This is a presentation given by Dr John Ingram of Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute (ECI) to a Critical Theme organised by the International Institute for Environment and Development on 12 February 2015. Dr Ingram leads the Environmental Change Institute's Food Systems Research and Training Programme, which aims to increase understanding of the interactions between food security and environmental change. The programme's research products have been adopted by national and international organisations, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the UK and Dutch governments. In his presentation, Ingram looked at food system activities and 'planetary boundaries' – the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the earth's biophysical systems. If these planetary boundaries are crossed, then important subsystems, such as a monsoon system, could shift into a new state. Such shifts could have damaging consequences, including undermining the environmental conditions and the natural resource base on which our food security depends. IIED hosts Critical Themes meetings to explore new ideas, introduce new research and broaden the knowledge of its staff. More details: bit.ly/1CkRJ9K.

1. Food Systems, Food Security
and Environmental Change
John Ingram
Food Systems Programme Leader
Environmental Change Institute
University of Oxford

2. Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic
and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to
meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active
and healthy life.
(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)
… is universally applicable
… is more than food production
… is underpinned by food systems

3. Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

4. Source: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015
… which are set within a range of ‘environments’…

5. Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
•Affordability
•Allocation
•Preference
•Nutritional Value
•Social Value
•Food Safety
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
•Production
•Distribution
•Exchange
… ‘Outcomes’ of which underpin food security
“… exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and
social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their
dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”

6. The “Planetary Boundaries” Concept
Climate change
Rate of
biodiversity
loss
Nitrogen
cycle

7. Other ‘Outcomes’ of food system Activities
contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries

8. Example
contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing
food
Processing
& Packaging
food
Distributing
& Retailing
food
Consuming
food
Climate
change
N cycle
P cycle
Fresh water
use
Biodiversity
loss
Atmos.
aerosols
Chemical
pollution
Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries

9. Example
contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing
food
Processing
& Packaging
food
Distributing
& Retailing
food
Consuming
food
Climate
change
GHGs,
albedo
Factory
emissions
Emissions from
transport and
cold chain
GHGs from
cooking
N cycle Eutrophicn,
GHGs
Factory effluent NOx from
transport
Waste
P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste
Fresh water
use
Irrigation Washing,
heating, cooling
Cleaning food Cooking,
cleaning
Biodiversity
loss
Deforestation,
soils, fishing
Paper/card
Metal mining
Invasive spp Consumer
choices
Atmos.
aerosols
Dust Shipping Smoke from
cooking
Chemical
pollution
Pesticides Factory effluent Transport
emissions
Cooking,
cleaning
Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries

10. ?
Food Security, i.e. stability over time
for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
•Production
How do changes in Climate and other Planetary
Boundaries affect Food Security?

11. ?
Food Security, i.e. stability over time
for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
•Affordability
•Allocation
•Preference
•Nutritional Value
•Social Value
•Food Safety
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
•Production
•Distribution
•Exchange
How do changes in Climate and other Planetary
Boundaries affect Food Security?

12. Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability
Poor people tend to spend relatively more of
their income on food, therefore suffer more
when food prices go up
Cost of wheat is 5% of cost of loaf of bread in
USA, but 90% cost of chapati in India

13. Extreme weather also impacts food storage …

14. … and food distribution …

15. • Mycotoxins formed on plant products
in the field or during storage
• Residues of pesticides in plant
products affected by changes in
managing increased pest pressure
• Marine biotoxins in seafood following
production of phycotoxins by harmful
algal blooms
• Pathogenic bacteria in foods during
heat waves.
… and food safety.
Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009

16. Background
But Food Security
is also a major concern
Planetary Boundary concerns are clear

17. Food systems are failing many:
~ 1 billion people hungry
Asia & Pac
~ 650m
SSA
~ 250m
Developed
~ 15m

18. ~ 2 billion people suffer from Vit A, Fe, I, Zn and
other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger”

19. And food systems are also ‘failing’
a further ~2.5 billion of us!
Ng, 2014; AINW, 2014; Public Health England, 2014; Xi et al, 2013
Global: 33% of all adults are
overweight or obese.
Australia: 60% of all adults are
overweight or obese.
England: 19% of Yr 6 children
obese & 14% overweight.
Shanghai: Over 200,000
(14%) children are obese

20. “Dealing with different,
overlapping forms of
malnutrition is the ‘new
normal’.”
“Nearly every country in the
world experiences some
form of malnutrition, and no
country can take good
nutrition for granted.”
“People with good nutrition are key
to sustainable development.”
International Food Policy Research Institute, 2014.

21. Sufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient cals
Sufficient nutrs
currently ~ 3 billion
Excess cals (incl. some
with insufficient nutrs)
currently >2.5 billion
Insufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 1 billion
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic
and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to
meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active
and healthy life.

22. ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop
Productivity Diversity & Quality
Local, Regional & Global Production Activities
farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm
Constraints on dietary choice and diversity
affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
Sufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient cals
Sufficient nutrs
currently ~ 3 billion
Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security
Excess cals (incl. some
with insufficient nutrs)
currently >2.5 billion
CONSUMERS
PRODUCERS
Insufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 1 billion
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
Social,Political,Business,andBiophysicalEnvironments

23. World population, 1950-2100, according to
different projections and variants
World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.
2013: 7.2 billion
2025: 8.1 billion
2050: 9.6 billion
2100: 10.9 billion
Nearly 1 billion more in next 12 years!

24. Looking ahead
$6,000 – $30,000

25. Dietary energy supply increases
as incomes rise …

26. … leading to increases in consumption.
(kcal/person/day)

27. Looking ahead ...
“unless trends are
curbed, half the global
adult population will
be overweight in 15
years time”

28. 1
2200
- Too much - -- Too little --
Billions of people
----- Appropriate amount -----
(indicative; not to scale)
2 3 4 5 76 8 109
2040
2014
2025
kcal/person/day
consumption
------ Too much ------ --- Too little ------- Appropriate amount ----
----------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount ---
Too much -- Too little ------ Appropriate ----
2000
The GHG/CC consequences of meeting this demand with current
food systems and consumption trends are dire
Impacts on non-communicable diseases (e.g. CVD, Type 2
Diabetes) will be massive
Looking ahead ...
US spent $190b on obesity-related health (2005)
Number of hungry could well rise

29. ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop
Productivity Diversity & Quality
Local, Regional & Global Production Activities
farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm
Constraints on dietary choice and diversity
affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
Sufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient cals
Sufficient nutrs
currently ~ 3 billion
Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security
Excess cals (incl. some
with insufficient nutrs)
currently >2.5 billion
CONSUMERS
PRODUCERS
Insufficient cals
Insufficient nutrs
currently ~ 1 billion
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
-----NeedSustainabilityMetrics-----

30. Classic Concept Food System Concept
Social Nutritional
Environmental Environmental
Economic Enterprise
Sustainability Metrics for Food Systems
“Sustainable” ≠ “Environmental” (only)

31. ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities
processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop
Productivity Diversity & Quality
Local, Regional & Global Production Activities
farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …
=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm
PRODUCERS
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security
Hypothesis: % weighting put on sustainability metrics depends on ‘position’ in
food system and world view.
Constraints on dietary choice and diversity
affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
CONSUMERS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nutritional Environment Enterprise
Goal
Producers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nutritional Environment Enterprise
Goal
Value Chain
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Nutritional Environment Enterprise
Goal
Consumers

32. 1. Developing concepts of “food system ecology”
integrating concepts of interconnectivity, community behaviour
and spatial organisation from agroecology and human ecology
=> Food system modelling, AIM, …
2. Enhancing food system governance
linking governance research on complex adaptive systems with
concepts of scale and level
=> CCAFS, Oxfam, SAFGOV, …
3. Improving resource-use efficiency and mitigating waste
assessing opportunities across the whole food system, including
potential impacts of dietary change
=> CIMSANS, SUSFANS, Local Nexus Network, …
Main elements of ECI’s
Food Systems Programme

33. 1. Thinking in terms of ‘food system ecology’
interconnectivity, community behaviour, spatial organisation
Plants
Animals
Environ-
ment
Agroecosystem
Production
ecology
Agroecology/
Productionecology
Humanecology
Individuals
Cultures
Institutions
Social system
‘Foodsystemecology’

34. 2. Governance: part of dynamic food systems
“the mystery of
nature”
Uncertainty about
causes and effects
across scales
Fuzzy, hard to grasp,
persistent
Interrelated dynamic
problems
“the mystery of
human behaviour”
 Many actors involved in
handling, causing and
suffering the problems
 Variations in valuing of,
belief in, felt needs for
solutions
 Dynamic behaviour,
strategic powerplay and
learning processes
Governance

