This webinar is a unique collaboration between agencies that promote New Zealand and Australian international education – Education New Zealand and Austrade. Kadi Taylor also throws into the mix the perspective of an education provider that straddles both sides of the Tasman, Navitas.
The presenters bring together disparate data sets from both destinations to illuminate the lead indicator data trends, compare these trends and provide qualitative context to how these played out in these major international education destinations.
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ANZAC perspectives: Strategies, leading indicators and busting international education myths in Australia and New Zealand
1. Greg Scott – Education New Zealand
Rebecca Hall – Austrade
Kadi Taylor – Navitas
ANZAC
perspectives
Strategies, leading
indicators and busting
international education
myths in Australia and New
Zealand
3. Purpose of this session
Lag indicators Lead indicators
UNESCO tertiary mobile student data
Enrolments, commencements
Satisfaction reports
Visa grants
Student search behaviour
Provider inquiries/applications
5. New Zealand’s strategy and focus
New Zealand’s Strategy is celebrating it’s first birthday and education reform is underway
6. Australia has a plethora of strategies to guide international education
Shared focus on marketing and promotion, student
experience (employability), advocacy and industry
alignment
7. Global market for international ed is shifting
“We are in a new period of profound instability in international higher education”
Year on year % change in student visas issued by study destination*
Data based on Australia – total, NZ – full-fee paying, UK - offshore, non-EU only, Canada – total, US – HE only
Sources: Australia Dept of Home Affairs, Canada CIC, NZ Department of Labour (Immigration), UK Home Office, US Institute of International Education. Open Doors Report.
* USA visa data not shown as it is not comparable to previous years due to changes in visa policy and processes; alternatively Open Doors new enrolments data is shown
8. Aussie and Kiwi share of global student flows
There are 4.8 million international students and we collectively attract 8% of them
Australia
6.6% market share
3rd destination (maybe 2nd – data lag)
International students account for 1 in
50 people in Australia
New Zealand
1.1% market share
23rd destination
International students account for 1 in
40 people in New Zealand
9. What are the lead indicators telling us?
Changing market conditions, onshore policy and visa settings have all impacted student flows
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Offshore primary visa grants
Higher Education ELICOS Schools VET
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
First-Time Student Visas (FSV)
Universities ELICOS VET Schools
10. What is the make-up of our student cohorts?
The top 5 markets account for 59% and 66% of students in Australia and New Zealand respectively
This is what our student enrolments would look like if our cohorts were represented as 100 students
| China | India | Nepal | Japan | South Korea | Brazil | Malaysia | Thailand |
11. Kiwi First-time Student Visa trends by market
The best lead indicator we have at the moment is visas granted. Both New Zealand and
Australia are seeing a flattening in grants and conversion
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
India China USA Japan Brazil Korea Germany Thailand Philippines Viet Nam
Top 10 Markets for FSV, all sectors
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
12. [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
China India Nepal Brazil Colombia Vietnam Korea, South Malaysia Philippines USA
Top ten markets for primary visa grants by client location (July 2018 - May 2019)
Onshore Offshore
Aussie Offshore Visa grants by market
Australia’s offshore visa grants growth is buoyed by continued growth from India and Nepal, but
when overlaid with onshore visa growth there are more onshore pathways than ever in Australia
13. [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Other
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Perth
Adelaide
Gold Coast
ACT
Hobart
Newcastle and Lake Macquarie
Sunshine Coast
Top 10 regions by enrolments, with growth / decline on 2017
2018 2017
Regional lens – Australia
Australia has more than 30 regional study destinations and we are focused on ensuring
more students experience all that Australia has to offer
Regional PSWR
extension for
bachelor students
#gobeyond 2.0
digital campaign
in development
14. Regional lens – Australia
Australia has more than 30 regional study destinations and we are focused on ensuring
more students experience all that Australia has to offer
Regional PSWR
extension for
bachelor students
#gobeyond 2.0
digital campaign
in development
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Other
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Perth
Adelaide
Gold Coast
ACT
Hobart
Newcastle and Lake Macquarie
Sunshine Coast
Top 10 regions by enrolments in 2018, with sector split
ELICOS Higher Education Non-award Schools VET
15. Regional lens – New Zealand
AKL remains dominant but growth and more capacity in regions
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
Uni PTE ITP Schools ELS
Wellington
Waikato
Otago
Rest of SI
Rest of NI
Canterbury
Bay of Plenty
Auckland
