A review of major operational metrics for the largest public cable, satellite and wireline telco players in the US market, focused on three key consumer-facing services: TV, broadband and voice telephony. A review of total subscriber numbers and yearly and quarterly subscriber growth per provider, by the major categories (cable, satellite and telco) and overall. The deck provides insight into the growth rates in these three areas (yes, TV is still growing, though not as fast as broadband, while voice is shrinking steadily), and revenues derived from these services.
Merck Moving Beyond Passwords: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
Cable, Satellite and Telco Trends for Q3 2014
1. US Cable, Satellite and
Telco metrics for Q3 2014
Jan Dawson
Chief Analyst
(408) 744-6244
jan@jackdawresearch.com
@jandawson
2. About this deck
• This deck is provided as a public service, alongside
other data which I make available freely
• The data behind the deck is available in Excel or
Numbers format as part of a paid service from
Jackdaw Research
• Feel free to embed and download the deck
• Reporters may use individual slides from the deck –
high resolution versions available upon request
3. Company coverage
The following companies and providers
are included in the analysis in this deck:
• AT&T
• CableONE
• Cablevision
• CenturyLink
• Charter
• Comcast
• Consolidated Communications
• DirecTV
• DISH
• Mediacom
• Suddenlink
• Time Warner Cable
• Verizon
• WideOpenWest
These are the largest publicly traded companies across the markets
covered. Together, they represent the vast majority of the market. The
largest company not represented is Cox, which is privately held.
4. Notes
• This deck focuses on three groups of companies –
cable, satellite and telco – and three services: video
(TV), broadband and voice
• Not all the companies included report all metrics: E.g.:
• CenturyLink doesn’t report voice subscribers
• Most of the telcos don’t directly report revenue for
each service, so where these are shown, they are
estimates
5. Contents
1. Subscriber bases – installed base trends for individual
providers and groups of providers (cable, satellite, telco)
and for the total market
2. Year on year growth – year-on-year net adds for individual
providers and groups of providers and the total market
3. Quarterly growth – q-on-q net adds on the same basis
4. Revenues – reported and estimated revenues for selected
providers, from video, broadband and voice
7. 1. Subscriber bases
Video subscribers
• Four of the five largest companies by number of video
subscribers are engaged in proposed mergers:
Comcast (1st) and Time Warner Cable (4th), and AT&T
(5th) and DirecTV (2nd)
• Cord-cutting doesn’t appear to be eroding subscriber
numbers, which have remained remarkably stable year
on year at 90 million
• It is important to note that there are strong cyclical
trends in video adds, as will be shown later
8. 1. Subscriber bases
Video subscribers
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink
Charter Comcast Cons Comms DirecTV
DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC
Verizon WoW
8
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Video subscribers, 000s
0
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
9. 1. Subscriber bases
Video subscribers
Telco Cable
Satellite Total
9
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Video subscribers, 000s
0
Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
10. 1. Subscriber bases
Video subscribers
Total video subscribers, 000s
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
10
90,600
90,500
90,400
90,300
90,200
90,100
90,000
89,900
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
11. Video subscribers
Total video subscribers, big players, 000s
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
11
86,100
86,000
85,900
85,800
85,700
85,600
85,500
85,400
85,300
85,200
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Note: “big players” refers to the
following companies: AT&T,
Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV,
DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon
1. Subscriber bases
12. 1. Subscriber bases
Broadband subscribers
• The rankings among the set of players profiled remain
very stable, with Comcast by far the largest and AT&T
consistently in second place.
• Unlike video, which is virtually stagnant, the
broadband market continues to grow healthily, adding
around 3 million subs in the past year
• The set of players profiled here have around 75 million
subscribers between them, so fewer than there are TV
subscribers, though the gap continues to narrow.
