks	
  and	
  expanded	
  by	
  
social	
  media	
  
•  The	
  next	
  technology	
  revolu0ons	
  are	
  clearly	
  
evident	
  now	
  …	
  so	
  be	
  prepared	
  
1)	
  We	
  live	
  in	
  a	
  world	
  of	
  
“networked	
  individuals”	
  prac0cing	
  
“networked	
  individualism”	
  
Networked	
  Individualism	
  
The	
  move	
  to	
  looser,	
  far-­‐flung	
  networks	
  
Personal	
  networks	
  are:	
  
More	
  important	
  –	
  trust,	
  influence	
  awareness	
  
Differently	
  composed	
  –	
  segmented,	
  layered	
  
Perform	
  new	
  func.ons	
  –	
  sentries,	
  evaluators,	
  
audience	
  
But	
  it	
  is	
  not	
  just	
  technological	
  story	
  
Other	
  drivers	
  are	
  changes	
  in	
  …	
  
Iden.ty	
  shiIs	
  –	
  star.ng	
  with	
  
religion	
  &	
  poli.cs	
  
Family	
  life	
  changes	
  
Business	
  structures	
  &	
  labor	
  shiIs	
  
Transporta.on	
  &	
  living	
  paMerns	
  
…	
  then	
  comes	
  technology	
  
2)	
  Three	
  technology	
  revolu0ons	
  
have	
  pushed	
  along	
  	
  pre-­‐exis0ng	
  
trends	
  towards	
  networked	
  
individualism	
  
First:	
  Internet	
  and	
  broadband	
  
Internet	
  adop0on	
  1995-­‐2014	
  
First:	
  Internet	
  and	
  broadband	
  
Broadband	
  adop0on	
  2000-­‐2013	
  
Dial-­‐up	
  

Broadband	
  

100%	
  

70%	
  

80%	
  

60%	
  

40%	
  

3%	
  

20%	
  

0%	
  
June	
  
2000	
  

April	
   March	
   March	
   April	
   March	
   March	
   March	
   April	
  
2001	
   2002	
   2003	
   2004	
   2005	
   2006	
   2007	
   2008	
  

April	
  
2009	
  

May	
  
2010	
  

Aug	
  
2011	
  

April	
  
2012	
  

May	
  
2013	
  
Second:	
  Wireless	
  connec0vity	
  
Mobile	
  –	
  90%	
  …	
  smartphone	
  58%	
  …	
  tablets	
  42%	
  
326.4	
  
Total	
  U.S.	
  
popula.on:	
  
319	
  million	
  

	
  2013	
  
Third:	
  Social	
  media	
  
61%	
  of	
  all	
  adults	
  
18-­‐29	
  
100%	
  

30-­‐49	
  

50-­‐64	
  

65+	
  

%	
  of	
  internet	
  users	
  

89%	
  
78%	
  

80%	
  

60%	
  

60%	
  

43%	
  

40%	
  
20%	
  

9%	
   7%	
  
0%	
   6%	
  
2005	
  

1%	
  

2006	
  

2007	
  

2008	
  

2009	
  

2010	
  

2011	
  

2012	
  

2013	
  
3)	
  People’s	
  experience	
  of	
  media	
  is	
  
orchestrated	
  by	
  their	
  social	
  networks	
  
and	
  expanded	
  by	
  social	
  media	
  
Impacts	
  
•  Informa0on	
  flows	
  change	
  –	
  my	
  network,	
  my	
  playlist	
  	
  
•  Shibing	
  0me	
  and	
  acen0on	
  
•  Changed	
  rela0onships	
  to	
  larger	
  ins0tu0ons	
  
(including	
  media	
  organiza0ons)	
  	
  
–  Every	
  organiza0on	
  a	
  media	
  company	
  and	
  a	
  node	
  
–  Every	
  individual	
  a	
  brand	
  
•  Amateurs	
  rise	
  to	
  sit	
  alongside	
  and	
  some0mes	
  
challenge	
  experts	
  
•  Conversa0ons	
  and	
  disputes	
  are	
  much	
  more	
  drawn	
  
out	
  
4)	
  The	
  next	
  technology	
  revolu0ons	
  are	
  
clearly	
  evident	
  now	
  …	
  so	
  be	
  prepared	
  
th	
  revolu0on	
  +++	
  
4

•  Internet	
  fades	
  into	
  the	
  environment	
  as	
  the	
  
“internet	
  of	
  things”	
  expands	
  and	
  “big	
  data”	
  
mushrooms	
  
•  Interfaces	
  change	
  –	
  gesture,	
  voice	
  
•  Personal	
  connec0vity	
  grows	
  	
  
•  Search	
  expands	
  to	
  all	
  media	
  
•  Surveillance	
  takes	
  new	
  forms	
  
•  Personal	
  empowerment	
  develops	
  (3D	
  prin0ng)	
  