16. Regional lens – New Zealand
Regional
Partnership
Programme
PSWR
extension
outside
AKL
AKL remains dominant but growth and more capacity in regions
-15%
+4%
+19%
+37%
-16%
+3%
-8%
-10%
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Bay of Plenty
Canterbury
Rest of NI
Rest of SI
Otago
Waikato
Wellington
Auckland
2018 2017
17. Different trends in Kiwi and Aussie postgrad space
Two different stories in the postgraduate market – significant growth in masters by course
work in Australia and continued growth in doctoral programs for New Zealand
18. Difficult to compare the pair – trends in Kiwi and Aussie VET
In vocational education and training, its hard to compare the sectors – with different scale,
providers and market conditions
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2016 2017 2018
VET annual enrolments, by level of study
Advance Diploma & Associate Degree
Diploma
Certificate 4
Certificate 1-3
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2016 2017 2018
ITP/PTE enrolments, by level of study
Certificates 1-3 Certificates 4 Certs/Dips 5-7
19. -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
485 Temporary graduate visa (FTYD May)
Graduate Work Post-Study Work
Post study work right trends
A key pull factor for international students is the availability of post study work rights. In both Australia and
New Zealand policy has been adapted to respond to market needs and based on new global study are
leading the world
Global Practice in Employability and Work Rights www.ieaa.org.au/research/reports
20. Kiwi digital lead indictors
ENZ has invested in a digital attraction engine to better match
supply and demand
21. Aussie digital lead indictors
Australia's digital platforms are being refreshed and there is an opportunity to improve – and learn from
our counterparts in New Zealand
Study in Australia 2018-19 Audience Overview
Countries Demographics
Search terms
27. Organising framework – IDP ‘Running People’ +
Plus +
Tyranny of
distance
Vibe of the
place
Government
policy
approach
2018
28. Affordability
Auckland perceived as
expensive, but elsewhere
affordable
Fees have been reasonable,
but perception
Major cities: expensive, but
regional locations affordable
Fees seen as
29. Quality of education
Quality providers, but few of them
Quality student experience
Single school qualification –
globally marketable
Six universities globally ranked
Diverse offerings in many
different locations
30. Safety
Stable, welcoming Western
democracy
Some concerns after
Christchurch shooting and
residual from earthquakes
Stable, welcoming Western
democracy
Some concerns around mental
health & personal safety
31. Graduate employment opportunities
Favourable post study work
rights (HE focussed)
Perception – few opportunities
Favourable post study work
rights (HE focussed)
Additional incentives for
regional study
32. Visa requirements
Negative impact on the perception
of NZ due to delays in visa
turnaround times
Negative impact in market of Rule
18 changes made by NZQA
Lack of transparency around Genuine
Temporary Entrant (GTE) in visa
rejections
Issues with onshore market – transfers
and potentially the interplay between
tourists and students in a key market
33. Tyranny of distance
Not the
ANZACs
Perception that New Zealand
is very far from home
Improving air routes will be
important
Australia slightly closer to key
markets, but still perceived as
being a long way away
34. Vibe of the place (order changes if we include weather)
Canucks +
ANZACs
Welcoming, relaxed, nature and
outdoor experiences
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern –
popular and a role model
Perception of being a bit small
Welcoming, more than one ‘global
city’
Great weather
Easy going people
35. Government policy approach
Aussies
Canucks
Perceived lack of consultation and
coordination
Perceived (and real) bias against
private education
Clear strategy set out
Room for improvement, but consults on
major changes
Viewed as important to economic growth
Strategy & Council on International Ed
41. New Zealand classes are full of Chinese students
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Uni Schools VET EL
Top 5 markets overall by sector
China India Japan Korea Brazil Rest
42. NZ is too small – there are no big opportunities
43. NZ is too small – there are no big opportunities
44. Thank you
For further information please contact
Kadi Taylor – kadi.taylor@navitas.com
Notas del editor
Rebecca
Its not to go head to head to try and even the score from last months netball. Its not to gloat about how any team and or country is doing it better than the other. Think of this as a joint strategy and reflection session – what's working, what's not, what can we learn from each other. And how do we create a team that competes on the world stage to grow strong and sustainable international education experiences in Australia and New Zealand.
Our aspiration today is to deliver a joined up session that doesn’t involve a static presentation from a country perspective – one following the other.
We have leveraged an Australian Government project building on UNESCO data, to match tertiary student mobility data flows to interrogate and align data and to offer you a shared ANZAC perspective. Yet this data is 2 years out of date, as we will show you – there are other more up to date datasets we can draw on.