16. Broadband subscribers
Total broadband subscribers, big players, 000s
72,000
71,000
70,000
69,000
68,000
67,000
66,000
65,000
Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
16
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Note: “big players” refers to the
following companies: AT&T,
Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV,
DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon
1. Subscriber bases
17. 1. Subscriber bases
Voice subscribers
• Voice is clearly a declining market, with the telcos suffering
the heaviest losses, but the market as a whole also
contracting rapidly
• The cable companies continue to strip subscribers away
from the telcos, almost exclusively as part of double- and
triple-play bundles, but their gains don't offset telco losses
• The set of players profiled here now has under 50 million
subscribers, and voice is by far the least adopted of the
three major services
23. 2. Year on year growth
Video growth
• There are three distinct sets of companies in the video market:
• Those gaining subscribers: principally the telcos (AT&T, Verizon and on a much smaller
scale CenturyLink), but also DirecTV, though its growth has slowed
• Those losing subscribers, including four large cable companies: Comcast, Cablevision,
Charter and Time Warner Cable
• Those oscillating between the two, including DISH and some of the smaller regional
players
• The cable players as a whole are losing about 1 million subscribers per year, while the
telcos are gaining around 1.5 million and the satellite providers are growing only slightly
when combined
• Year on year, the industry is adding a few hundred thousand subscribers, with the larger
players making gains while the smaller ones are losing them
24. 2. Year on year growth
Video net adds
Year on year video net adds, 000s
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink
Charter Comcast Cons Comms DirecTV
DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC
Verizon WoW
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
24
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
-250
-500
-750
-1,000
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
25. Video net adds
Year on year video net adds, 000s
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
25
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Telco Cable
Satellite Total
2. Year on year growth
26. 2. Year on year growth
Video net adds
Year on year video net adds, all players, 000s
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
26
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
27. 2. Year on year growth
Video net adds
Year on year video net adds, 000s, big players
Note: “big players” refers to the following
companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast,
DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
27
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
28. 2. Year on year growth
Broadband growth
• Comcast is significantly outgunning all the other
players in adding broadband subscribers, further
stretching its lead over the rest of the market
• AT&T has rebounded from a period of slower growth
recently to re-take second place in annual growth
• All other players are adding fewer than 200k per year
• The players profiled here are adding around 2.5m/yr
29. 2. Year on year growth
Broadband net adds
Year on year broadband net adds, 000s
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink Charter
Comcast Cons Comms DISH Mediacom Suddenlink
TWC Verizon WoW
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
29
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
30. 2. Year on year growth
Broadband net adds
Year on year broadband net adds, 000s
Telco Cable
Satellite Total
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
30
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
31. 2. Year on year growth
Broadband net adds
Year on year broadband net adds, all players, 000s
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
31
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
32. 2. Year on year growth
Broadband net adds
Year on year broadband net adds, 000s, big players
Note: “big players” refers to the following
companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast,
DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
32
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
33. 2. Year on year growth
Voice growth
• AT&T’s losses have been slowing slightly, perhaps
buoyed by its stronger broadband adds, while
Verizon’s continue to be fairly steady at around 700k
per year
• Comcast and Charter are adding subscribers at a
decent rate, while the other cable companies are
adding them less consistently
• The industry is losing 2-2.5 million subscribers per year,
although the rate of shrinkage appears to be slowing
34. 2. Year on year growth
Voice net adds
Year on year voice net adds, 000s
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision Charter Comcast
Cons Comms Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon
WoW
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
34
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
-3,000
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
35. 2. Year on year growth
Voice net adds
Year on year voice net adds, 000s
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
35
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
-3,000
-3,500
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Telco Cable
Total
36. 2. Year on year growth
Voice net adds
Year on year voice net adds, all players, 000s
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
36
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
37. 2. Year on year growth
Voice net adds
Year on year voice net adds, 000s, big players
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
Note: “big players” refers to the following
companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast,
DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
37
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
39. 3. Quarterly growth
Video growth
• Video growth is extremely cyclical, especially for the
cable companies, with Q2 typically the worst quarter
and Q1 the strongest
• However, on balance, the industry has been adding
subscribers in all but the second quarter, although this
past quarter saw slight shrinkage among this group
• The telcos are adding 300-400k subs per quarter,
while the satellite providers see some cyclicality too
40. 3. Quarterly growth
Video net adds
Quarter on quarter video net adds, 000s
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink
Charter Comcast Cons Comms DirecTV
DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC
Verizon WoW
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
40
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
41. 3. Quarterly growth
Video net adds
Quarter on quarter video net adds, 000s
Telco Cable
Satellite Total
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
