Many of the stories you've heard about the Great Recession often involve the plight of college graduates, or stories about how men and women have fared differently in the recession and recovery. The media have even created a new vocabulary to describe these differences, such as "Man-cession" and "Man-covery." But the evidence suggests that differences in education better explain how Americans have fared in these difficult economic times. In The College Advantage, we argue that college degrees have served as protection for Americans seeking shelter during a tough economic storm.
2. Overview
• Almost half of the jobs lost in the recession have been
recovered, and virtually all of those jobs required some
form of postsecondary education.
• The wage advantage for workers with a Bachelor’s
degree or better over high school has remained high.
• The wage premium for Bachelor’s degrees or better
relative to high school degrees skyrocketed from 44
percent in 1981 to 100 percent in 2005. It has only
fallen to 97 percent since the beginning of the
recession.
3. Unemployment rates for college graduates have stayed
low relative to those with a high school diploma
Bachelor’s
degree
High
school
diploma
All
graduates
4.5
9.4
Recent
graduates
6.8
24
Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (2007-2012). Employment includes all
workers aged 18 and older.
4. Workers with a high school diploma or less bore the
brunt of the recession’s job losses
Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (2007-2012). Employment includes all
workers aged 18 and older.
* Recession – The period from December 2007 to January 2010.
** Recovery – The period from January 2010 to February 2012.
*** Net Change – The period from December 2007 to February 2012.
Educa4on
A7ainment
Job
Change
Recession*
Recovery**
Net
Change***
High
School
or
Less
-‐5,611,000
-‐230,000
-‐5,841,000
Some
College/AA
degree
-‐1,752,000
1,592,000
-‐160,000
BA
degree
or
beGer
187,000
2,012,000
2,199,000
All
-‐7,176,000
3,374,000
-‐3,802,000
5. The growth in employment in the past two decades has
been entirely due to increases in college-educated workers
-‐4%
-‐14%
41%
42%
74%
82%
-‐20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-‐89
Jan-‐90
Jan-‐91
Jan-‐92
Jan-‐93
Jan-‐94
Jan-‐95
Jan-‐96
Jan-‐97
Jan-‐98
Jan-‐99
Jan-‐00
Jan-‐01
Jan-‐02
Jan-‐03
Jan-‐04
Jan-‐05
Jan-‐06
Jan-‐07
Jan-‐08
Jan-‐09
Jan-‐10
Jan-‐11
Jan-‐12
Percent
change
in
employment
from
Jan.1989
(%)
Recession
High
school
or
less
Associate's
degree
or
some
college
Bachelor's
degree
or
beGer
Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (1989-2012). Employment includes
all workers aged 18 and older.
6. Earnings of workers with a Bachelor’s degree or better
are still nearly twice that of high school educated workers
54%
44%
100%
97%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
College
earnings
premium
(in
percent)
Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (1970-2010). Employment includes
all workers aged 18 and older.
7. College enrollment for Fall 2010 exceeded the projection
by 12 percent
Source:
Total
fall
enrollment
in
all
postsecondary
degree-‐granPng
insPtuPons
is
obtained
from
Integrated
Postsecondary
Educa1on
Data
System
(IPEDS)
data
made
available
through
the
U.S.
Department
of
EducaPon.
Actual,
21,016
Projected,
18,746
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Postsecondary
enrollment
(in
thousands)
Actual
Projected
8. Postsecondary enrollment skyrocketed in the recession
and has plummeted since then
4.3%
1.2%
6.9%
2.9%
-‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Recession
Fall
enrollment
gorwth
rate
Source: Total fall enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions is obtained from Digest of Education
Statistics 2011, published by the National Center for Education Statistics.
9. Since the recession, male postsecondary enrollment has
grown faster than female enrollment
Source:
Total
fall
enrollment
in
all
postsecondary
degree-‐granPng
insPtuPons
is
obtained
from
Digest
of
Educa1on
Sta1s1cs
2011,
published
by
the
NaPonal
Center
for
EducaPon
StaPsPcs.
3.5%
7.1%
4.9%
6.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2002
2009
Postsecondaryenrollmentgrowthrate
Male
Female
10. Conclusion
• The rate of college enrollment jumped sharply,
peaking in 2009, but has fallen off rapidly since then.
• The recession was a college wake-up-call for men.
• After lagging behind for decades, since 2006, the rate
of increase in male enrollment has caught up and
slightly surpassed the rate of increase in female
enrollment.
11. For more information:
See the full report at: cew.georgetown.edu/CollegeAdvantage/
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