We are working to improve data interoperability and this presentation is our first.
We are also keen to dispel some myths, particularly in this environment of headlines becoming issues and the way we consume digital media. I know some of you are wondering why this is here- well it’s the first image that comes up on google search in Australia. I had to scroll down 3 stories to get the real one.
To do this we will draw on range of data sets ( visa grants, commencements, post study work rights and search behaviour) as directly comparable data for each country. Ultimately, in order for us to respond more quickly in times of change, we are keen to co-create leading indicators for the sector.
We can also add much rich insight to the data through better gathering intelligence from the field. And be warned, there is a fair bit of data but we are also trying to show this to you in new ways.
A leading indicator is a predictive measurement, for example; the percentage of people wearing hard hats on a building site is a leading safety indicator. A lagging indicator is an output measurement, for example; the number of accidents on a building site is a lagging safety indicator. The difference between the two is a leading indicator can influence change and a lagging indicator can only record what has happened.
Greg – purpose 2
We are also keen to dispel some myths, particularly in this environment of headlines becoming issues and the way we consume digital media. I know some of you are wondering why this is here- well it’s the first image that comes up on google search in Australia. I had to scroll down 3 stories to get the real one. (Rebecca clarify please)
There is animation on this slide so remember to press down again to get the “Busting the myths” picture
Greg
So lets start with strategy. This conference is the first birthday of our International Education Strategy. This has a 12 year horizon through to 2030 but some shorter (1-5 years) and some longer (5-10 year) term priorities and deliverables. It reflects a broader government view of international education with a focus on delivering a broader definition of value to all New Zealanders.
Three strands of “Quality Education experience”, Sustainable Growth” and Global Citizenship require new partnerships, new products and new approaches to markets, as well as a focus on internationalisation.
New Zealand’s priorities for economic development in our regions and attracting/retaining talent in areas of future skills requirements are a focus of a range of government strategies.
Meanwhile, government has commenced the most ambitious education reform agenda in a generation (diagram above). Many of these will impact international education and our place in the world, directly or indirectly.
Rebecca
Contrasting Australia’s strategy environment – it’s a busy space.
Australia’s first national international education strategy was said to be in 2015 - and that’s right but cities and states have been strategizing on international education for almost 20 years.
It’s a function of the Australian system and our federation- there are benefits and issues. Right now we are focused on how we make the most this investment.
Alignment is key and Australia’s efforts under a nation brand will help us do this
Our main strategies have a lifecycle up to 2025 and mid cycle evaluation will probably take place in 2019-2020
There are other policies that impact international education –such as migration under the recent population strategy
Reducing the migration cap by 15% and incentivising more new migrants to settle outside the big cities where there are jobs and services
Reducing the migration ceiling from 190,000 to 160,000 places.
Introducing two new regional visas for skilled workers requiring them to live and work in regional Australia for three years before being able to access permanent residence. 23,000 places will be set aside for these regional visas.
Introducing new tertiary scholarships to attract Australian and international students to study in regional Australia ($15,000 scholarships will be available to more than 1000 domestic and international students each year).
Giving international students studying at regional universities access to an additional year in Australia on a post-study work visa.
A range of other impacting policies – where education is not the lead area but we are impacted.
I’ll talk more about this later when we come to some of the regional data.
The sudden rise in nationalism and populism in many countries has implications for higher education
https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/world-view/dramatic-instability-international-higher-education
We would need to update this to 2018 figures if we want to use
Acknowledgements: IDP Australia and https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/world-view/dramatic-instability-international-higher-education
Hans de Wit, https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/world-view/dramatic-instability-international-higher-education
Rebecca
As mentioned it was the EGI student flows project, building on UNESCO data that started this conversation. We realised how out of the date the data is and the fact that data can be hard to compare.
We know that there are conversations underway in both our countries to focus more on value over volume and not be in a race for market share.
We also know given the size of our countries and economies the success of international education is astounding
Recent IEAA Broadening Our Horizons project promotes that 1 in 50 people in Australia are international students.
We did the same for NZ and its xx.
Means on a per capita basis we are really punching above our weight. It also means in both markets we have been looking at issues of
Yield
Regional dispersal
capacity and social license
UNESCO 2016, tertiary flows
The numbers of internationally mobile students are increasing and destinations diversifying. “Internationally mobile students” typically hold a non-resident visa status (sometimes called a student’s visa) to pursue a tertiary degree (or higher) in the destination country. These individuals are also called “degree-mobile students”, to emphasize the fact that they would be granted a foreign degree, and to distinguish them from “credit-mobile students” on short exchange or study-abroad trips.
