Theresa May is enjoying a warm honeymoon welcome with the public according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor. More than half (54%) say they are satisfied with Ms May’s performance in her first month as PM while one in five (19%) say they are dissatisfied – leaving her with a net satisfaction score of +35. This is comparable to her predecessor David Cameron’s rating in June 2010 when 57% were satisfied with him doing his job as PM and 26% dissatisfied. Although higher than those of John Major and Gordon Brown in their first month as Prime Minister, May’s satisfaction ratings are still behind Tony Blair’s first month back in May 1997 (65% were satisfied and 5% dissatisfied).

1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORI
August 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. 3Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends
vote in General Elections = 772. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015
GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
Voting Intention
41%
36%
7%
4%
7%
5%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +5 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +11
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
45%
34%
6%
4%
7%
5%

4. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 4
SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS

5. 5Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
22%
30%
48%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
41%
45%
14%
+4%
swing from July 2016
+4%
swing from July 2016
+20.5%
swing from July 2016
+35 Net -33 Net -8 Net -4 Net
SATISFIED 54% SATISFIED 25% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 41%
DISSATISFIED 19% DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 30% DISSATISFIED 45%
54%
19%
27% 25%
58%
17%
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government

6. 6Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – August’16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
MAY CORBYN FARRON
54%
25%
22%

7. 7Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May

8. 8Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Netsatisfaction
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)

9. 9Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 (368 Con supporters)
Theresa May (satisfaction)
54%
19%
27%
August 2016 (All) August 2016 (Conservative supporters)
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 19%
DON’T KNOW 27%
Net = +35
76%
4%
20%
SATISFIED 76%
DISSATISFIED 4%
DON’T KNOW 20%
Net = +72

10. 10Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
25%
58%
17%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
SATISFIED 25%
DISSATISFIED 58%
DON’T KNOW 17%
Net = -33
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
August 2016 September 2015 – August 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

11. 11Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
39%
47%
14%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
SATISFIED 39%
DISSATISFIED 47%
DON’T KNOW 14%
Net = -8
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 301 Labour supporters 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
August 2016 September 2015 – August 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

12. 12Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
22%
30%
48%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 30%
DON’T KNOW 48%
Net = -8
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
August 2016 September 2015 – August 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

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ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

14. 14Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
28%
22%
43%
6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
May-08
Nov-08
May-09
Nov-09
May-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
IMPROVE 28%
STAY THE SAME 22%
GET WORSE 43%
DON’T KNOW 6%
EOI = -15
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Economic Optimism Index
August 2016

15. 15Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan1997
Jun1997
Nov1997
Apr1998
Sep1998
Feb1999
Jul1999
Dec1999
May2000
Oct2000
Mar2001
Aug2001
Jan2002
Jun2002
Nov2002
Apr2003
Sep2003
Feb2004
Jul2004
Dec2004
May2005
Oct2005
Mar2006
Aug2006
Jan2007
Jun2007
Nov2007
Apr2008
Sep2008
Feb2009
Jul2009
Dec2009
May2010
Oct2010
Mar2011
Aug2011
Jan2012
Jun2012
Nov2012
Apr2013
Sep2013
Feb2014
Jul2014
Dec2014
May2015
Oct2015
Mar2016
Aug2016
-15

16. 16Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
AS YOU WILL KNOW, IN JUNE THE UNITED KINGDOM VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION IN A REFERENDUM.
WOULD YOU SAY YOU FEEL MORE OR LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR YOUR OWN PERSONAL FINANCIAL
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS THAN IF THE UK HAD VOTED TO REMAIN, OR HAS IT MADE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase:; 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Confidence in personal finances after EU referendum
13
8
13
11
5
10
13
9
14
13
3
11
44
26
42
28
30
34
12
25
12
20
27
19
15
29
15
22
34
23
3
4
4
6
4
C2DE
ABC1
55+
35-54
18-34
All
MUCH MORE
CONFIDENT
A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT NO DIFFERENT
A LITTLE LESS
CONFIDENT
MUCH LESS
CONFIDENT DON’T KNOW

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© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
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August 2016
POLITICAL MONITOR