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The College Advantage:
Weathering The Economic Storm
By: Anthony P. Carnevale, Tamara Jayasundera, Ban Cheah
August 15, 2012
Overview
•  Almost half of the jobs lost in the recession have been
recovered, and virtually all of those jobs required some
form of postsecondary education.
•  The wage advantage for workers with a Bachelor’s
degree or better over high school has remained high.
•  The wage premium for Bachelor’s degrees or better
relative to high school degrees skyrocketed from 44
percent in 1981 to 100 percent in 2005. It has only
fallen to 97 percent since the beginning of the
recession.
Unemployment rates for college graduates have stayed
low relative to those with a high school diploma
Bachelor’s	
  degree	
   High	
  school	
  diploma	
  
All	
  graduates	
  
	
  
4.5	
   9.4	
  
Recent	
  graduates	
   6.8	
   24	
  
Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (2007-2012). Employment includes all
workers aged 18 and older.
Workers with a high school diploma or less bore the
brunt of the recession’s job losses
Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (2007-2012). Employment includes all
workers aged 18 and older.
* Recession – The period from December 2007 to January 2010.
** Recovery – The period from January 2010 to February 2012.
*** Net Change – The period from December 2007 to February 2012.
	
  
Educa4on	
  A7ainment	
  
Job	
  Change	
  
Recession*	
   Recovery**	
   Net	
  Change***	
  
	
  High	
  School	
  or	
  Less	
   -­‐5,611,000	
   -­‐230,000	
   -­‐5,841,000	
  
	
  Some	
  College/AA	
  degree	
   -­‐1,752,000	
   1,592,000	
   -­‐160,000	
  
	
  BA	
  degree	
  or	
  beGer	
   187,000	
   2,012,000	
   2,199,000	
  
	
  All	
   -­‐7,176,000	
   3,374,000	
   -­‐3,802,000	
  
The growth in employment in the past two decades has
been entirely due to increases in college-educated workers
-­‐4%	
  
-­‐14%	
  
41%	
   42%	
  
74%	
  
82%	
  
-­‐20%	
  
0%	
  
20%	
  
40%	
  
60%	
  
80%	
  
100%	
  
Jan-­‐89	
  
Jan-­‐90	
  
Jan-­‐91	
  
Jan-­‐92	
  
Jan-­‐93	
  
Jan-­‐94	
  
Jan-­‐95	
  
Jan-­‐96	
  
Jan-­‐97	
  
Jan-­‐98	
  
Jan-­‐99	
  
Jan-­‐00	
  
Jan-­‐01	
  
Jan-­‐02	
  
Jan-­‐03	
  
Jan-­‐04	
  
Jan-­‐05	
  
Jan-­‐06	
  
Jan-­‐07	
  
Jan-­‐08	
  
Jan-­‐09	
  
Jan-­‐10	
  
Jan-­‐11	
  
Jan-­‐12	
  
Percent	
  change	
  in	
  employment	
  from	
  
Jan.1989	
  (%)	
  
Recession	
  
High	
  school	
  or	
  less	
  
Associate's	
  degree	
  or	
  some	
  college	
  
Bachelor's	
  degree	
  or	
  beGer	
  
Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (1989-2012). Employment includes
all workers aged 18 and older.
Earnings of workers with a Bachelor’s degree or better
are still nearly twice that of high school educated workers
54%	
  
44%	
  
100%	
  
97%	
  
40%	
  
50%	
  
60%	
  
70%	
  
80%	
  
90%	
  
100%	
  
1970	
  
1971	
  
1972	
  
1973	
  
1974	
  
1975	
  
1976	
  
1977	
  
1978	
  
1979	
  
1980	
  
1981	
  
1982	
  
1983	
  
1984	
  
1985	
  
1986	
  
1987	
  
1988	
  
1989	
  
1990	
  
1991	
  
1992	
  
1993	
  
1994	
  
1995	
  
1996	
  
1997	
  
1998	
  
1999	
  
2000	
  
2001	
  
2002	
  
2003	
  
2004	
  
2005	
  
2006	
  
2007	
  
2008	
  
2009	
  
2010	
  
College	
  earnings	
  premium	
  (in	
  percent)	
  
Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (1970-2010). Employment includes
all workers aged 18 and older.
College enrollment for Fall 2010 exceeded the projection
by 12 percent
Source:	
  Total	
  fall	
  enrollment	
  in	
  all	
  postsecondary	
  degree-­‐granPng	
  insPtuPons	
  is	
  obtained	
  from	
  Integrated	
  Postsecondary	
  
Educa1on	
  Data	
  System	
  (IPEDS)	
  data	
  made	
  available	
  through	
  the	
  U.S.	
  Department	
  of	
  EducaPon.	
  	
