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The Summer Surge in
College Unemployment:
Why It Happens and What You Can Do About It
Anthony P Carnevale, Ban Cheah, and Artem Gulish
August 13, 2013
Overview
•  Nearly every summer, the influx of college graduates into
the job market causes a bump in the unemployment rate,
and reawakens the debate regarding the value of college
education.
•  It is often overlooked that unemployment among recent
college graduates has a strong seasonal component.
Cyclical Unemployment
•  Every year, recent college graduates experience cyclical
patterns in unemployment.
•  Unemployment increases at the beginning of every
summer.
•  Unemployment
decreases every fall.
Seasonal Component
•  In 2013, the number of new Bachelor’s degree
graduates entering the labor market was 1.7 million.
•  Each summer, these new college graduates annually
increase the number of young (ages 22-26) Bachelor’s
degree holders in the labor force by about 17 percent.
•  Unemployment of recent graduates increases by about
1 percentage point during the summer months
compared to the average annual unemployment rate.
The Great Recession
•  While unemployment among recent college graduates
increased during the recession, recent college
graduates still have lower unemployment rates than
the workforce overall, and substantially lower
unemployment rates than their less-educated peers.
•  The annual unemployment rate among recent
Bachelor’s degree graduates grew from 3.8 percent in
2007 to 7.5 percent in 2010.
•  The rate fell to 6 percent in 2012 as the economy
began to recover.
Impact of the Great Recession
•  Following the recession in 2010, the annual
unemployment rate peaked at:
–  11.1 percent for young adults with some college or an
Associate’s degree
–  16.8 percent for those with high school diploma
–  24.4 percent for high school dropouts
–  7.5 percent for recent college graduates with a Bachelor’s
degree.
Annual Unemployment Rate for
Young Adults
Conclusion
•  If the recovery holds, there will be another 19.4 million
job openings for people with four-year college degrees
over the next 10 years.
•  The study confirms that recent college graduates can feel
a little more optimistic about their prospects as the
recovery continues.
For more information:
See the full report at: cew.georgetown.edu/SummerSurge	
  
Email Us | cewgeorgetown@georgetown.edu
Follow Us on Twitter | @GeorgetownCEW
Find Us on Facebook | Facebook.com/GeorgetownCEW
Follow Us on LinkedIn | linkedin.com/company/georgetowncew

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The Summer Surge in College Unemployment

  • 1. The Summer Surge in College Unemployment: Why It Happens and What You Can Do About It Anthony P Carnevale, Ban Cheah, and Artem Gulish August 13, 2013
  • 2. Overview •  Nearly every summer, the influx of college graduates into the job market causes a bump in the unemployment rate, and reawakens the debate regarding the value of college education. •  It is often overlooked that unemployment among recent college graduates has a strong seasonal component.
  • 3. Cyclical Unemployment •  Every year, recent college graduates experience cyclical patterns in unemployment. •  Unemployment increases at the beginning of every summer. •  Unemployment decreases every fall.
  • 4. Seasonal Component •  In 2013, the number of new Bachelor’s degree graduates entering the labor market was 1.7 million. •  Each summer, these new college graduates annually increase the number of young (ages 22-26) Bachelor’s degree holders in the labor force by about 17 percent. •  Unemployment of recent graduates increases by about 1 percentage point during the summer months compared to the average annual unemployment rate.
  • 5. The Great Recession •  While unemployment among recent college graduates increased during the recession, recent college graduates still have lower unemployment rates than the workforce overall, and substantially lower unemployment rates than their less-educated peers. •  The annual unemployment rate among recent Bachelor’s degree graduates grew from 3.8 percent in 2007 to 7.5 percent in 2010. •  The rate fell to 6 percent in 2012 as the economy began to recover.
  • 6. Impact of the Great Recession •  Following the recession in 2010, the annual unemployment rate peaked at: –  11.1 percent for young adults with some college or an Associate’s degree –  16.8 percent for those with high school diploma –  24.4 percent for high school dropouts –  7.5 percent for recent college graduates with a Bachelor’s degree.
  • 7. Annual Unemployment Rate for Young Adults
  • 8. Conclusion •  If the recovery holds, there will be another 19.4 million job openings for people with four-year college degrees over the next 10 years. •  The study confirms that recent college graduates can feel a little more optimistic about their prospects as the recovery continues.
  • 9. For more information: See the full report at: cew.georgetown.edu/SummerSurge   Email Us | cewgeorgetown@georgetown.edu Follow Us on Twitter | @GeorgetownCEW Find Us on Facebook | Facebook.com/GeorgetownCEW Follow Us on LinkedIn | linkedin.com/company/georgetowncew