–	
  Maker	
  culture	
  
Your	
  map	
  is	
  wrong	
  

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National Religious Broadcasters Address on the Ongoing Digital Revolution

  • 1. To  Na0onal  Religious  Broadcasters   Nashville  –  February  24,  2014   The  Great  Disrup.on   Three  Digital  Revolu0ons  and  Those  Yet   to  Come     Lee  Rainie  -­‐  @lrainie   Director,  PRC  Internet  Project  
  • 2.
  • 3. Big  points   •  We  live  in  a  world  of  “networked  individuals”   prac0cing  “networked  individualism”   •  Three  technology  revolu0ons  have  pushed   along    pre-­‐exis0ng  trends  towards  NI   •  People’s  experience  of  media  is  orchestrated   by  their  social  networks  and  expanded  by   social  media   •  The  next  technology  revolu0ons  are  clearly   evident  now  …  so  be  prepared  
  • 4. 1)  We  live  in  a  world  of   “networked  individuals”  prac0cing   “networked  individualism”  
  • 5. Networked  Individualism   The  move  to  looser,  far-­‐flung  networks  
  • 6. Personal  networks  are:   More  important  –  trust,  influence  awareness   Differently  composed  –  segmented,  layered   Perform  new  func.ons  –  sentries,  evaluators,   audience  
  • 7. But  it  is  not  just  technological  story   Other  drivers  are  changes  in  …   Iden.ty  shiIs  –  star.ng  with   religion  &  poli.cs   Family  life  changes   Business  structures  &  labor  shiIs   Transporta.on  &  living  paMerns   …  then  comes  technology  
  • 8. 2)  Three  technology  revolu0ons   have  pushed  along    pre-­‐exis0ng   trends  towards  networked   individualism  
  • 9. First:  Internet  and  broadband   Internet  adop0on  1995-­‐2014  
  • 10. First:  Internet  and  broadband   Broadband  adop0on  2000-­‐2013   Dial-­‐up   Broadband   100%   70%   80%   60%   40%   3%   20%   0%   June   2000   April   March   March   April   March   March   March   April   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   April   2009   May   2010   Aug   2011   April   2012   May   2013  
  • 11. Second:  Wireless  connec0vity   Mobile  –  90%  …  smartphone  58%  …  tablets  42%   326.4   Total  U.S.   popula.on:   319  million    2013  
  • 12. Third:  Social  media   61%  of  all  adults   18-­‐29   100%   30-­‐49   50-­‐64   65+   %  of  internet  users   89%   78%   80%   60%   60%   43%   40%   20%   9%   7%   0%   6%   2005   1%   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013  
  • 13. 3)  People’s  experience  of  media  is   orchestrated  by  their  social  networks   and  expanded  by  social  media  
  • 14. Impacts   •  Informa0on  flows  change  –  my  network,  my  playlist     •  Shibing  0me  and  acen0on   •  Changed  rela0onships  to  larger  ins0tu0ons   (including  media  organiza0ons)     –  Every  organiza0on  a  media  company  and  a  node   –  Every  individual  a  brand   •  Amateurs  rise  to  sit  alongside  and  some0mes   challenge  experts   •  Conversa0ons  and  disputes  are  much  more  drawn   out  
  • 15.
  • 16. 4)  The  next  technology  revolu0ons  are   clearly  evident  now  …  so  be  prepared  
  • 17. th  revolu0on  +++   4 •  Internet  fades  into  the  environment  as  the   “internet  of  things”  expands  and  “big  data”   mushrooms   •  Interfaces  change  –  gesture,  voice   •  Personal  connec0vity  grows     •  Search  expands  to  all  media   •  Surveillance  takes  new  forms   •  Personal  empowerment  develops  (3D  prin0ng)   –  Maker  culture  
  • 18. Your  map  is  wrong