  
Actual,	
  21,016	
  
Projected,	
  18,746	
  
14,000	
  
15,000	
  
16,000	
  
17,000	
  
18,000	
  
19,000	
  
20,000	
  
21,000	
  
22,000	
  
1995	
   1996	
   1997	
   1998	
   1999	
   2000	
   2001	
   2002	
   2003	
   2004	
   2005	
   2006	
   2007	
   2008	
   2009	
   2010	
  
Postsecondary	
  enrollment	
  (in	
  thousands)	
  
Actual	
  
Projected	
  
Postsecondary enrollment skyrocketed in the recession
and has plummeted since then
4.3%	
  
1.2%	
  
6.9%	
  
2.9%	
  
-­‐2%	
  
0%	
  
2%	
  
4%	
  
6%	
  
8%	
  
10%	
  
1966	
  1968	
  1970	
  1972	
  1974	
  1976	
  1978	
  1980	
  1982	
  1984	
  1986	
  1988	
  1990	
  1992	
  1994	
  1996	
  1998	
  2000	
  2002	
  2004	
  2006	
  2008	
  2010	
  
Recession	
   Fall	
  enrollment	
  gorwth	
  rate	
  
Source: Total fall enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions is obtained from Digest of Education
Statistics 2011, published by the National Center for Education Statistics.
Since the recession, male postsecondary enrollment has
grown faster than female enrollment
Source:	
  Total	
  fall	
  enrollment	
  in	
  all	
  postsecondary	
  degree-­‐granPng	
  insPtuPons	
  is	
  obtained	
  from	
  Digest	
  of	
  
Educa1on	
  Sta1s1cs	
  2011,	
  published	
  by	
  the	
  NaPonal	
  Center	
  for	
  EducaPon	
  StaPsPcs.	
  
3.5%	
  
7.1%	
  
4.9%	
  
6.8%	
  
0%	
  
1%	
  
2%	
  
3%	
  
4%	
  
5%	
  
6%	
  
7%	
  
8%	
  
2002	
   2009	
  
Postsecondaryenrollmentgrowthrate
Male	
  
Female	
  
Conclusion
•  The rate of college enrollment jumped sharply,
peaking in 2009, but has fallen off rapidly since then.
•  The recession was a college wake-up-call for men.
•  After lagging behind for decades, since 2006, the rate
of increase in male enrollment has caught up and
slightly surpassed the rate of increase in female
enrollment.
For more information:
See the full report at: cew.georgetown.edu/CollegeAdvantage/
	
  
Email Us | cewgeorgetown@georgetown.edu
Follow Us on Twitter | @GeorgetownCEW
Find Us on Facebook | Facebook.com/GeorgetownCEW
Follow Us on LinkedIn | linkedin.com/company/georgetowncew

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The College Advantage: Weathering the Economic Storm