41
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
42. 3. Quarterly growth
Video net adds
Quarter on quarter video net adds, all players, 000s
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
42
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
43. 3. Quarterly growth
Video net adds
Quarter on quarter video net adds, 000s, big players
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
Note: “big players” refers to the following
companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast,
DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
43
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
44. 3. Quarterly growth
Broadband growth
• Broadband is also highly cyclical, and again
especially for the cable companies, although the
telcos see some of the same trends
• However, this group adds subscribers every
quarter, even during the slow second quarter
• In the first quarter, this group adds over a million
subscribers, while in the slower quarters it may be
as few as two or three hundred thousand
45. 3. Quarterly growth
Broadband net adds
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink Charter
Comcast Cons Comms DISH Mediacom Suddenlink
TWC Verizon WoW
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
45
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
46. 3. Quarterly growth
Broadband net adds
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
46
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Telco Cable
Satellite Total
47. 3. Quarterly growth
Broadband net adds
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, all players, 000s
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
47
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
48. 3. Quarterly growth
Broadband net adds
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s, big players
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Note: “big players” refers to the
following companies: AT&T,
Cablevision, Charter, Comcast,
DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner
Cable and Verizon
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
48
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
49. 3. Quarterly growth
Voice growth
• There is some cyclicality in voice growth, too,
though here it is the third quarter which typically
sees the greatest declines
• The cable companies in our sample add
subscribers every quarter, even the slow Q3, while
the telcos lose subscribers every quarter
50. 3. Quarterly growth
Voice net adds
Quarter on quarter voice net adds, 000s
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision Charter Comcast
Cons Comms Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon
WoW
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
50
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
51. 3. Quarterly growth
Voice net adds
Quarter on quarter voice net adds, 000s
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
51
500
250
0
-250
-500
-750
-1,000
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Telco Cable
Total
52. 3. Quarterly growth
Voice net adds
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, all players, 000s
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
52
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
53. Voice net adds
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s, big players
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
53
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Note: “big players” refers to the following
companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast,
DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon
3. Quarterly growth
55. Video revenues
4. Revenues
• Even though Comcast is the largest video provider by subs, DirecTV
has the highest video revenues, since it sells its TV services on a
standalone basis and therefore doesn’t offer bundled discounts
• Our estimates for AT&T and Verizon put them in 5th and 6th place
for video revenues respectively
• Combining AT&T and DirecTV would make by far the largest
company by revenues, even if Comcast and Time Warner Cable also
merge
• These companies generate almost $100 billion in revenue a year
from their TV services, or around $1000 per subscriber per year
56. Video revenues
AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DirecTV DISH
Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon
56
3. Revenues
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Video revenues, $m
0
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
4.
57. Video revenues
Telco Cable
Total Satellite
57
4. Revenues
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
Video revenues, $m
0
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
58. 4. Revenues
Broadband revenues
• When it comes to broadband, Comcast claims top
spot in revenues as well as subs, with AT&T, Time
Warner Cable and Verizon filling out the top four
spots
• Revenues are growing for all categories of players,
and total revenues are over $9 billion per quarter,
or almost $40 billion per year, from just the
companies for which we have reported or
estimated data
61. Voice revenues
4. Revenues
• Total voice revenues for this group are now well
below $5 billion per quarter, and falling rapidly,
due to both erosion of ARPUs and falling
subscriber numbers
• Even though subscriber numbers are very similar
between this set of telcos and this set of cable
companies, there is still a significant revenue gap,
with telcos generating far more revenue per
subscriber from voice than the cable companies
64. Revenue per user
4. Revenues
• The data on the following slides is estimated and/or
derived from reported revenue and subscriber numbers
• It shows a huge range in average revenue per user for
video, from $45-100 per month, with the satellite and telco
providers generating the highest revenue per user
• Broadband revenue per user is much more clustered,
around $40-50 for month, for most providers
• Voice revenue per user is declining at most providers, but
most notably at Charter, where it has fallen from $40 to $20
65. Revenue per user
Video revenue per customer per month, $
AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DirecTV DISH
Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
65
34. .R Reevveennuueess
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
66. Revenue per user
Broadband revenue per customer per month, $
AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DISH
Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
66
34. .R Reevveennuueess
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
67. Revenue per user
Voice revenue per customer per month, $
AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast
Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
67
34. .R Reevveennuueess
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
68. US Cable, Satellite and
Telco metrics for Q3 2014
Jan Dawson
Chief Analyst
(408) 744-6244
jan@jackdawresearch.com
@jandawson