Presentation given to Students from the Netherlands on Masters Programme

1. A random walk through risk management Master’s programme on Risk Management IRM London 5 th February 2010 Dr David Hancock MBA Public Sector Risk Manager of the Year 2008/09

4. Terminal 5 - Heathrow

5. Terminal 5 Project - Where?

6. Terminal 5 Project - Where?

7. Environment – October 1994 Canteen & Welfare Units Cambourne House

9. Risk and Opportunity

12. Problem Solving Problem Solution Gather Data Analyse Data Formulate Solution Implement Solution “ TAME” Problems can be solved by linear or “waterfall” process Time since beginning

14. “ MESSES” meet the following criteria: Organisational Complexity - clusters of interrelated or interdependent problems, or systems of problems. Messes are puzzles; rather than solving them we resolve their complexities. Cannot be solved in relative isolation from one another .

16. “ WICKED PROBLEMS ” are characterised by: An evolving set of interlocking issues and constraints - no definitive statement of the problem (no understanding of the problem until the solution has been developed). Many stakeholders - the problem solving process is fundamentally social (getting the right answer is not as important as having stakeholders accept the solution). The constraints (resources, politics) change with time - stakeholders come and go, change their minds or change the rules. Since there is no definitive Problem there is no definitive Solution .

17. Time since beginning “ WICKED” Problems cannot be solved by linear or “waterfall” process Problem Solution

18. Wicked Problem Solving Resolving “ WICKED MESSES ” is “ SATISFICING ” (H. Simon 1956) Because of the number of stakeholders, changing constraints and dynamics of the problem, there is no ideal solution-it is “as good as it gets” or “good enough” The Problem solving process ends when resource (time, money energy etc.) runs out! Therefore we need a different approach when handling risk with respect to problems which are not Tame

19. Boston Matrix Behavioural Complexity High Low Wicked Wicked Mess Tame Mess Resolution is social/ political/ ethical/ moral/ behavioural Solution is Scientific Dynamic Systems Complexity High Low

21. Risk Management

22. Risk and the Contract

23. T5 Agreement

24. Risk and Reward

25. Risk Management at the London Development Agency

26. The LDA is part of the GLA Group led by the Mayor of London

28. Public Goods, Public Choice, Public Value

31. The performance management framework has moved to a process of negotiation which is changing the relationship and the dynamic between central and local government. Central government has responded by attempting to adopt a more citizen-focussed and community-centred approach to public policy. What does this mean?

34. What does a successful audit and risk management programme look like?

35. Risk Management & Governance Governance Accountability Openness & inclusivity Integrity Effectiveness Risk management Internal control systems Decision making

36. The need for holistic thinking I’m glad the hole isn’t in our end!

37. Corporate Risk register

38. CRR and Audit Plan

40. London Underground

41. Our Vision A World Class Tube for a World Class City Our Strategy To combine a reliable train service with the highest standards of customer care that we take from our heritage Our Challenge Keeping London Moving while Transforming the Tube

43. The Shape of delivery - Programmes Core Asset Renewal and Upgrades Capability and Enablers Victoria Line Upgrade Jubilee & Northern Line Upgrade Piccadilly Line Upgrade Major Power Upgrades SSL Line Upgrade Cooling the Tube Accessibility Station Congestion Relief Operational Accommodation Station Modernisation & Refurbishment Crossrail / Thameslink Asset Renewal Information Management Company Management System OCR Periodic Review Customer Service Improvement Project Capability and Control People Strategy Health & Safety Operational Improvement Asset Management Capability Commercial Transformation Maintenance Capability Environment & Climate Change Industrial Relations Stakeholder Engagement

44. Stage Gate Reviews

45. Baseline

46. Risk and Contingency

47. Some thoughts on the Way Forward Training and development which produces: practitioners who can follow detailed procedures and techniques, prescribed by risk management methods and tools. From: Practitioners as Trained Technicians Learning and development which facilitates: development of reflective practitioners who operate and adapt effectively in complex environments, through experience, intuition pragmatic application of theory in practice. Towards: Practitioners as Reflective Practitioners From: Risk Management as Instrumental Processes The instrumental lifecycle image of risk management as a linear sequence of tasks to be performed on an objective entity ‘out there’, using codified knowledge, procedures and techniques, and based on an image of projects as temporary apolitical production processes. Concepts and images which focus interaction among people, illuminating: the flux and human action, and the framing of the risk profession) within an array of social agenda, stakeholder relations, politics and power. Towards: Risk Management as Social Processes

48. “ When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail ” . Japanese Proverb “ Successful problem solving requires finding the right solution to the right problem. We fail more often because we solve the wrong problem than because we get the wrong solution to the right problem”. Russell Ackoff, 1974

49. “ We're better at predicting events at the edge of the galaxy or inside the nucleus of an atom than whether it'll rain on auntie's garden party three Sundays from now. Because the problem turns out to be different. We can't even predict the next drip from a dripping tap when it gets irregular. It's the best possible time to be alive, when almost everything you thought you knew is wrong”. Arcadia by Tom Stoppard