35. DRIVER
Interactions
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Demographics, Economics,
Socio-political context,
Cultural context
Science & Technology
Environmental
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric
Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality,
Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea level
‘Natural’
DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes
Solar cycles
Environmental feedbacks
e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity
Socioeconomic feedbacks
e.g. nutrition, business, political stability
Food
Utilisation
Food
Access
Food
Availability
Food Security
3. Improving Food System Efficiency and Outcomes

36. ECI Food Systems
Programme
? ?

37. Food and Climate Justice
A preliminary study for Oxfam
Christopher Coghlan,Maliha Muzammil,John Ingram,
Friederike Otto, Rachel James and Joost Vervoort

38. Background and purpose
• Seriousness of extreme
weather for vulnerable people
• Concern of frequency and
severity of extremes will
change with changing climate
• Need to consider how extreme
weather events affect the food
security of vulnerable groups
• Need to assess how best to
prepare
Number of people affected by
natural disasters 1900 – 2011
www.emdat.be
Food and Climate Justice

39. Activities
 Selected 4 Case Studies based on range of recent extreme
weather events and impact:
• Heat wave in Russia 2010
• Flooding in Pakistan 2010
• Drought in East Africa 2010-11
• Typhoon in the Philippines 2013
 Assessed who was vulnerable, what was the impact of the
event and why was it so serious
 Assessed relevance of Climate Change
 Drafted scenarios of impacts of even more extreme weather
Food and Climate Justice

40. Nature of Weather Event
Drought Flood Heat Wave Typhoon
Causative Link to
Food Insecurity
(Who) Vulnerable Groups
Income/Assets Urban/Rural
Gender Social Divisions
(What) Impact Pathways
Crops (Food/Cash) Livestock
Work Trade & Markets
(Why) Politics, Policies and Economics
Governance Structures Power Structures
Response & Reconstruction Commodity Prices
Flowchart for Case Study Analysis

41. Overall Conclusions 1
Extreme weather events led directly to significantly higher food
prices
Extreme weather events have played an important role in the
instability of both short- and long-term food security
Extreme temperature and extreme rainfall events are likely to
increase globally over coming decades
Scenarios for more extreme weather point to even greater
impact on the more vulnerable
Food and Climate Justice

42. Overall Conclusions 2
Governments and other policy actors need to adjust to extreme
weather events to help ensure food security:
 craft emergency preparedness programmes
 develop and encourage their populations to subscribe to
insurance schemes
 create funds that can act to restore livelihoods in the
aftermath of extreme weather events
 work with their immediate neighbours on relevant regional
warning measures, infrastructure, and emergency responses.
Food and Climate Justice

43. SAFGOV
Southern African Food Systems Governance
Building a Research Community based on
Stakeholder Dialogue

44. Science
Agencies
Policy
Makers
Resource
Managers
e.g.
NRF,
ICSU-Africa
improved
GEC/food security
science
e.g.
USAID, FAO,
CARE
improved livelihoods &
reduced vulnerability
e.g.
farmers, range
conservation NGOs
improved food security
& nat resource mgmt
e.g.
SADC, national
ministers
improved food
security & env
policies
How can Southern African food system activities and enterprises be improved to
enhance food security and land use outcomes in the face of future challenges?
Natural
Scientists
Social
Scientists
e.g.
• agronomy
• regional hydrology
• land degradation
• biodiversity loss
• climate change
e.g.
• markets and trade
• resource tenure
• institutions
• governance
• social capital
Science Questions
Development
Agencies
Business
Managers
e.g.
purchasers,
processors, retailers
improved food system
efficiency &
sustainability
Key Question and Interested Parties

45. Recognising that …
• Importance of private companies in food
security and land use issues is growing.
• How demand from large purchasers drives
production.

46. SAFGOV project objectives
• To build an community of research skills, closely
linked to a range of stakeholders across southern
Africa’s public and private organisations to study:
1. The effectiveness and adaptiveness of food
system governance arrangements for food
security; and
2. Food systems governance as driver of land use
change and implications for associated
ecosystem services.

47. Demand Signal Material
Material
Consumers
Value Chain
Producers
Government
CivilSociety
Food Sec
Agencies
Nat Resource
Agencies
Input
suppliers
Health Sector
Demand Signal
SAFGOV Actor ‘Map’

48. Initial case study on the
South African Maize Value Chain
• Important staple crop
• Export links, especially regionally
• Maize is used in a variety of forms: food, feed
and even fuel and industrial processes
• Information is readily available