In 2016, there were over 4.8 million international students, up from 2 million in 2000 (UNESCO, 2018). More than half of these were enrolled in educational programmes in six countries: The United States of America, the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany and the Russian Federation. Prominent sending countries of international students include China, India, Germany, South Korea, Nigeria, France, Saudi Arabia and several Central Asian countries (ibid.).
The volume of official development assistance flows for scholarships in 2016 stood at USD 1229 million (UNDESA, 2018). This data can be used to monitor SDG commitments on student mobility, by measuring money spent on global scholarships.
Studies of internationally mobile students tend to focus on the conditions (push and pull factors) that motivate students to study overseas; but policymakers are also interested in international students because they can become highly skilled immigrants in the future.
Greg / Rebecca
So lets now jump deeper into the data
Here we are looking at first time visa held ( in NZ ) offshore primary visa grant ( in Australian) to May 2019
NZ ELS - 39% were student visa holders, 48% on visitor visas and 12% on work visas
Independent ELICOS included – note other ELICOS students (Visitor, Working holiday visas)
For any Australian in the audience you will know that removing onshore visa holders takes out xx % of applicants
Schools sector, with high reliance on China is experiencing declines. Higher education continues to grow with main growth in masters by course work and for first time PG commencements overtaking UG.
ELICOS flat lined but we know other ELICOS students as tourists and WHM
and VET growth, but really only off the back of two markets – Nepal and India
Greg
Note: The top 5 markets account for 59 in AUS and 66 in NZ
CHECK – is this enrolments or commencements and what period?
Put simply if onshore international students in each country were represented as 100 enrolments
For Australia
29 students from China
11 from india
6 from Nepal
5 from Brazil
4 from Malaysia
3 from South Korea
And for New Zealand
32 from China
16 from India
8 from Japan
5 from South Korea
3 from Thailand
3 from Brazil
Greg
To May 2019
India
China
USA
Japan
Brazil
Korea
Germany
Thailand
Philippines
Vietnam
Rebecca
Mystique to add in new overlay with onshore visa numbers
Nepal once again the outlier for Australia and also significant growth from Philippines
Rebecca
Lets move to a regional lens now - as mentioned govt policy on population strategy, new campaigns, additional PSWR, focus on destination management and marketing
This is Enrolments
Rebecca
Lets move to a regional lens now - as mentioned govt policy on population strategy, new campaigns, additional PSWR, focus on destination management and marketing
This is Enrolments
Greg
Greg
Greg
Change the colours so they match up
Bachelor: Bachelor degree & Bachelor honours
Graduate Certificate, Graduate
Masters by Coursework
HDR: Masters Research, Masters Extended and Doctoral
Rebecca
Is this comparing apples and apples –
Can we see Australia split out by public and or private?
What % of Australian vet students are from 5 markets ?
Rebecca
Note the release of the ASQA strategic review of international VET
Greg – comment on VET environment and policy changes
Greg then Rebecca
Recent research released at IEAA and led by Brett Berquest shows that both Australia and NZ are at the forefront of work rights and employability initiatives
The data will be somewhat affected by the fact that we’ve moved from two PSWV types (open and then followed by employer assisted) to one – being the open. This will see the number of applications decrease as we’ve effectively removed an application category.
It’s also reflective of the volume in student visas. If they dip then a year or two later the PSWV numbers will also dip as the pipeline of graduates has decreased.
Greg
Rebecca
Languages:
Almost 80% of visitors have English as their browser default.
Spanish accounts for 5% with Chinese and Thai language each 2.5%.
Countries:
Half of the all the traffic comes from Australia (25%) and the next five countries (26%).
Demographics:
The majority of the audience (72%) is aged between 18-34.
Our audience is slightly more female than male.
Key terms:
“Scholarships” appear in over 130 of 3,500 different keyword search terms.
Greg / Rebecca
FILTERS: Showing 842,947 users
All Institutions, Date: Aug 01, 2018 - Jul 31, 2019, Destination country: New Zealand
FILTERS: Showing 2,848,811 users
All Institutions, Date: Aug 01, 2018 - Jul 31, 2019, Destination country: Australia
ABOUT THIS CHART: Showing where prospective students search from when doing course research. Use this graph to find new opportunities to promote
your institution for specific subjects.