  • 1. The College Advantage: Weathering The Economic Storm By: Anthony P. Carnevale, Tamara Jayasundera, Ban Cheah August 15, 2012
  • 2. Overview •  Almost half of the jobs lost in the recession have been recovered, and virtually all of those jobs required some form of postsecondary education. •  The wage advantage for workers with a Bachelor’s degree or better over high school has remained high. •  The wage premium for Bachelor’s degrees or better relative to high school degrees skyrocketed from 44 percent in 1981 to 100 percent in 2005. It has only fallen to 97 percent since the beginning of the recession.
  • 3. Unemployment rates for college graduates have stayed low relative to those with a high school diploma Bachelor’s  degree   High  school  diploma   All  graduates     4.5   9.4   Recent  graduates   6.8   24   Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (2007-2012). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older.
  • 4. Workers with a high school diploma or less bore the brunt of the recession’s job losses Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (2007-2012). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older. * Recession – The period from December 2007 to January 2010. ** Recovery – The period from January 2010 to February 2012. *** Net Change – The period from December 2007 to February 2012.   Educa4on  A7ainment   Job  Change   Recession*   Recovery**   Net  Change***    High  School  or  Less   -­‐5,611,000   -­‐230,000   -­‐5,841,000    Some  College/AA  degree   -­‐1,752,000   1,592,000   -­‐160,000    BA  degree  or  beGer   187,000   2,012,000   2,199,000    All   -­‐7,176,000   3,374,000   -­‐3,802,000  
  • 5. The growth in employment in the past two decades has been entirely due to increases in college-educated workers -­‐4%   -­‐14%   41%   42%   74%   82%   -­‐20%   0%   20%   40%   60%   80%   100%   Jan-­‐89   Jan-­‐90   Jan-­‐91   Jan-­‐92   Jan-­‐93   Jan-­‐94   Jan-­‐95   Jan-­‐96   Jan-­‐97   Jan-­‐98   Jan-­‐99   Jan-­‐00   Jan-­‐01   Jan-­‐02   Jan-­‐03   Jan-­‐04   Jan-­‐05   Jan-­‐06   Jan-­‐07   Jan-­‐08   Jan-­‐09   Jan-­‐10   Jan-­‐11   Jan-­‐12   Percent  change  in  employment  from   Jan.1989  (%)   Recession   High  school  or  less   Associate's  degree  or  some  college   Bachelor's  degree  or  beGer   Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (1989-2012). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older.
  • 6. Earnings of workers with a Bachelor’s degree or better are still nearly twice that of high school educated workers 54%   44%   100%   97%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%   1970   1971   1972   1973   1974   1975   1976   1977   1978   1979   1980   1981   1982   1983   1984   1985   1986   1987   1988   1989   1990   1991   1992   1993   1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   College  earnings  premium  (in  percent)   Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (1970-2010). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older.
  • 7. College enrollment for Fall 2010 exceeded the projection by 12 percent Source:  Total  fall  enrollment  in  all  postsecondary  degree-­‐granPng  insPtuPons  is  obtained  from  Integrated  Postsecondary   Educa1on  Data  System  (IPEDS)  data  made  available  through  the  U.S.  Department  of  EducaPon.     Actual,  21,016   Projected,  18,746   14,000   15,000   16,000   17,000   18,000   19,000   20,000   21,000   22,000   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   Postsecondary  enrollment  (in  thousands)   Actual   Projected  
  • 8. Postsecondary enrollment skyrocketed in the recession and has plummeted since then 4.3%   1.2%   6.9%   2.9%   -­‐2%   0%   2%   4%   6%   8%   10%   1966  1968  1970  1972  1974  1976  1978  1980  1982  1984  1986  1988  1990  1992  1994  1996  1998  2000  2002  2004  2006  2008  2010   Recession   Fall  enrollment  gorwth  rate   Source: Total fall enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions is obtained from Digest of Education Statistics 2011, published by the National Center for Education Statistics.
  • 9. Since the recession, male postsecondary enrollment has grown faster than female enrollment Source:  Total  fall  enrollment  in  all  postsecondary  degree-­‐granPng  insPtuPons  is  obtained  from  Digest  of   Educa1on  Sta1s1cs  2011,  published  by  the  NaPonal  Center  for  EducaPon  StaPsPcs.   3.5%   7.1%   4.9%   6.8%   0%   1%   2%   3%   4%   5%   6%   7%   8%   2002   2009   Postsecondaryenrollmentgrowthrate Male   Female  
  • 10. Conclusion •  The rate of college enrollment jumped sharply, peaking in 2009, but has fallen off rapidly since then. •  The recession was a college wake-up-call for men. •  After lagging behind for decades, since 2006, the rate of increase in male enrollment has caught up and slightly surpassed the rate of increase in female enrollment.
  • 11. For more information: See the full report at: cew.georgetown.edu/CollegeAdvantage/   Email Us | cewgeorgetown@georgetown.edu Follow Us on Twitter | @GeorgetownCEW Find Us on Facebook | Facebook.com/GeorgetownCEW Follow Us on LinkedIn | linkedin.com/company/georgetowncew