SOURCE: Hotcourses International websites
Kadi
Thanks very much Greg and Rebecca, I’m sure the audience got a lot out of that tour de force across the various trends in both New Zealand and Australian international education data. I think I’m right in thinking that this is the first time we’ve attempted to compare like for like data from the two destinations and this is tricky – believe me – as a group we’ve had many discussions to iterate on how best to show what’s happening, but the more we can do the better.
My job today is to share some qualitive reflections with you all on the state of our respective destinations.
Kadi
There’s four things that qualify me to make these reflections on what happening either side of the Tasman in international education.
First, obviously being Australian I know all the important things we’ve invented or can lay claim to and have generously shared with our Kiwi brothers and sisters…
Kadi
Second, thanks to my sister marrying a young New Zealand lad, I now have Kiwi blood relations… thankfully the older one, Mila’s vowels are still sounding normal
Kadi
Third, and seriously, Navitas straddles the ditch with campuses and partnerships on either side of the Tasman.
In Australia we have 13 university partnerships that are focussed on international students as well as campuses of SAE Creative Media Institute and the Australian College of Applied Psychology that also deliver to international students, albeit in smaller numbers.
Here in Auckland, we have another campus of our SAE Creative Media Institute. And down on the South Island we have partnered with the University of Canterbury for [insert] years through UCIC to deliver pathways to the university, and more recently CCEL English language college has joined the Navitas group.
Finally, it is not just my personal reflections that I’ll be sharing today. Greg, Rebecca and I called for and received input from across all the Education New Zealand, Austrade and Navitas global network to feed into this part of the presentation. A number of the colleagues that contributed are here today, so thanks again for your time and insights.
Kadi
All told I received over 10 pages of views and perceptions in relation to a series of questions and we asked people to reflect on both New Zealand and Australia:
What is working well / what are the positive policy settings for the destination?
What is attractive about the destination?
What do agents / students / parents like about the destination?
What is detracting from the offer?
What don’t agents / students / parents like about the destination?
What myth would you bust about international education in that destination?
If you could give the government and / or international education providers one piece of advice what would it be?
As you can imagine it was a challenge to make sense of all that qualitive ‘data’. But as I dove into the feedback, it became clear to me that there was a familiar framework that I could use to organise most of the views people expressed – that being the IDP ‘Running People’ . All I had to do was just add a couple more and I’d have everything covered.
So for the next few slides, I’ll take you on a gallop through the collective wisdom on these qualitive data points:
Affordability
Quality of education
Safety
Graduate employment opportunities
Visa requirements
Tyranny of distance
Vibe of the place
Government policy approach
Kadi
Kadi
Kadi
Kadi
Kadi
Affordability
Kadi
Affordability
Kadi
Kadi
Kadi
Kadi
Kadi
As you can imagine it was a challenge to make sense of all that qualitive ‘data’.
Kadi
But, with thanks to a Department of Education and Training ‘Research Snapshot’ published in November 2018, we can officially bust this myth here today.
UniSA – 44% = 17%
UniMelb – 42% = 33%
ANU – 39% = 31%
UNSW – 36% = 26%
UTS – 36% = 30%
UniSyd – 35% = 35%
Monash – 35% 31%
REMEMEBER – there’s an animation on this slide so at the end – hit the Enter key to get “BUSTED” to fly up
Kadi
As you can imagine it was a challenge to make sense of all that qualitive ‘data’.
Kadi
But, with thanks to a Department of Education and Training ‘Research Snapshot’ published in November 2018, we can officially bust this myth here today.
UniSA – 44% = 17%
UniMelb – 42% = 33%
ANU – 39% = 31%
UNSW – 36% = 26%
UTS – 36% = 30%
UniSyd – 35% = 35%
Monash – 35% 31%
REMEMEBER – there’s an animation on this slide so at the end – hit the Enter key to get “BUSTED” to fly up
Kadi
As you can imagine it was a challenge to make sense of all that qualitive ‘data’.
Kadi
But, with thanks to a Department of Education and Training ‘Research Snapshot’ published in November 2018, we can officially bust this myth here today.
UniSA – 44% = 17%
UniMelb – 42% = 33%
ANU – 39% = 31%
UNSW – 36% = 26%
UTS – 36% = 30%
UniSyd – 35% = 35%
Monash – 35% 31%
REMEMEBER – there’s an animation on this slide so at the end – hit the Enter key to get “BUSTED” to fly up